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That is a silly thing to say. Why would you be under the impression that B is worthless?
Three phase 2 trials on three indications with pretty good results and no significant safety concerns on any of them.
Significant upside from here for IPIX when a B deal is inked.
You're a bit confused I think. Let me help clarify:
From the 10-Q, Menon's position as an employee, specifically President of Research, was terminated on Sept 18:
"In addition, Dr. Menon’s employment with the Company was terminated on September 18, 2018. Dr. Menon continues to serve on the Company’s Board of Directors."
From the 8-K, Menon resigns from his board position:
"On December 11, 2018, Dr. Krishna Menon resigned from his position as a director of Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc. (the “Company”), effective immediately. His resignation was not a result of any disagreement with the Company."
Prurisol is dead and gone. It should be mourned appropriately and then buried along with 2018.
They require the space for all of the many indications in the lab:
B-OM prep work for phase 3.
B-UP/UPS/IBD formulation efforts
B-HS preclinical work/formulation.
B-AD preclinical work/formulation.
B-Acne preclinical work/formulation.
B-Biofilms work.
K oral formulation.
There is a tremendous amount of potential in this pipeline and a huge amount of ongoing work. With the right partner you're going to be glad they held onto all that lab space.
The company did not fire Menon. He resigned, likely into retirement, with no conflict with the company. Hopefully his years of work on Kevetrin and Brilacidin will bear fruit for him and all shareholders. If the resignation was an act of accountability for the Prurisol failure then that is fine as well.
I'm not sure why you're so focused on the lease either. $19,000 a month is a drop in the bucket. That's not going to make or break our company. We are continuing preclinical/formulation work on multiple indications and need appropriate office space to do so.
2019 will be better. The company has little choice and much incentive to do a deal. A clear path forward with some cash in the bank will allow the market to give us forward-looking credit once more. You will see.
There appears to be a lot of silliness here.
Massive reverse splits, taking the company private, $0.50 buyouts, etc. None of this has any basis in reality from any of the company guidance.
We have been on the ropes, no doubt. It has obviously been a painful year both for the stock price, the balance sheet, and the pipeline. We have been battered with funding issues, a drug failure, and many missed milestones.
All is not lost though. The 2018 round bell rings to close it out on Monday and we take our seat in the corner to collect ourselves. The blood of Prurisol and other shortcomings is being wiped from our eyes (and the website!). We take a refreshing drink from the bottle of EOP2 waters. We wait for the coach to lay out badly needed plan for us.
The 2019 bell will ring soon and we will come out swinging. We just need to land one punch. Something to get us back into the fight.
There is always hope.
$IPIX Deal Coming. 2019.
A nice little boost into the close.
2019 will be the year of $IPIX.
Well of course there is risk and expense. If there was none then we would just take $10 billion instead of 2 or 3. There is tons of value in our pipeline...no need to settle on your small numbers. Give it some time...I think you'll be pleasantly surprised with what Leo is cooking up.
Too negative. We'll get there. Just need to ink the first deal and we'll be climbing toward that billion dollar market cap in no time.
$IPIX I smell a deal coming!
I think there is about 36ish million warrants @0.11 that will surely be exercised by Menon and Erlich. Assuming we get a deal, those would be in the money so our actual fully diluted is around 210 million plus any MFO.
Don't forget the oft-neglected B-ABSSSI! I'd not dead yet.
$1 billion would be very nice. About $4.70/share. Some might be disappointed but not too shabby especially on those $0.09s!
I most certainly have. We'll hopefully be green on the $3s eventually but I intend to make a killing on the $0.09s.
Indeed. I have some shares in the $3's so I can sympathize with some negativity. It's time to reframe expectations and move forward though.
Lots of potential in all our drugs aside from Prurisol. Just need to sign that partner and off we go.
B-ABSSSI was the reason I got into IPIX in the first place years ago. I am very displeased that we could not monetize it back then. For whatever reason, we did not.
I dont think that makes it dead or worthless, just less valuable than was anticipated. Or, it was just too expensive to fund ourselves and the partnerships available didnt pay enough to muddy the deal making on potentially larger indications like OM and IBD.
