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Take-two
You are clear for take-off....Roger that Houston."
-Since the 10/29 low we have had 4 higher lows.
-The daily on-balance volume indicator is breaking out to the upside.
-The Daily RSI indicator in now above a reading of 50.
-Today is the 7th day out of 9 we are up against the 50 EMA. With this many attempts the 50 EMA dam has a high chance of giving way.
-AVCO has excellent share structure.
-AVCO has a war chest of reserve money -17mil- from their chairman that they can use if needed.
-AVCO's has a lineup of outstanding medical tech.
-AVCO has a super experienced, intelligent CEO
-AVCO has outstanding business relationships who have thoroughly vetted AVCO's management and technology...ie, GE Health, MIT to name just a few.
Not a matter of IF...just a matter of WHEN Avalon Globocare will take off...my bet is sooner rather than later IMHO.
" $AVCO you are clear for take-off....Roger that Houston."
I may be jumping the gun here but if we can close today above 1.24, which is the current 50 day EMA, AVCO should be in good shape! Also if we stay up today this will be the second day in a row that we have had a gap between the previous day's close and the low of the current day.
Also my strong feeling is last Monday's 11/09 gap between the low of that day and the previous Friday's close will remain open forever ... ie a breakaway gap. Almost all stocks at the beginning of a very large move up start with a breakaway gap.
All good Vipyr...you did what you had to do by leaving the group. Not a good fit for you anymore.
There is one interesting dynamic that could possibly play out with Dr. Tran and AVCO. He has been bullish publicly writing about AVCO since June 25th, 2019 and for the most part AVCO has trended down to sideways since then. I know as of August 19th, 2020 (the day AVCO started its most recent leg down) he was still very bullish on AVCO http://www.drtranbiosci.com/ but now he says he does NOT endorse AVCO....right? What happens if AVCO does what he originally said it would do...go up in a big way...over the next year or two? He will have had the "fun" of recommending the stock to Seeking Alpha subscribers when going down and then jumping ship just before it starts to move up big time. We will see how it plays out but that is not a situation I would want to be in if I had paid subscribers following me.
I do have a lot of respect for Dr. Tran. His skill of deep diving into biotech companies is excellent. The guy really knows his stuff. This may be a case where emotions/ego got in the way of his critical thinking. Then again us passionate investors in AVCO could be totally wrong. I've learned in trading/investing to be humble. We'll know who was right and who was wrong soon enough...
Thanks for Sharing Vipyr...Dr Tran is not how I discovered AVCO but he certainly helped me realize there is great potential in this little company. He knows his medicine, is a smart guy and I appreciate his expertise. He also is a proud man and obviously there was some kind of a falling out between him and AVCO management...but like you said all the good things he wrote about AVCO did not suddenly evaporate. Also...not sure where he gets the "when the stock rallied from $1 to $2, I told you to GET OUT" It has not seen a dollar since back in March and he liked the stock late into the summer. He has liked this stock a long time and certainly when it was much higher than $2.00
No matter...all good. Nice week for AVCO. We formed a potential Monday breakaway gap. We also have a gap up today. Things will start to get serious when we close above the 50 EMA at 1.24.
Enjoy the weekend!
Go AVCO!!
AVCO has formed a ledge at 1.22. (The last 4 days in a row, including this morning, we have gone up and touched 1.22 and come back down.) One thing this stock likes todo is take out ledges - flat areas.
I'm gonna bet most traders are gonna bail at $2.00 when it gets there for a nice little profit and that's all good. This little company however if it does not get bought out by big pharma first, has all the right ingredients to turn into a big pharma company: great share structure, excellent management, little debt and plenty of cash reserves, cutting edge biological technology, great facilities, highly respected business partners and a red hot market.
Not a matter of IF just a matter of WHEN this stock starts to launch. We will know for certain when we close above the 50 day EMA currently at 1.24.
I don't think you are missing a thing my friend. Revenue is growing...either by the end of the 4th quarter or certainly by the end of the 1st quarter of next year AVCO's earnings should be in the black driven by the sale of Covid tests. So much more in the pipeline besides the Covid tests however. AVCO is just getting going...
Earnings off by $-.04 a share. But assets up and liabilities down and 20 million in cash reserves if needed from our wealthy chairman of the board.
AVCO about to make its next move up IMHO! Assuming we stay up today this will be 4 straight days above the 20 day EMA. The next BIG hurdle is the 50 day EMA at around 1.24. We close above that and we will be starting our move in earnest.
