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Nice
Basically opinions every week til June.
Good news is Scotus can provide injunctive relief on the PSPA while the CFC can provide monetary relief on full over payments. Different approaches in each venue ...
Of course SCOTUS could do it all by themselves and moot all cases by providing by injunctive and monetary relief.
If we get a Gorsuch or Thomas majority opinion it may be close to a bulldozer. A Kavanaugh majority opinion may be close to a bulldozer as well. An ACB majority opinion would be good, everything post-2014 could possibly be returned.
Alito was hard to tell IMO. Need some Rob unitarian executive commentary on Alito to soothe my ruffled feathers ...
Your right on a 1000 - raising Louie to $508 per share for Commons
$506 Per Share!
$505 per share!
Klassic over inflate the JPS then plow funds into Commons to continue macro GSE arbitrage (Commons & JPS) vs micro GSE arbitrage (Commons only & JPS only) ...
Wings, I’m in - I’ll return the favor!
Rick - Calabria is a politically “grateful dead man walking.” He means nothing right now ... and anything emanating from that sea-centric gullet is only “fishy-lips service” ...
Calabria is gone ...
Here is Gorsuch whittling down the Gov's position ... It is an interesting back and forth ... I really hope Thomas or Gorsuch is writing the opinion ... ACB was also very interested in the acting director vs senate confirmed director ... see red bold below ... just sayin ...
Kthomp - if the GSE were allowed to pay back the Gov in 2012, they would've paid back the gov at a marginal profit, say 30 billion, so the gov would've received 210 to 230 billion instead of $308 billion, netting the gov $124 billion in profit.
The premise you state on the two only available remedy options is 100% wrong again.
DoNot - still awaiting a response ...
DoNot - that isn't an answer.
What will make common-centric litigants settle in the CFC given a favorable SCOTUS ruling that gives shareholder litigants leverage?
I think there are folks out there that don't understand the dominoes that fall after SCOTUS ... Want to try another answer?
Can anyone explain what will make the CFC litigants settle if SCOTUS provides a favorable ruling? Especially given the quantity of cases that have been combined in the CFC before Schwartz (formerly Sweeney), and the WaFed plaintiffs are before Schwartz.
Derivative claims = damages for the company.
Several plaintiffs represent common, including WaFed, which won't settle for JPS.
What would entice Common-centric plaintiffs to settle in the CFC with a favorable SCOTUS?
Buehler?
The single director is a flaw in HERA. Being barred from challenging actions enabled by HERA is another big problem.
Could be wiped away. We know we have 2 justices - do we have 3 more?
Warrants exercised = takings = more litigation that prevents recapitalization.
At this point, several folks on this board could make a first pass on all the arguments made from a takings perspective and put a legit brief together citing precedent and case law. Semi-joking.
The point being the core arguments are basically all before the CFC now. HERA says you can’t challenge anything. If SCOTUS affirms derivative can challenge, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a warrant challenge appear after scotus.
more speculation...
Sierra, folks have to admit the laundry comment was funny ...
Bradford, Bryndon, Anyone, Commons, JPS, how do derivative claims settle in the CFC? If they don’t settle isn’t there a good chance we’re going back to Scotus at least for a Cert request? How do you raise capital if the CFC is still in play?
Since the CFC is derivative that includes both common and preferred holders, what would make the CFC litigants settle?
Anyone from JPS who can speak to how the settlement will take place on the takings claims before the CFC with a positive SCOTUS outcome?
Buehler?
Maybe Bryndon could also answer ...
Guido, you may want to ask Bradford my questions regarding the CFC since you appear to have some rapport with Bradford.
I’m very interested to understand how the CFC settles with a favorable Scotus considering the claims are derivative and both Commons and Preferreds have been combined into one lawsuit.
SCOTUS can essentially 0 out the LP while the CFC can repay $124 billion plus damages. A settlement will need to asses everything. Net it all out with the warrants going away and raise capital through retained earnings and third party over 5 years.
Bradford, since you’re answering questions, how do derivative claims settle in the CFC? If they don’t settle isn’t there a good chance we’re going back to Scotus? How do you raise capital if the CFC is still in full play?
Since the CFC is derivative that includes both common and preferred holders, what would make the CFC litigants settle?
JPS FNMAS down ~45 to 50% over the past 3 to 4 months compared to FNMA Commons.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FNMA,FNMAS
Put in 100 to 120 days.
Bradford says Commons are up only 7% more since “they bottomed.” He doesn’t mention who took the hardest hit starting from Q4 2020 when the prior admin lost. FNMA is almost 50% better in value preservation since the prior administration didn’t act.
Why do I care about what the Brookings Institute is saying? How many BI articles have been written through the years that have proven accurate? None.
SCOTUS has been known to do many, many controversial things. Thompson is playing the remedy spectrum game. He is presenting a remedy for the worst case scenario with a victory. Classic hope for the best and plan for the worst.
