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Has anyone ever purchased and tried any freedom leaf product (besides that magazine)?
What did you think? What do you feel about the roughly $10 price difference e.g. for Irie CBD organic oil compared to the non-organic more poorly branded version on amazon?
Are people really going to buy this crap? And I mean that in the best way....I know someone who swears by this product called lifeVantage and they keep claiming it cures cancer and the FDA keeps rejecting it and I try to tell them they are taking a placebo but they just get offended. But that product (despite the fact that it’s pretty much worthless for health and is a complete pyramid scheme) is somehow selling like hot cakes.
And in a similar fashion I highly doubt theee organic products from freedom leaf are going to somehow make me feel relaxed, rejuvenated, or more cognitively apt. That said I really don’t care. But if someone is willing to buy into that lifeVantage crap my guess is Hempology should be a shoe in.
Any predictions for closing price tomorrow? Certainly looks like an inflection point is in order and seems like it should be upward- but apparently the sky is falling so it would be tough to go in tomorrow and I wouldn’t blame someone for selling the first blip upward.... if there is one. But for all those thinking a trend down to 20...don’t forget about the sector as a whole and the wildcard that may play on this generally bearish market this month. Aphria is listing next week and it could push the sector higher over the next few days and delay the dreaded trend to 20 cents. And with a long enough delay there could be some good news on that October crop making 29 the bottom instead of 20. I don’t think you can justify going back to 13. Otherwise the 3 million catalyst was for nil. That catalyst is worth more than 13 cents...but I could see an overly bearish correction to 20.
Board owner needs to update page commentary on Pelosi....
It is now false advertising.
Possible, but I don’t see a buyout happening unless the MF results are really good. And even then, I would think they’d want some additional data to ensure they are making the right decision. And just because they are dragging their feet with the CD, it doesn’t mean they are in negotiations for buyout. But at the very least it does seem they are in negotiations for something...perhaps a change to the continuation agreement in terms of award amount or royalties paid out depending on opt-in/out. But negotiations for a buyout I think are definitely pre-mature. And you wouldn’t want that anyway if you think Imetelstat is going places.
Aside from my personal bullish point of view, I perceive this stock as currently undervalued but also way overhyped. When the positive CD does come through, this will be one catalyst driving the price up. A.k.a all of those longs assuming the stock is somehow worth $100+ per share right now. The second catalyst will be a percentage (but not all) of short sellers buying back shares.
I think both catalysts together will create an initial overshoot bubble in the stock price in the ballpark of $20 per share. Then, we will see a steady decrease back down to a once again undervalued stock with a drug in phase 3 trials in the $10 range with the same shorts who have been buying back shares recently, having got back in at the overvalued price.
Determining when to sell is going to be the tricky part. It may even take a few trading days till we see that initial and clear trend downward because of the fact that this stock is way overhyped. Perhaps folks will disagree but I’d be curious to hear thoughts on the right moment to sell post positive CD (assuming you’re not one of those longs that thinks the next stop is $100 per share).
None of the other big execs have dumped their shares. And despite the two individuals you mentioned dumping theirs...they didn’t close their positions completely. Who knows they may have needed to free up money to pay for a house or one of those new Teslas to drive back and forth to their job in Menlo Park for the next few years.
Yes,
I think it was bambino who made the point about how Imetelstat was only listed for compassionate use for like a week. Really, a week? Maybe it was slightly longer but I agree that amount of time is very strange. But I will say this...the clinical trial site was updated on the 14th - the same day Geron was taken off the compassionate use list. The status of the MF trial is “Recruiting” on the clinical trials site. It does seem like they were connected since they were both updated the same day - but I guess we’ll know for sure soon enough.
And yes, I agree, they are the ones driving the trials. What additional information could they possibly get by waiting 2 more weeks till the bitter end that they haven’t already seen? Is it possible they really are still burning the midnight oil crunching data - yes....but I’m not buying that. And if our thinking is correct- you don’t come to that conference on the 13th, fully informed knowing Imetelstat is a dud, then wait 2 weeks to tell everyone. That would be an insane waste of money and time. Rather there is an advantage to waiting till the bitter end when you’re trying to negotiate a path forward.
