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Today's silver trading still unorthodox with elements of high volume downward price spikes. Hmm.
Sp, Your take on things is always appreciated as is everyone's. I've got lots of blind spots and that's a reason I read near every post. My financial resources are meager so I dream & wait for silver at a super low price to stretch my buck$. So when I see a systematic lowering of silver price followed by a flash crash it raises my hope that the cartel might be bringing THE BIG ONE - a time where the price will be driven below the 26.5 area to help their short covering. (Of course U.S. and Chinese silver buying entities might nix any good attempt at this being accomplished : )
WhiteCobra, probably the Chinese are pacing their gold & silver purchases so as not to positively support the price of either metal. I have to think it's most likely U.S. based entities' high speed computer manipulation that's driving the prices down so JP Morgan (JPM) et.al. can both cover their short positions and buy physical at the cheapest possible price. I've read that JPM has a vault stuffed with lots of physical gold.
That's my guess (based on what I read).
SS, as usual I'm guessing how far down the cartel will take silver. If the available silver supply is as tight as Ted Butler, James Turk and other savvy analysts say maybe the cartel/JP Morgan (JPM) is trying to stamped those holding silver into selling by tanking the price.
In Ted Butler's recent letter to subscribers he indicated JPM was only able to reduce its short position by a very small amount. (His wording caused me to think JPM wanted to significantly reduce their giant short position and couldn't due to the limited availability of silver).
It's been noted that sometime fairly soon paper & physical pricing will separate so maybe JPM thinks time is running out to manipulate silver down and cover as much short position as possible.
Just guessing as usual : ))
Stinky pinkie, thanks for your predictions. Looks like the blame-game
between Democrats & Republicans, Keynesian & Austrian economist, poor & rich, black & white, illegal immigrant sympathizers & hard liners, etc., etc., etc. will be heating up even more as time passes.
Hard economic times brings out the foul side of human nature and really hard times will bring out the 'animal' in most.
WoW, Mr. Obama has really brought us all together in a KUMBAYA way.
Back to silver...hoping for a really big shortage.
Sp, while powerful and skilled entities - mainly JP Morgan (JPM) - manipulate silver's short and intermediate term pricing most typical technical indicators cease to work well. In their place certain fundamentals become more important.
An example of this fundamental information comes from Harvey Organs's latest report in which he briefly mentioned the *supply of silver is very tight* - too tight for those holding large silver short positions to cover. Sounds too good to be true.
I'm sure JPM has a few cards up its sleeve. Wondering what they are ?
one4theroad, Been thinking what would precede a JP Morgan Chase (JPM) silver covering event. Obviously wrangling the lowest price possible for a sufficient amount of time would be necessity. Every time the (paper) price has skidded below $30 the last several months I've imagined it could be a precursor to their big covering event...and I've been wrong lol. Same thing is going through my head now. Someday I'll be right...I think.
Anyhow, I've heard JPM has been shorting silver & gold while buying physical. It really gets confusing but it seems logical at some point in time it would want to exit their short position and when it does we might see some pretty low paper and possibly physical silver pricing.
Just in case...I'm keeping a bit of dry powder for the time JPM exits their short position.
Re. gold&silver pricing my biggest problem is putting things into a proper time perspective. Some say the demise of the Dollar's value began in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank. Others point to Nixon ending what was left of the gold standard in 1971.
While both dates (1913 & 1971) are important the 1971 date seems to stick out as the launching pad for the most rapid loss of dollar's value in the shortest time period - 42 years. It's this 42 year & growing time span we're still in.
So, looking daily sometimes several times (like me :) at the prices might make it easy to forget these two metals are in a 4 decade long cycle. Granted these metals are probably close to the end of this cycle and that towards the end of currency cycles like this the devaluation usually accelerates.
The hard lesson I think? I've learned is rather than becoming frustrated at the slowness of things it's best to watch puzzle pieces fall into place and be aware of a potential warp speed dollar devaluation scenario.
