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Looks like we're facing another week without news where we sit and watch the sp drop.
After 3 years in development the UBand still seems to be stuck on the drawing board. The only thing they seem to be able to do quickly is roll out more private placements.
Less then 20 minutes into trading and we're already down more than 4%... how much longer is Ji going to allow the sp to bleed away?
I know there's a choir of believers that monthly keep chanting "approvals in the next few weeks" and "Ji is building a pharma powerhouse" but these hymns are getting old in the face of continued erosion in the sp.
Ji has spent millions on a COVID program with no approved products that will soon become worthless as the world reaches herd immunity. It's hard to keep the faith in the face of continued failure to execute.
Everyone expected it... not sure why they didn't wait to sell when the sp was higher so there would be less dilution. There should be a sp bump in May when the permit is approved.
This private placement at $2.72CAD is likely the reason for the drop in sp. The $2.72CAD translates into $2.15USD. We may continue to drop some more... I've got a buy order set at $2.25USD if it drops more.
Still awaiting news on NASDAQ listing.
Interesting list... all of these are invasive, requiring blood with test strips or blood from a patch/needle. Only the Libre Freestyle and Dexcom G6 are CGMs.
If only KNWN could get the UBand out the door then this list would become irrelevant. But, alas, they don't seem to be able to get it done.
This stock has dropped 55% in the last month... about 2.5% per trading day. And today is shaping up no differently with another 2+% drop in sp.
I know that Ji is focused on building SRNE into a big pharma with all of his acquisitions but he hasn't yet demonstrated that he can execute on the programs he currently has.
In the end, the $100+ sp price that folks are predicting assumes that Ji can get this engine, with its multiple piece parts, running. He hasn't been able to get one COVID EUA approval in the most favorable approval environment we've ever seen... why should investors believe that he will succeed in his long-term vision?
Agreed that the May testing will be a positive update, but given the delays will it be enough to lift the stock significantly. It's been at least 10 months since the Mayo engagement was announced and, based on the small snippets of information that leak out, it's been at least 6 months since the prototype has been available. A Mayo announcement may be a case of too little too late.
Based on the glacial pace that this company moves, the UBand should be available about the time diabetes is cured using CRISPR technology. I've invested in several small caps and startups in the past but have never seen a technology with so much potential be obliterated through such slow execution.
I remember that article from a year ago... it was covering CGM's, both invasive and non-invasive. That's why it's puzzling that KNWN got mentioned in that article (which covered all CGM's) but didn't make the cut in an article focused on the much smaller set of CGM's that are non-invasive.
It's a shock that KNWN didn't make this list... I guess Healthline doesn't believe the UBand will ever make it to market.
They've probably heard the same slipped timelines as investors... first early 2019, then late 2019, then late 2020, then crickets.
I don't want to minimize the Particle news but, realistically, Particle is a side business. UBand is their main franchise and there has been a total news blackout on UBand for the past 9 months.
This would be analogous to CocaCola raving about their Dasani bottled water sales but remaining completely silent about their core soft drink business.
If we're lucky we might eventually see dinner but there was nothing "easy" about it :)
We won't see 50 cents... I agree the price will continue to drop but think it will not go much below $1. We are just crossing the oversold line and seemed to have support at $1 back in January. With any positive news this jumps back over $2 and begins its climb back up.
Investing in this company is like sitting through a movie in slo-mo. Still waiting on news about so many things:
- The latest on miniaturization of the UBand
- Results from the Mayo testing
- Marketing of the Particle Bulb
- etc., etc., etc.
This company is becoming the Wall Street equivalent of a black hole, efficiently sucking up investor monies without releasing anything of commercial value.
It might make it down to $1`but I don't think it will drop much below it. We had that brief drop in early January a little below $1 and there seemed to be alot of buyers who stepped in to prop up the share price so $1 is probably a reasonable level of support.
Agreed that this company doesn't have revenues yet but look at QuantumScape with no revenues, a $65 sp, and $23B MC. They don't even have proven technology yet. ABML has proven technology, a clear roadmap to revenues and profits, and a compelling story... I think the sp will begin to take off again once construction starts.
The biggest problem we faced was the quiet period associated with the S3... if I'd realized there would be a 2 month news blackout I would have sold a bunch and bought back at a lower price.
The "why" is no news. In Doug's interview more than a month ago he promised there would be several news releases in the next 1-2 weeks. What he should have said is to expect a news blackout for the next 1-2 months.
This will continue to drift lower as a result of the Spruce Capital hit piece until we get some positive news from the company. It's been dropping an average of about 10 cents a day since March 9... we'll probably break below a dollar if we don't get news in the next 2 weeks.
