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Unless they were the only ones operating with a profit because they were lies.
I read this article a while back and it has stuck in the back of my mind ever since...
The Legal Way Canadian Marijuana Stocks Are Tricking Investors
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/10/18/the-legal-way-canadian-marijuana-stocks-are-tricki.aspx
If Aphria, CannTrust & OrganiGram are legally "cooking their books" you can be pretty sure that the vast majority of the others are probably doing the exact same thing. Just because it may be legal doesn't mean it's ethical.
I've successfully swing traded both Aphria & OrganiGram in the past but at least I did so with my eyes wide open and knowing the potential risks. Seems there are quite a few naive pot investors/speculators that may have just gotten a painful lesson about the "real world". Whether or not Aphria is just the latest example of corruption and greed or merely the victim of a short seller's "hit job" or some evil mastermind "takeover" plot remains to be seen but rest assured that if this devastating report really is true it's not the first instance and will certainly not be the last.
Here is a good summary that I like to eyeball every week just to get a quick gut feel for how things are going...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226026-weekly-cannabis-report-2018-farm-bill-mixed-bag-u-s-earnings
You can see that generally speaking there's a lot more green for the US pot stocks than the Canadian ones over the last several months but last week was not kind to either sub-sector. Many of the US stocks (like Origin House) reported terrific revenue growth but most also continued to lose money so it will likely be rough sledding until some can manage to actually start turning a real profit and that could easily take several more earnings cycles.
I believe that the ETFs you and I each referred to are heavily weighted with large and mid-cap Canuck stocks...it would be interesting if there was an ETF that was primarily made up of just the US-based operators. I imagine that chart would look much better but to my knowledge no such ETF exists.
IMO, the best a person can do if he insists on speculating in the marijuana sector is to pick a handful of US-based stocks and hopefully they will wind up with 2 or 3 nice winners among that group that more than make up for the others which will eventually prove to be big losers.
It's funny you sent me that chart because earlier today I was gonna send you a different MJ ETF that shows a similar pattern...
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/hmlsf
If you click on 3 months you will see it is pretty much doing the same thing.
Eventually the triangle will get small enough as it converges that price will either break out to the upside or break down to the downside. Anybody's guess at this point which way it will go.
As far as some of these Canuck stocks have dropped from their pre-crash highs they can still go a lot lower. Some folks simply refuse to believe that...most of them are too young to remember the dot-com boom/bust in the late 90s. Seems every generation has to learn the hard way!
What do you make of this?
Descending triangle, maybe?
https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_continuation
A bearish continuation pattern...I was afraid of this after the big mid-October crash.
Tough environment to make any money in right now. I may have to try some other sectors for a while...my timing just ain't good enough to do profitable swing trades when a pot stock only goes up a few % after going down 5-10%...LOL.
As Clint would say...
Wow, that sure didn't take very long...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aphria-investor-alert-faruqi-faruqi-203000130.html
Sure glad I don't meet that requirement. Meanwhile, it seems Altria may be moving on...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marlboro-maker-reportedly-eyeing-pot-producer-cronos-as-aphria-tumbles-on-short-sellers-attack-2018-12-03
Either that or just another BS rumor to pump and dump yet another pot stock.
You may very well be right, Big. It's just that right now I think many of the US-based MJ stocks offer a far greater potential reward than the Canadian ones do right now since the Canuck pot stocks seem to be almost priced for perfection. There are several US states that each alone dwarf the entire Canadian market and their market caps are far less stratospheric than the ones north of the border. Once these Canuck companies come up to full production the market is simply not big enough to support all that product...unless the Canadians stop playing so much hockey and at least double their pot smoking.
All of these marijuana stocks are risky to some extent or another but some are more so than others. If there is any shred of truth to today's story then there is even more risk for Aphria than I myself am comfortable with. IMO it just wasn't worth the gamble although others here obviously disagree which is perfectly fine because it is this difference in opinions that makes a market.
Cosine secant tangent sine - 3.14159. Which may just end up being Aphria's share price soon if this story is on the up and up. Best of luck whatever you decide.
Hey, GB...I can't respond to your PM because I'm not yet a paid subscriber.
Pretty crazy what's going on over on the Aphria board, huh? Some folks just get so damn defensive about their pet pot stocks. I agree with what you wrote...methinks Origin House is a far better bet than any of the Canadian MJ stocks right now, even after OH got hammered last week because their revenues only went up nine-fold...LOL.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/20/canadas-top-7-marijuana-growers-lost-nearly-300-mi.aspx
A lot of these poor folks don't seem to realize that these Canuck stocks are already priced to perfection...and many would say well beyond perfection. You could probably throw a dart at the US-based operators and do better than any of those will in the foreseeable future. But don't tell them that because they'll act like you just told them their wives are ugly or their dogs are stupid.