Okay...nice gap between Friday's close at 1.14 and today's open at 1.16. If that remains open we will have a Monday morning possible breakaway gap!!
Notice also we keep hitting 1.20 and bouncing back down. We ARE going to break thru...probably soon!
Hold those share!!
All good signs! With the one day exception of 9/29 this is the first time we have been above the 20 day EMA since Aug 20th!! Let's see how we roll today. The next big test if we continue on up is the 50 day EMA which is right now at 1.26. Like what I am seeing on the charts.
Yes will be interesting to see what earnings if any come out of working with ADIL in this next earnings report.
Knock knock knocking on the 20 EMA's door....
We didn't break thru the 20 EMA today but I like what I am seeing on the chart. RSI moving higher along with the On Balance Volume.
Management, share structure and medical technology are rock solid with AVCO. Hold those shares!! Not a matter of IF, just a matter of WHEN this is gonna take off...
If we can break up thru the 20 day EMA and close at 1.18 or higher we may have something going here!!
Go AVCO!!
As long as we hold around here we should be just fine. After a key reversal, like we got yesterday, it's very common for price to have a 50% retracement before the next move up. Expecting good things to come!
Yes sir...we filled the gap "FINALLY" at 1.08 clearing the way to reverse and move higher. Amazing how that happens lol.
Will we really move higher now?...at a minimum we need to see price close up above 1.18...which is the 20 day EMA. AVCO has sooooo much going for it. Not a matter of IF...just a matter of WHEN.
That support was meant to be broken...it had to break in order for price to go higher. We had a flat bottom with lower highs - descending triangle. The question now is will the 1.08 gap reject price and we get the turn around we have hoped for or do we continue to slide down a slippery slope?
I had brief correspondence with AVCO investor relations this morning. They have not set a date yet for earnings but they must have the 3rd quarter results out no later than Nov 16th. We should see if they have started to bring in revenue with Cellex that AVCO announced on Aug 19th to help in selling Covid diagnostic tests. Hopefully also we get some updates with a PR.
Things are going to start to happen with this stock soon. They have the brains, medical technology, relationships and money. The question is do we have the patience/discipline to wait this out. It absolutely sucks watching it go down but I feel strongly it will pay off.
Great Post Vipyr...thanks per usual for keeping me/us in the loop as to what you are hearing out there!
Yes...so hard to put an actual time and price target on AVCO. ANYTHING could happen but I am in for the super long term. Again my minimum price target is $13.5 since that is the old all time high and we should easily get there but expect price to go much much higher.
We should be getting 3rd quarter earnings out 2nd week in November. Remember we started distributing Covid tests with Cellex toward the end of August and will be interesting to see if anything has happened with that relationship.
Notice today we broke down through 1.12 today and bounced. Tiny volume so perhaps we fill that elusive 1.08 gap I keep talking about first before going up for real. We should know tomorrow...
We need to see price spike down through 1.12 in order to allow AVCO to go higher. The 1.12 price level has had 7 tests on it including today since Sept 28th. Ideally we need to see price spike or gap down through it to 1.11 or lower and then quickly rebound and head higher. This is exactly what happened on 9/24 and you can see from the chart AVCO rocketed up only a few day later. Hopefully this time it goes up and never looks back!
Interesting morning we got going here. Potential for a nice hook reversal. If we can just close above 1.20 today that could set us up for a nice run for next week.
Well it was Dr. Tran in his articles last year that mentioned a "$20M non-convertible line of credit" given by the chairman of the board Daniel Lu. I confirmed from the company the other day it's now around a 17M line of credit.
It may be true they just have 1.25 million in cash on the books but they do have the huge line of credit.
Too many positive things going for them to hold AVCO down forever. One of these days the shorts will get their shirts handed to them when AVCO rallies like it did today and then hesitates but then accelerates up instead of coming back down like it usually does. It's going to happen.
One correction I want to make... it said in the IBI notes you posted "Separately, it should be noted that the company declared to have $ 1.25M in cash as of June 30, 2020." I know from the horses mouth that they have over 17 million in cash reserves at this moment. Plenty to get them where they need to go especially in light of the revenue they will be getting from the sale of these rapid tests they announced today (they will make 50% of the profit from each sale).
Excellent post Vipyr....thank you so much for sharing!!!
