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Video done by the Minister during his visit to Touchstone. He posted it on his Facebook page. Link below:
https://www.facebook.com/796866243709039/posts/4298262726902689/
He was at the Coho site, but said things "really start to flow in 12 to 16 months time"......which hopefully will be both Royston and Cascadura being online.....and real big flows of gas.......
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The Cruse at Chinook-1 is flaring now. All the photos are on the official Ministry media release (PDF in the link below).
So for sure the Cruse at Chinook is currently flowing and flaring.......
https://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Media-Release-Minister-Young-Conducts-Ortoire-Block-Seismic-Survey-With-Touchstone-Exploration-Inc-Revised-1.pdf
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Finncap July update on TXP.
They expect Coho on production around end of Q3 (so lets say October then) and Cascadura on line in Q2 2022.
PDF file in the link below.
https://gofile.io/d/3S291N
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Reddit TXP thread now up and running.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TouchstoneTXP/
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Late reported 113,500 buy at 87.5p on AIM. That caused the rise. Most likely a small fry shorter trying to close.
Given the big short position has not changed - so whoever laid this on is currently not closing and not increasing, looks like a speculative shorting raid (by some small fry) occurred to push the price down from 97p levels to 80p levels.
They probably are getting a bit nervous of potential news from the Cruse sometime next week and started to close their short yesterday.
However, I would estimate they short sold at least 500K of TXP to push it down - so they likely still have to buy another 350K to 400K of TXP to close the position.
So we might see some tree shakes Monday as the small fry try to fill their buy orders and close the small shorts ahead of news.
The big 9 million share short remains in place - that one is still to start to be closed...............
The comments on CREST and loaning of stock refers to London TXP shares.
June 2021 figures now out.
TXP Stock on Loan (Shorts) from Euroclear
Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14%
Apr 2021____8.65%
May 2021____8.79%
Jun 2021____8.74%
So still roughly the same level.
I should make it clear as I was mistaken by this, it is actually the Stock On Loan from CREST. So all your nominee accounts, how much is being loaned out from CREST.
In the case of TXP - there was average 103M stock held in CREST in June 2021 and 8.74% on average was loaned out.
So that means the short position is around 9M shares.
So everyone, YOUR SHARES, held in CREST by your broker, may well be being loaned out (at a fee) to the shorter !!!!!
Yes, you are paying them to hold your shares and they are then loaning them out to shorters for a nice fee.
YOU SHOULD -
Contact your broker and ask them for a yes/no answer whether they loan out shares that are held on CREST.
If they say no and put it in writing, fair enough.
If they do not answer, or pint to the small print of your terms and conditions, or say yes.......... MOVE YOUR SHARES TO ANOTHER BROKER !!!!!!!!
So the Minister is expecting :
Coho on line before end of September.
Cascadura on line before year end.
Chinook Cruse (testing) on line before year end.
Opening address by Energy Minister Stuart Young at the (SPETT) International Energy Resources Conference and Exhibition 28th June 2021
https://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Ministers-Speech-SPETT-Keynote-Address.pdf
Main TXP related extract below:
"The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on both oil and gas production.
Whereas oil production has rebounded to the 2019 level, gas production is taking a
little longer to regain the momentum that was dampened by plant turnarounds,
reduced demand due to low petrochemical prices and operational issues including
infrastructure work to bring on new production. The issues that impacted on gas
production in 2020 and so far in 2021 have been largely addressed or mitigated."
"Over the next 18 months, new gas production is projected to come onstream from
all of the upstream operators. BHP’s Ruby project is already on stream and
Touchstone’s Coho field is due to come onstream in the third quarter 2021.
Touchstone’s Cascadura and Chinook field are expected to come on line in the
fourth quarter 2021."
News out on the SW oil licenses. And also first confirmation of the deep potential at Coora.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TXP/execution-of-10-year-lease-operatorship-agreements/15026769
News flow commences, hopefully a load more updates in the coming weeks on Coho and Casca and Royston and more.
Coho news soon ?
https://energynow.tt/blog/minister-young-focus-on-bringing-oil-and-gasnbspresources-to-market-at-the-earliest-opportunitynbsp
........Later in the conference, Touchstone CEO, Paul Baay provided confirmation of Minister Young’s approach, when he thanked him for clearing some of the barriers that were holding back the small, but fast-to-deliver, onshore Coho gas field..........
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Will be interesting to see if the distressed seller appears again in London today. Lots of chunks been sold below the bid price this week, as today is the 3rd Friday in June and this week has been rollover week for the margin positions.
