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Patterson is Now !!!
The POS Af will be in jail soon ...then no one ...especially any new longs will not listen to the idiot ....what a total criminal
Let them come They will be forced to cover in the next 48 hours that will be the end for a while for them
They are going to get wiped out this time it turns...they won't be to afford to hold or borrow
It's also actually easier fir them to borrow after uplist
Agree with short Gild and Long CYDY.....
Well...we will be back above 6 by monday next
Not worried at all at this point
Anyone selling or worried is not paying attention...or haven't been in the game for the past few years
All good ...sleep well
Buying everything I can
In a couple weeks this will reverse and be even bigger than what we thought in the past
Get real..yes we need to finish the test and hand in our paper ...but we will once again
Agreed diesel...Nader has always said the FDA has been working with us I take him at his word and agree that once they see the data and cydy trials bring the results we are all expecting
. it will be approved quickly
The country and the world needs it
Thank you for reminding peoplen...especially newbies how we got here
I am all in ....and have been for years ...
No protest here ...we will win in the end ...and soon many more will see ...
Thanks ...that means I need to go on there and tell everyone this is illegal fake news ...I know how to do that as well...
Excellent points BlueMan...it seems to me that They are definitely showing the FDA they are ready here in the United States and I also think it could be the latter that they already know things are going this good direction and they needed to get this filed
CHAIRMAN Kelly is on as well...that's important...I think there are some things that we haven't thought about yet that he could talk about ....
Won't even try and guess
Just seems interesting timing ...doubt it's just fluffy
Seeking A ...new article....screw you AF !!!
CytoDyn: Bears Bring Out Their Champion To Take On The Army Of Bulls
Jul. 8, 2020 4:46 PM ET|7 comments | About: CytoDyn Inc. (CYDY)
Biologics
Biologics
Long/short equity, Deep Value, Growth, biotech
(4,400 followers)
Summary
CytoDyn’s stock is under selling pressure following a short-centric report from the notorious Citron Research. The report’s webpage was quickly deleted but the damage was significant with the share price.
Citron is the second champion to throw some mud on CYDY by focusing on the company’s promotional interviews and lack of data for Leronlimab efficacy for COVID-19.
I attempt to reassemble the bear report and come up with a bear thesis for CYDY. In addition, I argue a concise rebuttal against some of the bears’ talking points.
CytoDyn (OTCQB:CYDY) is starting to attract some attention from all corners of the market, including some of the best champions of the bears. Notorious bear research firm, Citron Research, has been summoned to take on the seemingly unstoppable CYDY that has run-over previous challengers, including Adam Feuerstein. According to some accounts, Citron’s report pointed out that the stock’s recent run-up is not justified and the company has no data to claim that Leronlimab is a cure for COVID-19. Unfortunately, I cannot reference the report directly because the post was pulled shortly after posting it. Of course one should suspect some foul play going on here for a number of reasons. Admittedly, the bear thesis does have teeth and should be considered by new longs and longstanding bulls. However, I have yet to see any legitimate argument against Leronlimab and its ability to address a broad array of medical conditions and diseases.
I intend to review the recent events and discuss some of the key bear talking points. Afterward, I will provide my own rebuttal to some of their points but will also highlight some key downside risks bulls should keep an eye out for.
CytoDyn LogoImage Source: CytoDyn
Citron Report Fiasco
Back on June 30th, I was performing my daily midday portfolio check and noticed CYDY was once again up to a new 52-week high. The company had announced that it received the go-ahead to start the COVID-19 trial for Leronlimab in Mexico, which has experienced several hotspots since the pandemic began. It looked as if the stock had turned into a monster and every press release triggered another 30% gain. I have been bullish on CytoDyn’s COVID-19 efforts but I was starting to think “this is getting out of hand.” Just as I was starting to look at the charts, the share price dropped through the intraday VWAP under a strong spike in volume. At first, I thought it was a big block trade, but the tape sped up and I decided to take some more profits just in case we were witnessing a “blow-off top.” Disappointingly, the selling pressure escalated and I started to scramble for headlines but I couldn’t find SEC filings or official press release. At that point, I knew a big downgrade or hit piece had hit the wire but I couldn’t find anything on my news feed. So, I checked Twitter (TWTR) and found some CYDY chatter referencing Citron Research, which usually brings in serious day traders and prop firms. Indeed, I was debating on unloading a large portion of my remaining position, but I reminded myself that nothing has fundamentally changed for the worse. After a brief chuckle, I decided to find the full report from Citron…but it was gone. My chuckle turned into a full-blown belly laugh because I came to realize something dubious had occurred and the evidence had been erased. Yes, we don’t know the details about why the post was removed but after finding some the excerpts from the report I figured the report was used as a tool more than actual fundamental analysis. It appears that Citron believed that CYDY was a “big joke” and that the company had zero data supporting that Leronlimab was a “cure” for COVID-19.