And there are so many other positive markers. If the decision by Janssen surprises us all by dropping the drug, the people who are betting on Imetelstat to fail will be right- but by complete accident since there is very little to support their argument.
I understand this is subjective and although I don’t think the guy was overly nervous, I did detect a slight inflection in his voice when he stated that they were still reviewing the data. He could have been thirsty, perhaps he was slightly nervous for a different reason, after all, lots of people are watching and listening- it was a very high profile event. Or maybe my ears were playing tricks on me.
FYI, not sure if the webcast is still available but the question from the Barclays rep (at least I think it was Barclays) regarding Imetelstat was asked at about 1 hour and 4 minutes and 30 seconds into the call. The question started to get answered around 1 hour and 5 minutes into the call.....in case anyone wants to go to the JNJ site - perhaps other folks would have a different opinion (if it’s even available anymore).
But either way unfortunately, whether the inflection was present or not, it doesn’t buy us much in terms of our bet.
Here are 2 Janssen employees with linked in profiles that I observed on Sunday 9/16/2018.
I also looked again just now and the posts are still there. I did look at 2 additional ones but can’t recall the names and where I found them. You can google these names and get additional information from other sites besides linked in.
Mark Wildgust - Vice President global affairs oncology Janssen
Lisa Roscioli - Associate director external alliances Janssen
However note that’s the high level article title but the part about Geron is under the “Q3” section heading. Without any reference to a separate reliable source to confirm the phase 2 MF trial results are actually going to be released next week I wouldn’t necessarily count on that to be accurate (but it is intriguing).
I think the more notable, suspicious, and intriguing news from this weekend is the verifiable amount of senior executives (and employees) on linked in - who just this weekend- shared the “Geron’s big day” SA article. I’ve looked at some of these linked in profiles of people who shared the SA article, and although none of them have any direct comment about Imetelstat or Geron, they are highlighting one of the key pipeline slides (that includes Imetelstat) from the SA article. Why they used the slide from a very bullish SA article and not from their own slide deck is interesting.
It is entirely possible that one senior employee decided they wanted to share the pipeline slide, and if they are anything like the company I work for, it may actually have not been that simple to find that slide on the company files system or intranet. Thus, what would they do - they would google images and take the first link they could find that contained the pipeline slide they wanted to share- which coincidentally happened to be the SA article “Geron’s big day”. Then that one senior individual shares it, and that starts a chain reaction. This would have been quite a blunder.
But several senior employees shared it. The odds of none of them recognizing the blunder before sharing it themselves seems unlikely.
And this is quite a gray area I think because can they publically share this SA article on linked in, highlight the pipeline slide from the article (so that it appears they are promoting the pipeline in its entirety and not necessarily Imetelstat), not make any direct comment in regards to Geron or Imetelstat, and get away with that not being a forward looking statement? Then, decide to drop Imetelstat?
I’m no legal expert but either way this decision goes (buyout or whatever) it seems that from a legal perspective something potentially has gone awry. Am I wrong for thinking that?
Possible reason why Imetelstat was taken off compassionate use list.
https://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/PublicHealthFocus/ExpandedAccessCompassionateUse/default.htm
See bulleted item number 3....I’m regurgitating something I read on a yahoo Geron conversation board. If a clinical trial is now actively recruiting (or perhaps starting to plan for it) then that would be grounds to be removed from compassionate use according to the FDA.
That’s not accurate actually because you’re comparing the latest update (September 13th 2018) to the October 26, 2017 version.
So the update in the overall survival endpoint time frame from 3 years to 4 years already happened. You can see that by comparing the October 26th 2018 version to the April 23 2018 version.
