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I plan to buy more every time the price drops. I've been accumulating for a little over 2 years... others on this board have been in this stock much longer.
I expected this stock to pop before now, but am willing to be patient because I believe this is one of those "legacy" stocks that build family fortunes.
Thanks for the follow-up. Was this a recent contact w/ KNWN?
Since we haven't gotten news in 3+ months we don't really know if the Mayo trails have/haven't started. Some on this board have stated / conjectured that the trials are underway and are going well. It would be nice to know what's going on.
Shorting and slamming are flip sides of the same dynamic. Traders short the stock and then work with news providers to slam the stock. They do it because they can get away with it... as you pointed out, Dr. Ji is a terrible spokesperson for the stock and they haven't done a great job of meeting commitments. As an example, the EUA for COVI-TRACK was supposed to be completed at least 1-2 months ago. Also, there is some concern about dilution as Dr. Ji has purchased several smaller biotechs in the last few months and revenues are not completely clear. Also, it will probably be difficult to prioritize/organize their initiatives with so many new pieces being added.
All that being said, they have a promising pipeline and seem to have a solid antibody development platform. This stock seems to have more risk than most biotechs but, as you note, there's significant revenue potential in this crazy COVID world. I'm invested because I expect that they will do well in the long-term and may get a significant pop short-term with release of some upcoming products.
I'm the first to admit that JK has done a terrible job of managing expectations and delivering on his promises. I'm invested in INO in spite of him.
There are four reasons I think INO will be successful in the long run. The first is the safety profile... most experts agree that we will need to be vaccinated every 1-2 years for COVID 19. The mRNA vaccines appear to generate more severe reactions with each subsequent application so most of these will not be viable in the long run. The adverse effects of IN-4800 don't seem to increase with repeated applications.
The second reason is the stability and shelf life. Cold storage transport, shelf life, and uncertain stability are going to be huge issues when attempting to deliver mRNA vaccines. This is certainly true in 3rd world countries but will also be an issue even in developed countries with better infrastructure. Do we even know what adverse reactions to expect if someone receives a vaccine that has "spoiled"?
The third reason is cost. Many of the competing vaccines are much more expensive to produce and certainly more expensive to transport and distribute.
The fourth reason is the platform. If INO comes out with a vaccine that is superior in the long run, other applications for the platform will quickly emerge. "If you build it they will come"
I know that the INO roller coaster has not been a fun ride for investors but I believe that there will be a big reward at the end of the ride.
INO doesn't have an approved vaccine but has a vaccine for MERS (also a coronavirus) that is close to the finish line.
But your conjecture about OWS funding is not valid since neither Moderna or NVAX have an approved vaccine and they received generous funding from OWS.
I think Joe Kim is the issue - he doesn't have the political/industry connections and he doesn't communicate well. They needed a well connected spokesperson to drive the funding discussions.
Henry Ji and the BOD already signaled their unwillingness to accept a lowball offer for SRNE. In fact, their earlier offer was 3X the SRNE SP at the time of the offer and they rejected it.
You are correct that it's possible they are forced to accept a lowball offer but I think it's highly unlikely. The value of this company keeps increasing and shareholders will be greatly rewarded in a buyout. I think we'll see a buyout long before we see a $1000 SP and I will be more than happy with that outcome.
Very few small biotechs grow that large organically... there's a much higher probability that SRNE gets bought. Also, given Ji's poor performance in PR's for the stock it seems highly unlikely that he can lead SRNE to grow that large.
What you didn't factor into your calculation is the premium that would be paid for Sorrento shares. As you note, there is tremendous potential future growth for Sorrento stock and some of this future growth would be reflected in the price that would be paid.
If, for example, Lilly paid $30 a share for SRNE (even though SRNE stock is now around $10) then you would see an immediate 200% effective increase in share price. Although SRNE has alot of growth potential, there are also alot of risks involved so an immediate 200% profit is quite attractive.
It's hard to determine whether the delays are purely communication issues (e.g., Kim saying since late June that PR P1 results would be out in a "few weeks") or whether there are also fundamental issues with the vaccine or platform or P1 results.
Either way, I agree that it is more likely to go lower rather than higher in the near term without better communication.
I think they are working on an SBA loan for the building... that was the discussion several months back.
Interesting info... with the push into wearable health, I could see both Apple and Google being potential suitors for the KNWN technology. The broad RFID large molecule platform would open the door to alot of potential applications (CGM, hormone monitoring, alcohol monitoring, etc.). Two big drawbacks for them would be having to deal with the FDA for CGM and overcoming the short battery life (at least for the Apple watch).
On the medical side, both DEXCOM and Abbott might be interested in this technology to complement their existing glucose monitoring products. They already deal with the FDA so that would work in their favor. However, they wouldn't be able to leverage the other RFID large molecule applications unless they branch out into new product areas.
