Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Probably the easiest layup in the decades I've been investing. Century Bank, which it will acquire after regulator approval, just announced record earnings.
EBC now over 21. My target is at last 22 in near term, and any downside move will just be profit sharing, with plenty of demand.
The $1.8 B they raised in the IPO is just there to buy the earnings of other banks that fit their model. In other words, there is no need to take on debt or to issue stock for these cash pruchases. Over $1 B still available after the Century deal closes.
Big news. After just one quarter, the dividend will be raised from 6 cents to 8 cents. That means we are doing well and can afford the much bigger news.
EBC will acquire Century Bank. Nasdaq: CNBKA. This is a well known bank in New England, run by the Sloane family since it was founded in 1969.
All cash deal with cash on hand: $642M. We are putting some of the $1.8B raised in the IPO to good use. It's a little pricey at 1.75 x tangible book, but a fair price. Eastern projects this to be 55% accretive to earnings on a fully synergized basis and to have an IRR of approximately 17%.
This might be one of the rare situations when an acquirer's stock goes up the next day, but whatever happens tomorrow, the future is very bright.
I lack the tenure (or patience) of you lifers. Congrats. You've done well from those early days.
Not been good for the "new money" but we all hopefully get the CORTI approval and more respect from Wall Street. So much of stock price in this market is positive energy and a "story." We have that story, and just need to tell it better.
I don't know AFBI. As for WMPN, it's awfully small to be public, and I don't know its market area.
WMPN has done this in two stages, starting in 2018. That's a more typical prcess with small mutuals (unlike EBC). It gives them time to manage expnses and improve their bottom line so that the eventual second stage will be more attractive to investors.
Simply because WMPN has had that lead time, I don't see the boost from expense management with WMPN that you will probably see with EBC, which went full IPO and was mutual until mid-October, 2020. Don't expect huge cuts at EBC; that's not the bank's culture, but there will undoubtedly be some improvements, based on the conference call and common sense. In addition, they have the insurance and employee benefits subsidiary, which keeps growing and is a great source for cross-selling EBC's banking services.
For WMPN, there must be demand for the shares, because the ESOP could not get shares through a subscription in this recent second round and has to buy through the open market. I haven't checked to see if it is sensibly diversified (like EBC with the insurance subsidiary) and suspect it is just straight banking.
Bottom line: I might check into WMPN a bit more, but wonder how such a small company can prosper as a public entity, and I doubt their market area comes close to the Boston region. Frankly, I would rather buy more EBC, even as the stock approaches 20. Thanks for calling WMPN to my attention.
Thanks. Appreciate that clarification. This is a mystery.
JTFM and Silver,
Thanks very much for taking the time to explain this to me. I really am trying to understand this better, but it is so much different from the industries I've worked in. Bear with me.
Is there anything in any public filings of ANIP in the last 5 years which even mentions what you guys speculate about?
I know that as original investors there is a hope that somehow ANIP's Libigel rights (whatever they are) will turn into gold, but I'm just baffled that nothing is ever mentioned in public filings. As for the safety data that does show unexpected improvement in women with heart issues, how long does data like that stay usable?
There's a lot of brainpower that goes into these discussions, but is this just a hope that ANIP has sat on a golden opportunity for years, kept it hidden from the public, and will some day monetize it?
I DO NOT mean this to be unfriendly, but I'm trying to assess the monetary value, and I just haven't heard or read anything about this opportunity for ANIP except with the few posters here. Is there anything credible from other sources?
On December 27, 2020, I posted recommendations for portfolios with EBC as a cornerstone, and some unconventional ideas to lighten up on tech, avoid indices, and to take a position in Bitcoin (then at $27,600) rather than gold. Three months later, it's clear I clicked the right boxes. The nice thing about markets is that there can be many ways of being right. You need to think it through, and to not let mistakes psyche you out so that you start chasing longshots to try to get even.
From $20 to $23. Another analyst upgrade, this time from Compass Point, which specializes in the financial service area. (To my knowledge, no relationship with EBC except for coverage.)
http://www.compasspointllc.com/
I don't have a specific recommendation. I was very lucky with EBC because I had an account there, and when they went public they gave depositors the right to buy up to 200,000 shares at $10/each. That bargain is pretty typical when mutual banks decide to go public.