However if you compare the latest update (September 13th 2018 to June 22nd 2018) the only updates are as follows:
(1) Record Verification: changed from June 2018 to September 2018
(2) Last Update Submitted that met QC Criteria: changed from June 22 2018 to September 13 2018
(3) Last Update Posted: changed from June 25 2018 to September 14 2018
And that’s it - very ambiguous because all that seems to have changed is the updated date information- nothing else changed. So this idea of the overall survival changing from 3 to 4 years already happened that’s not new news. Seems like they started to update it, checked in the changes but didn’t actually identify what they were updating.
Ya but there were over 60 million - I’m not sure if anyone has a definitive way to get that updated info but my guess is we’ll still be seeing some buying action from them on judgement day. With that many sold short there’s got to be a significant amount of AF type believers out there to take this thing all the way to their eventual crash site.
There used to be a person on here - called himself google pump and dump. I don’t know if he was even ever short on GERN but he loved to ...let’s just call it play devils advocate on this board. I’d be curious to know if he covered by now. He actually inspired me to write a song. I like to call it the pump and dump slump.
One thing that made me feel better is during the Q and A session at 1:05 in the call, they said they were still looking at the MF data and they will be making a decision by the end of Q3 ...”so immenent” was tacked on to the end of that statement.
I’ve heard the Geron CEO state it, I’ve read other authors quoting it but I’ve never heard a Johnson and Johnson rep confirm the decision deadline.
So 11 more trading days to go!
Looking forward to seeing that initial short squeeze. When the decision comes.
Did anyone who listened in on the conference call hear anyone ask about Imetelstat?
Juice,
You commented several posts back about the licensing agreement and whether it was 12 or 24 weeks from the trial completion. You thought it was 12 and then saw it was 24....anyhow, just going off the wording in that agreement do you think this decision could take longer than the 30th? You seemed to have some knowledge and history with it so just curious what your best guess is.
Thanks
Interesting his follow up article today was way more positive and quotes numbers in the $8 range upon positive decision instead of $5...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/2018/09/12/geron-corp-lost-in-translation.aspx
In his follow up he states:
“My key take-home point yesterday -- a point that seems to have gotten lost in translation -- was that Geron's risk-to-reward ratio has morphed dramatically over the last few months -- thanks to both J&J's job posting (risk has seemingly gone down) and the stock's meteoric rise (future rewards have dropped as well due to the the company's new valuation). That's not a bearish take, but it is a black and white assessment of where things stand now.”
That certainly wasn’t my key take-away and I’m not sure how you read yesterday’s article and come up with that key summary.
Additionally, he mentions this in today’s article:
“In fact, I implied that the stock could gain another 20% to 30% on a positive continuation decision by Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ). That would translate into an astonishing 368% rise from the stock's 52-week lows, making Geron one of the best-performing biotechs in recent history.”
I must have missed something if that was his implication. That said, I’m thankful he clarified his thoughts.
Thanks for the info Juice
The Geron CEO said at the end of his last conference call that he expected the next time he talks with investors will be after the decision has been made. I take that to mean it will be announced prior to.
On another note, I believe today is the start of the soho 2018 conference where at 12:00 pm there will be a Janssen supported discussion regarding a clinical update on Myelofibrosis led by Dr. Ellen Ritchie.
Hopefully we’ll get an article or post somewhere from an expert analyst to fill us in on the details later.
The same author wrote this article on April 9th whe the stock was 3.52 per share.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/2018/04/09/3-reasons-this-clinical-stage-biotech-is-an-incred.aspx
Let me know what you think.
It’s interesting that all of the very good points brought up in today’s motley fool article were also known back in April and none of those points were used to counter the positive comments made in his April article.
Honestly if the author really felt (back in April) that the stock had potential to be $43 per share ($2000 / 570 ~ 3.52.....570 x 43 = 24,500) once approved and derisked, why would it be so outlandish to think the stock could be worth $10 (or more) upon a positive decision? And if the author valued the stock in the $7 range back in April, why is he now claiming that even if the decision is positive- it’s in the $5 ballpark? That makes no sense.
But the effect the article had on today’s price is scary.
