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He is trying to maximize value. He will strike when the time is right.
As for attracting investors? Well, there seems to be a massive underestimation of IPIX value on most message boards. Once these misconceptions are dispelled, the investors will come.
You're underestimating Kevetrin heavily. $500 million is easily in play. I think the temptation has been resisted bacause pill form and 10 more patients turns it into a billion dollar asset for sure.
BMS acquired them to bolster their cancer pipeline. What's a cool billion or two to this new behemoth company of it means they lock down the most promising p53 modulator out there?
Kevetrin would make an excellent addition to this new mega pipeline.
There are many preclinical and phase 1 cancer treatments/targets with $50-100+ million upfronts. A safe, p53 modulator (2 humans and preclinical studies) is just as tantalizing as many IO assets.
I dont think it is that there was a lack of interest in a deal, I think Leo would be hesitant to do a deal if a simple oral reformulation and phase 2a will increase the partnership value significantly.
You writing more fiction? No reason to think there is no partner.
Any last ditch buyout would be considerably higher than $0.25. Likely $2+.
I would guess Leo was not interested in giving away 70-80% of Kevetrin in a preclinical/phase 1 deal. If IPIX had no other choice though, I suspect he could get far more than $20 million for it.
Odds are it probably wasnt Celgene on the terms sheet. No need to worry dud. IPIX is a pretty girl with many suitors.
No. You can look back at my post for the comps though. Kevetrin is very valuable at this point for sale or partnership regardless of what many others say.
Not to worry JT. As we demonstrated, Kevetrin is ready for a partnership now like dozens of other pre-clinical and phase 1 cancer drugs.
$100 million upfronts.
Yuge.
Let the PR sink in as that IRA money settles over the next week.
Then again maybe the market wants to see some deal cash before jumping in.
$IPIX Almost go time!
I just wish they would say "portfolio" or something instead of "estate". Polymedix had an "estate" sale that we took advantage of. We have a vibrant patent portfolio.
Looking good.
Do like the rappers and smack dat ask!
$IPIX Smack dat ask!
Phase 3 OM studies in 2019!
No way we're going it alone. Time to get excited.
$IPIX Deal Inbound.
I think you may be underestimating that old Pfizer buddy.
Avoiding confirmation bias is one of the key pillars of biotech or really any investing. You are very correct in cautioning against it.
Those were merely possible examples of confirmation bias to the bull case. They act as foil to the supposition by some that IPIX "interactions" may have degenerated to the level of bumping shopping carts with other execs and email spam.
Boo, is BTD still possible? I thought we were well beyond the review timeframe. I suppose they could sit on the news but that doesnt seem likely.
Is that what that means?
It could also mean one or multiple new discussions with pharma that are considerably more favorable than the previous non-binding B-OM term sheet.
Or it could mean talks for B-ABSSSI.
Or it could be talks regarding Kevetrin. We could consider the phase 2 data points as recent milestones.
Or there could be some companies waving a large sum for the whole enchilada.
Many many possibilities. A bright 2019 ahead for IPIX. Its a new year.
Yes. There was something odd about the placebo rate in that arm of the trial. It had superior results even compared to GC4419 which received BTD. It was about 30% lower than in the other two trials.
SOM in subjects with cisplatin Q1W schedule in IPIX trial.
Brilacidin: 7 / 13 or 53.8 %
Placebo: 5 / 11 or 45.5 %
Note: surprisingly low SOM rate for placebo.
Galera got BTD for GC4419 based on efficacy also in cisplatin Q1W group:
GC4419: 22 / 46 or 47.8 %
placebo: 31 / 46 or 64.9 %
If we can just find out what those placebo pills were packed with we will have OM licked!
Yes! Happy New Year to all. May this be our year!
Good analysis. I honestly thought we would be doing an OM phase 2b right up until the successful EOP2 announcement.
I don't see them in the 2019 attendee list. Am I blind?
Buying and selling. Lets see how it goes. IRA money can move this quite a bit at the current market cap.
It was much smaller than that. From the corporate presentation:
21 day high-dose Cisplatin OM
72.7% Placebo 8/11 pp (10/14 mITT)
14.3% Brilacidin 1/7 pp (2/8 mITT)
So only 11 placebo and 7 Brilacidin were dosed per protocol in this sub group. Very strong signal, fairly small numbers. I think this is why we didn't get BTD.
The overall trial was wonky with a very strong interim read and an overall weaker result compared to the interim. Sky high placebo rate as well.
I'm sure that $28 trade at 0.07 was completely legitimate, right?
I think today will be the lowest IPIX ever sees. Last day of tax loss selling. Retail IRA money coming in later this week. Deal soon to follow? Get ready for the surge. Lets see what actual investors think about Leo over the next couple weeks.
You keep missing the point. Kevetrin is worth money with no clinical trials (as demonstrated by those massive pre-clinical deals I cited). With a successful phase 1 you add more value. The two patients in the phase 2 are just a little cherry on top, not the meat of the value.