At worst if the Justices are reluctant to provide more remedy, Thompson is presenting a “compromised” remedy that the Justices would be more willing to swallow. That being said, furthering the spectrum of remedy, Thompson has stated several times Collins is fine with a greater remedy.
This fact is summarized and emphasized in the latest letter in response to the DOJ, focusing directly on the GOV’s stated need to raise capital being based on the bad decisions that go against HERA in preserving and conserving the assets of FHFA’s wards (GSEs) by enacting the NWS.
Without the NWS the GSEs would’ve repaid their way and would be fully recapitalized today. SCOTUS gets it fully. Let’s see what happens because no one knows, but definitely transferring some JPS funds into Commons even if the LP goes to 0 with the overpayments returned, Commons will outperform.
On a side note, I’m very interested in ACB’s senate confirmed director from 2014 commentary in Thompson’s DOJ reply letter and the fact Thompson made a point of emphasis in the letter for her. I know others have commented that ACB could help in mobilizing the conservatives for something more than the LP to 0 and the 10% overpayments being returned until 2020.
Gorsuch, Thomas, ACB, Alito? (I think so) and Kavanaugh (I think so).
Luvan - the full unwinding of the NWS is in play. What happens if the NWS was never implemented? Would ~$300 billion have been paid to the gov? Would the total have been $124 billion overpayment with no ability to pay down the liquidation preference?
Thompson is playing the remedy game. The bare minimum he is asking for is the LP written to 0 and overpayment through payments until 2020 be repaid. Several times Thompson states Collins is fine with “any” additional remedy the court deems necessary. The most recent rebuttal to the DOJ letter supports that fact.
Gorsuch referenced the high number the court was having trouble understanding and coming to terms with. ACB asked point blank are you asking for a check returning the billions. Thompson said no because he knows the astronomical numbers could “shock” the justices.
But the key is as the justices circle around this topic, and the opportunity Thompson got via the DOJ letter to drive home the point that 3rd party capital raises would be unnecessary if it weren’t for the NWS, there is a scenario with a solid probability that cannot be dismissed out of hand that returns the bulk of the NWS payments.
News Flash - no one knows ... Updated Version
JPS was very wrong on Trump acting based on his relationship with Paulson. Hence, JPS losing 50% value relative to Commons. Most likely Paulson and/or Berkowitz have sold a solid % of their JPS Portfolio. Some JPS holders have also rebalanced their GSE exposure to commons.
Tim Pagliara has already been rebalancing. Ackman says Commons outperform JPS in all scenarios now given Trump didn’t act. JPS Losing 50% value relative to Commons means primarily 1 thing. Paulson and Berkowitz have most likely sold large quantities of JPS. Now JPS invents scenarios to get out of a “quagmire” trade per the exact quote from Tim Howard below - CFO of Fannie who issued the JPS shares.
Per Tim Howard, Fannie Mae CFO who issued the very same JPS shares folks are invested in, called those JPS shares a “Quagmire” and JPS are continually inventing scenarios to try and assign value to those shares. Tim’s words not mine in the quote below.
Bradford, you have been wrong more times than anyone can count. You are wrong again. First rule of thumb about getting out of a hole is to stop digging aka stop trying to predict ... you’re wrong ...
The gov doesn’t care and the sept 21 date was a token effort to get legislative action. Guess what, that date means nothing. A whole new approach is going to be tried by Biden.
The settlement folks (you) are the very same folks who dreamed up the JPS fantasy settlement narrative Tim Howard refuted with his JPS quagmire call.
A whole new housing approach by Biden will be unveiled after they get their senate confirmed FHFA director in place, which will take at least 3 months after Scotus rules. Of course if the FHFA still exists post-scotus.
You and your echo chamber friends settlement approach is fantasy ... JPS vastly underestimates the new administration’s plans given the unknowns in play with Scotus. Nor does the government care about giving the GSEs huge tax credits ... the dollar figures mean nothing and ROLG’s view that they do matter don’t. DTAs can easily be allowed to count as CTE1 capital via a new cap rule via a settlement if one were to happen. Stop digging ...
Guido, the amendment is part of the pspa - the restrictions on lending is purely a regulatory - FHFA - item that wouldn’t be put into the pspa imo.
Just the LA put into the execution version of the 4th amendment. Just Calabria “DMW” being Calabria - soon to be escorted down the line ... nothing to see here ...
JPS Quagmire - Bradford, in a magnanimous gesture, addresses a board perennial shorter ... to highlight his agenda ...
As if to think it isn’t hyper transparent...
Quagmire per Tim Howard - Fannie Mae CFO who issued the very same JPS quagmire shares you are invested in ...
FNMA 2.27 +0.06 FNMAS 3.50 -2.72 down
FNMA to $504 per share!
FNMA 2.27 +0.06
Quagmire
Thanks!
Thanks, Guido. Is he affirming the doubling of Ackman’s position in FnF or is he refuting it with that commentary? Tough to tell for me ...
Guido, can u post the comments? Seeking allha wants payments to view ...
Shadow -