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Aside from the cartel's manipulation of silver there are other factors that could? suppress its quoted market value for the short and short-intermediate future. With the EURO in the hospital and YEN being moved closer to the ICU the DOLLAR - while having a chronic slowly advancing disease - still looks good (by comparison).
As the Euro & Yen leave their home markets looking for safer territory they're likely to come to the U.S. which ought to buoy and possibly increase the Dollar's value. A stronger Dollar could? result in hampering silver's increase in market value.
Going to be fun watching this play out.
several
Sp, The Doc reads good sites. Wondering if Jim Willie is a bit too rabid for him to mention ? LoL Anyways, here's the link again for those looking for some National Inquirer type financial news http://goldenjackass.com
Maybe I shouldn't have put it this way. Actually Willie is usually several steps ahead of most legitimately conservative economic analysts.
At Jim Sinclair's web site http://www.jsmineset.com a loyal follower of Sinclair has posted an interesting technical prediction with charts that on either Friday May 10 or Monday May 13 a price drop will occur. He doesn't know how much - just that a drop will happen.
If it's a substantial drop my bet is it'll bounce back fast.
Lot's of ifs : ))
Cartel between a rock & hard place ? IF their physical PM
inventories are as low as some think, manipulating prices further down would likely spur more paper to physical conversions depleting their physical inventories even more and possibly causing defaults. And rising prices could cause a rush to buy (and convert paper to physical) by those wanting more phys' before the train leaves. If this scenario is correct the cartel might need to keep prices range- bound.
A scenario supporting another big price take-down might happen as a way to take out any stops left which could help phys' inventories AND provide a better price range for covering shorts.
Who knows ? ... they do. L0L
WC, maybe just a slap-down for silver getting over 24 & gold nearing 1500 : ))
Sp, ...using a monster box as collateral... Kudos to you for such creative use of physical precious metal. Hope you have a super successful summer trip.
Sp, ... monster boxes of silver eagles on Apmex and Providence selling for $19K+ and buying for $12K+ Good observation. I hadn't noticed.
Supply & demand seems to be the current driver of divergence. I'm eager to see another cause - the growth of gold&silver value reflected as true money within a gold&silver based system. One such system is being developed by the BRICS. Once this happens more broadly a manipulated (false) paper value quote will be well on its way to irrelevancy.
Rethinking stacking goals. It's totally apparent silver&gold prices are still controlled by the COMEX division of the CME Group and JP Morgan Chase with a little assistance from London's bullion bank. (The divergence of paper & physical may take more time than anticipated).Once forbidden naked shorting is now the norm as U.S. regulatory bodies look the other way - afraid to penalize any part of the too big to fail currency printing scheme.
Some buying physical PMs with short term investment horizons have met with bad results and other short termers needing cash feel cheated. As with any goals those with unfulfilled expectations are disappointed with others really p*ssed.
Back to basics. While its not a given that accumulating PMs will someday protect wealth (as much as first thought) it's still the best
insurance against a worthless dollar.
one4theroad, wish I could disagree with Goehle but he furnished readers a candid, unflattering but true look at most of the gold&silver bull crowd (me included) and *especially* those foolishly predicting dates & price.
Apparently those who made wrong price forecasts might have been in tune with the cartel's general goal but not its strength. It seems the only obstacle preventing the cartel from manipulating prices to near zero might be a too rapid loss of physical PMs. I'm thinking it's learning that lesson now.
SE, Yeh, not sure why I'm complaining about manipulation keeping PM prices low. From a long term perspective we ought to send Jamie Dimon a letter of appreciation : )
SilverEagle, Unless I'm missing something the cartel AKA JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has an unlimited ability to naked short sale plus it could somehow? simply default and walk away from its huge short position. Do we really think our esteemed U.S. Attorney General would hold JPM accountable ?
When I think about the situation I get depressed. Someone tell me I'm wrong and make me feel better. lol
Small volume until today's take-down began this AM. Then volume went into hi gear with computer algo's taking silver from about 24.20 to
23.24. Then volume mysteriously shrank : )
Presently volume & price are increasing (23.73). Hopefully the May 1 buying program will have some sort of a long term positive price impact
May 1...a holiday in major foreign PM trading centers is
an invitation for the cartel to take advantage of low volume trading volume with its robot programed hi-speed trading computers. Guessing they'll take out a few stops if they can.
SE, yes, where the May 1 buying attack ? : )
SP, thanks for the link. I'll go there and check it out.
Certainly one thing the U.S. government seems to be using some the trillions of fiat dollars for is the suppression of precious metal prices. By freely funding bailout & more dollars to JP Morgan with which to use in its suppression of silver & gold our government is in the business of PM suppression.
This makes it very difficult to end the paper game.