As a matter of practice, I am now opening small accounts at various mutuals which I think are attractive and possible IPO candidates, but none of them approach EBC.
The worst that happens when I open new accounts at various mutuals is I tie up a little money, which I would have kept in a bank account anyway.
By the way, even though EBC has performed greatly, with little risk, it's not a bad place to invest at prices below 18, if that happens again.
Friday was a high volume day for pharma. Glad we were swept along, but investors were clearly reaching out for a sector that has been neglected.
According to Schwab:
MRK - 55,558,405 vs. avg. of 17,419,102
PFE - 48,348,878 vs. avg. of 30,210,678
ANIP - 128,115 vs. avg. of 62,144
That's a better source than a broker. This is clearly not just a few amateurs. Looks good.
Schwab's reporting 30,000. Not sure how they measure, but this is good. The whole change of approach, of which Pat was undoubtedly the godfather, will catch the eye of institutional investors.
Agreed. The debt service is a huge problem for LNDC (and me). It's a slow growing organic food company with a pharma arm that is growing. Pat was added to the Board recently when shareholders specifically voted to expand the Board so that he and one other could join. I wonder if LNDC wouldn't work a deal to sell the food business, pay down debt, and do more pharma acquisitions. I'm over my head when trying to evaluate any science in the pharma industry. Still, I'm wondering why Pat joined, and why they wanted him. He wouldn't just be taking up space if they weren't looking to him for real input.
As or ANIP, you can see I overcame my initial queasiness, and it's a real investment now with the addtional shares yesterday. I'm now in it for a little more than one Bitcoin. (<:
JTFM, Thanks for that link to the Alcami appointment. I followed up, because the best jockeys often end up on the best horses.
Alcami isn't public, but here's what I learned.
In addition to his duties at Alcami, Mr. Walsh currently serves as Chairman of ANI Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ANIP), a director at Landec Corporation (NASDAQ: LNDC), and a director at Industria Chemica Emiliano (I.C.E).
So, under the theory you bet the horses that a good jockey rides, I'm wondering if LNDC would make sense to add to my portfolio with ANIP. (Not sure how to buy into the I.C.E. Group.)
And here's a picture. Looks like Pat might be a little too heavy to win a horse race. https://www.alcaminow.com/blog
LD
The stock went over $20 yesterday, then retreated a few cents. It's now a double since the IPO in October, and still conservatively priced. And we got our first quarterlydividend, just 6 cents to start, but it will grow.
Here's the Form 4.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023024/000141588921001560/xslF345X03/form4-03172021_040314.xml
After the purchase of 4,000 shares, Pat has a total position of 39,096 shares. Average cost for the new shares is $32.8888. That's roughly $1.3 million value at today's $33/share. It's nice to see a director using real money to buy shares at market price. This adds to the 10,000 shares he purchased for $30 each last August.
Note that he has no options (except for some that were exercisable at $68 that don't show up on this form), just this direct ownership.
I'm assuming that there will be a grant to directors at this upcoming annual meeting, which is fine with me. Get the job done. (And Pat's purchase encouraged me to double my position. In a market where most share prices are extravagantly overheated, this is a very fair price if they can execute.)
I bet there are some who find it fun, but I hear you.
There is an Ignore function by the way. Use it. Won't hurt my feelings.
OT: Contest update. I was not going to post until ANIP started to move up, and it is doing that.
Now at $33.17, an 18.5% move from $28 when contest started.
Bitcoin has been crazy. Congrats to Catty, but the contest goes to December 31, and anything can happen.
Bitcoin now at $56,387, a 119% move from $25,700 when contest started.
LD
I'll defer to you guys on this, but fingers crossed.
If we ever get a decent announcement on something unexpected like this, there will be hunger on the Street.
LD
Art wasn't a moron, by any means. He held the company together and developed a diversified product line and business. He found the Corti product and worked the deal with MRK.
Having to watch costs, he didn't spend enough for the right talent, and would not have dared dilute shareholders and take on expense like the new team.
I see this in my real life. Art did not have a good board.
The VCs from Radnor were essentially in control, but they are not the guys to run the show. To their credit, one of them who was contributing nothing but overhead is off the Board, and Brown is just a token chair, but he'll be there because of the ownership.
