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JPS bagholders will be right there with us - no chance in heck after 13 years JPS are rewarded over Commons. You’ll be right there with us.
Quagmire = no way out ...
Freddie JPS bagholder - you better hope that doesn’t happen. B.c JPS would be converted to be right there with the rest of us before that happened.
You’re now seeing why JPS are considered a Quagmire trade. There is absolutely no way out. Tim Howard, the CFO of Fannie who issued the shares you’re invested in, called your JPS shares a “quagmire,” because there is no way out.
Best to sell 50% of your JPS for FNMA Commons. After a favorable Scotus it’s over and Commons forever Outperform- good luck!
There won’t be a settlement until long after a new cap rule is proposed. Biden’s admin is done with Calabria. They will need to take time, repropose and finalize the new cap rule by q4 2022 to q2 2023.
Meanwhile, Scotus remand, CFC Sweeney/Schwartze, and finally Lamberth.
Then maybe a settlement in 2023.
Government does not have the same concerns corporate america does. Here’s a sumple scenario, where gov gives the GSEs 150$ billion in DTAs. FHFA in a new cap rule could structure the new rule to count DTAs as CET1. Also, a new cap rule could count JPS as CET1. This essentially recaps the GSEs and settles all lawsuits.
Rest assured it will be impossible for a JPS settlement at the expense of Commons, or vice versa, as there are a ton of legal precedent preventing such actions.
Calabria is gone soon ...
So many ways for this to work out after Scotus ... a favorable Scotus forever solidifies Commons as a front runner ... may take JPS time to realize but it will be true ...
$504 per share!
$503 per share!
$502 per share!
You’re right! JPS is a Quagmire per Tim Howard, the CFO of Fannie who issued the very quagmire shares JPS is invested in.
Careful FNMAS JPS, "they" are painting the tape ... careful about buying now ...
FNMA Commons $502 per share!
FNMAS JPS $12 per share!
Ya see the difference!
FNMA Commons $501 per share!
JPS FNMAS & FNMAT need to sell and buy FNMA Commons!
Don't miss out on significantly more upside that Tim Howard, former CFO who issued the very JPS shares you are invested in, called your investment a quagmire.
You are now only riding the coat tails of commons ... rotate now or be left twisting in the wind with no hope of dividends or conversion - no court in the world would approve a predatory conversion and FnF won't mistreat one class for another after 13 years of conservatorship.
Don't fall prey to the JPS fear mongering to keep you in your trade. They are rotating but they don't want you to also!
Good luck, JPS!
Awaiting the JPS FNMAS timberrrrrrr ... Careful, JPS!
JPS FNMAS shares continue to lag behind Common. JPS shares are ~%50 down relative to Commons FNMA over the past 100 days. Ask yourself, why?
The reason is there are no dividends for JPS and no conversion. Plus, their counsel in front Lamberth for their "ironclad" contract claims wanted more time for more discovery based on SCOTUS. As if they haven't had enough time already! Basically, direct claims are DOA, which means nothing for JPS.
Tim Howard, the very CFO who issued the JPS FNMAS, FNMAT, etc., shares called them a "quagmire" because there are no dividends for basically ever and the best JPS can hope for is 50% of par value.
JPS, if I were you, I'd be converting at least 50% of my JPS holdings to commons. The disinformation by the JPS folks who want to keep you in your trade speak to fear tactics to keep you in your trade.
As Bill Ackman said, Commons outperform JPS in (now) all scenarios.
Good luck, JPS!
On a side note I do appreciate it
$500 per share!
Anticipation, then momentum, and it moves ... simple ... find it funny folks are putting out there "why?"
It's obvious ...
In the context of timing - 13 years vs 2 months?
2 months is 1.2% of the total time from the ultimate legal venue in the USA. Hence the SP increase ...
Hilarious ...
Eternal? You're here all the time ... SCOTUS?
After April 1st the artificial ceiling was removed ...
I'm sure Tim P's book is more colorful than the ~200 page court brief presented before SCOTUS that summarizes the whole epic saga.
If FnF hit then I'll buy the second edition with the Disney ending ...
Bradford, if Liquidation Pref goes to 0, why do I own JPS (FNMAS, etc) again?
Thanks, Bryndon. What are the scenarios you see transpiring if SCOTUS renders a favorable opinion based on the combination of some or all of the following bulleted items? Obviously the opinions may directly, or indirectly via remand to the 5th circuit, provide guidance on remedy.
- LP written down to 0
- NWS cancelled going forward
- $30 billion returned or $150 billion returned - includes ~$26 billion in nominal damages - obviously big difference
- Only derivative claims allowed via APA
- Both direct and derivative claims via APA
I’m assuming the NWS takings claims would continue in the CFC and still provide shareholders with the substantial remedy you stated in the prior post providing SCOTUS didn’t put $150 billion back in the GSEs coffers, which to me would moot the takings claims.
Notwithstanding the $150 billion remedy directly or on remand from SCOTUS, would you still believe substantial relief is still possible for shareholders in a venue like the CFC? Even with appeals going up to and probably denied by SCOTUS?
TIA
FastEd - why is counsel in front of Lamberth asking for more time for discovery with Scotus? They should have performed plenty of discovery without SCOTUS.
That is a worry item. To assume Lamberth is a foregone conclusion when SCOTUS is around the corner makes no sense.
Why would you keep 100% of your GSE portfolio in JPS with limited upside due to no dividends and no conversion?
JPS are down relative to Commons ~50% over the past 100 days. Once Trump lost JPS got shafted.