All we can do is look forward and value what we have to the best of our ability. The bits and pieces we have all add up to more than $100 million imo.
Rumors of B-ABSSSI's death are greatly exaggerated particularly due to our current market cap. I suspect partners were offering significantly less than Leo was looking for at the time.
With hindsight including two wasted Prurisol trials would it have been smarter to buckle down and do B-ABSSSI? Possibly, but that's not the path we took.
I believe B-ABSSSI will be advanced into a phase 3 by IPIX or an acquiring company.
Pretend we're a private company for now so the bad old stock price doesnt bother you any more.
If we're really at the end of the road and are up for auction, I think we'll find competitive bidders in the $200-400 million range pretty easily.
It's not hard to envision such a fictional scenario:
"We opted to purchase Company I to acquire a lead anti-inflammatory candidate starting pivotal trials for $400 million. In addition we received potential IBD/Acne/HS candidates ranging from preclinical to mid-stage trials. Additionally, mid-stage p53 modulator was also acquired."
I think Pfizer, Roche, Novartis, or Merck shareholders would be very pleased with such an announcement.
You're too low on B imo but you're entitled to yours.
You're also completely writing off Kevetrin. There are many preclinical cancer drugs netting $100 million upfront. Kevetrin appears to be safe and has shown p53 modulation in humans. I think IPIX could do a deal on K but with minimal money from a B deal may be able to substantially increase value with an oral formulation.
I know you said rhetorical so apologies in advance for responding.
I didn't say IPIX would accept such a deal if they felt there was a path to a higher valuation. Some might find that outrageous while others feel it is the right thing to do.
The present $20 million market cap is the result of many factors including a very poor balance sheet, lack of trial and milestone success in most of 2018, and a good helping of market manipulation/price suppression.
Again, we're probably not receiving the same offers that we would if we had $20 million in the coffers and a $2 stock price, but I think the market value is still way above $115 million in a full take out.
There are a dozen big pharma companies worth over $50 billion. You would have to assume than less than two of them would want to take a shot at Brilacidin for $115 million to have a $0.50 buyout.
My guess is IPIX could find a bidder for $300 million in a total buyout with considerable upside from there. Possibly even higher depending on how Kevetrin is actually perceived by big pharma.
I dont think we're worth a billion dollars like many here do or did. I still think were worth far more than $100 million though.
That is an absurd buyout valuation for Brilacidin. I have no doubt that B-ABSSSI alone can be sold for much more than $0.50 per share.
OM and IBD are very high potential indications with very low chance of failure due to adverse events. I am betting there are buyout offers available...they may be lower than what management will accept but are higher than the $0.50 you suggest.
Thank you, Farrell. The potential of B-OM is truly staggering. We just need to seal the deal and get on with development.
$IPIX Soon. Very soon.
Next Tuesday is New Years Day. I don't think CNNMoney is on that day. Would be a nice way to ring in the New Year though!
True. I think they want considerably more than $1 million upfront to really get things moving on Kevetrin, additional Brilacidin indications, and to relieve the balance sheet/funding pressure so the stock can really escape orbit.
I guess the upside to not having a lot of comparable drugs is all that blue sky!
I am thinking the number is more around what Lilkahuna suggested ($50-75 million upfront). The Validive deal posted by Daubers ($1 million upfront) seems like a bad comparison to what we are hopefully negotiating.
My original question as to how Lilkahuna reached that deal valuation is still there.
What is your best guess at deal terms williamsc?
On $50 million that is definitely true. What happens if we get one like the Valdive example provided by Daubers? $1 million upfront doesnt buy us much breathing room. It seems like that would be very low for OM and IBD combined though.
I am trying to get an idea of the size of an OM deal, namely the upfront payment and affect on the stock. I am contemplating buying some more IPIX but I have no idea where the numbers will come in when a deal arrives.
Can you elaborate a bit on how you reach $50-75 million upfront based on $500 million per year sales. I'm not too experienced with deriving this kind of valuation. If you don't have time that's ok and thank you for your thoughts.