Hang in there, buddy...nobody ever said trading these MJ stocks was gonna be easy. But I sure wish AMD had waited a few days before skyrocketing...I was thinking of moving some pot money into other sectors and I was just looking at some of the chipmakers this weekend.
At least we got a nice little rebound in ORHOF going on right now. Easy come, easy go.
If you're really an engineer, then you should know exactly how research is done and how to write it up and prove it.
BTW, you are placing an awful lot of weight on just an oral interview. If you want a detailed written report I think this more than qualifies...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225817-aphria-shell-game-cannabis-business-side
It has already been posted before but it seems you missed it. There was enough detail in this to scare me off but your mileage may vary. I found no comfort in the company's formal response...they woulda said the exact same thing whether the story was true or not. I was a WorldCom shareholder when Ebbers ended up going to prison so I've already been there and done that. Best of luck.
As an engineer I know risk vs reward. There are far too many other pot stocks as well as stocks in other sectors that offer just as much if not more potential reward without such a dark cloud hanging over their heads.
All I know about this QCM is that they exposed a scam several months ago and when regulators investigated they found their claims had merit and several people associated with the company in question faced prosecutors and the company has never traded since and just filed for bankruptcy...so in my book that's a +1 for QCM and anything but a "hit job". You wanna gamble that QCM is "faking it" this time by all means have at it...it's your money and you're free to do whatever you want with it.
There sure seems to be a lot of people here who have fallen in love with this stock and have become perhaps a little too emotionally attached to it. If I got scared off by a BS story and lost a few bucks as a result so be it. For those of you who hung tough through this if your courage ends up rewarding you then more power to you. Just too risky for me...and it ain't exactly like Aphria was tearing it up before this story broke...as in down 50% off its mid-October highs.
QCM was probably accused of doing a "hit job" on Folli Follie back in May as well...
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/09/28/1538107205000/Folli-Follie---1bn-of-fake-sales--and-what-to-learn-from-the-debacle/
Except nobody from QCM ever faced any prosecution, which is more than can be said of Folli Follie's management...
http://www.ekathimerini.com/234103/article/ekathimerini/news/ten-implicated-in-folli-follie-scandal-called-by-prosecutors
FF just filed for bankruptcy 2 weeks ago...
https://www.todayonline.com/world/troubled-greek-jeweler-folli-follie-seeks-bankruptcy-protection
Excellent find on your part...I'm listening to the interview right now and it sure doesn't sound like a BS story to me. Sounds more like some shorts who really did their homework before going public with their findings.
This is another company that is implicated in the alleged Aphria scam...
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/solcf
I swing traded them back in early October when they were known as Scythian Biosciences and sold it for a small loss after a week when I started getting suspicious about their operation. This DeFrancesco character sounds like a bad dude and if he is as heavily involved with Aphria as the explosive story this morning indicates I am inclined to believe this is all closer to the truth than a BS story made up by unethical shorts.
Glad I'm out.
Best of luck to you...you have a lot more courage than I did on this one.
And a lot more than many others as well...almost 14 million shares sold barely an hour into trading.
Gotta start DDing computer chip and energy companies...these pot stocks are for the birds...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-of-canadas-largest-pot-producers-deny-mafia-ties-after-investigative-report-2018-11-02
Apparently jailbirds!
When it rains, it pours...
Aphria Inc. (TSX:APH) Gets a Failing Grade
https://www.fool.ca/2018/12/02/aphria-inc-tsxaph-gets-a-failing-grade/
Little Liberty getting dinged hard as well for being Aphria's baby sister...
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lhsif
Out of both as of a few minutes ago. Maybe we'll get a little compensation from the class-action lawsuit.
Think maybe it's time to stop swing trading these damn pot stocks and try the energy and computer chip sectors for a while. You know, companies that actually make a little real money!
A short seller who has a good rep for being right...
At the conference in May, Grego made a name for himself with his short of Folli Follie on the Athens Exchange. After exposing the company as a fraud, regulators halted the stock in less than two weeks and it hasn’t traded since.
How do you know it's a "hit piece"? The story looks pretty damn detailed to me, and the guy who wrote it has over 1000 followers on Seeking Alpha.