Looking forward to learning where this ends up.
A new video with Menka Sethi was posted on Proactive Investors.
View the video under "Director Interviews" at the following link:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/OTCMKTS:ABML/American-Battery-Metals-Corporation/
20% of deaths for 4.2% of the population is a poor statistic to quote for a few reasons.
First, China has 18% of the world population and you will never know how many people died in Wuhan from COVID (estimates are as high as 500K based on estimated cremation rates). India has 17.5% of the world population and is just now seeing it's major surge. The US is testing alot more than many other countries and is probably overcounting COVID deaths... accurate numbers will never be known for the US or any other country.
Second, deaths per million of population is a better measure and the US ranks behind Belgium, Sweden, Italy, UK, Brazil and a several other countries. Also, the US ranks pretty high in terms of tests per million which would explain some of the higher counts in deaths.
I agree that people should be responsible and careful but also think that some of the lockdowns were overreactions that probably caused more harm than saved lives.
An interesting comparison of the US performance relative to other countries in regard to COVID can be found here:
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I think their SP will continue to drop for a while, but I don't think it goes all the way down to $2. Any opinions on where this might bottom out?
After some of the discussion on this forum my probability estimate for a buyout has increased considerably. The reasons are:
1) Once they develop the UBand they'd have to start marketing, fulfillment, and support operations. Ron and Phil are technology geeks and seem to like the development environment. The skills/focus/energy for managing a medical device company are quite different from what they have done in the past and seem to enjoy
2) The company currently has a couple of dozen employees... they'd have to ramp up to 100+ employees to handle the rollout of the UBand. Ron is around 76 and Andy Anderson is probably about the same age. When I get to that age I wouldn't want to take on all the added responsibility of managing a company with a few hundred employees
3) The GCM application is very valuable and they could sell a limited set of RFID functionality around health applications for alot of money while still keeping portions of the the RFID technology for future development. This would give them the ability to continue doing what they probably like best
4) The poison pill only prevents a hostile takeover - they can still voluntarily sell chunks of the technology (or the whole company) if desired
5) I could easily see them being bought by Dexcom, Abbott Labs, Apple, or even Google - any one of them could easily afford $5B to acquire this technology
Even though they talk as if they plan to market the device and uplist the company they have also indicated being open to a buyout in past discussions. I'd be more than happy with a buyout north of $60/share.
I'm not very confident in INO any more and don't know if this gets resolved quickly. I feel like this was a major stumble by a management team that should have known better. The COVID vaccine is a race and, as in any race, a runner who stumbles and falls will never be able to catch up to the pack.
Add to this setback the manufacturing issues, the delayed peer reviewed P1 results, and the general lack of communication by the company and I think this management team might not be able to deliver. The science might be great but it will never see the light of day without good execution.
A number of theories have circulated suggesting that alot of these issues are related to Big Pharma conspiracies or gag orders from DOD but I'm beginning to believe that these guys just can't get it together.
Having been through this before, you'd think they would have anticipated the Cellectra issues in their P2/P3 request. Is this incompetence, stupidity, or carelessness? I'm pretty shocked that Dr. Kim got himself into this position.
I agree that INO has slipped schedules on some of their earlier promises but it's hard to imagine Kim doesn't deliver after promising multiple times in the past few weeks.
The biggest problem with INO stock recently has been the lack of communication from the company which I believe is related to the lawsuits trumped up by the shorts earlier. Given how emphatic Kim has been of late, we would see a wave of lawsuits if he doesn't deliver so I think he's about to deliver the goods.
It wasn't the buyout that didn't make sense, it was doing the Mayo trial without the prototype in advance of the buyout. I agree that the buyer would probably want the prototype completed as proof of the technology. But I still don't see what Mayo's testing would buy anyone.
In response to your comment about booking Mayo so early, I saw on one of the PR's or one of the presentations that the discussions with Mayo had a hard stop and they had to ink the agreement by a certain date... the date got pushed out a little due to COVID but they were still under pressure to finalize the agreement in July.
I'm all for a buyout at the right price... it will remove alot of uncertainty from this stock.
This doesn't make sense. The benefit of using Mayo clinic is to have a 3rd party test of the final device to submit test results to the FDA. If they are being bought out by a company rolling out their own design, what would the Mayo clinic test on the bench model from the lab buy anyone? The buyer would have to pay for a 3rd party test of their final design for FDA approval.
A poster on the YHF board claims he called INO investor relations today about the P2/P3 trial. He was told that the FDA has 30 days to respond to a P3 trial application and the 30 days is up this week. INO investor relations is confident that we should hear soon.
If it's based on Libra then it still requires a patch with needle stuck on the body. It will also have to be changed every few weeks and will cost at least $2K/year to use. The UBAND would be a superior solution... But I agree with others that KNWN's competitive advantage is slowly (or quickly) eroding as they drag their feet on getting the device out.
