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Shadow - vastly different cases and issues ... Van Buren is irrelevant like JPS are about to become.
Good luck, JPS. You’re time is running out ... tic toc ...
Why has FNMAS (JPS) lost 50% value relative to FNMA since Trump lost the election?
Answer: Because JPS banked on Trump and Mnuchin offering favorable terms to JPS.
JPS reality is they are caught in a quagmire trade per Tim Howard, the CFO of Fannie Mae who issued the very same FNMAS shares JPS are invested in.
He calls FNMAS a quagmire because once Trump’s administration didn’t act, FNMAS JPS got stuck with no way out of a quagmire situation. Hence, the reason FNMAS JPS has lost %50 value relative to FNMA Common shares.
The market has spoken and the opportunity for JPS to get out of their quagmire trade is very quickly closing!
Good luck, JPS!
Monday - guaranteed ...
..
Hehe - and $509 per share after Scotus ...
My friend was more blunt ... he just called it a “quagmire ...”
The invisible hand is elastic ...
The arbitrage game may be done - probably a good gig while it lasted. The invisible hand of support may be here ...
Mike - I’m referring to the floor in the shareprice. Looks like someone is accumulating... and will continue to do so until Scotus release date.
Your twitter ref is irrelevant... i agree that the cop shouldn’t be subject to further punishment as he didn’t change the computer record, he just got information he was illegally paid to get.
A new invisible hand may have arrived on the order book ...
Do we get Monday opinion?
Good luck, my JPS friends. Per Tim Howard, JPS is a quagmire trade. You guys are now stuck and the market has spoken. Don't stay trapped in a JPS quagmire trade when per Ackman, Commons outperform JPS in all scenarios.
Even if it goes to July the Common SP will continue to appreciate. Even worse for JPS because they won't keep up with Commons.
JPS should hope for it to be sooner unless of course they're converting to Commons now
Once Trump lost, JPS lost 50% compared to Commons. JPS's relative comparison to Commons is slowly being eroded as buildup to the SCOTUS ruling date nears. JPS will continue to bleed.
We could be close to 3$ if SCOTUS releases in early July.
$508 per share
Yep, all fairly simple if you believe SCOTUS thinks 12 yrs of conservatorship is enough. I do ...
Jeddie - really? “Finally gets it ... ?” Huh ... right before the ruling? How convenient...
Scotus can’t simply provide cursory remedy ... simply being in conservatorship for 12 years, 9 of which was primarily due to the NWS, is penalty enough.
So lets say all SCOTUS does is stop the NWS and allow the 10% overage be returned, and even write the liquidation pref to 0. Let’s say they even provide an injunction preventing another NWS.
Is there anything preventing Treasury and FHFA-C from generating another amendment issuing quarterly warrants, quarterly fixed income products, other securitization via exotic options, etc.? Unless the injunction is crafted in such a way there is blanket coverage preventing the gov from expropriating GSE funds, there will always be an option to game the PSPA contract between two parties (Treasury & FHFA-C) who have already proven they are willing to self-deal.
SCOTUS knows this issue and there is no alternative but to gut the PSPA. As long as that contract exists, there will be no fair treatment to the GSEs. Trying to “tweak” the complex PSPA agreement runs the risk of producing more bad acts.
From the backdrop of a 13 year conservatorship, there is only one alternative. The PSPA agreement can’t be “tweaked,” or the bad actors can do it all over again. This is where the brilliance of the letter agreement comes into play demonstrating how the gov can game the agreement to continue to punish the GSEs.
The warrants are written into the PSPA and will also have to go.
SCOTUS will deem the GSEs debt to society paid.
Navy, thanks for posting the tweets. They really are irrelevant ... more posturing from JPS.
Injunctive relief is simple for PSPA and FHFA-Conservator. A stroke of a pen and an accounting entry. Gov made money and that is simple.
Folks forget warrants are a part of the PSPA. When the PSPA goes so do the warrants.
Any dollar return will be determined upon remand and summary judgment or settlement.
JPS won’t admit - it undermines their investment ... Trump losing crushed JPS conversion hope, hence losing 50% compared to Commons since the election.
got to unscramble the egg so it can't be scrambled again ... PSPA must be destroyed, there is no alternative ...
FHFA-Conservator must also be destroyed ... this conservatorship was a de facto nationalization ... therefore it must be destroyed ... there is no alternative
Catastrophe does not breed omnipotence ... otherwise laws are only applied when suitable ... SCOTUS is about to raze the aforementioned ...
Updated version
got to unscramble the egg so it can't be scrambled again ... PSPA must be destroyed, there is no alternative ...
FHFA-Conservator must also be destroyed ... this conservatorship was a de facto nationalization ... therefore it must be destroyed ... there is no alternative
Catastrophe does not breed omnipotence ... otherwise laws are only applied when suitable ... SCOTUS is about to raze the aforementioned ...