Even though we only have a very small position I still hope you're right, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
Hey, Vic..allow me to introduce you to your new cellmate...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Ebbers
I had a lot more shares of WorldCom when that news broke.
That was one of the first things I read about MedMen when I researched them way back when and is what scared me off them. Are they up to a billion shares yet??? LOL
Was hoping OH could close above $6 but I see it faded a little right before the close which I've noticed that it often seems to do. She fought like hell today and at one point was just a penny away from actually going green but there just too much headwind today.
IMO, the market overreacted a bit today especially earlier in the day but that overreaction is what brings opportunities for more level-headed investors. If OH put out this kind of earnings report a year or two from now that might be grounds for some concern and pessimism but at this early stage I think the revenue numbers are most important. Here's another video of one of Origin House's management team, president and general counsel of the company Afzal Hasan...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cannaroyalty-targets-vape-customers-with-180-smoke-takeover-1.1144749
Origin House's cash, assets, liabilities and debt were all up over 1000% compared to last year...that's clearly a sign of explosive growth. Either you have faith that management like Lustig & Hasan can successfully navigate treacherous waters or you don't...it's pretty much that simple. I think these guys are looking out far enough ahead to avoid any big icebergs.
15 minutes after my post it hits $5.99. Way to make me look bad, ORHOF.
I tend to agree. Before you can charge drivers a toll you gotta make the toll road first. Takes money to build an infrastructure.
Let's see if she can claw her way back to maybe around $6 today.
Look at the bright side, John...at least we won't have to agonize over when to take profits today! So we got that going for us.
https://walletinvestor.com/stock-forecast/orhof-stock-prediction
So much for their predicted price chart on the right side...LOL.
Little flip-floppin' going on today...Canuck MJ stocks up and Yankee pot stocks down.
Origin House Announces Sequential Revenue Growth of 89% for the Third Quarter 2018
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/origin-house-announces-sequential-revenue-growth-of-89-for-the-third-quarter-2018-701418941.html
Record Q3 revenue of $6.6 million; growth of 89% over Q2 2018 and 790% over Q3 2017.
Marc Lustig, CEO of Origin House, commented, "Last quarter, we stated that after a substantial period of building a foundation, Origin House was at the beginning of a multi-period, sustainable acceleration in revenue growth. Year-to-date, we generated record revenue, completed four transformational acquisitions and are well-capitalized to continue growing. We expect to continue delivering strong revenue growth throughout Q4, 2019 and beyond, as RVR and 180 Smoke are integrated and as we further leverage our brand development and support platform. Our view is that the next 12 months are going to be critical in determining the winners in the cannabis space. Origin House is positioned as a premier operator in the largest and most dynamic cannabis market in the world and we believe we are just at the beginning of our growth curve. We expect this platform to become increasingly difficult to replicate and therefore increasingly valuable for our shareholders as our financial results accelerate, as well as for other operators in the cannabis space that need to be in California."
https://originhouse.com/origin-house-announces-sequential-revenue-growth-of-89-for-the-third-quarter-2018/
I seriously doubt a sharp CEO like Lustig would get himself caught off-guard by these new proposed changes. Origin House was way ahead of the game in regards to newer testing requirements that caught other California producers holding a lot of inferior product that they then had to dump before it went into effect on July 1.
For example, OH recently partnered with Henry's Original...
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/origin-house-partners-with-mendocino-cannabis-brand-henrys-original-to-offer-strategic-investment-and-innovative-brand-acceleration-2018-11-22
And if you research this new partner it sure looks to me like OH's newest supplier has already jumped through all the legal hoops to preclude any future problems...
http://marijuanaretailreport.com/jamie-warm-ceo-of-henrys-original-and-co-founder-of-artifact-nursery-talks-craft-cannabis/
If anything a revision to California's marijuana laws may actually help Origin House a lot by restricting a flood of competitors to the state who don't do their homework and adequately prepare themselves.
No telling what will happen tomorrow with earnings but whenever you plop down a few bucks on any stock you are basically betting that the CEO and his/her management team know what the hell they are doing and so far it sure seems to me that these guys are on top of things.
Here's a little more on Henry's...
https://henrysoriginal.com/
At least CEO Vic has been putting some product on the shelves if not value into his stock...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224444-cannabis-shelf-space-market-share-winning-battle-shelf-space
I also now know why he named the company what he did...
Vic: "Iffa you buya my stock Aphria you of all your money!"
I don't think Canadian companies are legally allowed to just swoop in and buy up American ones. In fact, Aphria had to divest itself of Liberty Health in order to satisfy legal requirements imposed by the two countries.
