Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Ackman will drive FNMA if Liquidation Pref goes to 0. Ackman by himself can drive the SP to $10 like he said in an interview earlier this year.
Ackman stated Fannie Mae will be the stock of 2021. Google Ackman and view it for yourself ...
I suspect other funds will be piling in if the LP goes to 0. That is the lead domino that will drive all other items into place.
Good luck!
With the Liquidation Pref going to 0, Ackman by himself can pump and hold this at $10 USD. First domino with several others to follow.
Guaranteed other funds will follow suit with Ackman.
Ackman will gaslight FNMA if SCOTUS 0s out liquidation preference. Will Paulson or Berkowitz gaslight JPS?
I think Paulson and Berkowitz, and many others, will gaslight Commons = FNMA.
JPS - it’s not that complicated...
Good luck!
Looks like JPS FNMAS being setup for a fall via headfake ... careful now. Tim Howard called ur investment a quagmire. Time to hedge into FNMA Commons.
Bill Ackman says easy $10 if Liquidation Pref goes to 0. Bill Ackman will be purchasing probably 50 to 100$ million more commons. A lot of other funds will see the writing on the wall and will follow suit.
Cmon in, JPS, the Commons water is fine ... This aint the Big 12 no there ya hear!
What proof do u have it isn’t going to be written ddown to 0$? Can play these games all day
Rick, more importantly Ackman believes we print $10 after Scotus. Guess what? He can print that by himself - once Liquidation Pref goes to 0 it is all academic! How many other Ackmans are out there and Jr. Ackmans?
All the JPS bluster will be gone ...
Who else besides Ackman is going to be buying $50 to $100 million more shares of commons?
Last chances to rebalance your GSE portfolios, JPS. Don’t listen to the discredited JPS posters who want to keep you in your trade. Now’s the time to sell some FNMAS and buy some FNMA to get exposure to the significant upside.
There is already a reason JPS is down ~50% relative to Commons. An inconvenient fact the JPS vocal crowd overlooks. You’ve been warned to rebalance to Commons.
Good Luck - and Tim Howard CFO of Fannie who issued the very JPS FNMAS shares you invested in call those very same shares an emphatic “quagmire.” It was a strong and rare candid moment.
JPS, do you feel better about your investment now? I guess they’re doing their job, not for you but for themselves.
FNMAS, be careful about adding. Looks like its getting ready to drop ...
Luvan - that person has been proven incorrect so many times ...
Tim Howard is calling JPS a quagmire for a reason. I’m sure any other points brought up by that person can be easily disputed. I, personally, as well as many others have proven that person wrong countless times. Their credibility has evaporated. At some point, which was a while back now, you stop reading long diatribes that ate easily disputed. Becomes a waste of time ... As is paying for posts to be at the top of IHub will fool JPS investors to stay in their quagmire trade ...
Why is JPS down 50% relative to commons over the past 90 days? Could it be Tim Howard called it clearly and called Kaoboy basically a wishful JPS investors, concocting scenarios to justify a JPS investment?
Looks like the JPS community is finally seeing the writing on the wall. If you want 50% of par, great! Enjoy.
If you want more, best to rebalance the GSE portfolio to commons before it is too late.
Curious, for the record, I'm a fan of Gaby. She was honest in her analysis about a Trump loss and what would happen to JPS vs Commons. So far her prognostication on the Common's side is correct, outperforming JPS by some 50% over the past 90 days.
I suspect we'll see an updated timeline once SCOTUS rules.
Any DTA beyond what is being asked for from SCOTUS will force retained earnings before cap raise, unless some agreement can be worked out.
Lastly, Tim Howard had a moment of brutal honesty when he said JPS is a quagmire trade, even though he had/has a Berkowitz paymaster. That wasn't a flippant comment ... As you get older and are retired you have more brutally honest commentary ...
Good luck, JPS ...
Curious, I’m not sure that is true. Counsel will need to motion for extended discovery. Lamberth may decide any further potential facts are not controlling in the case. Representing contract claims against a quasi-government entity where JPS investors knew what they were getting into is going to be a more difficult sell than many JPS are hoping for.
Remeber, Pags, ROLG, etc., all thought a settlement or the Big Bang was going to happen. The certainty exuded by JPS was impressive. But in the end it was just plain dead wrong!
But of course the contract claims are a sure thing, right?
Rick, always looking to assign a reason ... i prefer to think SCOTUS ... all aboard!
I’m not sure that’s good news for JPS contract claims. Obviously, counsel was hoping for more information out of SCOTUS for said contract claims. Now Lamberth will not provide Plaintiffs with more time to formulate the full case.
Not sure the outcome of the case is such a sure thing as JPS want folks to believe ...
Curious - slow down ... get ur stuff together ... when coherent I’m happy to talk ...
Curious, why did Tim Howard call your trade a quagmire?
I wish you best of luck on your back dividends and par+. I may pickup some more FNMAS at $3.50.
Pacer number?