Yep...as much as it pains me to say it the gap just got filled at 1.18. If we close near the lows today than this was just a false start. If it can close near the highs then the best we can wish for is another gap up opening either Friday or Monday. A LOT of gaps occur gapping up through the 50 day EMA. Wishful thinking that this happens tomorrow or Monday but we shall see....
Yes...thank you for posting the notes! Interesting stuff and I think you hit the nail on the head. It offers no explanation as to why they don't like management all of the sudden....just a little while ago they couldn't say enough nice things about it. I'll bet you are right that there was a squabble about how much to pay him and they couldn't agree and told him to go pound sand and ego's were hurt...THIS IS JUST A GUESS AND MY OPINION. I think if it were other wise he would explain what he suddenly did not like the management.
Price is threatening to fill the gap as I write this so we shall see..
Hey...I am awake...lol! Good news and can't agree more. This is just the start of great things for this company. If you are new to AVCO have a look at the sticky at the top "Due Diligence on AVCO" to understand why some of us are excited about finding this stock.
One of the key things to observe is the gap that formed this morning. Will this turn into a "breakaway" gap that I was talking about a few posts back? Almost all big moves start with a breakaway gap - A gap in price near the beginning of a move up that never gets filled in.
Interesting the low so far today is the 20 day EMA and resistance so far is exactly at the 50 day EMA...surprise surprise. If we fall back down and fill the gap today then this is just another false start. If we can hold it open then we seriously may be in for the ride of our financial lives if you can sit on your hands and let it run.
We need for AVCO to close above the 50 day EMA in the next day or two currently at 1.31 to really get the ball moving...
Okay...thanks Vipyr.... If he does get back to you let me know in a post here...have a good night!
I feel stronger than ever...as long is there is not something major that I am not seeing. That's what I wanna know...am I missing something? And you are right...I will not sell one little share down here. As long as you do not jump off the roller coaster and you have a solid company you will not get hurt. This is frustrating as hell but I am willing to wait.
Will see...hope you are right!
The question to figure out after you receive an answer from Dr. Tran is...was there something of real substance that changed with the company or was it a case of a difference of opinions and a bruised ego that led to a parting of ways? Will wait to hear from you on what he says.
I sure don't remember him saying to get out at $2.00 when AVCO was at $2.00 do you? Also...how is the story changing about AVCO? Has he said what has changed if anything?
If anything the story is only getting stronger...did you see the last AVCO PR and also the recent interview with the CEO I posted? Also according to the spokesperson I spoke with at AVCO they still have plenty of cash...
I admit though the chart looks like we are in for a tumble...again..what will it do at 1.08...crash right through or bounce off of it? We should know soon...
Hey man...looks like for sure this time we're gonna finally fill the gap at 1.08. The question is will it bounce there or keep going down?
What is the latest news from the Dr. Tran forum? Anything? Just curious..
Absolutely still love this stock! Sell the farm and back the truck up. Don't over analyze it. Most men on this planet are gonna need Profound's services sooner or later. They have the best product out there with top tier management and excellent share structure. We are just starting to pull out of the station as we begin to add clinics and clear the insurance hurdles.
As I have said in previous posts just buy the dips and hold for the long term and you should do very well indeed IMHO.
PS...did not want you guys to think I had gone anywhere because I haven't been posting lately...no need to. PROF is on slow steady auto-pilot to the moon OR be bought up by a big pharma one of these days. One way or the other we are going way up from here !!$$$!!
Inspiring recent interview with CEO Dr. David Jin
Aug 28 2020
Dr. David Jin of Avalon Globocare: Why The Pandemic Can Lead Us To Many Positive Societal Changes and Social Reforms
https://medium.com/authority-magazine/dr-david-jin-of-avalon-globocare-why-the-pandemic-can-lead-us-to-many-positive-societal-changes-c11c27829ac8
Significant price action today...
Dare I ask did we finally find the bottom? Very nice little up hammer candle stick pattern today. We also had the highest volume of the last 9 days. (some individual or firm came in with 20 minutes left in the trading day and bought up 129,000 shares!!) Significantly the 14 day RSI continues to have higher lows in spite of the overall downward price trend. The daily On Balance Volume line is also starting to trend higher. Tomorrow if AVCO can close up above the 20 day EMA of 1.22 we may be out of the swamp and finally start to see AVCO move up in price. Would be great to have a PR announcement before the bell and get a breakaway gap up tomorrow morning with huge volume but would be happy just to see a nice up day to close this week out.