Canadian marijuana workers and investors aren't even allowed to visit the US for crying out loud...
https://www.newsweek.com/legal-canadian-marijuana-workers-face-lifetime-us-ban-1120694
This country really needs to get its act straightened out on the federal level. We're tear-gassing little kids on the southern border and arresting investors on the northern one. FUBAR.
Canadian Cannabis producers must find Countries to sell their excess Marijuana to.
Yeah, I think the CEOs of the Canadian LPs know this even if their overexuberant investors haven't yet figured it out...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-cannabis-giants-eye-south-america-as-next-big-market-1.1104182
My first swing trade of Aphria back in mid-October went great but on this second go-around I'm getting my butt kicked bigtime. Sometimes you catch a falling knife by the handle and other times you get cut real bad. So far this is by far the worst trade I've made yet...the Canadian stocks just keep grinding ever downward...down 16% in less than 2 weeks and this was already after they had dropped a lot more than that before I finally jumped in. Fortunately it's just a very small position so we're not talking very much lost $$$.
Oh, well...as long as some of the big money that's being pulled out of the Canadian pot stocks ends up in a few of my American ones I won't mind too much!
I've only swing traded just 1 of those half dozen stocks you mentioned although I'm fairly familiar with several more. Was pretty high on HEXO until what you told me about their dilution the other day...that don't sound too good so maybe I won't try them again any time soon. Plus I'm pretty much bearish on most Canadian LPs at this point. Trulieve looks like a potential behemoth in Florida and Curaleaf has an aggressive-looking national map with quite a few states filled in.
If those CBD drops are for a medical condition I hope they help you. Recently found out that my sister back in Pittsburgh has been suffering from fibromyalgia for quite some time...nobody in the family really knew how bad it was. She let us all know that they finally found some medication that seems to be helping but I told her if it fizzles out to think about trying cannabis as a last resort. Fortunately Pennsylvania recently passed medical MJ so it's a legal option for her if need be.
Here's that video from a couple months ago I referenced where the analyst said you would basically need "another Canada" to justify some of the valuations of the Canuck stocks...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pot-stock-volatility-won-t-ease-anytime-soon-bmo-banker-says-1.1157625
If you can't trust an engineer who can you trust???
Wonder what's gonna happen to all that excess weed that will be overflowing Canadian warehouses in the not-too-distant future?
I don't really know the details of how all that is regulated...was just commenting how Lustig & Gang have apparently put a lot of thought into branding whereas the Canadian LPs seem to be approaching their marketing in a helter-skelter fashion. Origin House seems to have a unique business model that hopefully will pay off in a big way over time...I'm not sure even the US-based operators are doing what OH is.
Today was a real good example of what may be happening moneywise...many of the Canadian pot stocks I keep tabs on were all down maybe roughly 3-9% while the US stocks I happen to monitor were all up several %. Looks to me like some big money is leaving the Great White North and heading south. Since the American-based companies typically have market caps that are an order of magnitude below that of the Canuck ones it wouldn't take much influx to make the Yankee stocks pop real good and/or appreciate nicely over a longer period of time.
I imagine many of the US-based companies will turn out to be big losers so it will still be important to select the right ones to put your money down on, but the Canadian companies are likely so overvalued right now even the current winners may turn out to be losers! One analyst I watched a while back said they would need TWO Canadas in order to get rid of all the product that will likely be available in a couple years.
We officially have a winner in November's Dumb Question of the Month Contest...
Better Marijuana Stock: Tilray vs. Origin House
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/04/better-marijuana-stock-tilray-vs-origin-house.aspx
Speights is a very good pot stock analyst but musta had a lot of free time on his hands when he came up with this article.
If not mistaken I believe that in order to sell pot in a state it must be grown in that state. That stems from the fact that MJ is still illegal on a federal level so it is against the law for companies to transport it across state lines.
I get the impression from rewatching those videos I linked to that CEO Lustig also thinks the Canadian companies might be able to use some of Origin House's growing expertise at branding...so I would not be terribly surprised at all if OH started getting more involved up north helping some of them with their branding. So far since legalization it's pretty much been a real clusterCanuck up there...mass shortages of product, tax stamps with no glue on the back of them, a rolling postal worker strike that is impacting order deliveries through the mail, etc.
Canada does many things a lot better than the United States does but selling drugs may not be one of them...LOL.
Origin House is quite possibly my favorite of all the pot stocks I've researched over the last few months. It won't be a rocket shot straight to the moon by any means and there will almost certainly be some nasty downtrends along the way but if I had to bet on just one stock ORHOF would likely be it.
