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Your good jw246802005, no reason for you to delete anything unless you feel it is best for the board. I deleted my post until I can sit down and add the correct dates and post it again to minimize confusion.
As a future reference to delete a post. Go to the bottom of the posts page. Hit the "Report TOS Violation" button and in the comment box add "Author Request"
rain
Again, I apologize for not being more clear. That this original post was back on Sept 16
I edited in a line explaining this, but did not upload the correction. My bad.
I requested it be deleted and I'll re post with dates added.
Apologies for not being more clear. This was a re post of my calculations for Q2 from a previous conversation.
I'll re post with dates added. I requested the post be deleted to eliminate confusion.
I edited in a line explaining this, but did not upload the correction. My bad.
Q2 earnings had June as the first full month of Covid-19 test kit sales and was record breaking.
Q3 will be the first full quarter of Covid-19 test kit sales and will also be record breaking.
Q4 will be the first quarter with both the Covid-19 Healgen test kit sales as well as the CODX PCR test kit. I would expect this to be the third record breaking Quarter.
With the Healgen test alone, IMO Q4 will outperform as test kits of all types were still unavailable in quantities needed.
The third quarter is when the rapid tests became "acceptable" and were even promoted. Since the news media is running about two months behind reality, this should be great for $ABMC.
I do not understand. Are you implying:
That $ABMC Q3 Covid-19 test kit sales are lower than Q2?
I did several very detailed numbers calculations since the release of Q2 earnings. Help me see what I missed.
I also expect another record breaking quarter to be announced Q3 and again for Q4.
Thanks geocam. Can we get you nominated for director?
Why was the $ABMC run in June nonsensical if I saw then exactly what you and I see now? This company should never have dropped support at .70 and should be trading above that level today.
Don't financials support my statement?
Even Q2 numbers with only one full month of Healgen test sales support $.70
It is the flippers that sold above those price levels, totally understandable and a great move for them. They'll be back when the time is right.
It is also indisputable that management caused many longs to sell below higher support levels bringing us back to $.20.
Now it is all up to them to bring us back to $1.00+ if they want to add value to the company. Maybe there is some reason they want shares this low. Do they want to accumulate more shares themselves? Maybe we will learn the reason, maybe not.
I have been here for 8 months never sold a share and recently added to my position. But, I scratch my head every morning trying to figure out why there is no PR, no updates, no guidance.
This is what $ABMC loses at these low prices:
-Credit is more difficult to get and more expensive.
-Secondary share offerings are more expensive to raise additional capital- it takes a more shares to raise the same amount of capital when needed.
-The company will not offer shareholders as much value in case of a takeover and is more vulnerable to hostile take overs if undervalued.
-Falling price makes shareholders unhappy - they will vote management out.
-it is more difficult to acquire other companies.
I just can't figure it.
I found your post interesting justbecause516. Thanks
So I did some quick DD and this is fake news. BUT, I noticed the chart and indicators to be almost identical to $ABMC. So ABMC is ready to do a 100% move again, and it will be soon.
From years of experience I have selected several indicators that are as forward looking as is possible. I am a divergence seeker. Looking for investments where share price is in a hurt, but accumulation is happening. So $ABMC fits the bill, but I see that the only real difference between $ABMC and this $RLTR, is lack of volume.
Unfortunately, this has been our problem Since July and what put us back in the .20's. No clue who is holding us back at this time, but they are professional. When they are ready to let it go. Hold on. We will see a move like $RLTR had today.
I'm feeling it. It can't be explained, but I'm all in with $ABMC here.
Healthcare ETF's are again nearing 52 week highs as I called a turn around for this sector coming this week.
The $NBI, $XBI, $ARKG, $PTH are all moving upwards on volume.
My tracking list of 39 testing companies are up 30 companies vs 9 down at the time of this post. Again, being led by $ABMC.
The best 30 day charts across the board are $ABMC, $TMO, $DHR, $HOLX, $LH for any testing companies.
Several of these large caps are nearing their 52 week highs, outperforming $ABMC for the year.
#COVID-19 is increasing sales across the sector with $ABMC clearly the largest percentage gain winner.
Most companies have been languishing, moving laterally or even down trending.