Obviously someone forced into selling their long position has been dumping out at whatever price they can get this week which collapses the price down and which has the knock on effect of panic selling by others. When the company already has a short positon of nearly 10% of its stock, the aligning of all these events creates exteme volatility and of course, potentially, opportunity.
As now its that 3rd Friday in June I have waited for today and will have a Top Up today, maybe another on Monday.
Enjoy the weekend all !
Maybe some unexpected news ahead - nothing too exciting just perhaps a change of plan.
With oil prices so high, it might be that they use a rig and start their drilling in the South West oil fields early, dont wait for the new rig to arrive, start drilling them now if a rig is available.
If each well comes in at 200bopd and only costs 1 million each then.......
Each well pays for itself in less than 6 months at current oil prices, then its pure profit. The 2000bopd allowance on SPT is not being utilized fully at the moment, so I do wonder if they might fast track a couple of wells in the South West if a small rig is available to use on the island. If they get better than 200bopd the payback is very much quicker obviously.
With winter ahead and the potential for oil prices to spike as demand rises - it might be a good plan to get those additional oil wells drilled quicker.
Get a couple of wells done now and then leave a couple of wells for the new big rig in October/November once its arrived and up and running.
We shall see.
Interesting that Trinidad will finally be offering new licensing rounds for oil and gas deep/shallow and onshore.
Wonder if Mr Moonan's scouting missions for the past many months and ongoing will yield TXP putting in for some new license areas when the process is opening.
Quite possibly they might be bidding for quite a few, given the wall of cash coming in as 2022 progresses and too much money to spend on what they have so far.......some new exploration acreage would certainly be interesting.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2223239-trinidad-aims-for-precovid-gas-levels-by-2022
..........The government will encourage further development over the next 12 months with licensing rounds for deepwater, shallow-water and onshore acreage, he said..........
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Thanks to domus for some info.
Seems the NGC pipeline to connect Cascadura does not need an EIA.....its only the liquids line from Cascadura down that needs the EIA approvel.
So hopefully the NGC can start laying the Cascadura pipeline in once the State of Emergency is over, hopefully in early July.
Makes it more likely see production around year end if thats the case.
I do believe in the first instance liquids from Cascadura will be trucked, with the pipeline being in place later on in 2022.
This is quicker and also more cost effective, no up front cost to TXP laying in a liquids pipeline until they are flush with cash later in 2022....better just to truck it from site to start with, yes it means less profit per barrel for the liquids but saves a massive amount of money on the liquids pipeline - which is of course TXP cost as the NGC only pays for the gas pipelines.
https://touchstoneexploration.com/investors/2021-shareholder-meeting/
TXP AGM : Wednesday, June 9, 2021 at 10:00 a.m. (Mountain time)
Virtual-only Meeting via live audio webcast at https://web.lumiagm.com/250272848
How to register to attend in the link below (PDF).
https://www.touchstoneexploration.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/TXP-2021-Virtual-Meeting-Guide.pdf
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Article on the need for more and more exploration in T&T. Highlights how important Cascadura and Royston (if Royyton hits gas) are going to be short term and how, once Covid is no longer causing delays - we should see much faster progress getting things on line.
I think this is already being addressed by the "one approval for all of Cascadura" approach......so that once approved they can go ahead with all the infill drilling they want and its all pre-approved. Same process would apply to Royston then if Royston hits gas.
Fast progress might sound weird given all the current delays due to Covid, State of Emergency, permitting approvals as nobody done permitting for new gas onshore for decades etc....... but all of those will be going away in the months ahead and finally progress should become much faster - basically its in the governments and NGC interest to do so.....TXP will be just riding on their backs then and it will be the NGC chasing up TXP to get a move on.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/boosting-investments-in-deepwater-exploration-offshore-trinidad-and-tobago-could-reverse-negative-production-trend-after-2024-says-globaldata/
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Provided Paul Baay sticks to his guns.....refuses to accept offers of "cash for shares" in a Private Placing and uses the debt facility to fund developments until Coho and Casca are on line........whoever has that 8% short position is going to get murdered trying to close it.....all being well :)
Really big shorts still to close out here........ any short squeeze of this size will see a massive spike.
June figures will be out soon.
TXP Stock on Loan from Euroclear
Jan 2021____0.52%
Feb 2021____1.23%
Mar 2021____7.14% Shorts come on on bad news
Apr 2021____8.65% Price suppression
May 2021____8.79% Price suppression
Jun 2021 Figures coming soon, I am expecting a further increase in shorts level.
