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Depends on the rest of the deal.
To get $100M upfront would mean we're likely dealing with a $1B+/year indication. So the deal would probably be something like $100M upfront + $400M in milestones + 9% royalty.
So probably $2-5/share.
I don't know who would give us $100M upfront or on what but that's another question.
I think he invested in Sqaulus because he knows funding is not coming his way and their product is a better bet than our pipeline with only $4M.
That's assuming everything is above board with this whole Squalus business.
$13-$17/share this year you're saying?
Come on, man!.
I don't expect to make it back. I expect to slowly lose it all.
However this one is beyond a sacred cow to me at this point.
As I have said before, I would rather lose 100% than walk with pennies on the dollar(s). I couldn't bear to be out and then there be a turn around. If we got back to $0.30 or so I might consider an exit...at least that would be a sum of money I could care about in exchange for missing a run over $1.00.
It's a terrible investment strategy in general but it is what it is. Basically a cult.
Not really. A $500M market cap isn't odd for a company that was about to start a phase 3 and possibly partner an indication with $1B/year in sales.
Absurd.
Applying technical analysis on a 7 year chart to a clinical pharma company is absurd.
If we return to $0.30 it will because good information regarding our recent investment in laser technology comes out or some substantial deal making/funding progress is made with our pipeline.
Brilacidin...changing the game since late 2014. It changed my game.
I used to have money.
Money isn't...but the clinical trial results probably are...
We had our shot at COVID. Time to look forward to lasers.
I don't think that really helps.
I hope it does. We need something good.
Do we even have terms for that yet? I assume it is less than the AS deal otherwise it would have been PR'd.
Our fate is tied to Israeli Lasers.
I believe it was 6% but with a reformulation, which they carried out, it will be 2%.
But if you want to go with 6% it will still be 5+ years before we are to market and have earned enough to fund a $30M phase 3.
A fair point hopefully...but I was pretty generous on the revenue timeline...with a 2% royalty it will be a trickle if it ever comes.
2% of a $100M/year drug takes a long time to get to $30M.
I was talking about our patents. We have been sitting on many of them for a very long time and we have a very long way to go to even get to market. Injecting another 5+ years for AS to get B-UP to market and allow the $2M/year in royalties to trickle in in order to fund $30M worth of trials is not a strategy.
Then where's the deal? We've been ready for phase 3 for over two years now.
Why are we spending our precious capital on Israeli lasers rather than a phase 3 OM trial?
What was negative about it? It was quite positive. Only $90,000 worth of volume moved the stock 44% or $4.5M.
Hope you sold. And just like that it was gone a week later.
Well...it was only ~$90,000 worth of new investors.
The upside is the market cap went up $4.5M today on only $90,000 worth of trading. So if we actually get a surge of new investors the stock could really pop up $0.10-$0.20.
What do you think this means for the stock price over the next several years?
Thank you for the thoughts.
Indeed it is tough to do much more research into Squalus without public filings. I'm just hoping some of this opaque behind doors stuff benefits us for once. Maybe Leo managed this legit tip and deal from a good connection. However, the risk is really on the shareholder shoulders, not LE.
When setting aside all cynicism with regard to this investment and Leo Ehrlich, that's how I believe LE saw it when he made the investment.
I also believe our pipeline pretty dead end given the two deals we signed already.
My gut does not eschew all of my cynicism though. I would be inclined to do lots of research into LE and his connections to find out who knows who at Sqaulus. My left gut say something fishy is going on here. My right gut says our pipeline is crap so why the hell not roll the dice on some ancillary tech with our remaining cash - worked for TSLA and MSTR.
(Un)Fortunately, I no longer have enough money on the table (due to shareholder decimation rather than sales on my part) to bother with the effort. I have written off this investment so I'm fine with some wild gamble like Sqaulus at this point. One last YOLO I guess. We weren't going to bring an actual drug to market anyway. If we get lucky on the investment - great. If it was just a funneling of our money to buddies at Squalus - just fine...we were going to $0 anyway.
He filled in the blanks. This laser company is a better investment than our pipeline.
Yeah....I don't get it. But that's ok. I'm glad someone feels good about IPIX.
But I'm still here long and strong to the bitter end.
Or slow the burn on non-renewable and rapidly dwindling cash so that it can support his salary through retirement.
Whichever nets him more....hopefully it's the buyout.
You don't really need an update from Leo, I can help you with that:
Leo's getting paid. You're not.
That's probably how it will go until IPIX runs out of money. If we're lucky Leo has one more good pump angle in him and we'll get a brief chance to escape with something at a significantly higher stock price.
Fingers crossed.
What sort of patent acrobatics can be performed to extend the B patent life should something materialize? There are at least a couple more years of regulatory time even if we partner and start a phase 3 tomorrow.
Why would we not have partnered this 7 years ago if it was viable? Instead Leo opted to do whatever he did to land us in our current situation?
I can see holding out a little hope for B-OM and B-IBD...but B-ABSSSI? It's been on the shelf for seven years for a reason.
The effort to disparage everything IPIX has been going on for over seven years now. That doesn't mean things are going well for IPIX though.
If Brilacidin is so great why has it only pulled in ~$420K in partnership money since the start of 2015?
Meanwhile the company has burned north of $100M on pipeline work with very little to show for it.
The only saving grace here is that the market cap is SO low that if there is even a shred of legitimacy in the pipeline we should be undervalued here.