Most importantly, it is great your son did not have to go through the negative symptoms of C-19 and that he was not a spreader.
Thanks for the update on the use of the Healgen test.
Let's remind ourselves that $ABMC had record Q2 revenues and certainly Q3 with another record net revenues because they distribute the Healgen rapid test.
The Healgen test is still top five in the world for accuracy even with all recent advancements in testing.
Until an at home saliva test that can be read on the spot is developed, management has selected two of the best tests available.
Healgen rapid test
CODX PCR test.
300-400% gain when we hit $1.00+ in this market is very forward thinking.
The traders that are sitting on their hands will be slapping themselves on the forehead soon when they see $ABMC moving to new highs.
$ABMC is exactly the niche company we have all been looking for, isn't it? Increasing sales in a falling market! Just an incredible opportunity.
Yes $ABMC being green on red days is the divergence we are looking for.
With the record earnings report due within a few weeks investors have leaned that today is the time to get in.
News is getting around that the small float will not allow buyers to wait the day before earnings to buy as they did for the Q2 jump.
Record Revenues for Q2 Posted by $ABMC
Increasing Record Revenues for Q3 projected.
Millions of dollars of the Healgen rapid test have become the companies foundation product.
The addition of the $CODX test has brought in sales for the PCR testing market which is in huge and increasing demand.
The increase of #COVID-19 cases is increasing the demand for all tests which continue to be in short supply.
The $ABMC business plan allows the company to be nimble, distributing or possibly manufacturing products needed today. Dropping products as they become obsolete. Many companies in the C-19 niche of testing, vaccines etc are locked into their own product and huge investments for infrastructure. $ABMC can move laterally or vertically as need arises.
The obvious life cycle of the the Corona Virus shows that there is no long lasting vaccine. Testing will be required for many years to come.
A short term vaccine will be required to be taken by international travelers, those working in close proximity, sports teams, those who can not afford to get ill twice per year. Testing will still be required by all.
All of the large cap NASDAQ and NYSE Covid-19 testing company labs, distributors and manufactures are beating earnings projections for Q3.
I believe $ABMC is the only legitimate company in the OTC in this niche and they are using GAAP accounting for filings.
Record net earnings and revenues are projected for Q3.
I'll project possible share price of $1-1.50 by end of year and easily $2.00+ into 2021.
Quest Diagnostics Says Demand For Covid-19 Testing To Continue Well Into 2021
This lab testing company has record earning and record profits. Guidance is increased for 2021.
$ABMC has no where to go but up!
The $ABMC 30 day, 15 minute chart is showing quiet accumulation. Low volume continues to confuse with the incredible upside we have. Positive net earnings have already been shown in Q2.
Technical picture shows long smart money coming in. Any positive PR will shake the MM's up a bit as clearly seen here and continuing upward price spikes.
Very important point.
I also have a few corrections for your corrections.
Thanks for clearing this up.
We should be OK.
The volume on Wednesday the 7th broke a 6 month declining volume trend that began in March when we had our largest volume days.
$ABMC's potential first became known in March. The last Q verified that our analysis was correct.
I personally have not seen anything remotely similar to how this company trades. It is totally confusing.
No clue what you are saying?
I have 34 companies on my watchlist that are involved with Covid-19 test kits and not one compares to $ABMC's potential.
Many on my list are real losers and a few are high fliers only because they are already NASDAQ or NYSE listed.
None will have the net profit margins $ABMC will show for Q3 or Q4.
It is also clear accumulation has begun again.
DECN's test from Korea has advertised sales only, no product is yet available.
Excellent results as expected. Following Q over Q will show a very profitable bottom line for $PURE with share price tripling. I did a projection earlier this year of a 300% gain from these price levels.
As mentioned the Corona virus is here to stay, but the increase in sales for the Food Processing and Manufacturing industries is not for Covid-19. It is for safety to prevent many other food born illnesses.
PURE just needed the unfortunate occurrence of C-19 to open it up to the market. Now sales will continue from here.
So if $ABMC is a distributor with clients across the US, Central America and Europe.
OralDNA® Labs is an end user and received the EUA allowing testing from a saline oral rinse collection.
What other clients are known?
