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Stinky pinky, good stories that say if one isn't learned in a trade, find someone with an honest reputation to guide them. This is true in acquiring physical gold & silver too.
Think of the U.S. economy like a 50 yr. old race horse. The Fed' & company used to use a quirt type $timulus when they wanted it to go faster. Now it takes a 50,000 volt cattle prod a foot up its rectum
to get a slightly elevated pulse rate.
This is a presidential election year and its no surprise the incumbent will likely make sure the equity markets are helped as much as possible (going into Nov.).
SilverSurfer, good article on deflation-inflation timing. Mauldin wisely doesn't want to stick his neck out too far on the chopping block lol and I don't blame him. The economic game the U.S. has foisted on the world has no set rules to play by. Rules are made up as the game progresses. (As a kid I occasionally played with those who made the rules up during the game. I knew it was cheating : )) And so the economic game goes on with countries scrambling to protect themselves via their own set of rules within the larger framework of rules.
There's a rumor Europe is considering a major (gold) defensive move/rule change which is described by Don Coxe over on King World's Blog. IF the EU actually backs a sizable portion of its debt with gold backed bonds and IF our Fed' decides to put U.S. printing in high gear about the same time it could? result in a swiftly falling dollar value.
Just a thought based on present : ) rules of the game
Stinky pinky, thanks for the Sprott link.
Sprott & company are smart and always seem informed and logical. Two who I always read (of several) are Eric Sprott & Mike Maloney and both wisely refrain from calling gold&silver price turning points.
Sprott says the last 8 months have played out as expected for banks but not for gold. He continues..The question now is how long can this (gold under pressure) go on for... ? Maloney, taking a bird's eye/long range view says what's happening is basically background noise and someday gold&silver will assume a higher value based on the amount of currency printed.
It's accepted that world economies are in uncharted waters. I'm guessing fear is high of what could happen if the present fiat currency system is dropped and this (fear) is what continues to buoy the present system .
IMO THE breaking point can't be accurately forecast. Eventually fear will grow to a tipping point meeting with a Black Swan event that will sufficiently unravel the current system and create a demand for a radically different economic currency system including gold&silver.
SilverSurfer, seems deflation is in process - new job numbers near zilch, oil & metal prices trending down, etc. Is this deflation a tiny puzzle piece or big one in what will happen soon or much later ?
Maloney has often stated deflation would happen before scaring the Fed' into the mother of all printing.
Problem (for me :) is the timing - weeks, months, maybe but not likely years ? Guess I'll continue accumulating on perceived lows : )
Trying to accurately estimate silver's price bottom is near impossible. As they say, timing is everything and IF by chance
someone is fortunate enough to accumulate 'dry powder' in advance
of a major low silver price point and buys - just before an upturn - it would be a dream come true.
The fly in the ointment to accurately being at the right place at the right time with lots of dry powder seems to be figuring what manipulative or - maybe or/and - economic force is stronger than the others. It's sooo complicated but I like to try. lol
For several reasons silver's price moves have been inverse to the dollar's valve for quite some time. (I'm going to ass ume this inverse phenomena is presently the best indicator - possibly a composite of many factors - to use in guessing a major turning point for silver.
In the absence of a (U.S.) QE3 factor and with European bank runs the Euro has been moving full tilt to the 'safety' : ) of the Dollar. This seems to be the main reason for silver's price loss and the dollar's gain in value.
Here comes the tricky part - timing. Several respected analysts generally estimate the Euro will find a base at about 120. Presently the Euro is sitting at 124 so it's got a bit farther to fall IF these analysts are to be correct. Regarding QE3, the latest thinking is that our Fed' wants the dollar at its highest possible value with gasoline & diesel prices down another 5%-10% before dollar printing begins. It knows printing will raise costs at the pump significantly.
In view of the above it seems (to me) we are nearing a possible turning point in silver's price - possibly in the next few weeks.
(A word of caution. Do your own analysis and base your investment choices on your own research. I've been wrong many times : ))
Stinky pinky, nice concise U Tube editorial.
I'm curious to see if oil prices will continue down due to a weakening economy with Obama honeyfuggling economic numbers at the same time.
This way he'll claim lower gas & diesel prices, a reduction in unemployment and improving economic numbers.