Some of these puzzle pieces supporting higher gold&silver pricing are:
*A President who's main/only goal is ultimately wealth distribution
*A seemingly clueless President & Senate re. sound economic policies at a time when the U.S. is most economically challenged by the rest of the world
*U.S. Dollar as world reserve currency rapidly loosing its
predominance
*U.S. economic leaders firmly believing Keynesian economics will
have a positive conclusion
*China building its gold reserve at a pace some predict may surpass U.S. reserves this year or next - 2015 for sure
Like Mike Maloney says re. the Dollar's value It's just that everyone is dreaming the same dream (that the dollar is valuable) and whenever we wake up the dream is over.
It seems most of Asia has already awakened.
ThisAM silver 31.16 to 30.92 in two minutes.
In the two minute drop (likely high speed computer) manipulation volume more than quadrupled the 30 minute moving average volume. Some margined speculator possibly lost his drawers in this & the subsequent price drop.
one4theroad, thanks for the tip. I'm still getting the huge amber warning sign. Been to the SGT site but was accessing KingWorld & GoldSilver from Bookmarks.
Attempted to access articles on King World&GoldSilver
and got a window saying the sites were deemed "Attack Sites" and were blocked by preferred settings on my computer. Hmm
Could the cartel actually be attacking those two sites ? LOL
High-speed computer manipulation>>>silver dropped .60 in 10 minutes
on high volume a few minutes ago. Several entities are playing silver like a fiddle.
one4theroad, re. renewed interest in coins
I think you're right about it being a combination of several things. One factor contributing to the coin interest renewal is probably the real, fast-creeping inflation rate. Folks - I'm one of them - are noticing their cost of living has significantly increased during the last few years and are looking for tangible, off the radar ways to earn additional income and/or protect whatever wealth they have. As you pointed out, as a group it includes sophisticated, wise investors as well as wild eyed novices paying unbelievable premiums on pennies.
Silver @ 32.07 up .89 today ... volume still high. Maybe Harvey Organ or someone can figure out the price & volume momentum.
WC, I'm green with envy and happy for you at the same time. lol
SP, You're possibly right re. how JP Morgan Chase & others will extricate themselves from their humongous short positions. I'd bet a double decker cheeseburger with jalapenos their process for getting it done will honeyfuggle or outright break regulations/laws. I'm thinking we're close to seeing them do whatever happens.
Silver just jumped 70 cents this morning in one hour on high volume.
Someone wanted a lot very quickly. Maybe some covering ? ... or Eastern buying ?
SP, 'how is the cartel going to deliver on all the PM shorted ?' My guess is that some will get some (physical silver) and some will not. It's been suggested that certain U.S. government proxies - especially the one with the largest (alleged by Ted Butler) short position in silver - won't have too.
The current U.S. Attorney General & Department of Justice has established enough track record to believe it will - after lots of crying & screaming sweep a major silver default under the rug. After all, M F Global is only a faint memory - something to do with a few rich people who had some gold and lost some money. And everyone except Chrysler bonds holders who had first dibs on the assets of defunct Chrysler Corp have forgotten what happened. They were told by U.S. gov. officials they'd go to the back of the line ... after unions and various creditors. This destroyed accepted legal presidence that had existed for a long, long time.
The majority of paper 'owners' of silver might??? be offered some sort of adjustment in U.S. currency but most likely be be left holding an empty bag with with no recourse.
WC, it's amazing how much our government & news media has been able to distance the general public's economic mindset from reality. Just finished viewing Shadow Stats' John Williams explain that the U.S.' deficit under widely accepted GAP accounting rules was really
$ 6.5 TRILLION last year. This is a number that's incomprehensible !
Then in another interview James Turk explained our House of Representatives just passed a bill "temporally" removing the debt ceiling. Turk points out that in 1971 Nixon "temporally" unhitched the U.S. Dollar from gold. Turk says we are on the way to hyperinflation.
But you've got a good point that a sizable portion of common-folk investors think equity investing might be a bit risky but with a recovering economy the place to be. A personal example I mentioned quite a while ago is my friend who watches MSNBC and thinks those who lost money in the MF Global scam lost their asses due to bad investment choices.