The Logix Smart™ COVID-19 kit in their FDA authorized OraRisk® COVID-19 RT-PCR test, recently received an amended Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) allowing testing from a saline oral rinse collection.
My personal Covid-19 test kit company ETF of 34 stocks gained 3.1% today, led by $ABMC with a close at $.265 and gain of 65.63%.
When the top gainer and top loser is removed this list gained 1.55%
All around positive for the industry and exceptional for $ABMC.
$CODX granting $ABMC the right to market and sell the Logix Smart Covid-19 tests
ABMC to Distribute Co-Diagnostics Inc. EUA Issued Logix Smart(TM) Covid-19 Test
October 7, 2020
KINDERHOOK, NY American Bio Medica Corporation (OTC PINK:ABMC) today announced they have signed a distribution agreement with Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (CODX) granting ABMC the right to market and sell the Logix Smart Covid-19 tests in the United States on a non-exclusive basis.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abmc-distribute-co-diagnostics-inc-142500064.html
$ABMC 75% on the news with highest volume since June. TY CODX
.20's on the way with the first solid buy action since June.
$ABMC has had several fake buy days and several fake bottoms in recent months which failed due to lack of support. However, it is obvious the bottom is officially in.
Today's positive price action is more than a PR with CODX. No expected sales revenues were announced, no contract size announced. So where did all this interest come from?
Today's action must be a concerted effort from a buyers group to get things moving again. Perhaps even shorts covering. Retail is just sprinkled in.
All in all, the downtrend is broken today. Let's see what kind of volatility we see in price range next week. Exciting times ahead.
JMO
Glad you decided to take care of that in time! @Bobinsd
I broke this news back in June and it remains unchanged.
This is one of the verifying articles that kept the longs hanging around.
https://www.hudsonvalley360.com/news/columbiacounty/county-satisfied-with-antibody-tests/article_00f4dff5-35c4-5214-bb59-462a2d8a6db3.html
We are happy to report that the rapid test kits tested in the [CMH] lab proved to be 100% accurate when compared to the existing lab testing equipment,” Kaiser said.
The Healgen antibody testing kits distributed by American Bio Medica received FDA authorization on May 29, and the county placed its order for 1,000 soon after.
The test has top marks for both sensitivity and specificity, meaning it detects the correct antibodies with a high level of accuracy, as shown by the emergency authorization from the FDA, Waterhouse said.
American Bio Medica’s Healgen antibody kits can be sold only to laboratories that meet federal regulatory standards, which led health officials to partner with Columbia Memorial Health to purchase the kits.
From another previous post. I have done more hours of research on these products than I wish to admit.
Thought this was interesting from Business Insider a few days ago. I am sure this is common knowledge here but will post anyway. Should be a good week.
A new study evaluated the accuracy of more than 60 coronavirus antibody tests. 13 were a cut above the rest.
High-performing tests had very few false positives
The top 13 antibody tests in the independent review had both high sensitivity and specificity.
The rapid test from Healgen was one of the few tests with 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity — but those results were only for IgM antibodies.
Coronavirus antibody tests target three types of antibodies: immunoglobulin M (IgM), immunoglobulin G (IgG), and immunoglobulin A. Our bodies typically make IgM first in response to a viral infection, so these antibody levels tend to peak earlier than the rest. IgG is the most common antibody found in blood and usually a better indicator of long-term immunity. Most coronavirus antibody tests focus on these two antibodies as opposed to IgA, which is found mainly in the respiratory and digestive tracts.
The Healgen test for IgG antibodies had 96.7% sensitivity and 97.5% specificity. Both of the company's test results match the percentages listed on the FDA website.
https://www.businessinsider.com/best-coronavirus-antibody-tests-ranked-by-accuracy-2020-7
I did a very detailed post comparing the excellent quality of the $ABMC test made by Healgen to the other leading tests in the same category. It was top three at the time and in this article top 5 of the dozens that are currently available.
So the test is still accurate and affordable.
I also, posted this back on Sept 1.
The article will also give you some info.
Healgen rapid test distributed by $ABMC showed 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity ranking in the top 5 of 62 evaluated tests.
A recently published Canadian study reported that the Healgen rapid test distributed by $ABMC is still one of the top in the world.
