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Thanks for the link. I also see number of sites up 150% in one year but number of patient inquiries up 265%. I think they are finally getting in gear. Nice presentation. The stock does not reflect this growth yet. The stock price also suffers from an extremely weak biotech market. XBI was 175 in Feb 2021 and is at 69 today.
On the Tulsa website they now have 14 sites plus 3 clinical trial centers PLUS they have listed an additional 4 coming soon sites and one of them is Mayo Clinic. Maybe things are finally picking up.
PROF presented yesterday at a conference (see news feed) and today it's up 1.10 as of now. Coincidence?
Today the Tulsa website says the locations of facilities is password protected? Maybe it's a website problem or it's being updated? Kind of strange.
XBI is down over 50% from the high 14 months ago so that is not helping.
Just checked and they added another new site to their website. That's 14 plus 3 clinical trial sites. Plus they say some are not up there.
https://tulsaprocedure.com/tulsa-centers/#usasites
They claim the machines they have installed are doing more procedures than they estimated so I'm not so sure the insurance coverage is the issue. To me the company has failed to get enough installations done. They blame covid and certainly that had an impact. Whatever the reason, the stock will continue to languish imo until they start getting lots of machines installed and in operation. They have missed virtually every estimate made on installations. I have to listen to the last conf call in full but I think one analyst wrote afterward they now predict 40 by the end of this year. That would be great but so far these installations are not showing up on their website.
I am still convinced they have the best solution though so while I sold half a while back I plan to hold the rest as of now and hope for better execution by the company.
Douglas Loe of Leede Jones Gable is feeling positive regarding the trajectory of Profound Medical (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Chart, News NASDAQ:PRN), maintaining a “Buy” rating and target price of $26.25/share for a projected one-year return of 180 per cent in an update to clients on March 4.
Mississauga-based Profound Medical develops magnetic resonance guided ablation procedures for treatment of prostate disease, uterine fibroids and palliative pain treatment in Canada, Germany, the United States and Finland, with its chief offering being the prostate cancer-targeted ultrasound ablation technology TULSA-PRO.
Loe’s latest analysis comes after Profound reported its fourth quarter financial results, along with its 2021 year-end totals.
“Commentary was centered on the firm’s FDA/EMA-approved MR-guided prostate-focused ultrasound ablation platform TULSA-PRO and ongoing marketing/clinical/reimbursement activities to drive adoption,” Loe said. “Momentum is building in early F2022 after predictably sluggish operations in F2021.”
Profound recorded $1 million in revenue, a 65.6 per cent year-over-year drop, with the full amount coming from recurring revenue and nothing from capital equipment sales. However, Loe noted that the company maintained its expectations of 40 new TULSA-PRO installations in 2022, combatting what was a slow end to the fiscal year. (All figures in US dollars.)
The company also posted total operating expenses of approximately $10.2 million, representing a 69 per cent year-over-year increase, a number that Loe expects to go up with the company starting to enroll 201 patients in its CAPTAIN trial.
According to Loe, the company ended the quarter with $67.2 million in cash and equivalents available, which should be enough to support its ongoing clinical and commercial efforts pertaining to TULSA-PRO.
“Despite facing COVID-19 headwinds that impacted the pace of new U.S. TULSA-PRO installations in the first three quarters of 2021, the opportunity that we see for the technology remains intact,” said Arun Menawat, Profound’s CEO and Chairman in the company’s March 3 press release. “Indeed, with many of the leading hospitals in the U.S. being early adaptors of the technology, and clinicians already treating an unrivaled variety of prostate disease patients, we are well ahead of where competing treatment technologies were in their first two years post-launch. TULSA-PRO installations in the United States increased significantly in Q4-2021, and that trend has continued so far in the current quarter. We believe this bodes well for potential higher revenue growth in 2022.”
Despite the company finishing 2021 at a six per cent loss from a revenue perspective, Loe expects tailwinds from TULSA-PRO’s continued progression to help the company’s bottom line sooner rather than later, as he forecasts a 441 per cent jump to $37.2 million in revenue for 2022, with approximately 72.2 per cent of the revenue mix coming from TULSA-PRO capital equipment and accessories. Looking ahead to 2023, Loe forecasts an 85 per cent year-over-year increase to $68.7 million, with the TULSA-PRO categories accounting for 70.9 per cent of the projected revenue mix.
Loe then forecasts the company’s total revenue to jump into nine figures at $108.7 million in 2024 for a 58 per cent year-over-year increase (72.7 per cent coming from the TULSA-PRO categories), beginning a steep revenue curve that culminates in a 2028 projection of $297.9 million in revenue, with TULSA-PRO and its accessories accounting for 81.9 per cent of the revenue mix.
