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can it hold $2.60?? its tested this level a couple of times..
as an update on the PM sector, I track 57 of the 'index listed' miners.. and as of today, everyone of them is now in a negative momentum trend.
Hopefully, if this momentum continues, it doesn't drag AXU down, hopefully the price of silver remains above $15=17/oz
Going to be really ticked if this one took so long to get its damn permit, and then has a sector run develop, only to see it fall off before smeltering operations actually start.
decided to 'help' accelerate the sell off I am looking for.. only problem is, the last 3 days, while the price has run in place, the volume has been tapering off indicating folks aren't sure what to do just yet, (not sure whether to sell, but not buying either)
so bought a small % of the shares I would like to have just to have some in case they surprise me with an announcement.
So bought a small # of shares at $9.36 (less than I sold the ones I had for, so at least thats a good thing)
and it worked. The share price dropped below $9.30..
Disclaimer: own 'some', see where it goes from here. Plan to add more, but going to be patient..
couple the below from ATNMs 'news' links on their site, with a 'comment' from someone at ATNM that its possible the data would be good enough to ask for a halt..
Actinium Provides Update on Iomab-B SIERRA Trial and Expected Topline Results from Ad Hoc Analysis in 2020
DOWNLOAD AS PDF APRIL 16, 2020
- Single ad hoc interim analysis for SIERRA trial to be exercised at the Company's discretion in Q2 2020, making topline data results available in Q4 2020
I have to go back in time to find out why, but I was looking forward to the July/Aug timeframe.
question is, how long before they surprise with the interim readout of the PH 3 is the question..
and will there be a dip before hand.
Thing is, I was expecting the interim readout to have happened by now...
Hate to say it this way because folks still hold their positions, but would love to see sub $9 before I retake a position..
OOPS... better not quit my 'day job' huh...
lets see, sold out $9.5 area (essentially 30 cents).. its now up to $11.7 or so in the AH tonight... nearly 39 cents or so..
damn nice gain I missed out on... now why did it jump in the AH on top of the nice move today??
Hate it when I sell and then it does this to 'rub it in' on top of the pain from the giveback from when it was 59 cents before it crashed to 30...
Dang nab it anyways...
Its very likely that the share price jumps higher on the PH 3 interim readout.
I suspect there will be a secondary at some point in time.
Then best case on the interim readout? They ask for a trial halt cause the data is so good. But its still 6-9 months to the FDA decision from the day the NDA to the FDA is submitted. So its possibly its up to a year from the end of the trial to an FDA decision.
IF they don't ask for a trial halt, or its rejected, its another 5 months of data generation.
So unless the institutions buy up the shares and make 'shorting' a challenge (squeeze potential due to low share count avaiable to buy back IF a squeeze develops)...
I would expect the share price to drift 'lower'.. to where I have no idea..
had to get out this morn...
While I was expecting a r/split, may a 1-4 or 1-5 to help meet the listing reqts, then let 'good news' hold the share price up, I could have lived with that. Cause the share price would likely have 'held', been 'safe' from pressure of selling, shorting..
But a 1-30 was too much.. Especially when it comes to the potential return now requiring $90/sh to get the equivalent of $3/sh that I was looking for.
And then, even if they announce a trial halt, there will be that lead time to NDA assembly and submission, acceptance and review that could take up to 9 - 12 more months for an approval decision..
So anyways, I had to sell out and will look to see if it gives me another run at it..
Turning 75000 shares into a little over 2000 was really 'unnecessary'...
and oh yeah, don't forget there is the possibility of a secondary offering pending as well... Hopefully they don't announce that until after they announce some good news first..
good luck.. damn, what a way to wreck a great setup...
Read thru their 'earnings' announcement. Have some cash, preps to commence production ongoing, hiring folks.
Targeting the 4th qtr..
Someone posted that $2.5 looks like support.. IF the PM sector can't regain traction, holding $2.5 might be a challenge..
as anticipated, AXU is likely to drop with the sector, not strong enough to stand on its 'own' merits yet...
Damn, should have flipped the shares again when the chance was 'offered'...
given the size of this r/split, one has to be assume, there is something going on...
but sure as hell don't like it
400 Million shares down to 13 Million... Are they for real??
1st, the market cap hasn't changed. $140 Million or so...