SilverEagle, Japan made some unwise choices in exiting a deep recession a couple of decades ago and was still struggling when hit by the recent tsunami. Added to these negatives their population is in an accelerated downward spiral (which will leave a smaller work force supporting their manufacturing base and supporting their retired. Top all this off with the present world economic slowdown/recession and it's safe to say the Japanese aren't eager to support U.S. needs to their detriment. No doubt these problems contributed to the recent trade agreement you linked plus the fact they've been buying Chinese Treasuries.
Seems to me the U.S. has made some desperate demands on several Asian
countries that will accelerate the eventual building of of a Chinese empire (but this is another topic for discussion).
White Cobra, 'Physical getting tramped'. That it is. Both silver & gold have moved counter to the U.S. Dollar for quite some time and the dollar is up 0.513 so far today. In case you're not familiar with Chartseeker.com it's a right handy place to quickly check the dollar, gold & silver: http:www.chartseeker.com
You'll find the live silver , gold and dollar chart links with info listed on the left side of the screen in the green colored index.
White Cobra, sounds like a plan. Since estimating when and how the U.S. will transition from its present currency system to whatever is finally arrived at is nearly impossible. Everyone needs to choose an investment strategy they can live with. By patiently executing an individually tailored plan of collecting physical silver one can better avoid the frustrations engineered by the cartel to relieve us of our mettle. (bad pun intended) lol
White Cobra, Re. your (present) lack of optimism all I can offer is that someday the current fiat currency madness will change and be replaced with another system based at least in part with physical gold & silver. It's happened over & over throughout history and regardless of our country's efforts to avoid it happening again. The rest of the world will demand it...and it will happen.
In our personal lives we need to come to some compromise between acquiring our end goals and living day to day with an adequate measure of contentment and happiness.
I feel sure you'll find that happy compromise which will allow you to continue investing in silver.
Stinky pinky, nice article. The "I WANT IT/easy-street AND I WANT IT NOW PLUS I WANT IT LATER TOO" mindset of U.S. politicians and public at large has been prevalent for so long that none wants to consider the consequences of not having it.
The problem of sustaining easy-street much longer is that it's not in the hands of the U.S. government but virtually every country on the planet...and nearly without exception none can sympathize with 0R
afford to support the dollar scheme of international payment via U.S. dollars or purchase of U.S. treasuries. Pay back in some form
is coming and it won't be a pleasant experience.
The blame game will be enormous and dangerous for the pubic at large as well as for the sociopaths holding public offices.
King World News Blog just posted an interesting article by veteran fund manager Robert Fitzwilson. Fitzwilson suggests Western puppet masters might abruptly end dollar printing and out of the resultant chaos invent a new dollar.
jt6455 , you are so correct. Been accumulating mostly the cheapest 1 oz silver rounds like Morgans from Westminster with a few select Canadian - Timber Wolf & others. I too have noticed the (beautifully detailed and limited run) Canadian and Australian one ounce are disappearing fast. I'm assuming the sustained low silver price has made it too expensive for these two countries to continue producing a lot of these coins at a time when more stackers are buying this type round.
White Cobra, even this young teller senses things aren't hunky dory
with the economy. I have to take issue with her idea regarding the idea that silver is easily manipulated. In my opinion the current manipulation was well planned and financed years in advance. The COMEX with its silver certs along with a huge bank backed by none other than the U.S. taxpayer playing the part of shorter took much planning and maneuvering to set up - pure genius imo. But this well constructed, highly financed scheme will crumble.
In my last post I suggested the current political administration was likely a major factor in gold&silver's weak price and that the price weakness might extend longer than some think. (I'm guessing until it won't hurt the present administration's reelection). Of course black swans are circling like buzzards and could change things in the blink of an eye.
If it happens we have a few more months to accumulate at suppressed prices I'll be very happy : )
Cronyism seems to be on steroids alright. Initially I brought politics up because it seems that gold&silver pricing is some threat to the incumbent administration's reelection effort. Should the price of these two metals sail too high and get out of control it might hasten the devaluation of the Dollar. If this occurred measurably before the Nov. 3 election it could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. With this in mind I'm not surprised about the downward manipulation of gold&silver pricing.
In view of what's rapidly happening internationally to weaken the Dollar's value it could be that domestic/U.S. suppression of gold&silver's price has moved up in importance in keeping the Dollar looking strong.
Lastly I'm wondering how long and how low will these two metals will be kept low ? It might be longer and lower than we think.