Was Citron Correct?
In a way…yes…CytoDyn has not reported any COVID-19 data from a human trial that shows it could be a cure. However, CytoDyn has not been able to report any clinical trial data because the trials are just getting started or is ongoing. Indeed, the company has reported some anecdotal reports from doctors and patients who were administered Leronlimab, but I have not heard or read any statement by the company that claims that Leronlimab is a “cure” for COVID-19.
Figure 1: CytoDyn COVID-19 (Source: CYDY)
Leronlimab is a CCR5 antagonist that could help reduce the RANTES chemokine, which is able to recruit leukocytes to inflammatory sites. The tissue damage caused by the COVID-19 virus creates inflammation, including the cytokine storms in the lungs, which has been one of the primary causes of death in COVID-19 patients. Essentially, Leronlimab’s mechanism of action has the potential to help patients with the hyper-inflammation from COVID-19, including patients who are fighting off a cytokine storm in the lungs. Leronlimab might not be classified as a cure but science supports the company’s efforts and should be worthy of investigating.
In regards to the stock being a “joke,” the company recently submitted their BLA for Leronlimab for HIV, which could eventually lead to over $1B in annual revenue. What is more, Leronlimab has several other clinical trials for cancer, NASH, GvHD, and HIV monotherapy. The company’s market cap is roughly $3B, which is undervalued exclusively based on the potential revenue from HIV and not including the potential revenue from the other indications. Let us assume the company will eventually hit $1.7B in annual revenue from Leronlimab in combination with HAART (Figure 2).
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/9/13/48523746-15683921427577004.jpg
Figure 2: Leronlimab HIV Market (Source: CYDY)
Using the industry’s average price-to-sales of 5x and the $1.7B in revenue, we would get a market cap of $8.5B or $16 per share. As a result, I don’t think the SEC needs to halt CYDY just because retail investors are looking to invest in a stock that has potential near-term and long-term prospects.
The reality is that CCR5 is involved or responsible in numerous diseases and illnesses, so until Leronlimab fails to show efficacy against a target indication. Thus far, CytoDyn hasn’t fallen short in a clinical trial, so I would say the potential value of CYDY should be unrestricted and decided by the investors willing to invest in the ticker.
Figure 3: Leronlimab in Cancer and Other Potential Indications (Source: CYDY)
Why Did It Work?
CytoDyn has several hallmarks of most pre-commercial biotech companies, including lack of revenue; a high cash-burn; regulatory risks; and dependence on secondary offerings to keep the lights on. Longstanding CYDY shareholders have endured years of waiting for a commercial launch and numerous offerings, so I have to concede that point to the bears. In addition, the company’s regular use of promotional interviews often used by other smaller OTC stocks that are trying to raise money and attention is concerning. Furthermore, the company’s CEO, Nader Pourhassan, recently sold a notable amount of shares while encouraging warrant holders to exercise.
Considering the points above, we can say there are several legitimate concerns that made CytoDyn an easy target for a bearish report. In addition, the stock is traded OTC, so the trading volumes can be extremely low and the shareholder base is primarily retail investors. These conditions make it ripe for shorts to follow the Citron signals and pile on to cut through a thin order book to hit retail stop losses. In addition, the stock had run from around $1.00 to $10.00 over the course of a few months, so, it was only a matter of time before we saw a solid pullback.
Key Points For The Bulls
First a foremost, Leronlimab’s record is still clean and nothing substantial has changed for any of its indications or trials. As I mentioned above, CCR5 is connected to a slew of diseases and conditions, so Leronlimab’s potential upside is immense both clinically and commercially if it is able to get approved in its current pipeline programs. Again, we don’t know Leronlimab will be successful in all its efforts, but we haven’t seen any sign that it won’t be. I know bears want to point out that Leronlimab is not a “miracle drug” or a “cure” but Leronlimab doesn’t need to eradicate a disease to be approved and offer a clinical benefit that generates a commercial demand.