Meanwhile, 2022 sees Loe forecasting positive EBITDA for Profound for the first time, with the $3.04 million projection introducing an eight per cent margin, which he forecasts to jump to 30 per cent ($20.8 million in EBITDA) in 2023. From there, Loe forecasts the margin to continue rising, potentially reaching as high as 57 per cent ($170.3 million in EBITDA) by 2028.
Finally, from 2022 on, Loe forecasts stable gross margins of 45 per cent for capital equipment and 73 per cent for its accessories.
From a valuation perspective, Loe introduces an EV/EBITDA multiple in 2022 at 14.5x, along with a P/E multiple of greater than 30x.
Overall, Loe notes his investment thesis regarding Profound is relatively unchanged from before.
“Even though topline performance reflected no capital equipment sales in FQ421 owing to pandemic challenges, we believe that retrospective focus on trailing sales data as a baseline for future TULSA-PRO/Sonalleve adoption is to miss the fact that signals of recovering growth trajectory are already apparent, and should be reflected in financial data as early as FQ122,” Loe said.
Profound Medical’s stock price has had a pronounced drop over the last 12 months, reporting a 62.8 per cent loss in that time. Since the release of Loe’s analysis, the stock has dropped a further 12.3 per cent, hitting C$10/share on Tuesday, a long way from the 52-week high of $28.77/share the company saw a year ago.
The downgrade the other day by Raymond James seemed like a turning point. Plus the stock acts like everyone pessimistic on today's earnings report so any positive news might turn this. Overall though the growth here very disappointing so far. I still believe in the product though so at some point it should get wider adoption.
New installation...finally.
Happy New Year Lazer. Let's hope it's a better year for PROF.
They finally have another site listed on their website but seemed to have missed the promised 20 sites by year end. The new site is University of Texas Medical Branch. They have 12 listed plus three trial sites some of which are duplicates.
If you believe what mgt says in their conf calls they already have 25 sites contracted as of the last call so I don't think this is slow due to wanting more evidence but I could be wrong. Hospitals have been overwhelmed with patients world wide even before this current covid spike. I think the company should turn any focus away from hospitals right now because they are overburdened and under staffed and probably don't have the time to work with Profound installation. The company said in the last call this was an issue. I hope they have changed their strategy. I have emailed them my opinion on this but of course get no reply.
This looks like a good addition imo. PROF is failing to get this installed in enough sites. This guy has a great resume for what we need. It sounds like he would have a lot of contacts in the industry for prostate cancer. Also, makes me wonder if BSCI would be interested to buy PROF some day.
Hopefully we get an analyst to upgrade based on this.
https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/01/05/2361581/33471/en/Kenneth-Knudson-Joins-Profound-Medical-as-Chief-Commercial-Officer.html
Anyone still in this? No posts in over a month. No new sites on their website either. They promised 4 more by year end but also say some of them are not on the website so who knows.
The performance here has been very disappointing. They have the best mousetrap for sure so why are they not growing faster? No new site listed on their website for quite a while now. They promised 2.5 per month thru the end of year. Mgt should not promise something if they are not sure they can deliver. I'm still holding for the product but starting to be very disappointed in the execution by management.
Two days in a row now with significant late day buying. Someone is accumulating this.
From the Cantech letter 9/10/21:
Here is a link to the full post
https://www.cantechletter.com/2021/09/these-three-medical-device-stocks-are-all-buys/
Next is Profound Medical (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:PRN), which is also in the commercialization stage in the United States for its non-invasive, image-guided therapeutic technology, the TULSA-PRO, which uses real-time magnetic resonance imaging, robotically-driven ultrasound and closed-loop thermal feedback control. The TULSA-PRO, which was cleared by the FDA in 2019, is used for the ablation of pathologic prostate tissue and has Profound currently ramping up its installations of units across the country.
Last month on August 25, Raymond James analyst Rahul Sarugaser released a report where he compared the TULSA-PRO specs to those of therapeutic ultrasound company EDAP TMS’ Focal One high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) device for the treatment of prostate cancer. Sarugaser said head-to-head, the TULSA-PRO’s clinical data show “objectively superior safety” versus the Focal One. Further, Sarugaser said the TULSA-PRO shows much broader utility as it can be used not just in focal ablation (as is the case for Focal One) but for partial and whole gland ablation, thereby equating to a larger total addressable market — a TAM which Sarugaser puts at over one million patients.
“Whether for whole gland or focal ablation, we find PROF TULSA to have objectively superior safety to EDAP HIFU. We also find, using equal market assumptions, PROF TULSA captures 62 per cent higher revenue than EDAP HIFU. Further, considering its much broader utility, PROF TULSA’s TAM is, in fact, >10x larger than that of EDAP HIFU,” Sarugaser wrote.