White Cobra, re. JP Morgan Chase's (JPM C) $2 billion fiasco I doubt if public information will ever explain the true amount, the reason for the loss or the reason Jamie Diamond released the info'. JPM C is up to something and the smell of it already suggests something more than $2 billion. Remember, Jim Willie says his contacts suggests the loss is closer to $18 billion.
After years of study Ted Butler says JPM C is the holder of a grossly high and blatant illegal short position in silver. (While Ted hasn't always been perfect he is considered the guru of silver analyst). Just a few weeks ago JPM C marched its PR mouthpiece Blythe Masters out to officially deny the illegally huge short position. After her appearance, how can anyone believe any information JPM C puts out ?
It's a Presidential election year and our current sitting president is doing everything he can think of to win reelection.... which includes support of suppression of inflation, low interest rates, stock market, dollar value, etc. and last but not least suppression of gold&silver's prices.
Keeping the above in mind along with the date of the election (Nov. 6) causes me to wonder if politically motivated suppression of the two metal's prices can continue as effectively until election day with sub $1600 gold and silver below $30 ?
The present presidential administration wields tremendous power and influence via its proxies of
national news media,
rich Hollywood friends,
ultra rich so called financial experts like Warren Buffett,
mega bank JP Morgan Chase along with its siblings Wells Fargo, Bank of America, etc.
and last but not least Federal Reserve.
0T: one4theroad, hopefully enough U.S. voters will wake up and realize the opulence supporting their lifestyles could quickly
dissolve.
'Obama Health Care' Page 58: Govt will have real-time access to individual's finances and a 'National ID Health' card will be issued.
Page 59 lines 21-24: Govt will have direct access to your bank account for elective funds transfer.
Look these up if you don't believe they're correct !
Toofuzzy, wish I had the absolute facts regarding current
gold reserve inventories of countries. Without this
information it's extremely difficult to build future
'in the ball park' scenarios.
It's thought by many the U.S. gold reserves are a
(very small) fraction of the amount owned just after World
War II. If it's true U.S. reserves are small along with
the huge number of dollars printed and the likely eventual
loss of the dollar's world reserve currency status the
consequences are scary to think about.
Re. your question of is the government's buying more gold a good thing ? we'll need to watch future events to answer this question.
Stinky_pinky, I agree with you. The manipulation has likely entered the last chapter - I'm thinking the initial part of what will be
a long final chapter with possible horrific economic, financial, social and even religious changes.
Some time ago I began to expect the sellers of gold would switch from selling to acquiring and this would happen somewhere in the last stage. And W0W low&behold it happened....faster than I
reckoned.
It doesn't take a 180 IQ to figure out after the destruction of the world's fiat currencies gold with be valuable.
SilverSuffer, Toofuzzy, et al, there should be a steep diminishing return on printing fiat currency to buy precious metals via the more dollars in circulation resulting in higher metal prices.
However, with illegal suppression of metal prices Central Bankers are taking their virtually free fiat currency and stockpiling cheaply priced gold (like taking candy from a baby).
This current modus operandi - with government help - appears to be just one technique of many in the current fleecing of Middle Class America.
White Cobra, never been involved with Sprott Asset Management.
Sprott offers over twenty different funds to investors with Sprott Siver Bullion Fund possibly of interest to some on this board.
jt6455, try http://www.sprottusa.com.
I believe Sprott Asset Management buys silver to back its paper
and stores it in secured vaults.
interloper, sorry
my dyslexia showing up again.
interloper, just type the article's title Sprott Will Signal Silver Bottom in Google and it'll bring up several accesses
to Bob Moriarty's article. Moriarty says the premium on Sprott
Asset Management's shares can be used in a contrary manner to
predict the price bottom of silver.
Just read Rick Rule's latest short piece on King World
News & GoldSilver.com. In a round about way he reminds
us that the current congress & administration
hasn't changed economic fundamentals - just the
PERCEPTION of fundamentals by creating additional
liquidity/debt.
He cites past examples where some investors
lost site of true fundamentals and missed realizing
large gains.
Sprott Will Signal Silver Bottom Interesting article regarding timing bottom of silver by Bob Moriarty at...
www.123gold.com
SilverSurfer, Seems like Fleckenstein is attempting to maneuver
investment strategies within the Twilight Zone using Twilight
Zone logic. Are there enough equity investors believing there will be sufficient government created liquidity injected to move stocks higher in price ?