Too bad Gillum lost the governorship race in Florida because he was for recreational MJ as well but Florida is another potentially huge market...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224319-state-cannabis-will-dominate-floridas-cannabis-market
Cooper is a pretty savvy author over at Seeking Alpha and I'm really surprised he didn't mention iAnthus/MPX (as one of his readers commented) but there are probably a few good plays in that state as well. Just because Lustig is gonna make you a small fortune in California doesn't mean you can't make another small one in another state, right?
Canada has all the bloated companies with the big market caps but the US has the big market, period. Seems like a no-brainer to me where one's pot speculation money should be mainly going at this stage. The American operators are still very risky but probably considerably less risk with much higher potential upside than the overvalued companies north of the border.
Generally speaking the last 1-3 months has been a helluva lot better for the US-based pot stocks than the Canadian ones...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224542-weekly-cannabis-report-u-s-earnings-season-ramps
YTD as well, for that matter. Keep that big money sector rotation coming, boys.
Welcome aboard and good luck. I tend to swing trade these pot stocks more than buy & hold for the long-term but I don't think I'll be out of Origin House very long whenever I do sell. Was only out for less than a week after we sold the day a lot of MJ stocks popped when Sessions got fired.
Another video of the CEO from I believe back in August who hopefully is gonna make you a decent chunk of change...
https://www.youtube.com/embed/FOK9EvC7a0A
Think I'm pretty much through with the Canuck companies and will mostly stick with swinging the US-based ones...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/10/28/meet-the-new-marijuana-stock-thats-trouncing-auror.aspx
Except for maybe OrganiGram which so far has been like withdrawing cash from an ATM machine.
Meet Marc...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/marijuana/video/cannaroyalty-becomes-origin-house~1520173
Sharp dude.
Okay, then...muchas gracias, Juan. Maybe this bit of good news combined with a solid earnings report come mid-week will give this stock a nice little boost it's been needing. The way I see it ORHOF could easily go up or down by at least a buck a share depending on how it goes and I'd much rather watch it head north than south.
Dow futures ain't looking too good at the moment, however, although the NASDAQ isn't too bad...
https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
I'm trying to figure out if this warrant stuff may cause upward or downward near-term pressure on ORHOF's stock price or have little impact at all...
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/working-papers/stock-price-management-share-issuance-evidence-equity-warrants
All gobbledygook to me...good thing I chose engineering over business. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the DJIA...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DJI/6slJniZF-DJI-DOW-JONES-DOUBLE-TOPS-ADAM-ADAM/
I've been watching this since the lows in April and it sure looks like a potential classic double-top to me. If the Dow can't hold ~23350 then look out below. Last week wiped out all of 2018's gains and we may soon be working on eliminating much of 2017's as well.
Thanks for the kind words, Et...I enjoy reading your posts as well.
There are tons of very good articles about swing trading out there for you to peruse and consider. Here's just a couple to get you going and they have lots of good links to follow up on...
https://www.investors.com/ibd-university/swing-trading/
https://www.investors.com/ibd-university/how-to-sell/taking-profits/
So far it's been a lot of fun and very challenging. I enjoy it a lot because it's not nearly as stressful as I imagine daytrading is but not nearly as boring as buying & holding so it seems to be a great compromise between the two, at least for me.
If you can manage to get 10-20% on the majority of your trades and can avoid too many big losers then you'll never go broke...unless your wife or girlfriend is embezzling money from your investment account.
Root for AAPL to stabilize.
Okie dokie, John...if you say so. But if my pulling for Origin House to go up doesn't work I doubt my rooting for Apple to stabilize will do any good...LOL.
I'm seeing some interesting bullish chart patterns for a lot of these pot stocks...ascending triangles, falling wedges, etc. I am actually somewhat optimistic about some of these MJ equities in the near term (next week or two) if the broader markets don't collapse.
Big week for ORHOF with earnings on Wednesday...
https://www.ftmig.com/cannabis/origin-house-announces-release-date-of-third-quarter-2018-financial-results/
Of course, whenever hard news comes out about a company (like an earnings report, for example) then fundamentals always trumps technical analysis no matter how good or bad the charts look.
FAANG's for the memories...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apples-stock-tumble-makes-it-unanimous-the-faang-bull-market-has-ended-2018-11-20
Officially now a bear market for those 5 at least...and that ain't no bull.
Never was an Apple fanboy myself.
https://www.cnbc.com/dow-30/
Sweep!