Thanks SP. VOLATILITY - several precious metals analysts have also alluded to gold&silver prices being extremely volatile in the near future. As elements of the cartel exit their short positions I'm wondering what amount of volatility will come as as a result of their (1) shorting to bring the price down - (2) quick buying at low prices before the public begins its buying which (3) will move prices to a temporary overbought area (just right for shorting) ... rinse and repeat...rinse and repeat ?
So, as the end of gold&silver price suppression draws near we'll likely see delayed deliveries AND price volatility.
Jim Sinclair stated the current gold&silver price suppression could be the manipulators' last big hurrah/downward price push. If he's right there could be further price weakness as their short positions are covered and long positions established..
As several pro gold and silver analysts have offered, what's happening is the greatest wealth transfer the world has ever seen. If this is so - on the grand scheme of things - this transition will take time and for those involved in the nitty-gritty of it holding precious metal it might seem like 'an eternity' (LOL). Patience has its rewards.
The next weeks or months might? offer another - maybe the last - really good buying opportunity.
Sometimes I feel like an ant who hauled my tiny stash of silver aboard a bus supposedly headed to 3 or 4 digit silver pricing. After taking my seat I learned the bus is filled with giants (hedge funds, commercial traders, bullion banks, Federal Reserve, Chinese government, etc.) and all of them are fighting to take control of the bus' destination.
Fortunately the road is too narrow for the bus to turn around.
Re. future silver price Jim Sinclair mentioned some of the Hedge Funds had a bad (2012) year and were selling lots of gold. He thinks
their selling ought to be completed this week.
WC, Sorry to hear your local Goodwill has changed management that might not be helpful. It seems there is one constant these days and it's that things aren't staying the same very long. (Wonder if the former manager could have been transferred to another store not too far away ?)
About the changes taking place, as you know our politicians over the last few decades have systematically promised too much and have put our country/taxpayers in a humongous debt hole by unwise military and social give away programs in an effort to buy themselves votes with borrowed money. IT'S THE DEBT (IMO) that's causing negative financial, legal, social, religious&moral and last but not least Constitutional changes. I'm guessing we ain't seen nothing in the way of changes yet.
WC, Re.JP Morgan Chase (JPM C) one analyst says - sorry I forget the link - that when the time JPM C's short position ought to sink the Company it'll be swept under the rug much the same as MF Global's theft has been taken care of. He points out that the MF Global thing is already a pretty much forgotten thing. Such will be the JP Morgan Chase thing after a few months. After all...our own Federal Court said segregated customer funds really aren't THAT segregated.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/federal-appeals-court-rules-brokerages-can-use-segregated-client-funds-to-pay-creditors/
Pro-Life, "Something BIG is coming in the next few weeks in silver". The government's blatant anti-silver moves have long ago crossed over the line and disappeared into an abyss of 'It may be against Federal law law but so what'. It seems our elected officials and their Appointed believe the end justifies their means whether legal or not.
One big thing that's going to happen is an increased demand for 1 0z. U.S. Silver Eagles lol. To cut the supply of Silver Eagles at this point in time is like tossing chum into a small pool filled with hungry sharks. I'd say *suspicious*, hungry sharks but I'm not sure sharks can be suspicious. But savvy investors throughout the world are growing more suspicious of countries' efforts to devalue their currencies and are beginning to buy silver&gold. To cut their supply for any reason will only tend to feed their hunger.
Thanks for the nice post with links.
With the cartel's manipulation nearly anything seems possible. However, with the BRICS plus the rest of Asia buying gold & silver as fast as possible it's unlikely the (Western) cartel could drive the physical precious metals down very long.
Seems to me the facade of making economies appear OK to the masses has already begun to crumble around the edges and this will continue to slowly :( gain momentum.
Maybe I'm seeing what I want to happen : )) We'll see.
Re. fiscal cliff and silver price...
Mentioned before - if congress goes over the fiscal cliff and the cartel's past M O is used, silver's PAPER price might be pushed substantially lower along with lower price points for physical silver.