Article Title: Not all COVID-19 antibody tests are created equal, but which ones are best?
https://www.studyfinds.org/not-all-covid-19-antibody-tests-are-created-
Hey JJ24
Are you questioning if I am staying long, as if I had a doubt, or are you stating a fact like- for sure, everybody should be long because these facts are solid?
I can work with everything you stated here. I'll stay long.
After weeks of evaluation, way to many hours, I can only assume that ABMC is being shorted.
Until another theory can be proved, it seems some entity has found ABMC, a company not willing to support share price, to take advantage of shareholders.
Price action defies both technical and fundamental analysis.
When these shorted shares are covered before the next earnings report, price will rise again. The question, when will volume come back in.
Still holding for Q3 earnings. ABMC is so undervalued.
Definitely great opportunities out there for you.
All of us holding after gains of 600-1000% and giving it all back, together, really is a rare thing in this industry. Quite amazing actually.
I am appreciate of your team effort.
We will see you again on the ride back up again. And we all hope it is sooner than later.
rain
Good trading Patientlyimpatient.
We know you'll be watching this one so we'll see you again.
Updated ABMC share price projected to be $2.30-4.60 which is very reasonable on SIX MONTH net sales of $8-10m for 2020. I updated calculations to show only PROFITABLE SIX MONTHS NET SALES ESTIMATES
$ABMC excellent 10-Q showing first full month rev for the COVID-19 test kit = June with $800,000.00 NET revenue
Is there a reason we are not discussing this post.
Is there an error or is it extravagant?
These look like most conservative numbers.
Let's look at American Bio Medica sales progress.
Q1 declining revenues continued from 2019. Company relying on old drug tests revenues that have been suffering from overseas competition for years.
New oral drug test just approved by FDA and marketing begins.
New contract manufacturing clients just signed.
Sales will take time to hit the bottom line.
Q2 continued poor revenue numbers from Q1 into April and May. Drug testing revenues decline even further due to Coronavirus hitting domestic and international clients. Behind the scenes, licensing of the Coronavirus Healgen COVID-19 antibody test and government approval for the test begins.
May: FDA EUA approval on May 29 for the new Healgen COVID-19 test allows the company to begin shipping the new COVID-19 test.
June, the last month of Q2, put it all together with sales, shipping and revenues doing the heavy lifting for the huge increase in the 10-Q revenue boost.
Q3 will be the first full quarter of revenues, three months, of net profits to report.
Following calculations are all NET SALES.
NET SALES of $800,000.00 for June and projected share price of $2.30 if we use a very conservative multiplier of only 10. $4.60 with a multiplier of 20 for conservative annual sales.
June did the heavy lifting for share price. Drug test sales declined for the quarter while revenues increased. This is all attributed to sales of the COVID-19 products.
We can extrapolate that June carried $600-800,000.00 of the sales quoted in the Sept 15 PR's and 10-Q
No vaccines will work until they find one for the common cold and flu. That is the reality and why testing will be so important for years to come.
Re post from my Aug 2 post as true today as it was then.
It is possible we may never even have heard immunity because antibodies are dropping more quickly than expected, similar to the common flu and why we need yearly flu shots.
Common human coronaviruses with no vaccines.
229E (alpha coronavirus)
NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
OC43 (beta coronavirus)
HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
Other human coronaviruses
MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)
SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)
And the current pandemic
SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)
People around the world commonly get infected with human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1.
Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold. Most people get infected with one or more of these viruses at some point in their lives. This information applies to common human coronaviruses and should not be confused with coronavirus disease 2019 (formerly referred to as 2019 Novel Coronavirus).
Symptoms of common human coronaviruses:
runny nose
sore throat
headache
fever
cough
general feeling of being unwell
Human coronaviruses can sometimes cause lower-respiratory tract illnesses, such as pneumonia or bronchitis. This is more common in people with cardiopulmonary disease, people with weakened immune systems, infants, and older adults.
You have mentioned this before, but I still do not understand your meaning on this? Help me out on what the concern is.
The 10-Q for Q3 ending Sept 31 will be due November 16, 2020 for $ABMC
Form 10-Q/10-QSB is due 45 days after end of quarter end for Non-Accelerated Filers