With his report, Sarugaser reiterated his “Strong Buy 1” rating for PRN, a stock which, like Perimeter, had both a run-up earlier this year and a pullback. Currently, the stock is down 30 per cent for the year-to-date.
I noticed there seemed to be more analysts asking questions on the last conf call so maybe some one of them will initiate coverage with buy. Otherwise this company does not do a good job of promoting itself imo.
Great comparison to EDAP. There is a Seeking Alpha article which favors EDAP so this was good to see.
I've been on vacation most of August but am back now. I see a bottom forming on the chart. I think we have seen the lows. Waiting now to see more sites added.
New site listed...Halo Diagnostic in Houston.
As you can see in PR, revenue was better than last qtr. They say they have 14 sites open and not all of them are on their website. They stuck to 25 open by end of year. It seems the limiting factor is their ability to open, not contracts in hand. They continue to blame covid for some issues. The CEO gave the example that one site was delayed 6 weeks while the MRI center was unable to get a router needed for the Tulsa installation.
1.4 million of revenue was from the one time sale of capital equipment. Non analyst asked about this. In Q4 of last year 2.6 million of revenue was from the "sale of products". Not clear if these are the same or not but they are possibly transitioning from selling machines to a per use rental. Too bad no analyst asked them to clarify.
Well now I'm not sure if this is a new site or not. The new site is UCLA Health but it was already previously listed as a Clinical Trial site and both have the same address.
There is finally a new site listed on the website. Don't have time to see which one it is now but will check later.
Up to 12 sites now.
https://tulsaprocedure.com/tulsa-centers/#usasites
Found it, TACT study design link:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02766543?term=TULSA&draw=2
Thanks MST, that is good information. Do you happen to have a link to the tact2 trial design?
I think we should all contact investor relations and ask for an explanation. Did something happen that is a material event? Seems likely based on no openings in months when we were told 2 installations were complete on May 12th. They are required to report material events within 72 hours I believe...they can not wait for a quarterly conf call.
Hopefully that means there has not been a material event but you have to wonder.
Not unusual to see those blocks at important turning points. Hopefully you're right.
Where are all the new sites? 1 to 2 per month this summer and so far 0 in last almost 2 months since they said that.
They just said they don't typically do that. No reason given.
I and another owner I know have both asked them to PR when new sites are open and they refuse to do it. The more stockholders they hear from the more pressure they will feel.
I think you should call or email their Investor Relations department and ask why the stuff on twitter, especially this story, is not being put out as a PR too. If the company has good news there is no reason to hide it while the stock price slips.
There is someone on stocktwits.com that is speculating EDAP may buy out PROF for Sonaleve. He has seen some moves by EDAP that indicate the possibility they are thinking about an aquisition. I think it's unlikely but possible. I'm starting to wonder what is going on that we are told about overwhelming demand for Tulsa but yet the opening of new sites is at a snails pace. Why?
It will be 7 weeks on Wednesday since they said 2 installations were done and they would put them on website once they started treating patients. Something not right with that.
That's my question too but it was not addressed. Almost 6 weeks ago they said two installations were done and once they began treating patients they would post them on their website but so far nothing. The CEO was pretty emotional about his prostate treatment so no doubt he's been distracted over the spring.
In the RJ webcast today the CEO spoke about how he had to have the Tulsa Pro procedure. I've never seen something like this. Here is a link.
https://kvgo.com/rj-health/profound-medical-corp-june-2021
He is more convinced than ever this is a game changer for men and their prostate health.
The daily chart shaping up pretty nice now. Seems to have bottomed. Now we just need some results as they have promised and I wouldn't be surprised to see it make new highs in the next 6 to 12 months.
Improved Q2 revenue or some evidence of it. At the last conf call they said they had 2 more installations done and would add them to their website when they begin treating patients. That was over 3 weeks ago. They also said 1 to 2 more per month thru the summer and over 25 total by end of year based on contracts already signed. All very bullish but so far it's talk so my guess is investors waiting to see what materializes.
I hope everyone here held on. I think we have a bottom in. Would have been easy to get shook out of this one but the future sounded bright to me on the last conf call.
Is this management trying to keep the stock price down? I have to wonder. This is not the first time there is what I consider material and bullish information in the conference call they do not put in the PR. Why? In this case the near future looks quite bright. While we have 11 installations now they apparently have more than 15 signed contracts and they expect 1 to 2 installations per month over the summer. We also have two installations already done but not on the website until they begin treating patients. Why is this all a secret only for those who listen to the conf call? The stock should be up today based on this. Combine the fact they said March sales and sales into this quarter are much better and they expect to make up the sales shortfall by year end.