As the old paper game of suppressing physical silver pricing is beginning to loose its impact the above scenario might still present physical silver buyers a good opportunity.
SP, the more I learn the more I realize how little I know. I'm cursed with too many blind spots but it has never restrained me from guessing - (sometimes absurdly) lol about the future.
I'm sure you and others have seen the list of countries that have already pegged their currencies either in part or fully to the Chinese Yaun. There are about a dozen of them and some are major economies that are still our friends. One estimate I've red states the U.S. dollar is still 65% of the world's reserve currency. Problem is that with the U.S.' announced hyper-printing of dollars it'll encourage a faster transition away from the dollar to the yaun.
To add more scary details to the dollar value picture John Williams at SHADOW STATS has predicted hyperinflation by 2014. Practically none of us has ever experienced hyperinflation or read about what it does to a society but it is said to be very cruel with exaggerated negative consequences especially to those on fixed or near fixed incomes. Consider if you will, those without jobs, those with part time & minimum paying jobs and those on Social Security.
No wonder why Jim Sinclair is selling or has sold his home and moving overseas.
SP, Sinclair ranks high as a savvy analyst IMO and is up there with Jackass Jim Willie in speaking his mind in plain language : ))
Know I sound like a broken record but Mike Maloney warned there would be lots of background noise in the current transition to a new currency. What he didn't tell us is that we would see Central Banks
doing outrageously stupid things. Can you say Desperate !
However, Maloney did caution that negative social things would likely occur. And 'BOY' was he right ! People seem to easily cast off good & decent social mores and religious morals when confronted with fear of loosing their customary grip on money and the things it will buy.
If the direction our economy is on doesn't change to a more logical path - and I don't see that happening - I suspect we'll all too soon be living in a very different 'world' surrounded with values much different (and good) than what we've been accustomed to.
nosebush, thanks for posting a link to the Secret Service ban on E Bay listing of certain silver & gold coins. (I was late leaving the house to pick up my wife when I caught a glimpse of a news header about it and had to run). I see there's several listings to the subject when googled.
I got a glimpse of the article header on Ed Wallace's WHEELS news page
- just checked and it's been removed. Maybe the header was a bit misleading and he took it down.
Just read where the Secret Service banned sales of Silver & Gold Liberty Dollars on E Bay. (Don't have time to Google it. some of ya'll might follow up on it.
WC. Good point about thinner trading giving the cartel an advantage in driving silver&gold prices down during the next few weeks. Also end of year tax loss selling (as you pointed out) seems to be in play.
I've pretty much given up trying to use typical chart analysis to anticipate price moves because of the power the cartel has to manipulate pricing and turn a price trend (on a dime) to suit their agenda. Consequently I've shifted my thinking to trying to guess WHAT THE CARTEL WANTS. (Brother John rightfully claims chart analysis of silver is valid because it includes/reflects the manipulation).
Back to figuring out what the cartel moves are going to be. Since the cartel has intentionally withheld critical data that would help in anticipating their next near term move/s it makes good estimates based on chart analysis near impossible.
However, I suspect the analysts calling for the cartel to eventually cover and go long will be a correct call. With the present turmoil coming from congress' fiscal cliff side-show coupled with other critical things the next 60-90 days might? be the time the cartel covers and goes long.
Looks like the cartel could? be in the process of driving precious metal prices way down. At some point Sinclair, Turk and other pro gold&silver analysts think the cartel will cover shorts and go long term. Guess we'll find out if that's what they're currently up to.
Been $aving up for such a scenario.
Observation of $ilver & 50 day moving average (MA).
A brief look at silver pricing and its 50 day MA suggests its price could remain depressed into February-March.
Looking at the last two years shows 5 price movements down through its
50 day MA & back up through the MA. Dates & time durations are approximate.
2011
#1...late April - mid July - 90 days
#2...Sept - Nov - 60 days
#3...Nov - late Jan. - 90 days
20112
#4...Mar. - Aug. - 150 days
At this time I'm considering the two very brief dow-up-down moves within #5 as being within an overall long time frame down-up (through
the MA).