Possibly. Sounds like he thinks so. If it happens it might just provide smart investors a last ditch chance of exiting stocks without
losses.
However, some think copious amounts of government injected liquidity can push the stock markets higher for many months to come.
Seems investors believing this might be riding on the edge of an abyss.
SilverSurfer, I agree.
Our government has already moved into the Twilight Zone of economic logic. The litany of countries distancing themselves from the Dollar is nearing legion and the countries buying sizable amount$ of U.S. Treasuries is vanishing.
WHY NOT let the Treasury print more
dollars to pay any and all debts ? lol
Stinky_pinky, you probably noticed I though you were off prospecting.
Guess later ? Anyway, thanks for posting Jim Willie's articles.
Tis election year and being in the eye of the hurricane helps the Obama crowd dress-up the economy and lull voters into believing economic things are OK. Willie suggests the 'backside' of the hurricane will bring undeniable major trouble.
It'll be interesting to see if the backside will hit before the Nov. election.
SilverSurfer, a scenario where interest rates hit 4%-6%
would escalate the interest our government pays
(on debt) to unsustainable levels. And IF present
Fed' economic philosophy was still intact it's
presumed massive dollar printing the likes
we've never thought possible would occur
(to service the fast rising debt).
In this (straight up) scenario gold&silver ought to do very well.
jt', about GSA squandering taxpayers' money , it appears to illustrate a level of contempt for taxpayers and little fear of being punished. One could say the present administration has lead by its example of ultra lax enforcement of certain federal laws
thus setting the stage for GSA's attitude of ultra lax handling of taxpayer's money.
SilverSurfer, fine post with good logic that ought
to be considered by all - especially those thinking
they're too late to begin accumulating gold&silver.
PS...love your The Big One Fred Sanford analogy.
Too bad we lost Red Fox.
Re. the question posed to Silver Surfer about possible
sizable short term weakness of gold&silver we need to
remember this is a presidential (re)election year. We
can depend on the present administration with aid of
our liberal news media, Federal Reserve, BigBanks, and
high profile respected individuals like the Oracle of
Omaha, and others to convince everyone everything is
under control and getting better..
IF their bull sh*t does its work and enough investors of
all types - physical precious metals (PPM), equities, etc -
believe the BS then precious metals prices will probably
see weakness.
However, with any substantially lower precious metals
prices I suspect Eastern buying will have a hefty increase.
There is also a chance some of the circling Black Swans
could land between now and election time to support (PPM)
prices.
If one takes a long term view the PPM will do very well
for steady stackers imo.
jt, could be foreign individuals are no longer smitten
with holding gold & silver coins from the (disfavored)
United States. Our country has been loosing 'friend'
status among other countries for quite some time and
recently this dislike of the United States seems to
have greatly accelerated.
jt6455, you've nailed it ! The Western countries' (most of Europe & the U.S.) politicians have been handing their citizenry a huge economic snow-job for a long , long time. Now it's led to the brink of eradicating systems that have offered the greatest individual freedoms and economic prosperity ever.
In order to cover-up this long term politically driven lunacy the
masses are being fed a "big pile of stinky pooh" (BPSP). Lord help us
in this country if more than 50% of voters believe this BPSP.
Keep stacking hard assets.
0ne4theroad, as you say, the international games are
in full tilt along with our present Administration, Fed', BigBanking games here at home. There's so much short term manipulation, head fainting, and lying it's probably not worth studying. Nearly all is
background static which can be distracting to the important long term view.
White Cobra, if the rumor coming from Jim Willie and a few others about a very deep pocket Eastern group buying huge amounts of gold and silver are correct, the cheaper these metals become the more
this group will buy from a diminishing physical supply of these two precious metals. Incidentally, Eric Sprott has for a long time pointed out that the dwindling supply of physical silver vs. growing consumption would soon create a physical shortage. Perhaps
his projected shortage is coming sooner than we've anticipated.
This idea could to be part and parcel of the recent projection/s by some that later this year the price of silver could explode.
SOME DAY possibly sooner than thought we might look back at 31.00 oz silver and wish we'd bought more : ))
Wish I didn't have so many damned bills to pay and could buy more
silver. lol
PS...Anyone heard from Stinky pinky about the success of his ongoing
(I think) trip ?
Bix Weir usually paints an ultra bright future
for silver. Today was no exception in his
well documented article $ 8,250 oz. Silver
and ONE Bank.
It's a good & easy read.
http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/94.cfm