I agree the forward looking statements are usually more important and they were very bullish. I was really impressed on how many contracts in hand and the CPT code news. I'm surprised it's down in after hours.
Pent up demand? It will be interesting to see if they will show continued higher than expected use of each machine like they did last quarter. I would expect there to be continued pent up demand from the lack of procedures during the worst of the pandemic.
New location open. We are up to 11 and again, no PR. I'm not sure which is the new one but I think it's Wellspan in York, PA. No PR and stock is down as it was the last time a new site opened with no PR.
I never got a reply from IR, CEO, or CFO to my email either.
I come up with $US 35 target...43*.815
New agreement for up to 10 machines
TORONTO , May 06, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Profound Medical Corp. (NASDAQ:PROF; TSX:PRN) (“Profound” or the “Company”), a commercial-stage medical device company that develops and markets customizable, incision-free therapies for the ablation of diseased tissue, today announced the signing of a multi-site imaging center agreement for TULSA-PRO® with Akumin Inc. (NASDAQ/TSX:AKU) (“Akumin”), a leading provider of freestanding, fixed-site outpatient diagnostic imaging services in the United States .
Pursuant to the agreement, Profound expects to install TULSA-PRO® systems at up to 10 Akumin centers to be outfitted with diagnostic and therapeutic imaging services specifically dedicated towards men’s health. All of these TULSA-PRO® systems will be placed under Profound’s per procedure business model. The initial geographic focus of the relationship will be in the State of Florida , with Texas and Pennsylvania expected to follow. Based upon the success of the first 10 installations, the two companies hope to expand their relationship in the future to include additional Akumin men’s health centers.
“We believe that Akumin will be a particularly strong partner for us given its strategy to become a leading full-service provider of men’s health and its geographic density in Florida , one of the largest markets for prostate care in the country,” commented Arun Menawat , Profound’s CEO and Chairman. “With respect to timing, we currently expect the first Akumin TULSA-PRO® site to be operational in the fourth quarter of 2021.”
“Akumin is introducing a new service offering with centers focused on men’s health. In collaboration with urologists and using a consumer-centric approach, Akumin’s goal is to redefine the delivery of prostate care through diagnostic imaging, minimally invasive treatment, and post-treatment monitoring,” said Riadh Zine , President and Chief Executive Officer of Akumin . “TULSA-PRO® is a customizable and incision-free prostate disease treatment system that minimizes the impact on men’s functional abilities and provides the highest quality of life after treatment. We are excited to partner with Profound to offer this revolutionary technology to our physicians and patients.”
About Akumin Inc.
Akumin is a leading provider of freestanding, fixed-site outpatient diagnostic imaging services in the United States with a network of owned and/or operated imaging centers located in Florida , Texas, Pennsylvania , Delaware , Illinois , Kansas and Georgia . By combining our clinical expertise with the latest advances in technology and information systems, our centers provide physicians with imaging capabilities to facilitate the diagnosis and treatment of diseases and disorders and may reduce unnecessary invasive procedures, minimizing the cost and amount of care for patients. Our imaging procedures include MRI, CT, positron emission tomography (PET), ultrasound, diagnostic radiology (X-ray), mammography, and other interventional procedures.
About Profound Medical Corp.
Profound is a commercial-stage medical device company that develops and markets customizable, incision-free therapies for the ablation of diseased tissue.
Profound is commercializing TULSA-PRO®, a technology that combines real-time MRI, robotically-driven transurethral ultrasound and closed-loop temperature feedback control. TULSA-PRO® is designed to provide customizable and predictable radiation-free ablation of a surgeon-defined prostate volume while actively protecting the urethra and rectum to help preserve the patient’s natural functional abilities. TULSA-PRO® has the potential to be a flexible technology in customizable prostate ablation, including intermediate stage cancer, localized radio-recurrent cancer, retention and hematuria palliation in locally advanced prostate cancer, and the transition zone in large volume benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). TULSA-PRO® is CE marked, Health Canada approved, and 510(k) cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”).
Profound is also commercializing Sonalleve®, an innovative therapeutic platform that is CE marked for the treatment of uterine fibroids and palliative pain treatment of bone metastases. Sonalleve® has also been approved by the China National Medical Products Administration for the non-invasive treatment of uterine fibroids and has FDA approval under a Humanitarian Device Exemption for the treatment of osteoid osteoma. The Company is in the early stages of exploring additional potential treatment markets for Sonalleve® where the technology has been shown to have clinical application, such as non-invasive ablation of abdominal cancers and hyperthermia for cancer therapy.