This change and the expense were necessary. I've come around to that way of thinking and have started with an initial small position.
Thanks, Silver
I was skeptical after reading the initial announcement, but the more I dug into the actual 8-k, conference call and proxy statement, the more I felt it would be worth the risk. These guys mean business and can get this to the next level. Cost about half a bitcoin (but no way I sold any of that precious stuff; I just raided LadyDarley's rainy day fund.)
Best to all -- and success.
Proud owner of 1,000 shares. What the hell? Just a penny under $32. I think there is a lot of risk, and that this is probably dead money for a while, but if they execute there will be a good long term profit.
JTFM, Do you think this is worth reopening a new position at $31 or so? Just looking for a second opinion.
I have reread the transcript again, and the earnings report, and the new proxy statement with summary of deal conditions.
I am on the fence. They will be taking bold initiatives.
With the dilution and what we can probably expect from this deal's debt and the new convertible, and the promise of future PIPE (below market) placements, I'm figuring about 25%-30% dilution (minimum) for current shareholders after the deal closes.
On the plus side --for Corti, the attorneys for sellers went over the application carefully, per the transcript, and that was undoubtedly a big factor for sellers to decide to go forward.
With the extra debt, this is still a gamble to put in new money, but it does seem like there is more professional leadership. I just don't know if the upside is sufficient to put in new money for what will be a long term invetment.
They are not looking for a safe single, that's for sure.
The new debt facility is a $300M term loan with $40M revolver. In order to have flexibility with minimal covenants, rate is almost 6%.
Pipe financing already, with a $25M convertible. Hate those things, because they suppress price as holders short sell without risk.
Bottom line is that they are betting the company to bring in (hopefully) a major league team, research capacity, and good product line.
The stock won't be flying away in the short term, but maybe it's worth a flier.
Agree with JTFM that being a US source supplier is a great positive. The problem is that this is just a lot of debt, and needing to do a convertible so soon and being clear they will sell in private placements at below markets does take away some of the get-rich quick dreams.
Novitium Pharma does create an interesting possibility.
It also has state of the art manufacturing facilities, per its website.
I'm wondering if part of the Plan would be to consolidate generic manufacturing and close one or more of the ANIP facilities.
Say good-bye to a quick pop in price. Very disappointing.
- Corti filing now delayed to 2nd qtr. They say it will be "robust" and that there has been a lot of interaction with FDA.
- Acquiring Novitium Pharma, which will add to R&D engine, expansion of generics and CDMO business. Will cost $89.5 million cash and $74 million in EQUITY. (That seems incredibly dilutive for a company with a market cap of less than $400M.) There will also be earnout payments up to additional $46.5 million. This requires shareholder approval. Novitium Pharma must be a hell of a company, because this is a big bet.
- Earnings were terrible and below estimates, whether you use GAAP or preferred phony GAAP, which disregards many expenses.
Bottom line for me: this is for long term investment only. Investor capital will be tied up without relief.
OT: Dear "druggies" I've decided to retire from my short career as an iHub moderator for EBC, the recently public and ultra-conservative Massachusetts bank, which was the largest mutual bank in the country (based on how you measured that) until the October IPO at $10 subscription. Still a great investment at $17+. (Another analyst just jumped in with a $19 target. I see $21 myself.) But, banks are not sexxy enough for iHub, so I will adjourn on EBC matters from iHub, but call it to your attention as something better than a CD. (Doesn't count; don't sue me; etc.)
For now, I'll just focus on ANIP for iHub.
This is a fascinating small company, and not expensive. Can't wait for the call. Good luck.
Hello, self. It'$ me.
Another analyst, Seaport Global, now piling on board with JPM and the like with a $19 projection.
What's happened since the $10 subscription price in October? This BORING bank, the biggest in Massachusetts among demutualized peers, is now trading at $17.71/share, not a bad move for those who subscribed at $10, or who bought at $12 when I started this board.
Ho hum. Widows and orphans only. Hot money types need not apply.
FYI/ March 2 is the Ex-date for the inital quarterly dividend. Six cents not a big deal, but you know that will grow as they pare down the efficiency ratio of over 50%, a relic from mutual bank culture.
The insurance / benefit subsidiary is a nice compliment to a conservative banking operation, which hardly burped during COVID days.