New Covid cases in Trinidad seem to have peaked and should start to fall now in the weeks ahead, and with the vaccination well underway hopefully the plan to lift the State of Emergency and Covid restrictions will happen on the 4th of July.
Things can then start to return to normal and delays will hopefully become shorter from then on.
Write up from ValueTheMarkets on TXP. PDF file in the link below :
https://assets.valuethemarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/touchstone-report-02-v5.pdf
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Director share purchase.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TXP/director-share-purchase/14993601
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Video of the 25th May 2021 (yesterday) Webinar.
Trinidad SOE (State of Emergency) extended for 90 days. However the PM has said this does not mean lockdown for 90 days, they may end lockdown in 4 weeks or 6 weeks.....it just means they have the legal SOE powers for 90 more days.
Target is to lift lockdown on July 4th - all being well with the vaccination program and falling Covid infection rates.
So expect more delays for TXP - nothing anyone can do - its Covid.
https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/pm-extends-restrictions-until-july-4/article_21a6b1d2-bb60-11eb-9bca-5f006e0ba74b.html
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A very good write up on TXP :
https://newsday.co.tt/2021/05/20/touchstone-exploration-an-onshore-success-story/
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Quick link below to the March 31st MD&A document, which goes into more detail of the Q1 results.
https://gofile.io/d/T8vZmc
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https://www.shareprophets.com/views/55716/touchstone-exploration-q1-results-upcoming-potential-catalysts-buy
Touchstone Exploration – Q1 results, upcoming potential catalysts: BUY
By HotStockRockets | Saturday 15 May 2021
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Oil and gas company in Trinidad and Tobago Touchstone Exploration (TXP) has announced that, despite a focus on its Ortoire block exploration program, in the first quarter of 2021 it “generated funds flow from operations of $538,000” and “believe that available credit facility capacity combined with anticipated funds flow from operations will be sufficient to satisfy… 2021 minimum exploration work commitments”. That so.......
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With regards to the spud of Royston, hopefully in the first couple of weeks of June.
The ongoing snap 3 week Covid lockdown in Trinidad ends on 23rd May and so progress can once again continue, provided the lockdown is not extended. (Announced on 3rd May for 3 week period)
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trinidad-tobago-tightens-lockdown-covid-19-cases-surge-2021-05-03/
The legacy oil production is not effected as deemed essential, but everything at Ortoire is "non essential" as its not ongoing production, and so is subject to lockdown rules.
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finnCao are using a figure of 430 BCF GIP (Gas in Place) for the Royston-1 well, which if it comes in they give 60 pence per share value.
However, there is significant upside potentially.
Royston-1 has the potential to be up to 2 TCF of GIP, and using the same metric that would be around 280 pence a share upside if it comes in.
The simple fact is, only the Herrera 7A were drilled with the old OL4 well, and this has circa 750 feet of gas shows.
OL4 did not drill into the Herrera 7bc and did not drill into the sub thrust. So whatever is or is not in the 7bc and the sub-thrust is currently not in any forecast for the Royston-1 well.
Only the upper 7a is included in the current forecasts for potential of the coming Royston-1 well.
The unrisked GIP for Royston-1 Herrera 7a is 960 BCF with the risked GIP at 240 BCF.
finnCap are using the mid case figure of 430 BCF GIP in their figures.
However, the 7bc and subthrust offer substantial upside if they are gas bearing and the 7a is as well, which is why potentially there may be 2 TCF of GIP if the 7a and the 7bc both come in with gas.
All in all, it is a massive well in terms of upside and currently what is potential in or not in the 7bc and the sub thrust are completely ignored in the current finnCap forecasts.
finnCap 14th May 2021 update for TXP :
PDF file in the link below
https://gofile.io/d/TXQ6zQ
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CANA maintained their 150p target price and Buy rating on TXP following the Q1 results.
https://www.smarteranalyst.com/new-blurbs/analysts-offer-insights-on-utilities-companies-national-fuel-gas-company-nfg-touchstone-exploration-otherpbegf-and-crescent-point-energy-cpg/
Touchstone Exploration (PBEGF)
Canaccord Genuity analyst Charlie Sharp maintained a Buy rating on Touchstone Exploration today and set a price target of p150.00.
Q1 results.
Results out for Q1.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/touchstone-explrtn.--txp-/rns/first-quarter-2021-results/202105130703545139Y/
Revenue goes up by 500K a month once Coho online and revenue jumps massively end of year with Cascadura online and 4 new oil Wells.