At $11/sh and say they do a 50 Million sh offering, raise $500 Million dollars.
market cap at $11 is $550 Million...
there goes the upside potential return... ugh...
and agree, without news, and with a secondary of any size, this is now an ugly position to be in given my prior target price of $3 is now $90... (at 13 Million shares)...
Fully agree...
As I said a few messages earlier, what they are going to do is TBD'd...
But the SEC filings indicate 'something' should be expected to occur..
one of the reasons I bought in when I did...
Given that SEC filing, suspect tomorrow morn could be a 'rough' open...
Now do I buy more if it dips to 30 cents??
Really looking for some clarity on what they 'intend' to do with the secondary offering..
Was looking for a 900% + gain IF it got to $3/sh... now to see if I can get even half of that...
an announcement is forthcoming. The timing of when they say it, would help the share price stabilize in the event the sector starts to slide due to the excessive momentum..
in response, if management is that big of a concern to you, it sounds like its time for you to 'find something else' to invest in then....
As far as management 'not being shareholder' friendly, my only concern is that they execute and achieve their goal of getting the product approved.
I am fully aware that secondaries are an 'evil' necessity and if management deems them necessary to achieve their plan, not much I can do if I don't like it, but to move on...
But as someone who has played in the baby bio sandbox for a lot of years, secondaries and r/splits are frequently involved, and should be anticipated...
they really need the institutional level market to be involved, and thats going to be a combination of a 'reason to want the shares' (news) and a price level they like to see before they buy in (used to be around $7, then slid down to $5, not sure where its at now)
See if management is 'playing' it this way
the only way the 'investors' will be screwed is IF the company fails to achieve what we 'invested for'...
A market cap before and after the r/split doesn't change, only the share price and the number of shares involved.
I have another one that I owned a lot of that ran up to $1.50 (cost basis was sub 30 cents), thought I would get $8 as approval decision day approached. Would have given them a market cap of around $1 Billion on a product that is needed and has no competition (CRMD)..
They did a 1-5, share count is now around 32 Million, an NDA has been filed for, and the share price is around $4.5 on a recent 'hit' due to a secondary offering at $4.5. But the outlook has not changed.
So if a Billion was justified before, the justification still stands. So instead of $8 for an initial target price?? I am a thinking CRMD can see upwards of $30/sh and one has to expect a forward split to be involved at some point...
So again, on ATNM, IF the premise and target price estimations are still valid and they achieve what we invested for? A reverse split could be a temporary 'blip' on the path to that 'pre split' target price.
And as far as the timing goes?? IF the interim readout is positive, it could lend support to the share price especially if some of the shares are absorbed by bigger players who tend to sit on them, which will help raise the potential volatility of the outstanding shares.. maybe make the short sellers a little more wary.. (smile)
well, the way I read it, it looks like they are going to do a r/split as this is a recent filing, its now on ATNMs website under SEC filings (I didn't see it there earlier, might have missed it).
And the reason? I thought that they were going to be discussing the interim data, liked the commentary regarding the data possibly being good enough to ask for an early halt to the PH 3.
So WHY?
1. They want to open this up to the bigger players?? who historically, look for a share price of $5 or more to buy into. Not a secret, that without the bigger players, the little retailers are going to have a tough time absorbing enough shares to push this up that much by themselves.
2. Why NOW?? maybe its because the data readout is pending, and the thought process is, they anticipate good 'news', possibly a halt request. So they do a r/split, get the share price in the 'buying range', release the data, have a very low share count on top of good news, and maybe, just maybe, the share price holds cause the low share count raises the risk to the short sellers in the event 'more good news' is released.
Just don't know, but based on how I have seen a few or these go the last few years, maybe this is whats on tap. For myself, IF the data supports approval, in the end, I will make 'something', and it will be the same amount IF a $1 Billion market cap is justifiable... (ie, my current target price of only $3/sh)
https://ir.actiniumpharma.com/all-sec-filings#document-3068-0001213900-20-020390
Sure would be nice to get an announcement of 'moving dirt' with the PM sector running the way it is...
Well, if there is a bright spot out a potential R/split, its that the 'target price' of $3 was pretty reasonable, would have gave them a market cap of $1.2 Billion or so...
saw that $3 happening as they went towards an approval decision..
