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Exactly!!! With that play, it's downside Risk Free, with UPSIDE to the Moon!!!
It really is INSANE, although the relative volume is VERY LOW...
This price is an Illusion and only real if forced into liquidation...
Agreed, I didn't expect it to fall below $6...
Remember, this stock ran up multiple times on massive volume and then falls down on low volume, it can snap back up in an instant... Just can't sell right now, so merely a liquidity issue...
The company has plenty of cash, I don't want to see another sweetheart unnecessary PE deal, nor an extension of the expiring one year warrants...
I enjoyed when Dr. Abeles carved Simonian up in the comments section a few years ago, fully exposing Simonian as an amateur hack...
I share your frustration!
As others have opined, this pattern looks like the share price has been manipulated low in advance of another unnecessary sweetheart private equity with warrants deal...
I don't trust Joshua Silverman. I do trust the rest of the management team. Silverman seems to have full rein to cut these deals, likely again with Michael Silverman and Katalyst Securities...
Let's see what happens with the expiring warrants. I had thought the price would go up and all of these would be exercised, if that doesn't happen, I'd be shocked if they let them simply expire without either extending them or another sweetheart PE deal... We should know something soon...
Keep posting urge2surge!
Pattern: Good news == Price drop
If this trial is a smashing success with a "miracle" cure for Alzheimers and likely other CNS diseases, this stock should go to ZERO....
Very conservative price target!! Safe bet from the analyst, they can claim their target is 100% above current price but the reality is that it is so deeply undervalued that this point is meaningless...
I imagine they solved backwards to this price target and when we see their methodology, we'll see how conservative their assumptions are...
It really is amazing! There are examples of fairy dust trading for $500+ million...
I don't believe these will expire without exercise, IMHO, the current price is a managed illusion and they can't go onto the open market and buy 1.1 million shares for an average cost of $8.51 or less...
We definitely don't need another low priced equity plus warrants cash raise but the current low price makes me wonder if they won't go to that well again...
I love this company and trust our leadership with the notable exception of Joshua Silverman. Among the sleazy possible options is also to extend these warrants...
It is crazy and only underscores how inefficient the market is for this stock... We could have a 4 million shares traded day before the end of the month, and another day like today...
10K question for everyone?
Did this 10K strike you as more user friendly and a better read than prior 10Ks that seemed more classic 10K legalese?
For whatever reason and without going back and looking at previous, this 10K struck me as extremely well written and easily understandable for laymen...
There were 4 million shares traded in one day just a few weeks ago, this stock doesn't trade in an efficient manner, rather a controlled manner and I doubt that they'll want to let those shares disappear, IMHO...
The stock price can get there in a blink and I'm willing to bet that it will before the April 29 expiration date...
LOL!!! Exactly!!! Also, comical to call this company a “pump and dump”, I’ve never seen such a promising company promote themselves less…. This is the anti-pump and dump!
BULLSHIT!!! AVXL is a SCAM!!! Unlike SNPX which has NIH sponsorship and credible trials performed with proper controls in the USA.
I know I speak for nearly everyone in saying, thanks runncoach for your tremendous contributions!!!
It’s as if the Bryostatin story is too good to be true and thus is summarily dismissed by many…. This stock would probably explode if Bryostatin was seen as merely mildly effective and not miraculously so…
As almost always, I completely agree with you and very much appreciate your posts on here!!
Yes, very much looking forward to this upcoming 10K!
2/15 -Short Interest of 479,649. Way below my expectations...
I've been looking forward to this report since 4,013,000 shares traded on 2/1 (31,500 shares traded on 1/31) and the stock price didn't go above $10.65 following the peer review article published and massive relative volume... Very fascinating considering there are only around 6.5 million shares in total and today's volume was only 35,107 total shares traded...
Where did the sell side volume come from??? Naked shorting??? Why is this stock price being manipulated to the low current level??
I just bought more, I already have had more that I really should, but these prices are just plain STUPID...