Curious - do u have a link? Because counsel didn’t want to have the court issue yet another schedule order that could be delayed and wanted future dates dependent upon SCOTUS.
That, to me, means June 2023 for a trial in Lamberth for JPS contract claims.
The odds of direct claims being allowed to continue are small
The odds of dividends being turned on soon are null
The odds of a fast recap are null
The odds of a new cap rule after SCOTUS are high
JPS (FNMAS, FNMAT) are a quagmire. No reason to own JPS compared to Common (FNMA) as JPS is down ~50% compared to Commons and falling.
All JPS Investors, please be aware of posters who appear to be criticizing commons. They are only doing that to keep you in your inescapable JPS trade.
Good Luck!
Luvan - you forgot that the cap rule will be amended.
How long for that to happen, Luvan?
CapWealth
Meet the team ...
https://www.capwealthgroup.com/our-team
Lamberth is most likely now June 2023! A lot more volume in FNMA at this point in time today than JPS. JPS are continuing to hemorrhage.
The Market is speaking! JPS investors, there are other JPS investors who are trying to keep you in your trade. They do not have your best interests in mind. They see that JPS is stuck in a Quagmire like Tim Howard said, the CFO who issued the JPS that you are stuck in.
FnF have paid over $308 billion to the US gov. All FnF are looking for is to have that $308 billion be applied to their debt so their debt to the US government can be deemed paid. That simple.
JPS are a quagmire. Lamberth = June 2023 Now. Look for further selling this week. $5 FNMAS is calling. Market is speaking. Lamberth has been delayed and there is no relief in sight for JPS quagmire trade. JPS is down over 50% relative to commons over the past ~90 days.
TIAA CREF has shares in JPS. TIAA CREF wrote off those JPS shares years ago and they are one of the most conservative firms in the world.
Chess - not to mention the $308 billion already paid to the government.
FnF have paid their dues.
Here is JPS's logic: FnF have paid $308 billion to Treasury but Treasury will now further dilute commons after probably 14 years in conservatorship and paying their dues to the government. Because Treasury can?
Everyone should await SCOTUS. Meanwhile, JPS will continue to be under pressure as Lamberth has been kicked down the road yet again!
Can we sticky Guido’s post?
Thanks, Guido! Great post. Like I said you’re more patient with folks than me. I call it like I see it and move - know no other way ...
Guido, don’t you find it a little strange that Ackman has a major endorsement of Commons and Pags, head of Investors Unite, is mum?
Honestly, with allies like JPS, who needs enemies? Not saying Pags is against Commons, but it’s a bit disingenuous to say Investors Unite represents everyone.
Also, Fisher - Commons advocate who should be held on a pedestal as their legal actions are only derivative - submitted an amicus to SCOTUS not supporting direct claims for good reason. Leads to “self-serving” legal outcomes, which JPS is all about.
I suspect SCOTUS will crush direct claims.
Guido, focusing only on Fannie assuming Freddie is the same, Pagliara’s Cap Wealth Fund has .5% of his fund in FNMA and ~10% of his fund in JPS. That is even after he added Commons.
I see a clear conflict of interest.
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/capwealth-advisors-llc#tabholdings_tab_link
Guido, do you have any numbers in terms of % increase of his portfolio? Are Commons 1% of his GSE portfolio, 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%?
I ignore personalities ... need quantitative numbers...
So let me get this right. Tim Pags says there will be a big bang and there isn’t. He admits he was wrong.
Ackman comes put and talks about how the LP will be written down by Scotus. Tim Pags, as the Investors Unite lead, has absolutely no comment and emphasizes nothing about that.
Now Tim Pags says no retrospective relief from Scotus but Ackman says yes to retrospective relief.
What gives? Tim Pags is more heavily concentrated in JPS and Ackman in Commons.
Why is the Investors Unite lead not representing shareholders evenly ... the conflict of interest seems pretty high!
Now that Lamberth is delayed to Feb 2023, or probably beyond that to Jun 2023, JPS is absolutely dead money.
Good luck JPS! No pedestals ...
Nor did AIG pay $300+ billion to the US gov ... Nor did AIG have a 10% dividend payment as part of their terms. Nor was was AIG subject to an NWS send all profits ti Treasury ...
Night and day sifferemces ... but Shadow already knew that
Shadow, care to comment on the specifics above?
Nor did AIG pay $300+ billion to the US gov ... Nor did AIG have a 10% dividend payment as part of their terms. Nor was was AIG subject to an NWS send all profits ti Treasury ...
Night and day sifferemces ... but Mike already knew that
Looks like Lamberth trial in Feb2023 for JPS
Good Luck, JPS! Probably Two years out now and most likely the Cap Rule be changed ... Laslty, no court will approve a predatory conversion of JPS to Commons as a settlement ... Ciao ... Bella
Lastly, Bradford’s Seeking Alpha articles were no friends to Commons ... he knew what he was doing ... u folks who forgive - God bless
Here’s another question for Bradford. And when Calabria is gone, is a new Cap Rule proposed more in line with affordable housing? How long will that take?