I spoke with someone at AVCO today:
Wanted to check in and make sure the lights are still on at AVCO and yes they are. Of course she can not tell me anything the public does not have access to. The main thing is they are answering their phones and are alive and kicking. She confirmed burn rate is in the area of 400k a month which I heard on one of the videos interviewing Dr Jin earlier this summer (a lot of emerging pharmas burn 2 million a month).They have about 2.9 million in debt and still have 17.1 million in cash reserves if needed. That's all music to my ears...
Is this a floor we are looking at right now around the 1.15 area or do we need to touch 1.06 to fill the gap before moving higher? We will know soon enough. Remember a stock always looks its best when it is sitting at its highs before it goes down and looks its worse at its lows before it goes up.
Thanks for giving me an update on the IBS group. Nice to hear there are medical professionals that believe in AVCO. I'm gonna bet though that most of these investors will get out too soon when AVCO starts to go up. Minimum target for me is the all time high at $13.5...MINIMUM!! But knowing what this company is all about good chance it goes much much higher. It's a rare man who can be right and hold tight...most will bail early.
"But to your gap, has there ever been stocks, where they gapped up or down, and were never filled in the life of a stock?"
Yes sir...it's called a "breakaway gap". Almost every stock that started low and made itself big has a daily breakaway up gap somewhere in its history....an area where price has gapped up but never been filled in ever again. You would be hard pressed to find a big winning stock without one.
Tiny gap but significant as it gapped up on a Monday so it shows up as a weekly gap as well. Agree...wish we could get it over with...
Of course there is no law saying it can't keep going down beyond 1.06 but knowing what we know about the fundamentals of this stock I doubt it...will see.
Good afternoon Mr Vipyr :) Bring up a daily chart of AVCO and put your crosshair cursor on 4/3/20 and you will see on that day price closed at 1.06. Next, put your curser on 4/6/20, the very next trading day, which was a Monday. The low for that Monday is 1.14 leaving a gap in price between the close on Friday and the low on Monday. Since that day price has never traded all the way back down to 1.06 to fill in the gap (they almost did on 9/24/20 bringing price down to 1.10 but no cigar).
I will say looking at the chart at this moment it appears they are setting up to take yet another attempt to fill in that gap. The question is will the filling of the gap be what finally stops the current downward slide? My bet is that they will indeed fill it in and then watch some big PR come out soon afterwards which sends AVCO shooting skywards. This is just speculation on my part but fillings of gaps often reverse trends. We should know soon enough...
Hi Vipyr...yeah I never look at private messages but just read yours.
I have a lot of respect for Dr. Tran and know he knows his stuff when it comes to biotech . That being said he can not just suddenly take back all the positives he has recently researched and reported about AVCO. He must have had a difference of opinions about something and ego's were bruised and that's why he stopped reporting on them. Sounds like he needs to start his own biotech company...
As far as the other guy who said the management was not good. The CEO, Dr. Jin receivied two prestigious awards as the Top Chief Medical Officer by ExecRank in 2012 and Leading Physicians of the World in 2015. Chairman Lu of AVCO is also the Chairman of the Board for the Lu Daopei Medical Group in China since 2010 and is one of the most prestigious group of hospitals in all of China.
There is no way they could attract, GE Health, MIT, Weill Cornell Medicine, the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) and others if they didn't know what they were doing. The other company they worked for was a different situation and I am sure they learned from it.
As far as cash flow they have 20 million sitting in reserves that they have not tapped as of August. Remember also that they signed a deal this summer to distribute Covid-19 rapid tests with North Carolina-based, Cellex Inc.. These are COVID-19 antibody-based rapid test kits, which has been granted U.S. FDA Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). I am sure we will be hearing about revenue from this venture any day now...
Should be an exciting next 6 months for AVCO as they have a lot on the front burner and since the majority of the shares of the company are owned by management there is a lot of initiative to make AVCO successful in my opinion...
No access to chat...what did he say??
Good questions/answers with the CEO, Dr. David Jin, updating viewers on
AVCO's developments in fighting COVID-19 during September's Proactive ONE2ONE Virtual Investor Forum USA, "Defeating Covid-19 - Hidden Breakthroughs" webinar. Dr. Jin speaks four different times during the webinar.
Looks like traders are going to take another attempt at 1.08 to fill the gap left there this past April 6th. Will that trigger the reversal to the upside that is coming??