Another important point to note for the bulls in the company’s recent executive or organizational progress. CytoDyn appears to be making deals left and right on numerous fronts to get Leronlimab prepared for a potential commercial launch in the U.S. for HIV; organizing clinical trials and studies in the U.S. and other countries, and making additions to their leadership team. In fact, CytoDyn recently signed a distribution and supply deal for Leronlimab for COVID-19 with American Regent in the United States. American Regent is a Daiichi Sankyo (OTCPK:DSKYF) company that develops, manufactures, and distributes injectable sterile pharmaceuticals. These partnership/collaboration deals required a large amount of due diligence and financial investments on both sides, so it should give investors some confidence that other companies or organizations were willing to commit their time and resources to Leronlimab’s success.
American Regent LogoImage Source: American Regent
Last but not least…is momentum and hype. The company and stock have been riding a strong wave of momentum in 2020 and it is starting to gain some attention from investors and analysts from all corners of the market. Unfortunately, the climb from ~$0.40 to $10.00 will attract naysayers and desperate attempts to derail the CYDY train. On the one hand, it is frustrating to see games being played with people’s money and investments. On the other hand, the attempts to discredit the company and its investors can be a good sign that their stock is worthy of a smear campaign in order to bring it down or demoralize its shareholders. There are plenty of other biotech companies that are very worthy of bearish reports but their decision to go after CYDY and their retail investors makes me believe someone was trapped or was looking to get in.
I will point to Tesla (TSLA) as a great example of a company that is attempting to solve some problems and change their industry but was hammered by some analysts claiming there was no way Elon Musk could deliver or the stock was extremely overpriced for its current fundamentals. Indeed, Elon Musk’s vision for the company might appear to be unattainable but the company continues to improve and could be one of the leading brands of the future, so the stock is trading at a premium valuation. I believe CytoDyn is following a similar scenario, where CytoDyn continues to expand Leronlimab’s potential uses and investors want to be involved in the stock because the possibility for Leronlimab to be a once in a lifetime drug is still intact.
Keep An Eye Out
The second half of 2020 should be filled with press releases and data readouts. I believe the data needs to be good in order to keep the premium valuation. I don’t expect the data to reveal astonishing results that shows Leronlimab to be a “cure”, so I expect the bears to have an “I told you so” moment. However, I am looking to see if Leronlimab demonstrates sufficient efficacy to be used in both moderate and severe cases but is able to maintain its impressive safety profile that other COVID-19 therapies tend to lack. The company expects the data from both clinical trials to be released at some point in July, so investors can’t fall asleep at the wheel.
Investors also need to keep an eye out for additional executive activity and agreements for Leronlimab. I expect the company to announce supplementary clinical trials, collaborations, deals, etc. in the coming months to further expand their efforts in COVID-19 and other endeavors. If the upcoming data is satisfactory, we could see other companies and organizations looking to tap Leronlimab for combination therapies or start new clinical trials in other jurisdictions. Moreover, investors should remain vigilant for potential announcements concerning government funding to help support CytoDyn’s COVID-19 programs and trials.
Conclusion
I believe the bears are going throw everything they got at CYDY in the coming weeks and months as the company moves closer to a potential approval for HIV and following COVID-19 trial data. Again, there is downside risk in CYDY and the bears haven’t been defeated yet. However, most of CYDY’s downside risks are typically endemic for most small-cap biotech stocks. As a result, I would recommend CYDY investors to have a list of bullish conditions that need to be maintained in order to hold their shares. Personally, I have trimmed my conditions down to CytoDyn receiving FDA approval for Leronlimab in HIV in combination with HAART and the company begins the process of uplisting to a major exchange by the end of 2021. I am going to focus on those two conditions and will not let short-sellers distract me with dated or erroneous downside risks that have little to do with my bull thesis.
Exactly blueman
Invested in the science years ago and continued as much as possible ..its the real reason this will be the phenomenal solution for many of our time ....will there be other drugs ...of course ..but I know which one I want by my bedside
Excellent post...TY
Right
total scumbag ...they'll get whacked soon ...if not be the SEC...then the stock price
Exactly right on ...