Stinky pinky, most PHDs know their area of study was very narrow. Obviously she has wandered too far from her expertise 0r doesn't have the correct information to make the statement she made. She needs to subscribe to John Williams' Shadow Stats http://www.shadowstats.com
Our Central Bank Chairman Ben (Helicopter) Bernanke was awarded a PHD for his study of Depression economics. His PHD essay conclusions
prove his study was much too narrow to use as a template to solve current U.S. financial problems.
WC, Seeking Alpha does offer some good articles.
Been there and read some nice ones ...and some that have have chosen to use certain data to build scenarios I've found questionable. Altogether a good source of information giving the reader things to consider.
griff, my head gets to spinning too. Between my wrong interpretations,
MSM propaganda and Keynesian brain-washed analysts it's impossible to get the facts needed. (You may already know most of the following and if so forgive me for preaching to the choir...again : )
While Jim Willie will scare the hell out of listeners with some of his sidebar tidbits his PHD in statistics along with several years experience in the financial field seems to have equipped him well at interpreting what's happening. But maybe it's his rabid interests in finding the real, important facts along with his genius of synthesizing these facts that places him at or near the top of those who you can access for free for great information. He usually gives reliable long and intermediate term analysis. To find his interviews try http://www.goldenjackass.com
For short term analysis Turd Ferguson at http://tfmetalsreport.com
usually gives a nice description of current things. Brother JohnF
at http://www.brotherjohnf.com is a site with lots of articles and I like the fact he screens these articles. Of course http://www.goldsilver.com and http://www.kingworldnews.com are usually good sources of gold & silver as well as other related news articles.
JP Morgan is the school bully who's father
(U.S. government & financial cabal) is the the school's principal. Only an outside force with more authority/financial power (cumulative financial strength of enough individuals) can overrule the principal and thus remove the bully.
Hopefully we're witnessing initial actions that will successfully
overrule the principal and remove the school bully but I'm not betting on it. Not yet anyway. lol
WC, re. JP Morgan Chase increasing their short position in silver I'm tempted to interpret their adding shorts as a tool in an attempt to slow the onslaught of physical buying along with rapid price escalation - and not to ever cover its position at a profit.
Viewing the the financial 'pickle' our government is in and considering U.S. regulators chronically turning a blind a blind eye to things like MF Global , illegal shorting of silver etc. , etc. I doubt JP Morgan will ever have to cover its massive silver short position.
I figure it'll default and pay a fine with dollars quickly printed up by the government 0r some shady variation of a slap on the wrist.
nosebush, depending on which silver availability rumor one believes, the May 1 buying blowout might empty the retail shelves making it impossible to get certain silver bullion items. And your idea that planned humongous buying might drive the price higher in advance of May 1 has merit as evidenced by the current high volume buying.
My bet is on availability tightening more prior to this coming Thursday pushing the price higher followed by a (mostly) contrived sell-off after May 1. Whatever happens ought to be interesting.
XenaLives, Got my (general) volume estimates from the one minute chart at http://www.cx-portal.com/metal/silver_en.html
Most here know my linking ability sucks. Hope this is a good one : )
Re. 60 cent sudden increase in (paper) silver
23.24 - 23.86. I'm wishing there was more information available. Purely from a volume standpoint during the brief run-up volume roughly doubled from the prior 3-4 hour average trading volume. This could have been computer generated 0r someone who bought a substantial amount with individual fill orders taking 30 minutes.
There was a mild correction of the .60 increase and paper price is moving up again 23.60 - 23.95 on elevated volume. All the above can be seen at a glance from a good chart. The question is...is this the beginning of a legitimate sustained silver price increase or more manipulation by shorting traders ?
XensLives, the 50 cent pop in silver/..real based on supply & demand 0r a sucker bait rally ?
WC, GREED or FEAR ?
So often individuals subconsciously assume others do and think the things they do because it's what they/themselves would do and think. In the study of psychology it's called projection. and I'll try not to project my reasons for buying.
Word is that in the short term silver & gold dealers are basing their ability to make a profit on physical bullion they can buy at prices below current paper quoted prices. (I also understand this might be below producing mine's cost.) This tells us that stackers are not selling and only accumulating more.
So, to answer your question...is the buying based on greed or fear ?
I'm guessing the main reason behind most of the surge in buying is preservation of the best standard of living possible with fear of the unknown leading - at this time - over greed.
Sorry for another bad link. Try this one.
Scroll down to: Silver Update 4/20/13 Silver Shortage
http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF
Those who haven't heard BrotherJohnF's latest on silver&gold shortage might want to asap. Try http://utube.com/user/BrotherJohnF
Re. my last post on the COT report released today there apparently was was a change in the 'Large Speculator' catagory showning a sizable reduction of OI. Curiously it didn't show big numbers I expected from that category.