#5...Oct. - Nov.
#5... Dec.........
SP, wonder why Morgan silver dollars in BU condition have gained popularity of late and why certain .999 coins are becoming more prized ? When the price of silver begins a rapid gain (someday : )
it's thought the numismatic value of silver coins will be less or as some say 'compacted'. Could this idea be contributing to your call to sell Morgan BUs and buy certain high profile .999 rounds ?
It's risky to talk about silver, gold, QE/forgery/theft of money,
where our government's present path seems to be going to 99.9% of folks. I foolishly attempted a small discussion of U.S. economics with a friend and was astounded with his opinions. He was fully informed quoting what he'd heard on CNBC and essentially the Fed' & government are pulling the economy out of a recession.
I did learn from him 35 years ago he bought 200 silver dollars from a friend at near face value. He wasn't sure how much silver was in each piece or that each silver dollar had appreciated in value from roughly face value to near $25 at current pricing.
Oh well.... save your breath AND reputation. Very carefully choose who you discuss things with : )
SilverEagle, trying not to be biased in my opinion (due to my investment in silver) and wanting to be completely fair I'm going to say Jeffrey Christian is looking at a different group of facts than the ones I see. Of course he might? be right in the very short term.
But (as you seem to suggest) he might have an ulterior motive : )
Toofuzzy, In a recent essay by Theodore Butler about what he calls unusual (phys') silver movement he says
"In the nine business days prior to Thanksgiving around 8 million ounces of metal were removed from the big silver ETF, SLV. Given the trading volume very little silver should have been removed. The most plausible explanation for the withdrawal is that the metal was urgently needed elsewhere. Perhaps it serviced the recent purchase by Sprott and/or the Royal Canadian Mint"
Make no mistake - the current physical silver inventory turnover in both the ETF and the COMEX silver warehouse is not normal.
He goes on to say "I suspect that the silver supply lines are stretched thin and this major movement is required to plug demand"
Later in the same paragraph he writes "Let's face it - if silver was artificially low in price, sooner or later, that would have to cause a physical shortage according to the law of supply and demand. It has taken 30 years to get to this point. When this silver shortage hits in earnest, it is going to shock everyone."
One thing Butler has never done (to my knowledge) is give a very specific time when he thinks a silver shortage will happen.
Those manipulating silver pricing seem to have government/s backing & resources and thus can likely lengthen the time it's taking to reach a critical inventory point that's plain to the world. Just my opinion, but speculating with financial resources
about when this shortage will occur is extremely risky.
Butler ends by writing "Years ago I wrote that the combination of short covering, industrial panic buying and investment demand in silver would be like an atom bomb on top of a hydrogen bomb on top of a neutron bomb. No other asset on earth has such an incredible combination of bullish factors. Physical silver is perhaps the only asset on earth where a five figure investment can make you moderately rich"
Hopefully Butler is correct about such potential. Because of his opinion I'm satisfied adding as I can to a modest stack of physical silver.
SP, now that the cartel's MO is obvious I'm wondering if Congress goes over the fiscal cliff - which ought to be very positive for physical silver's price - if the cartel will put their best effort into a price smack down ? IF so, it might present a good/great buying opportunity.
I'm going to wait and see before buying more.
SP, yep, just like clockwork - gold&silver batted down on every major news that ought to send the price higher. As you probably know, Ted Butler & other precious metals analysts suspect the abundant inventory of physical silver for purchase has dwindled to very little. Once this supply is exhausted the price will likely have rockets strapped to it. So...let the cartel - whoever they are - keep the price low so everyone - you, me, us, the Chinese, Russians etc. - can buy more ozs. The remaining small inventory will just vanish faster.
I gotta confess, every time I buy more phys' I say a prayer my refrig', washing machine, clothes dryer, auto doesn't need repair or
replacing or that a family member doesn't need much dental work or get sick. I'm scared to buy & afraid not to buy.