This could be what caused that huge dip around 10:15 ish eastern standard time
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/09/11/geron-corporation-a-sober-assessment.aspx
I saw a new post from biopearl123 on imetelchat:
http://imetelchat.imetelstat.eu/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=730
biopearl123 posted information from a Janssen site but did not post the link - here it is:
https://www.janssen.com/oncology/disease-area-strongholds
Ha, I think that was more for Billy Ray but his name was already taken darn it.
That’s interesting- any theory as to why that may have changed?
I’d certainly like to see that
This has been a concern of mine since I posted a very similar question about a month ago or so.
All we have to go on is the CEO stating on multiple occasions that the continuation decision is expected by end of Q3. And every article I read always insists on taking the CEO for his word. Not a single author seems to question that end date- although there was an SA article a while back where the author claimed he (or she) was going to join the Geron Q2 conference call and ask a bulleted list of questions where one of the questions was going to be (paraphrasing) Is Janssen legally obligated to provide a continuation decision by end of Q3?
The question was not asked on the call.
But you have brought up a very important point which is the albeit seemingly small chance we continue marching forward with no decision by the 30th.
Yes,
And I think my takeaway was this part:
“Though application as a stand-alone treatment is presently ineffective, GRN163L has shown promising anticancer effects as a combinatorial therapy.”
This is exactly what Janssen is seeing...not some standalone miracle drug, however, something that can be utilized as a part of a combination therapy. This is how their patents are drafted.
Additionally I found the entire section on T-oligos to be very promising and I’m looking forward to learning more about that.
Check out the published date on this article. Great read...
https://res.mdpi.com/molecules/molecules-23-02267/article_deploy/molecules-23-02267.pdf?filename=&attachment=1
I also noticed this which happens just after the conference on the 13th
http://www.investor.jnj.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1075520
And according to imetelchat there is an FBR with Scarlett on the 4th of September ...there is a link that takes you to a meeting connect site
http://imetelchat.imetelstat.eu/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=722
Yes, it is accurate
https://soho2018.org/program/
But the person who posted that seems to be assuming this is somehow going to reveal big news.
Interesting find though- another date to mark down on the calendar.
Yes, it does lend one to question if JNJ ever made any statement at all.
There were several sites that all referenced a report from Bloomberg but none of them referenced the source.
Let me try and rephrase...
The motley Fool article today (and other sources I’ve seen) state that JNJ denied that the job posting had anything to do with their licensing agreement with Geron.
E.g. this is a direct quote from today’s motley fool article:
“Although J&J later downplayed the ad by stating that the "job posting does not have anything to do with its licensing deal with Geron," according to a report by Bloomberg”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/2018/08/27/has-geron-corporations-stock-been-de-risked.aspx
Note that it states “according to a report by Bloomberg”
What I’m asking is - where is the proof that Bloomberg actually reported that? I’ve searched but can’t find any Bloomberg source to corroborate that statement.
I’ve seen several reports (including the latest from motley fool) all claiming JNJ reported to Bloomberg that the job posting had nothing to do with the license deal with Geron. Not a single one references or links to this so called Bloomberg report.
Does someone have a link to the Bloomberg source that reported JNJs denial comment regarding the job posting?
Who here has verified that Bloomberg actually reported that information regarding the job posting had nothing to do with the licensing deal with Geron?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/investorplace.com/2018/08/geron-corporation-gern/amp/
If you read what it says in the above link there is no reference to any evidence that would corroborate the statement. However the job posting is still up last I checked and comes directly from the JNJ website. Additionally, the job posting (which we know is real) completely contradicts the statement made in the link above. If the job posting is requesting the services of someone to determine the price point of Imetelstat in Europe, what else could that posting be referring to? The answer is nothing else until some other evidence validates the Bloomberg report.
Secondly I think the job posting may have had an impact in today’s run. But what about the so called 60 million shares sold short? Longs can have knee jerk reactions when the price starts dropping dramatically causing them to cut their losses- a chain reaction starts that process and the price tumbles as long investor after long investor starts selling. The exact opposite happens for short sellers. I think today’s story has more to do with short sellers buying back their shares in the same chain reaction manner and less to do with the job posting, but I could see the job posting potentially being a catalyst for that chain reaction to occur. I think next week we will continue to squeeze the juice out of these short sellers as they try to cover.