Tim Howard, the CFO who issued the very same JPS you are invested in, called your shares a “quagmire” because there will be no dividends for about a decade.
Good luck!
Convert to Commons (FNMA) now JPS (FNMAS), or you will miss on the Commons upside.
Not asking to convert all, but a 25 to 50% conversion now will pay the dividends you won't get by holding JPS.
Good luck!
JPS FNMAS - Tim Howard called your shares a quagmire. He was the CFO who issued the shares you are invested in.
Notice how you are riding the coat tails of Commons. You won't get dividends. Counsel for JPS in front of Lamberth asked for more time to get more discovery out of SCOTUS. More discovery? It's been several years ... why do you need more discovery?
That doesn't look good and seems like JPS will be left twisting in the wind!
Do you want unlimited upside via Commons and a SCOTUS ruling or be blocked at 50% of PAR for JPS?
No dividends!
No conversion!
After SCOTUS it will be too late to manually sell JPS and buy Commons to get exposure to much more SP appreciation. Bill Ackman says Commons outperform JPS in (now) all scenarios considering Trump did nothing for Paulson and Berkowitz.
Good luck JPS!
Rob, thanks!
Bryndon, any commentary re the DOJ letter and Thompson’s response? Had to ask
Kylie - the folks who got hurt the most were JPS. They were all tea leave reading thinking Mnuchin, Trump, Paulson, and Berkowitz would make a deal. Even Ackman hedged by purchasing JPS, although I think he has sold since.
JPS got trapped, Bradford got trapped. The day Trump lost is the day JPS should’ve sold.
No chance for preferential treatment ...
That is the main travesty of the last 4 years. JPS would be very wise to rotate into Commons - although it may be too late by Monday.
Pretty lame article - still trying to keep JPS in their quagmire trade. If you use the translator on Bradford’s articles to benchmark it to reality, Commons now outperform orders of magnitude beyond JPS.
This whole “whoa is me” preface is done for a purpose way beyond being transparent. And, frankly, who really knows this guy ...
JPS’s investment thesis hasn’t changed yet now Commons are listed higher? With all sorts of negativity to follow the SP?
JPS, Tim Howard, the former CFO who issued the shares you are invested in, called those shares in a rare and candid statement, a “Quagmire.”
No dividends and all Bradford’s article is attempting to do is keep you in your quagmire trade.
After putting the Bradford JPS translator on that article, it’s best to rotate at least 50% of your GSE portfolio into Commons FNMA, as stated and according to Bradford you have nothing to lose and everything to gain as Commons have significantly more upside.
JPS (FNMAS, FNMAT) has lost ~50% value relative to Commons (FNMA) over the past ~90 days.
Smart money is leaving JPS and JPS will be twisting in the wind for a long time.
Bradford rotated into JPS when Trump was elected. Now that the Trump administration didn’t act on behalf of Paulson and Berkowitz (JPS investors), Tim Howard rightly called the JPS investment a quagmire now that Trump didn’t act. JPS are stuck ... No one is going to convert JPS to Commons now.
And who listens to a self-proclaimed GSE expert who finances their investment through high interest credit cards? He’s been wrong over and over again - first rule is to stop digging ...
Definitely possible, Guido ...
Skeptic, Agreed, JPS FNMAS, even with a favorable SCOTUS ruling, is destined to be a quagmire. Expect JPS FNMAS even after a Liquidation Pref to 0 Scotus ruling, direct or indirect, to drop to 3.50$ per share as there won’t be dividends for a long long time.
Plus, looks like Fairholme counsel is hoping for more discovery out of SCOTUS? More time for discovery? That doesn’t look good as they’ve had plenty of time.
Plus, direct claims are dead ...
Markets are closed for Good Friday ... If they announce at 9:30am on Monday ... oooph ... some folks are playing with fire ...
Ganuco - you mean April 5th? haha ... watch them announce at 9:30 just as the market opens ... haha
Skeptic, agreed, JPS FNMAS is an absolute quagmire trade exactly like Tim Howard said. BTW, if folks forgot, Tim Howard was the CFO who issued the very same JPS FNMAS, FNMAT shares JPS is invested in, and he called them a "quagmire" trade.
JPS FNMAS is down ~50% compared to FNMA Commons over the past ~90 days.
JPS FNMAS, FNMAT really should rotate some $ into FNMA Commons as there is significantly more upside than JPS, which will languish in a quagmire down to probably $3.50 over the coming weeks.
Lastly, JPS is illiquid and it will take a while to get out of the trade, aka, quagmire ...
Good luck, JPS!
Couldn't help yourself ...
Wow, nice and peaceful all day. Who wants to break the peace?
KaaaaBOOOOMMM!
Obviously April Fools ...
Here's some shooting from the hip speculation ...
Most recent letter from DOJ was for the remaining hold outs to demonstrate that the LA from Jan 14th did nothing to resolve the NWS and Liquidation Preference to 0. That back channel communication is the leak why we are going up. DOJ folks have leaked the communication to friends and family.
Those holdouts got their response from DOJ and were able to finalize their opinions - these are professional legal writers.
Now they release!
There is no more deliberations - the votes were cast probably at least a month ago, if not prior, as is the case for SCOTUS. They vote quickly while the case and oral arguments are fresh in their mind ... They may vote again ... etc... but ...
Ackman will blast FNMA to $10 per share by himself if the Liquidation Preference is 0'd out and the government is deemed paid.
Expect the warrants to be 0'd out to be a fast following domino!
Boo! Sleep well!
Chaser - and they announce new opinions almost every week ... have fun!
Supreme Court Ruling possibly tomorrow.