I first started investing in mid-2018 when they were about to release the calorie counter which was the first application that would be used to fund the CGM development.
They changed priorities, scrapping the calorie counter, and in Jan 2019 presented at the JP Morgan Biotech conference where they planned to have the CGM development complete by the end of 2019. Here we are more than a year later waiting for the Frankenstein prototype which will be followed some months later by a working model.
This may end up being a stock you pass to your kids and grandkids telling them that it might be worth something some day when they finally get it working.
And you could argue that these previous development efforts, although they were subsequently abandoned, prepared INO to respond quickly with a COVID vaccine candidate. This is all part of the dues that must be paid to develop an efficient vaccine platform. And, with this advanced platform, they should be able to lower the expense/effort to bring new vaccines to market.
This may be particularly useful for future pandemics because I don't think COVID-19 will be the last pandemic we'll have to deal with in our lifetimes.
Kim does a terrible job of managing expectations. When he was on Bloomberg Radio back on July 15 he said the peer-reviewed P1 results would be coming out in a few weeks. Here we are 2 months later and he again says they will come out in a few weeks... either he doesn't know the meaning of "few" or he has something to hide.
As mentioned by multiple parties, he just shouldn't be allowed to speak.
I think most folks do realize shorting is necessary and (in theory) a good thing... what they hate is the naked (illegal) shorting and the bottom-feeding short houses like Citron, Hindenburg, and Muddy Waters that do naked shorting and then publish distorted hit pieces. Because of these behaviors, shorting has become the ugly underbelly of the stock market.
The Oxford/AZN vaccine is a little scary... for alot of volunteers they prescribe taking acetaminophen for 6 to 24 hours afterward. What kind of reactions are they seeing that they would start introducing Tylenol post vaccine?
I think the FDA is correct in being more cautious with this vaccine.
The AZN trial has been restarted in the UK but is on hold with the FDA who are investigating the incidents.
I would think the release of the prototype would be considered a material event and would need to be reported in an 8-K. Anyone have a different opinion on this?
I think the stock will languish until they announce the prototype. Everything up till now has been "theoretical"... once they demonstrate this can be manufactured then we should start to see movement.
I think we'll see a jump above $8 bucks at that point... anyone else have an opinion on the SP after the prototype?
They can't start testing until they have the prototype which has apparently still not arrived since they haven't provided any PR's about it. It was supposed to be ready 2 months ago.
Even after they get the prototype (the Frankenstein device) they need to do alot of functional testing before they commit to the manufacture of the actual device. From what they've said in the past I think Mayo has to do testing on the actual device because that is what the FDA will be approving.
We are probably at least a couple of months away from the start of Mayo's testing.
The emphasis in the early days of COVID vaccine development was speed and immugenicity. With the halt in the Oxford/AZN trial and the pushback on the FDA with regard to politics, we now have safety moving to the top. INO will shine in this regard and will also be preferred because of stability at room temperature.
Although MG keeps claiming that CELLECTRA is a gimmick, it may prove to be the key to limited adverse reactions since it makes the vaccine effective at very low doses.
He probably bought alot of it at 3-4 cents... just needed to sell 2000 shares of his TSLA stock to pay for it :)
If you look through the 10-K you see that there were alot of shares purchased at 25 cents a couple of years back in a few investor rounds. Probably someone with alot of shares needed some cash and sold a chunk... and they made 10X their money if they did buy them for a quarter.
But I agree with you that $2.50 will look like pocket change in the next 6-12 months and I'm trying to hold out for the big bonanza.
Ron Ericson presented at the LD Micro conference almost 2 weeks ago and mentioned they have alot of cash and a burn rate of about $200K per month. You can see the presentation at:
https://www.webcaster4.com/Webcast/Page/2019/36730
A follow-up on the buyout rumor... I guess they could sell/license the GCM part of the business to a DEXCOM or Abbott and retain the platform technology which would allow them to still work on non-GCM applications of the UBand.
I wouldn't mind a buyout if the price was high enough. The potential is so huge that they shouldn't sell for less than $100/share which would be about $5B since there's around 50M shares outstanding (including warrants). Of course, $5B would be chump change for Abbott Labs or DEXCOM.
Ron Ericson sounded pretty focused on the future of KNWN at LD Micro last week so, if there is a buyout, I give him kudos for a great acting job. But I guess KNWN is pretty much a development shop right now and they would need a different set of skills to manage a biomed device business so it makes sense to handoff the marketing/manufacturing headaches to an established company.
It depends on the P1 release... if it comes out Tues or Thur then we head back up. I still don't think we will hit $7 and we definitely won't hit $5.
If P1 results don't appear this week it's possible that INO drops to $5... however, published P1 results this week will push this back up. If they can't get P1 results published this week then they deserve to drop to $5.