I would comfortably bet that all of those warrants expiring in April will be exercised...
I expect the stock to be $10+ in April... Consider how much buying volume we've had in the last two runs above the exercise price...
Can you imagine the market reaction if a big pharma company had the exact same science and peer review??? Other examples suggest it would be worth billions in market value...
It is fascinating, we see these spurts of high volume buying, and then they back off and a low volume descent occurs. It is certainly not random and IMHO, is indicative of a highly inefficient market that can be easily manipulated...
These low volume falls are a bit of an illusion as I trust the valuations in the high volume buying much more so... The good news is that this WILL CORRECT at some point...
A lot of us are right there with you!!
I get it, congrats on taking advantage of these undulations!
Yeah, it can be dicey trying to trade with such an inefficient market for this stock... I believe in this stock, I'm happy with my average cost and am happy to just play this out through these funky patterns...
It will be interesting to see the 2/15 short interest report because I would imagine there was a lot of shorting on our recent 4 million volume day...
Shorting Alzheimer's stocks has been a very profitable historical move and maybe they feel invincible with no fear... Woe to them!
Are you trading on this pattern? Congrats if you are!
I'm afraid that the time I do it will be the last time before the move and I'll get left behind...
Given the massive upside, my view is that it is not worth the risk of missing the run to make some relatively small trading gains on the way...
You've posted that you don't think anything will happen until results, I believe that is certainly possible, BUT, this stock is WAY out of balance with risk/reward valuation and IMHO, it could correct at any time...
I agree, we've been in this black hole with such minimal exposure to the broad market... It's only a matter of time...
Who is selling at this price level?!?!??? Just yesterday this stock had a mere 31,500 shares traded all day.
I have to imagine there is a decent number of short shares in this and I can't wait until they are squeezed, that will be fun!!!
Agreed! Also, this might be the beginning of a run... Considering the 5 million shares that traded over $12 a few weeks ago, we should be back over $12 soon...
There should be more positive press releases coming soon as well...
12/15 -Short Interest of 651,022, still a lot of shares that need covered while trading volume is very low...
Compelling!! I think I'll sell out of my entire position and buy Anavex!
11/30 -Short Interest of 766,859, still a lot of shares that need covered while trading volume is very low...
11/15 -Short Interest of 765,730, still a lot of shares that need covered while trading volume is very low...
This was a two-week period where the price went from $10 to $12. Since then, there hasn't been a single day with 100,000 or more shares traded...
To add to runncoach's excellent response, we've broken the pattern this time... It didn't continue to creep down to $6-8, rather, it kissed $9 and then quickly bounced back up over $10+...
My theory is that there was a large inventory of privately placed shares with 200% warrant coverage that were willing to be sold to lock profits in and I suspect we might be through that period now... The sentiment of shareholders is overwhelmingly bullish, IMHO... Why would anyone sell right now, if not to hedge a position with strong warrant coverage...
We seem poised for a run with meaningful news such as the new trials and/or the peer reviewed article...
It is amazing to me that there is nearly one million shares short on 10/29 and with the low volume since, we know that there couldn't have been much covering...
Many of us see this as a ridiculously mispriced risk/reward proposition while the shorts are betting against it, at a price point much closer to zero than through the sky... Seems insanely reckless!!!
I agree! I predicted early this year that we would hit $20 by the end of the year, I've never wavered... Obviously the timing might not work for this, but there is a lot that can happen between now and the end of the year...
Haywood certainly tracks with the sentiment of many of us. I'm glad he shares our views on the potential catalyst of the peer reviewed article, and if we're correct, how tough of a spot are those shorts in right now??
10/29 Short Interest at 924,470 shares!!
Interestingly, there was higher volume from 10/15 to 10/29, and not much was covered. It's very difficult right now to cover with the volume as low as it has been so far in November...
That is still a lot of short shares relative to the float and they are sitting there teed up for a squeeze...