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Painful - returning my cheap sunglasses …
Guido - a ton of JPS tanked today ...
They'll def delay the case, but why schedule a conference before July 15th? Makes no sense ... unless ...
Work load, clerks, schedulers, etc., mistakes happen ... but even the slightest foresight would save several folks 30 min to an hour of time ...
Imperfect world ...
sure, but why cause even the slightest of extra work when postponing the conference til July. Lamberth is at the court in July, not like he's taking the whole month off.
Possibly the week of the opinion has been communicated, but not what is in the opinion.
Very strange ...
If we don't get Collins tomorrow, we want at least one opinion written by Breyer.
That leaves only Thomas, Gorsuch, and Alito without a penned opinion for the December arguments, making a case for one of them to pen Collins.
I want Thomas or Gorsuch, although I think Alito would be fine also given his adoption of the unitary executive ethos ...
Watch and learn ...
There is no alternative...
Lumpina, go talk to Amy Howe, a Scotus expert. It is her article and apparently a proven theory based on years of scotus observation.
Odds are it will be by Thomas or Gorsuch. That is very good ...
Thanks, Rick ...
So Thomas and Gorusch haven’t written for Dec. Thomas also spoke during orals, which isn’t always the case.
Predicated on the commentary of a SCOTUS expert, Amy Howe, Thomas and Gorsuch have a solid possibility of writing the majority opinion for Collins, which bodes well for Common shareholders.
Even if it is Alito or Breyer writing the opinion, given their commentary during orals, I’m very encouraged ...
Thanks, GAK - Warrants are in big trouble on multiple fronts ... CFC and SCOTUS via PSPA ... More good news is the warrants were exercised with AIG but obviously have not for the GSEs.
https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2015/jun/16/ex-chief-of-aig-wins-suit-gets-zero-201/
GAK’s post on the successful challenge to the AIG warrants was interesting. GSEs paid back, AIG didn’t ...
Here we go!
because 7 8 9 ...
5 feels left out, and 6 is afraid of 7 ...
That’s what it looks like - why schedule June 15th when you can schedule July 15th? I think some folks bought that news.
FnF paid 120+ billion back to the gov for gov profit ...
All other banks, mortgage servicers, etc., paid 42+ billion back to the gov.
The gov has been repaid ... Scotus knows this ... the only question is: Does the court want to overturn Humphrey's?
Is now the time for Gorsuch, Thomas, and Alito to try. Have they been writing, and rewriting, and rewriting to get an opinion to the point where more judges can join, namely ACB and Kavanaugh?
A favorite - compare the net profit for FnF vs everyone else.
https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list
The irony is that FnF are now being forced to hold bank-like capital levels, but had to pay 10 to 30 times for the top banks more money back to the gov than banks.
It wreaks ... Scotus is about to clean the slaughter house!
Rob, yep. I suspect the jockeying for majority opinion isn’t as much about relief for the GSEs, but centers more on Thomas and Gorsuch trying to overturn Humphrey’s. The facts for this case are straightforward, only bolstered by the gov intent detailed in the sealed docs.
What could be happening here is Thomas and Gorsuch are trying to go after some other precedents and trying to build a majority ...
Mnemonic - Calabria being removed does not hurt Commons, in fact it will help Commons. If Calabria goes, which will happen, the cap rule will be changed with lower capital levels. This will also take time.
All the while the GSEs will be on a solid path to exiting conservatorship. Everyone will know it. JPS will need to convert now at favorable terms or they will be, in the truest sense of the word, in a “quagmire” trade.
Calabria is gone, Guys ... The ramifications of that move are not good for JPS ... We’ve brought up the why several times over the past 6 months ...
Rob, totally understand your point, and I think at a high level there are genuine similarities. I think the similarities stop there, at the 100k foot view.
Once the onion is peeled away the differences are material.
Rob, I think ACA and Collins are significantly different. ACA’s overall mandate (pardon the term) is universal healthcare while also allowing individuals to choose which healthcare they want. A noble cause, one both Republicans and Democrats agree on, they only disagree on the how, and in fact they aren’t that far apart on the how, just sound bite politics.
GSE conservatorship is the executive branch running amok, imposing their will, and nationalizing companies.
IMO, the old cliche of “intent is 9/10ths of the law” will hold true here. Sweeping all profits to gov coffers to be used arbitrarily vs attempting to provide affordable healthcare for all. A very large difference that won’t be lost on the majority of the court.
Guido, so they're saying they want to attempt to legislate the GSE issue?
They don't say ... We've been saying for a while now that they will do that ... More delay for the JPS quagmire trade ... Makes SCOTUS that much more important for JPS to convert now ...
Tic toc!
Eternal - precisely - it's only taking long b.c of varying opinions that need to be accounted for but rest assured - it isn't that complicated ...
All that is required to be understood is that GSEs paid $300 billion to gov. Gov arguments in the lower venues weren't even used before SCOTUS because they know they would've been laughed out of court ...
It is about to end ...
Tic toc ...
JPS - you hear that? It’s the sound of inevitability!
SCOTUS knows the GSEs have paid $300+ billion to the government. It’s over - directly or indirectly - the conversion terms you so desperately want to get out of your quagmire trade are staring you in the face right now!
Convert now at 2.5 to 1, or instead of going from 5 to 1 pre-Trump loss to 2.5 to 1 pre-SCOTUS, you will be lucky if you get a half share of Commons post-SCOTUS.
Tic toc ...
Watch when Ackman throws another $50 to $100 million at this thing after SCOTUS. Who else will Ackman be working with?
The first domino is about to fall ...
Tic toc ...
JPS - tic toc - your window for converting from JPS FNMAS, etc., to FNMA Commons at favorable terms is closing rapidly.
tic toc ... tic toc ... tic toc ...
No - google - wonderful thing ...
JPS FNMAS - careful with the light volume headfake ...
JPS ... tic toc ...
As much as I would be fine if you guessed right ... it's not me. If you get it right I'll admit ...
$510 per share
Lamberth? Who cares?
Here is the high level - the same defenses used in the lower courts aren't used before SCOTUS b.c SCOTUS would laugh them out of the court.
Lower courts don't want to overturn congressional laws, that's a job for SCOTUS.
$50 million dollars worth of FNMA buys will blow JPS out of the water - $50 billion is unnecessary ...
You guys are unbelievable ...
Jog - your question shows you do not understand. It’s over indirectly or directly ...
I really hope JPS aren’t buying their “leader’s” invented theories to keep JPS in their quagmire trade per Tim Howard.
I really hope all the JPS positions being taken on this board are not serious positions. If they are ... oh boy ...
JPS, tic toc ...
I’m offended - I’m significantly better looking than he is!
SCOTUS will not allow for an indefinite conservatorship. There is no alternative ...
The PSPA and FHFA-Conservatorship will be gutted, which includes the warrants ...
Scotus knows $300+ billion has been paid to the gov. Scotus may limit the return of funds via the acting vs senate confirmed director issue to get around the large price tag and remand damages from the NWS starting in 2014 when a senate confirmed director was appointed. That limits the potential return of cash. That is fine ...
At the end of the day an indefinite conservatorship will be ended. There is no alternative ... FnF have paid their debt to society even from the most conservative financial and legal perspective. Therefore, we dance ...
JPS, tic toc ...
JPS - tic toc ...
This is your last chance to convert at favorable terms ... mark this post
The invisible hand of FNMA Commons support has arrived ... this is it ... JPS, these are the best terms for conversion you are going to get before SCOTUS. If you wait, you won’t even get 1:1 terms, and you will have missed out on the ground floor of something spectacular, a once in a lifetime trade.
Good luck, JPS!