...this is going to explode and the shorts will be holding onto the rocket like the old Wiley coyote...beep beep
We need to educate people and continue to contribute to the understanding of this drug so that corruption or other bureaucratic rigging will be thwarted by truth facts and saving lives ....I do this everyday Not because of the money but because of the opportunity we have to show what this can do for many different issues associated with the economy and the pandemic
It's time has come
Yes same with some people that I had get in at around 2.50....after they now understand what we all have known for years..many if them bought back in around 5.80 and 6 last week
We also filed manipulation letters with the SEC ...criminals
Have done that as well as directly to Hannity...Payne...and Saphier
They should love this story ...also throw in the fact that Nader loves this country and saving lives is his passion...great story in these trying times
Many new announcements next week...the Saturday interview on Dr.Been will just be the platform but some of the newer catalysts we have interested in are happening and announced..beyond distribution for USA..beyond IMMUVANCE....we are talking changing the game multiple ways
Looking forward to it GLTA
Totally agree in 2 mo this NO one will even remember those criminals except the guys they are taking a shower with in jail hopefully ...the next 60 days should be huge for people that have done the real DD on this company...kelly...nader...lalez...and PATTERSON...are the people I listen to ..not scams and crapola
Yep...I am thinking 7.11 close bit this power hour will turn into next week is
power week !!!!
And then power month!!!!
Been Tweeting Portnoy for weeks now ...watch out Eve ...don't know how big this thing gets
#LERONLIMAB
4$ to 6$ next 2 weeks...
....8$ before results and uplist...after that the upside is undetermined...
Then we move forward with more funding and more indications...
Steady climb
Wow!!!!
Yes .....less than a couple weeks and the world will know about leronlimab...it will continue to creep up and then .....????
The news is coming and those who know cydy know it ....others will know it even more soon ...I am assuming a steady climb and then BOOM
Wow it saves one out of 5 from dying
We will save 7 out of 8
ANYTHING coming from anyone that has connection to AF is totally off their rocker ...they will burn over the next 3 weeks ..plus they have not been around as they should be scared to death of what is coming....there's no negatives they can suck on
Anyone who didn't get a ton of great news and leadership for all of us out of the conference call this week either wasn't listening or too busy being negative. ..its a home run as Dr. LALEZARI would say
The next month will be explosive....can't wait for everything cydy has coming ....BOOM
Huge info today
NASH...UPLIST...RESULTS IN JULY...GOOD BYE single digits ...
Looking forward to hearing from NP and Dr.Kelly tomorrow....Kelly is on for a reason folks
Big News POSITIVE.....could be HUGE
But what do I know ...only been around forever
Go CYDY
Great trading tight range today and in the last couple weeks ...this stock is managed well for the new investors getting ready to come in ...seen it all before ...great next few weeks...uplist ...results....all lining up perfectly
Love it !! $$$$$$$
R S NEVER WORKS OUT FOR EXISTING SHAREHOLDERS ...
We can get this done without that nonsense for sure
I can wait until July and August ...going to be great
Ha...95% of them are just there taking pics of 5% which are bored vandals
BOps
My Schwab guys told me if i have a sell order always in play they cannot
I have a sell in at 90 a share ...good for 6 mon
He said financing should be done this weekend and Mulholland tempered that slightly
..but reaffirmed the process qas3mkving along with uplisting
BoroFD...totally agree...I trust in many things and have always been a 3/4 glass full person ...have many friends here in this as well ...i keep saying CYDY and leronlimab is at the end of the beginning...and holding on for this soon to be huge ride is exciting...people get frustrated with the day to day bouncing around but over the next 6 months we should have .ore opportunities presented to us than many big pharmaS cod dream of
Have a great weekend and you basis of @2.50 will be rewarded at least 10 times
Did he also say that everything was on target for financing this week ...like he stated on the CC ???? I know mulholland tried to feather it a bit but still sounded like we were close
I love the smell of leronlimab in the morning....smells like victory
Definitely...sounds exactly like the wonder of Leronlimab....there are doctors in India that are already aware ....they have to be ...this will be excellent .....Hello USA !!!!
Cold water in the face usually wakes em up !