Good luck to all. I'm not going to pursue this further on iHub unless there is interest and intelligent contribution from others.
JTFM, I agree that ANIP had no choice on equity grants. If we don't pay, we do not get players. I'm hopeful that the new team will get everyone rich. There is just no looking back on what's been wasted in the past.
I note you are very hopeful, in addition to Libigel and Corti, that there is actually a future for ANIP with other drugs development. I'll defer to you and others on this; it's alphabet soup to me.
I don't see rabbits in the hat to overcome the $100M + debt they took on to buy out the convertibles (at $68.25/share). It's all about this Corti filing, at least in the short term.
For the long term? I thank my lucky stars to have sold ANIP at a huge loss. The EBC IPO ($10 for subscribers) has worked out spectacularly, and I see an easy move from todays's $17+ to $21 by year end. For boredom, I created an iHub board for this fabulous investment: conservative with honest growth in its future. I mostly talk to myself there. Not sexxxiest enough to recommend a newly public bank, even though EBC is still below book and dominant in Massachusetts.
If the ANIP call is positive, I'll be back in. Moth to a flame.
Weird, weird, times we invest in. And that's with relative world peace. Watch what happens in the Pacific and Mideast with the new administration, which wants to rely on European "allies" to deal with China and Iran. Good news at least for our troops. They get to stay in Germany. Best post in the world, protecting us from over-lagered frauleins. Only a fool (we elected one) would keep spending what we do to support Germany's welfare state.
I'm hoping Bitcoin does not fare too badly ($53,000 after the $25,700 recommendation), but think physical Gold may actually be ready for a move up.
Boring profits are no fun. That's the only conclusion I can reach as I "talk" to myself about EBC, now valued at over $3B after the IPO, and still trading less than book.
Now trading at $17.10. Not bad from the $10 subscription price customers were offered on demutualization, and a "conservative" profit since the $12 opening on the IPO date in mid October. Sorry for being such a drag on the FOMO party stampede for worthless companies.
Analysts all plugging this at $18.5 and up, and it will go higher. I see Hingham Savings tradng at close to 2 x book with a $500M cap. It's well-run, with an efficiency ratio of a mere 25%. EBC, coming from a mutual bank culture, has an efficiency ratio over 50%. Do you think they won't reduce that? Money in the bank for earnings increases.
You should listen to the conference call. We will have our first dividend in March. We will no longer contribute 10% of profits to charity (because the EBC Foundation was given an enormous 8% of the stock in the IPO - a huge endorsement for charity with the Foundation now having way over $100M), and no longer a drag on earnings. A Win-win for all, and I hate that expression, but it applies here.
I'll admit, my Bitcoin is doing better, but I sleep well with EBC and see at least $21 (conservatively) before year end with a dividend that will easily grow.
JMHO, of course. Buy Bitcoin.
JTFM, Your message is a model for good communication: concise and clear.
I'm not real optimistic it will be picked up in this call, but if there were even a whisper, ANIP stock would explode. We are now in a market of hopes and dreams, not real reality. (Why else would Bitcoin be trading at $55,000 ?) Even the remotest reference to your theme would ignite a big move up. Can you imagine if Cathy Wood from Arc bought into this as an idea?
Anyway, I'm thinking your well articulated theory will not be a subject for this announcement, but it's a possibility in future. My prediction:
1. The Corti filing will be announced to be on schedule or maybe a little behind schedule to get things right. This is anticipated and will not move the stock a lot.
2. The new 3 person team will be described in more detail. We are definitely paying for them. Look at the Form 4s, a combination of unrestricted grants and non-vested options. (The beauty of non-GAAP accounting is you can pretend you are not giving away the company to executives, but ANIP needed to create an entirely new team, and is doing that.)
3. I don't see a compelling reason to buy the stock ahead of the announcement.
This is a very positive bit of news.
They are hiring someone who will focus on CORTI marketing. Why do that if there is concern about the application? Hooray.
In the last paragraph, we also see another courteous boot to a member of the old guard.
"Pursue other opportunities." That's an obit if you ever read one in corporate life. Nikkhil is making decisions.
I've never seen a company delay its year end earnings announcement so that it could report good news. There's usually something wrong.