Perhaps someone with some real stock broker experience or just simply someone who knows where to get the information can verify the amount of shares bought back from short sellers yesterday?
I think it’s got to be a mixture of knee jerk reactions from people that got discouraged from coming off a so-so two day winning streak and day traders taking advantage of the probability that a continuation decision is still weeks away. And Adam Frankenstein just got back from vacation this week.
I say break out your calculator and have it ready cause we’re about to practice some multiplication in a few weeks. The chart might look like the 7 hump wump from Dr. Suess today but I’m betting big that we’ll be joining VKTS pretty soon.
We’ve been told the continuation decision will come in Q3. So how might we hear about it? Will it be formally introduced at some conference or will we just wake up and read about it in the news one morning? I wonder what formal forums exist between now and October. I’ve heard of the ASH conference but that’s not till Q4.
They just kept speculating what they would do if Janssen came back with a positive decision. It wasn’t much different than listening to the Q1 call except fewer questions and more programmed statements.
Basically we just won’t know anything until that decision comes in and I’m concerned it may not be in Q3. Yes we’ve heard over and over Q3, but is Janssen really obligated to say anything by Q3? I haven’t read anything that says they are. It sure would make me feel better if someone has some confirmation that states Janssen is obligated.
Does anyone know if Geron will post some sort of transcript or summary of the stock holders meeting on May 15th 2018?
Thanks
It’s fair to state that the updated dates of both trials (among other changes) on the clinicaltrials.gov site can be taken as a positive marker, however, regarding your highlighting of Janssen being the sponsor- that status has not changed since the beginning which can be seen if you compare the latest changes with the very first entry. So that status you are highlighting is nothing new. But I think maybe what you are trying to clarify is that if the primary completion date (in the case of today’s posting for the MDS trial) has been updated from feb 2021 to oct 2020, yet the sponsorship status of Janssen has not changed- one could conclude Janssen is planning to continue the partnership otherwise why would they update the primary completion date to some point in the future yet not change the sponsorship status. However, where you are going with that conclusion may not necessarily be the case. And also I’d probably replace the word “cure” in some of your other posts to “treatment”. Cure is a pretty strong word to use at this stage in the game. And it’s probably not realistic to think the stock price is going to jump to $700 at this point.
But I’ve got to admit I like the idealism.
Additional key dates before the 15th:
May 9th 2018 -
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/johnson--johnson-to-participate-in-the-2018-deutsche-bank-43rd-annual-health-care-conference-300635765.html
May 10th 2018 and May 15th 2018 -
https://marketchameleon.com/PressReleases/i/610221/GERN/geron-2018-annual-meeting-of-stockholders-to
May 10th 2018 is when Geron reports first quarter earnings for 2018
May 15th is the Geron annual meeting of stockholders
Either of these events could provide some insight but maybe not. Hope the radio silence ends soon.
I confirmed your comment about the trial being pulled in (you did not provide a link to that). But more than that, if you go to the clinicaltrials.gov site you can do a side by side comparison by going to the link provided below and selecting a comparison format (merged or side/by/side) then selecting compare. You select the previous version which was October 26 2017 by selecting the "Version A" radio button next to the October 26 2017 row, then select the radio button for the latest updated version April 23 2018 for "Version B" next to the April 23 2018 row.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT02426086?A=1&B=26&C=Side-by-Side
After clicking compare to see the merged or side by side comparison, looking at the current status....the latest update to the current status shows that a change was submitted on 4/23/18. The primary completion date changed from May 4th 2018 to 4/26/2018. Additionally, the study completion date changed from June 12th 2019 to 4/26/2019. Scrolling further down in the Study Description section you can see words were added to the "Brief Summary:" where the added words state "Key secondary endpoint includes overall survival".
If I'm reading the same thing you are reading, sounds like today should have been a much bigger day than it has been for Geron.