Forget about the phase 2. Value Kevetrin based on being a preclinical p53 modulator that has proven to be relatively safe in a phase 1.
There was nothing misleading about the 200mg arm aside from the results. It was a small sample and performed stronger than the other arms, particularly in the moderate disease sub group analysis.
This led the company to pursue a higher dosage, against moderate-severe disease with a more forgiving metric (PASI vs IGA) in a phase e.g. to further explore those sub group results.
Apparently none of the arms in the phase 2b matched what was seen in the 200mg arm of the way trial. It seems we were the victim of bad luck with a small sample size or overly optimistic subgroup analysis.
Bottom line, 200mg looked successful in 2a. Stronger dosages against large numbers of patients did not confirm. It is very unfortunate but happens all the time.
As for BTD on B-OM: my guess is our sub group analysis resulted in too small a patient sample size. We will never know the actual reason.
As for Prurisol, they got it wrong based on a small sample. It ended up being a failure and much time and treasure was squandered. Time to bury it and move on.
A lot of words regarding BTD. I think it is safe to assume it was not granted. Yes, that makes current B-OM less valuable than BTD B-OM. Even without it, I suspect a deal will be worth much more than $20 million.
The company has made many mistakes. We see all the failures because they have not unveiled the fruit of the past four years (IF it is coming). Until the curtain falls on IPIX reserve judgement on the path taken.
Gotta look forward, not back.
Our market cap is $20 million. Given what you know about B/K, do you think Leo can leverage a deal worth considerably more than that?
If so, buy some!
If not, sell or sit tight and pray for a turnaround.
I believe he will work out a deal worth substantially more than $20 million so I keep buying. We may never make it back to $4 but $0.10 to $1.50 is a hell of a return.
No one is talking about approval JT. I'm talking about striking a deal on a phase 2-ready asset. Look at some of the numbers from the article I cited. Very, very large deals on preclinical and phase 1 drugs.
Kevetrin has lots of value as is. It may not be what Leo has been looking for but it's a hell of a lot higher than $20 million.
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/drug-discovery/top-10-immuno-oncology-collaborations-2/
1 x phase 1 PD-1 copycat:
You ask that as if there is a choice. It will take as long as it takes. Unless you have gathered a majority of shareholders to hurry things along then it's all in Leo's hands.
Have a little faith.
I think you're missing the point. Kevetrin is already proven relatively safe in phase 1 and has shown modulation of p53 in 2/2 patients in a phase 2. Additionally, there is reason to believe bioavailability of Kevetrin will be high enough in oral form to be effective.
This is much farther along and original than many of the preclinical drugs netting hundreds of millions of dollars.
We had two routes in 2016:
1) Sign the deal or raise the cash and go to phase 3 on ABSSSI. This would provide immediate gratification and met expectations.
2) Take a step back and further develop Prurisol, B-OM, and B-UP.
This moved us back to being a phase 2 company rather than an phase 3 + partnership expectant company (ouch 1)
Prurisol failed after two large phase 2 trials and much squandered treasure (ouch 2)
B-UP and B-OM had pretty good results but also cost money and have not yet created a deal (ouch 3)
So we are in effect still paying the price for going route #2 but have not yet reaped the reward of doing so. The reward is a theoretically larger deal for B indications. We can't weigh which path would have been better until the final verdict is in on the pending B deal.
We'll know soon. It's in everyone's interest to get serious about deal-making now. If Leo was not realistic before, I suspect he'll be more down-to-earth with regard to deal terms now. We can have a very successful closeout of this investment without even mentioning the word "billion". Let's reserve final judgement when the score is in.
$IPIX Deal time.
What was highly suspect about the B-ABSSSI results? I posted the high level chart in my previous post.
Yes. Go look at some of the recent deal values on pre-clinical and phase 1 immuno-oncology drugs.
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/drug-discovery/top-10-immuno-oncology-collaborations-2/
A p53 combo drug that has passed phase 1 is easily worth $100 million. Most of the upfronts exceed that amount quite handily.
A Brilacidin deal is the linchpin to our prosperity. I agree that without it, existing shareholders will lose a substantial amount of equity in the company. This includes the company officers.
If they were holding out because they were only getting 50% of what they wanted, they will lose that in dilution anyway by holding out.
We utilized self-financing as best we could to maximize the pipeline value and now it's time to get final appraisals and sign the best deal.
What is your opinion on the feasibility of something like the following:
1) $50 million upfront + $200 million milestones + 15% royalties on B licensing
2) $200-600 million buyout of B and K
A BP would be locking up a huge amount of pipeline potential for just a few hundred million. We see many examples of me-too pre-clinical IO targets getting $100 million upfront payments.
Either of those deals rocket the stock price back to $1 or more. I would suspect numerous BPs would be interested in one or the other given their large cash reserves and flagging pipelines. It doesn't take a very large deal to improve our position substantially.
That would be great. What do you think gets us there? Obviously a deal but on what and with what terms are you expecting?