I know that UV light is used very effectively as a passive disinfectant in alot of applications, e.g., ventilation systems and water purification. I have a UV disinfectant device for my well water and a UV lamp installed in my furnace vent. I know that most hospitals and alot of commercial buildings use UV light in their HVAC systems. The issue with UV lamps in general is the danger of damage to human tissue from direct exposure.
The use of near-UV light in the Particle bulb, along with the cutoff sensors which detect individuals nearby, seems to minimize the danger from UV. However, the near-UV light also makes this less effective as a disinfectant (it takes 8 hours to kill 99.9% of COVID germs at a distance of 5ft). I think the fact that this is a passive disinfect which can operate 24/7 will be attractive to many people who might be phobic about germs on surfaces. But, like you, I wonder how much benefit this will add to disinfectant measures already in place and will it be worth the cost.
I don't think you could test the effectiveness of adding this passive countermeasure because there are too many unknown variables that would have to be considered. In the end the buyer will have to make a judgment based on their individual circumstances. I still like the device but don't think I would purchase it at the current price point.
A few other interesting tidbits in the investor presentation:
See the updated timeline on slide 17... the plant doesn't start operating until 1Q22 and they don't start producing "battery grade metals" until 3Q22. Deadlines continue to slip with this company.
See the list of competitors on slide 16. Li-Cycle and Northvolt appear to be two serious competitors with environmentally friendly recycling processes. Li-Cycle is a North American recycler that seems to be about 2 years ahead of ABML, having commissioned their first plant in 2019. Northvolt is a major European LI battery manufacturer and their recycling arm is scheduled to begin in 2022.
They list Lithium Hydroxide under "Primary Battery Metals Extraction" but don't provide any other details. I guess the mining operations in Railroad Valley are still a pipe dream.
ABML seems to be a day late and a dollar short in this race.
I think there will be a market for the Particle bulb but don't think the market will be as large as they expect, especially at the price points which were shown a couple of weeks ago.
The market for the Particle bulb reminds me of the Volvo market several years ago when Volvo was touting their safety in a crash. Volvo drivers, by and large, were very risk averse - it was a PITA being stuck driving behind one on a two-lane road. Similarly, I think the Particle bulb will appeal to germophobes and the very risk averse.
I have to agree that they seem to be serial procrastinators... their original goal for the UBand was to submit an application to the FDA by Q4 of 2019. Here it is almost 1.5 years later and we don't even have an update on the UBand - instead we are getting alot of PR about the Particle bulb.
I worry that they have gotten distracted by the Particle venture and lost traction/interest in the UBand. The Particle bulb might be interesting but is not what most investors signed on for... we invested in KNWN because of the life-changing potential of the UBand. Let's see some progress on the UBand before moving on to the next great idea.
We are waiting for alot of things:
- The Particle PR
- News on the Mayo engagement
- News on the prototype
We can't say they are as slow as molasses because even molasses moves alot faster than this company :)
Does anyone know why it's taking so long to get the EUA on COVI-STIX approved? We are now at 75 days since they claim to have submitted the application. Is the FDA holding this up because of the lack of tracking?
This company is another Joe Salvani special... he has unique expertise in killing companies through convertible debt. Of course he seems to make out okay in these transactions.
There's an old SA article talking about microcap stock promoters in general and Joe Salvani in particular:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/22554301-teri-buhl/3292835-the-seedy-world-of-microcap-stock-advisors
Having enough supply doesn't mean everyone will get vaccinated... the MRNA and PFE vaccines have potentially serious side effects and are not boostable while the AZ and JNJ vaccines have much lower efficacy. Pretty poor choices for anyone paying attention.
I don't doubt this stock is manipulated, especially considering the 20+% short position. However, I think a bigger explanation for the "always red" phenomenon in SRNE is the FTD (Failure to Deliver) effect. The CEO talked about applying for EUA's 6 months ago and we still haven't seen an approval come through - not even in the most favorable approval environment ever witnessed. Instead of releasing news on an approval the CEO announces the latest acquisition in a stream of arcane and hard to understand business mergers - who knows, maybe Henry Ji is a genius, but until we see some product approvals you should expect to continue seeing red.
I do agree that they don't currently have the infrastructure to manufacture, market, and support a commercial UBand product, but that doesn't rule out licensing the product to a large partner. For licensing, however, Mayo probably needs to complete their testing. Hopefully Mayo results will be announced soon.
Licensing could be very profitable and could easily drive up the share price given the low float.