Looking very well placed and of course fully funded to the wall of cash coming online.
They tell people again.......the sheet tested at Casca-Deep is a new sheet and was not included in the reserves report for Casca-1. The new sheet at Casca-Deep will give a nice big rise to reserves when the news is released.
Current reserves are valued at 140 pence per share.........and when the Casca-Deep reserves are added, this will push the valuation and the share price up again.
All looking good. And Rosyton to spud within a month.
The Cascadura-Deep pressure recorders should be pulled up this weekend. A week to crunch the data and hopefully some news ahead of the Webinar on the 25th of May.
We might this time get an Operations Update RNS on the 25th morning, so Paul is free to talk about the news in the Webinar later that day. Would be nice if the data suggests a decent sized reserves increase.
For anyone who has not registered to watch the Webinar.
Link to register page for the 25th May presentation is below :
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/9115997398446/WN_4mo_Tp8iTNyczo4hxQ_QcQ
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I did like the Q&A.
The road ahead is why I have TXP as one of my big picks.
TXP is fully funded.
TXP has ongoing oil production (making good profits at over 50$ oil price).
TXP has gas production coming on stream 2021.
TXP will have a "wall of cash" coming in in 2022, culminating in a dividend payment commencing all being well.
TXP has 21 prospects to drill on the Ortoire license, all offering good upside on success.
TXP has the Royston prospect to spud in the next 4 weeks or so, which in the success case would be bigger than everything they have so far. 1TCF recoverable ? 2 TCF recoverable ? who knows......
TXP has over 200 drilling locations in the West, to increase oil production there.
TXP has a one "once in a lifetime' drill prospect in Kraken, due to be drilled Q4 2022.
Basically, I have been and I continue to buy for the Kraken drill in Q4 2022. Yes its 16 months away, but in 16 months time it will likely be one of the biggest drills worldwide - and if they have a Liza sized Guyana discovery onshore Trinidad....imagine that.
And you can buy now, safe in the knowledge the company is fully funded, is generating cash, will commence a dividend next year all being well and has proven verified reserves worth in excess of the current share price with a long term fixed price deal for gas prices. Its pretty much "risk free" lottery tickets that offer a chance of the dream prize in 16 months time, but if not, you still might get your 10 pound consolation prize for 3 numbers for a 1 pound ticket.
I like it and if thats ramping, its a pretty darn good ramp backed up with hard facts.
Big short position in Europe.
Euroclear's latest Stock on Loan(short) Report published today:
8.65% - Touchstone Exp / (up from 7.14%)
So short positions in TXP in Europe are "signifcantly high".
One assumes the shorts were basing their position on Coho being late and so TXP need more cash for their exploration wells.
Obviously Paul has now thrown a spanner in those works, as Coho is delayed yes, but they have re-worked the plans going forward and will now go "all development" and exploration pushed into 2022.
So now I see a mega spike ahead all being well. Shorts will want to close (or significantly reduce) before Royston results late July. They will not be happy with the current high oil prices (meaning TXP oil production is making good money) and the moved around plan for the coming 6 months which mean that Coho being late will not mean any need for any placings.
Looks like the shorts made an error of judgement and now find themselves staring at some issues closing their positions.
No doubt they will be using their "mates" to talk to TXP about they are willing to invest in the company and why not do another placing at say around 120p a share and take all that extra money and speed things up.............all of this of course so they can close those big short positions with no pain.
Hopefully Paul tells them to FO.......
New video out. Additional Questions and Answers from the recent Webinar
Start of a new uptrend seems to be in place, with UK, US and Canada price of TXP all rising now.
Decent rise yesterday, the corner seems to have been turned. Might see the technical chart traders coming back in if an uptrend is established as we move forward to the big Rosyton-1 well spudding later this month.
I take Gaubine as being oil, as it makes sense for it suddenly to appear post Chinook.
As Paul said, oil discovery at Chinook now "opens up" a new development to TXP, with oil as well as gas from Ortoire.
The Cascadura liquid pipeline goes down through Chinook and through Gaubine to the Heritage Oil Pipeline.
Therefore this is the "oil development" that TXP will be working on, with Cascadura liquids, Chinook oil and Gaubine oil going that route.
Any Chinook gas (like the Karamat formation to be tested later at Chinook-1) may be tied into the Gas Pipeline that Cascadura gas will go into.
I would see the oil and gas development planning to be as below:
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