I see 3 possibilities for the delay, one of them good:
1. Need to restate financials with a major write-off after internal scrubbing.
2. Delay or scrapping of Corti filing. (I doubt they are delaying the financials just to report a successful filing after the fact. If the submission were on schedule, they could have done exactly like last year: announce earnings, say submission was on schedule, and announce after submission.)
3. A glimmer of hope could be that they are already in merger talks just a few months after shelling out all that stock for the new CEO.
I pick Door #3. Good luck.
JTFM, I agree.
I don't blame new CEO at all for the loss through 9/30. Much of the loss was the cost of severing Art and the employees involved with the first CORTI filing. Pat was probably the lynchpin for all of this, and for hiring a new CEO, and finding the new directors who have good credentials. (We are stuck with Brown as the Board representative of the largest investor group, but he will hopefully now get better input. His instincts in recent years have been pretty bad, including taking on $100M + in debt so that shares wouldn't convert at $68.25.)
Anyway, even backing out the costs for severance of Art et al, I just couldn't get to $.94/share by any stretch, except to use hocus-pocus non-GAAP numbers. That was really my question.
It disappoints me that these blurbs from Schwab, Merrill and the like don't point out they are reporting non-GAAP estimates. This doesn't matter to the typical "investor," who doesn't read financial statements, but over the long term, GAAP counts.
Merrill is about the same as Schwab. These estimates are nuts.
Where would earnings come from to make 90 cents/share in the 4th quarter?
The September 10-Q shows ANIP with a $1.58 LOSS for the 9 months ended in September. The September quarter itself was only a 4 cent gain.
A 90 cent earnings projection for the 4th quarter seems wildly off.
These have to be algorithems gone wild, or non-GAAP make believe numbers.
What am I missing?
Earnings. The Schwab site says $0.94 is expected.
Question:
1. Does this mean $0.94 earned in the 4th quarter or in all of 2020?
2. Is this a GAAP projection, or phony non-GAAP ?
If this is right - that ANIP is expected to have $0.94 GAAP earnings for the 4th quarter, it's a screaming buy.
The full Schwab cite.
Fourth Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced 02/25/2021. With 3 analysts covering ANIP, the consensus EPS estimate is $0.94, and the high and low estimates are $1.00 and $0.90, respectively.
The Board is actually fairly new, and quite accomplished. Brown is the only long termer, but he represents the largest shareholder group.
Pera (2020), Thoma (2020) and Walsh (2019) have real credentials. Lalwani is 2020 also. When you call for a sweep I think you are aiming the wrong way and late. These directors look pretty solid to me.
"Cleaning house" is such an easy phrase, but I wonder what that really would mean for ANIP now.
What is the "house?"
Stock investors think of CEOs and Boards. Reality is that the Board is much improved, with directors who have real credentials. For better or worse, ANIP also has a new CEO.
So for cleaning "house", you need to ask about the quality of employees at levels below the C-Suite.
There was certainly a failing with the Corti filing, but most of those lower level employees have already been "cleaned." (by June, if I recall)
So who is left to "clean?" For Corti, it sounds like they are subcontracting what's left of the filing to an outside firm of non-employees. Clearly necessary, but staffing with connsultants will never make you rich in the long term.
So who's left that does not need to be "cleaned?" This gets me back to a long-time concern that never resonated here. Can they get real scientific talent to live in Baudette, MN? Maybe they don't need the talent, and maybe it's a commodity business that can thrive with mediocre scientific talent?
I'm sceptical that any company, especially selling pharma, can prosper without a strong bench. With hindsight, I know now that my gut was right that there was something lacking in the talent department in Baudette.
For now, no question. We have smarter financial types at the Board and CEO level. Maybe that's enough. I wonder though why anyone real smart would want to live in Baudette, and educate their kids there, instead of living near San Diego, Boston, or other locations more receptive to the types of people who are smart enough to do this kind of work.
I'm sure that Baudette is a lovely place suited to a small and undercapitalized vision, but it seems like Lake Wobegone to me, and the wrong place for success.
Keeping Catty in jewels.
Since the contest start, ANIP up 12.1% from $28 to $31.38
BUT, proving there is no sanity left in the market or the world,
Bitcoin up 72.1% !! Bitcoin has now moved from $25,700 to $44,217.