Now, that $3 is going to be some multiple of, the only question is now, will the market be as willing to give them a $1.2 Billion market cap if the share price for that to happen ends up being say, $15 (if a 1-5 occurs)...
Hoping they keep the r/s small (no more than a 1=4), and release good interim news and let it carry the share price the rest of the way up to $5...
make sure YOU sell/short then (smile)...
Well, still expecting the trial data interim readout to be 'good'..
hopefully good enough to warrant them asking for a halt to offset the r/s negatives
ah, missed the part that they just filed it as I didn't see it posted on their website when I looked this morn in response to the share price hit.
Ok, so its going to happen (was hoping the share price was going to reach a $ on the interim readout and hold, especially if the data was good enough to ask for a 'halt' to the trial.
Who knows, maybe that still happens and the r/split doesn't occur, or it occurs on the news cycle...
but damn, was hoping it wasn't going to be needed...
yep, MAY.... still 2 months away...
So until they say something officially?? Question is, who is behind this BS this morn IF there is nothing official out from the company...
Well now, this is pretty interesting...
Very little volume at the opening of trading, yet they dumped it into the low 40 cents range...
Wonder what this is all about..
As for the R/split, yep, one was 'authorized', but thats it... unless someone has a link to an official announcement?
Run at 'stop loss' orders this morn??
See on the open, they 'hit' it hard, and just a guess, but they went after 'stop loss' orders this morn and cleaned a bunch of shares out of folks hands.
Had this happen the other day on CRMD as well...
ought to be a 'law' against stealing folks shares like this IF this is what happened. If nothing else, there should be a warning associated with the use of stop loss orders that says, doing this could result in your shares being stolen from you without warning..
But will acknowledge, a consolidation period right now is a good thing, and looking to see if it can hold above 50 cents while it consolidates the nice run it had...
While we wait for the interim readout...
Been wondering how long they can keep the run going... cause my charting software is showing hints that 'some' of the miners are now on the verge of rolling over (again)... topping out so to speak.
This has happened a couple of times now in this run since $1700 on gold... and in all cases so far, something has happened to spark another leg up...
And as a disclaimer: I did make money on JDST this last week and am prepared to take another bite at it and possibly ZSL on Monday morn...
ie, I will not buy into any miner at these prices, even AXU. I do hold a lot of their shares again after flipping my shares at $3.06 and reloading at sub $2.8. But with my 'current' upside target price of $5 on an announcement of mining has commenced?? I would prefer a wider spread between the buy and target price, so putting capital to work in a few others instead.
And IF a pullback in the PM sector does commence and looks to finally break the momentum, be a tough call whether to hold onto AXU or not (ie, sell, and hope to rebuy lower before they make an announcement of)
but again, seeing signs that a possible topping is developing in the miners. And note, there was a report out last week that the buying of the physical has dropped off in Q2, but that the buying of the physically backed ETFs has helped keep the demand from falling even further.. And not surprised, cause if its a PM sector ETF, it has been running (exception, there are 3 or 4 of them that start with DG that have very little volume/interest in them that haven't done much)
was looking at their shares at $1.06 earlier today, but passed on the buy opportunity, figured to see if it bottomed out there or a bit lower.
Just checking in and see the news. That they had the number of 'survival events' needed. Now the question is tho, is there a ratio of of survivor events to X for a minimum number they had to meet to pass the trial??
again, just doing some digging into this one... thought I had a little more time before this news hit...
and now i have to see if there was a minumum # they had to meet or whether simply knowing that they met the minimum number of survivor events is all thats needed to be called 'successful'...
Thoughts
are the Robinhood 'gang' messing around with ATNM??
Just read an article about how Kodak has been running, and how the 'unwary' on Robinhood are once again involved in something that has run hot and then faced some 'heavy' profit taking...
in that article it mentioned ATNM as the '2nd heaviest volume' traded stock (did not confirm this claim) and it appeared to infer that the Robinhood gang might be involved in chasing the share price higher..
Just an FYI...
and I was a thinking it might be moving due to the anticipated PH 3 interim data readout...
disclaimer: bunch of shares, monitoring to see if it can hang onto 50-55 cents now...
ok, just starting to evaluate ONTX... see that the PH 2 'passed', enough to advance to the PH 3...
but wondering why Wall Street is only pricing this one at a $ and change??