Thinking I'll wait for Harvey Organ's analysis : )
Sp, re. the COT report think it was just posted on Goldseek.com. and is as of April 16. If this (Apr. 16) date is correct it wouldn't reveal changes in open interest for the 3 days gold&silver prices have worked their way across the bottom. Like you, I'm going to wait and see what Harvey Organ can come up with.
WC, no doubt COT results are presently known and a privileged few have used the info'. Hope someone will post the 3:30pm announcement results here asap.
WC, have you been reading The Bible ? What you're saying seems logical. However, a one-world-currency would limit a country's
ability to finance war through inflation (which has always been done).
I'm not sure certain countries would give up their financial sovereignty to wage war.
On a different subject
>>>silver prices are being gyrated up & down, up and down with 0.40 to 0.90 cent swings. Someone is shaving lots of money off both ends of these moves. Seems likely there's smaller manipulation occurring within the overall larger manipulation.
>>>The psychology of silver going down in paper quoted value is being done to (1) encourage holders of silver to sell
(2) cause folks not to by silver. My-my. This is like looking at a
Mercedes one week priced @ $50,000 and the next week (same identical car) it's priced @ $35,000 and telling yourself it's a bad buy.
Sp, yep quite a show it is : ) - almost cracked 24.
I'm wondering how many margin calls got tripped Friday & this evening ? If a bunch it ought to trigger more selling @ ouch ! ouch ! prices.
Thanks for re-posting griff's linked article. Main idea I take away from the article is the deft precision with which this latest take-down and the referenced earlier one were done. Those who rigged the take-downs are smart pros.
I'm beginning to assume the next really big sustained PM move up will only come when enough of the world's general population becomes scared enough to buy in such volume as to overwhelm any plan to control the prices. By then I figure many or most central banks will have acquired large PM inventories and be favoring the price increases.
Guess we'll have to wait on enough black swan events until then.
griff, there's no doubt that a 16% loss of silver production is a big-deal. Physical silver is obviously tight at this time (with our U.S. Mint not able to meet ASE demand due to a shortage of silver blanks).
If this loss of production is sustained long enough to meet analysts predictions of coming black swan events that will skyrocket physical gold&silver demand it could be *real important*.
(Certain PM analysts contend eventually massive short positions
will run headlong into huge PM buying demand and will send prices into orbit.
Gold settled @ 1476.10 and Silver @ 25.76 in after hours trading. Usually dramatic one-day drops like this signal THE bottom. However, there is probably a pot full of shots yet to be covered. Did anyone hear the fat lady sing ?
Keeping my seat-belt hitched and power dry.
WC, the most terrifying words inthe English language.
I'm from the government and I'm here to help you. : )
Your sequence of logic seems right-on.
Five years have passed since I bought a very modest amount of junk silver coins. I had little knowledge of what was going on economically - just a gut feeling things we're right and a fear they could get really bad. Little did I know the U.S. was 40 years into a long term economic downhill slide beginning when Nixon ended the last items of the gold standard.
Those - and I include myself - who bought PMs with short term goals have hopefully modifiedtheir plan. To those who might need to sell some of their hard earned PM remember one step forward, two steps back won't last forever. Keep the faith and your vision.
From someone is is far, far from being wealthy.
WC, The Miles Franklin article gives a nice overview of what's happening in the wholesale and retail gold & silver markets - more than enough facts to whet anyone's interest. Alas....the general population won't see the article and if they did would dismiss as not having anything to do with their livelihood.
Paper silver bounced off 26.048 earlier today. The cartel's high speed trading computers must be smoking. : )
wer123, don't get me started. On second thought thank you for cuing up another of my pet peeves LOL - that of the probable trillion$ in default insurance derivatives the Big 5 U.S. banks have sold European banks.
I could? be wrong on this but why did the U.S. Fed' secretly funnel hundreds of billions to selected European banks ? It was to keep them from bankruptcy.
I've always assumed if certain big European banks went belly-up they would demand collection on default insurance purchased from the U.S. bank that sold them the insurance. Then the s*it would hit the fan because the U.S. bank couldn't pay.
The entire Western economies are skating on thin ice and it's warming up.
Sp, yeh, on King World News this morning there's an article Goldman Sachs reverses its gold position again and Cyprus sells its 13.9 ton reserves" by Peter Cooper of Arabian Money.
Not sure we can use "trust but verify" anymore. Better we remember Jimmy Carter's infamous blurt about the Russian government "They LIED to me !!!" regarding trust in those attempting to sustain bankrupt governments and their central banks .. along with the MSM news of course.
All this Cyprus selling gold reminds me of Abbott & Costello's "Who's
On First" routine. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/humor4.shtml
eik, thanks for the SilverDoctors link. So maybe Cyprus didn't sell the gold. And if they did maybe they're denying it to keep whatever level of confidence is left in their banking system. What we know for sure is that SOMEONE is lying and Western governments have lost another measure of credibility.
Owning physical silver or gold makes governments' financial credibility a bit less crucial.