Well said, Nats ... chuckled at the job vacancy
Your guess is as good as mine. I’m hopeful it is tomorrow. We’ll see. Throughout June we get closer and closer to 100%.
75%? I don’t follow ...
Fire - if it wasn’t for those who’ve served, we’d be under england, or speaking spanish, or japanese or german, or having bombs exploding in nyc, chicago, la, etc. russia would have invaded eastern europe and the chinese would own the s china sea, all countries around it, korean peninsula and would invade japan.
The free world depends on those who serve and have served ... it certainly isn’t bbq and hot dogs
Shhhhh - it’s secret!
Thanks, exciting times ahead...
Yes, Ackman will drive everything post SCOTUS.
PSPA and FHFA-Conservator are about to get crushed. Calabria is gone and new Cap Rule coming ...
Plan accordingly - Commons are in a very, very good position ...
A simple remand would’ve happened already - get ready for carving out FHFA-C from everything else, and get ready for the PSPA to be gutted.
Injunctive relief likely on the PSPA ... PSPA is the root of all gov evil imposed upon the GSEs. SCOTUS knows this ...
The only way to resolve this issue so it doesn't knock on SCOTUS's door again is to torpedo the PSPA, which means in all likelihood the warrants will go with it ...
The last thing SCOTUS wants is to hear this case again ... Therefore, the only option is to pound the PSPA into submission, which will include the warrants.
Remedy on dollar damages will be remanded ... which will equal some settlement favorable to shareholders ...
Calabria is gone and FHFA as conservator will likely never exist again soon after SCOTUS ...
FHFA as regulator will persist, as well as HERA, with the director being terminated at will by president ... New director will create a new capital rule less punitive to the GSEs ...
This way legislative action will persist in HERA and SCOTUS will not be rewriting congressional intent.
This will remedy nationalization, by and large ... The PSPA must be terminated otherwise the potential for future litigation remains.
FHFA-Regulator is all that will be allowed to remain post SCOTUS ... FHFA-Conservator will be crushed ... too many bad acts by reckless, unaccountable, and spineless directors ...
I heard Pag's private accounts have been loading up on Commons.
I knew he was smart ...
I do subscribe to the theory that the wait indicates SCOTUS will not simply remand the case. I suspect there will be PSPA injunctive relief which opens the door to all sorts of scenarios. SCOTUS has crushed the gov over and over again this term.
For those who think remedy is scoped due to case by case specific claims, I think you will be in for a very, very rude awakening ...
Fortunately it will be here very soon ...
Fannie from a SCOTUS perspective is not that controversial. No one in america will care when announced on the nightly news. Ho hum ...
Healthcare or Guns has folks rallying around the family “with a pocket full of shells ...” at the dinner table. Fannie and Freddie will be thought of as a cartoon.
Here’s to Tuesday!
Tuesday! haha!
Bill Ackman is not retail ...
Healthcare, Abortion and Guns will be last and those were heard before Collins. Chances are increasing significantly ...
SCOTUS opinion on Thursday.
SCOTUS will push the huge controversial issues like Healthcare, Abortion, and Guns to the full end of the term.
FnF is a relative creampuff compared to the larger issues as Abortion and Guns will bring out the crazys ... Healthcare will bring out the most mobilization. SCOTUS doesn't need that.
FnF - yawn - FnF worked fine before conservatorship and will work fine afterwards. Everyone knows disruption to housing is minimal as FnF worked in a much less regulated fashion for decades and the economy worked fine.
Maybe Thursday!
Healthcare, Abortion, and Guns greatly overshadow FnF. These three topics affect at least 50% of the population if not more.
No one will care about FnF except investors. FnF did fine pre-conservatorship as did the housing market and they both will do fine post-conservatorship.
Rest assured, Ackman, et al, have big plans waiting in the wings post a favorable SCOTUS.
Sell and buy JPS. With your non-Ackman price target you stand to make more - good luck with your new JPS Tim Howard CFO of FnF who call your JPS shares a "quagmire" trade.
Then sell your shares and buy JPS. Good luck!
Ackman, as well as other informed organizations, will drive the SP after Scotus. Those organizations will perform the analysis and drive the price. Ackman says Scotus will be a game changer.
Anonymous message board posters, send messages to Ackman, et al.
JPS (FNMAS, FNMAT, etc) you are stuck in a quagmire trade per Tim Howard, the CFO who issued your shares.
Once Trump lost and Mnuchin did nothing, JPS lost 50% value relative to Commons and is still down that percentage. The market has spoken. Period ...
I’ll stay with Ackman.
Good luck, JPS!
JPS investors should be focused on Bill Ackman. Common retail investors are focused on Bill Ackman.
Bill Ackman will be driving Commons shareprice after a favorable SCOTUS.
TR - Calabria is gone right after Scotus rules. Stopped reading from there ... JPS love Calabria - Calabria will be another nail in the JPS coffin ...
I think Ackman will drive the Commons price. JPS running out of time to rebalance.