Note: flipped shares 2x now in the last week (gains on one, little given back on the next) cause of the strong run up and now pulling back...
well, with around 25 Million shares available for trading, and what looks like a 'go it alone' stance from management, they want to sell 10 million shares to raise $50 Million to get things going?? I don't like the hit to the 'top line share price', but if they make it to a market cap of $1 Billion,
I will take a share price of $28 with 35 Million shares outstanding vs $40 with 25 Million...
still a pretty nice return... especially if it helps them get to $28/sh...
had 50 cents as a '1st' target price for the interim readout..
a $ if the interim is 'good'...
and $3 if the PH 3 passes (which based on the PH 2 results, I expect it to)
and really interested in whether or not they attempt to say, you know what, the interim readout is 'good enough' to ask for an early halt (can't remember who from the company hinted at this as something being considered)
missed the move up to near $3.4...
But did sell all of my shares at $3.05 cause of the move, cause of how hard silver has run. Was looking for a pullback and got one.
Reloaded today at $2.74.
Now to see if it can reclaim $3/sh, my current target price. Will adjust my target price to $5 IF they make the announcement of moving into production...
Been a LONG ride from a $... and ultimately, thinking $8 is not out of the question if silver prices can hold above $17... (better profit margins)
agree, prefer not to see one.
Yet, if they are going to do one, lets hope they can generate enough market interest to get this share price up above a $ first.
And then, lets hope if they do one its done when there is news to stimulate buyers.. But can see them doing one to get the share price up to around $4-5 to open up the shares to the bigger traders who have a 'minimum' price they will buy shares at.
but getting ahead of myself on this one a bit. Am just looking to see if the next consolidation is above 50 cents...
thought they had a pre approval to conduct a r/split as they decide is beneficial. No recollection of up to a 1:75 authorized...
and the last share count I saw was around 395 Million...
and a $160 Million market cap is a great place to be at at this stage...
recommend not getting ahead of ourselves on the 'market cap' until its 'approved'...
With 400 Million shares (approx) outstanding, my target price of $3 that I held before has been reduced to $2.50/sh for a market cap of $1 Billion...
They are going to have to sell a lot of product to justify a billion market cap, and its going to be interesting to see how it goes...
note: while I say this, I am kind of hoping we see this go thru a 'typical' bio approval process where the share price is slowly pushed higher by the momentum chasers as events move along towards approval...
and if there isn't some news this morn pushing this, I am expecting to see this give back a good portion of this morns run. But hoping it holds above 50 cents when the dust settles..
got a 'breakout' signal Thursday night...
Tried to place an order in the pre-market, wasn't allowed on ATNM...
Had something to do and couldn't look at the market till later in the day and it had jumped up...
trend indicators are on the verge of confirming that something is developing after a nice consolidation off that run up that touched 60 cents before pulling back...
looking for that interim on the ongoing PH 3...
going to be interesting to see if AXU can 'differentiate' itself from the rest of the silver miners from the aspect of,
the are actually going to be doing something that if they follow thru (commence production), will change their fiscal status in a 'good way'...
Like AXUs chart, wondering if the steady uptrend (approx 50 cents: 32%) since just after mid-June is reflective of this 'doing something different' as buyers are quietly taking positions in advance of the anticipated announcements such as
'production commenced today'
disclaimer: own shares, target price $3 now that the news they are considering starting production has been revealed. $3-5 IF they start production...
Miner charts been looking 'top heavy', run out.
several of the 'big miners' have been struggling to move much higher, with the juniors doing a lot of the heavy lifting lately. (JNUG, GDXJ)
So been a wondering, IF the PM sector is burning itself out to the point it can't live up to the hype of the last few months (to $2000 and then the moon),
Will AXU commencing production be able to 'stand' on its own merit, and will anyone be paying attention??
At least its not 'overpriced' already...
1st target: $3 in play now that they have their permit and announced the intention to commence production
2nd target: $3-5 IF they start delivering silver in Q4
disclaimer: own shares... and would like to ultimately see $5-$8/sh within a year of delivering silver..