Follow the investment bankers like Pags said? The gov doesn’t care about a couple investment banking firms. They can wait years for those efforts. Biden wants his FHFA director to begin affordable housing plans and a lower cap rule will be part of that.
First step of getting out of a hole is to stop digging... aka ... stop putting 12 months put there ...
Guido, ur a better man than me ...
If Collins wins on the APA claim on remedy, the Liquidation Preference goes to 0. The government is not challenging FnF have paid $300 billion to Treasury.
I have a very hard time believing “Direct” claims will be allowed. The think it was Breyer who said these are quasi-government entities. I don’t think direct relief will be granted as the harm to the companies outweighs the harm to the individual shareholder - google Tooley Test for more information.
Once direct claims are DOA, the companies from any restructuring perspective will never, ever convert JPS into commons.
Here is the prayer for relief. See a) and b) for NWS prospective and LP written down to 0, respectively.
Bradford, good to see you saying SCOTUS will 0 out the Liquidation Preference per the APA claims and the ultra vires NWS action by Treasury. An accounting entry deeming the $300 billion paid to Treasury.
Well said .. I guess the follow up question is, why own JPS again?
Jog, and I own garbage JPS FNMAS and FNMAT and they are horrible investments and I think anyone who owns them now after Trump lost is setting themselves up for huge disappointment. I’ve owned FNMAS and FNMAT since 2017 and will certainly complain about them because I can.
Tim Howard was right that the JPS FNMAS and FNMAT shares are garbage and a quagmire. Yet I still own them ...
See how easy that is?
Jog - Your JPS FNMAS and FNMAT shares are dropping and will continue to drop. JPS after Trump lost and didn’t take action before the end of his term means the JPS investment is a trap. JPS investors are stuck and there is no way out without taking a loss relative to Commons. The sooner yall figure that out the more you will profit.
JPS posters like yourself keep trying to provide hope to other JPS investors. You are doing them a disservice.
Bill Ackman has stated Commons outperform JPS in almost every scenario. The scenario Bill Ackman envisioned where Commons don’t outperform JPS is if Trump/Mnuchin acted. News flash - they didn’t. Ackman hedged with JPS during the Trump administration due to the possibility of Trump helping Paulson and Berkowitz. Again, it didn’t happen and that scenario has passed.
The Freshman team, e.g., Bradford, followed that mind set when moving from Commons to JPS. He is now also stuck in the Tim Howard Quagmire trade (Tim H was the CFO who issued the JPS FNMAS and FNMAT and calld them a Quagmire after Trump didn’t act.)
FNMAS is down ~50% relative to commons FNMA over the past 90 days.
This is the reason they need to keep a narrative about Scotus not giving any retrospective remedy because they know they will forever be significantly outperformed. If they endorse the retrospective remedy it defeats the purpose of owning JPS FNMAS and FNMAT and immediately says JPS should sell their shares and buy FNMA commons.
All JPS, be careful listening to people who want to keep you in an investment for their benefit and not yours.
Good luck!
Trunk - Mnuchin is gone and has no say - more dream theories for JPS. This one is laffable ...
It’s pretty simple - the market is speaking. JPS continue to drop.
JPS thought Trump, Mnuchin, and their connections to Betkowitz, back in 2016, were going to pay “dividends.” It never materialized ... now they are holding onto dear life, drumming up any theory to keep JPS in their trade.
I know I keep saying it, but there is a reason JPS is now called a quagmire.
JPS continues to drop while Commons hold. This is not random chance - it is factual and the reason you see more messages from JPS to try and hold the line. The line is faltering and they will continue to retreat until the SCOTUS rout relative to Commons.
FNMAS is down almost 50% relative to commons over the past ~90 days.
Good luck, JPS!
Mike, JPS FNMAS is down ~44% at exactly 90 days relative to Commons FNMA.
Go here: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FNMA,FNMAS
Click on the bar below and enter 90 days instead of 200 (which is too long anyway based on recent events =election, cap rule, LA, etc.)
When you put in 90 days you will see the fact that FNMAS is down ~44% relative to commons FNMA and at ~87 days FNMAS is down ~52% relative to Commons FNMA.
Looking forward to tour acknowledgement.
JPS is a quagmire per Tim Howard - CFO who issued the very same JPS shares (FNMAS, FNMAT, etc) you guys are invested in. Obviously folks are dumping JPS ... there’s a reason ...
Good luck!
Naveed - Skeptic says sell JPS FNMAS.
Looks like he is recommending Commons FNMA because Commons are holding just fine while JPS (FNMAS, FNMAT, etc) are down over 50% over the past 90 days relative to Commons FNMA.
Tim Howard, the CFO of Fannie who issued the same JPS you are invested in, called your shares a quagmire. That is coming from a CFO of one of the largest companies in the world who understands finance and investments.
I suggest selling your JPS (FNMAS, FNMAS, etc) before you are the last bag holder ...
Good luck! 5$ FNMAS coming soon. I may buy some at $3.50. Good luck ...