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Great discussion and contributions, thanks gentlemen!!!
InTheTrenches, you should jump back into the moderator role, I believe there is one slot available...
Agreed. And, to say merely triple digit is actually conservative, IMHO, given low number of shares and a seemingly priceless potential...
IMHO, the chances of a successful trial are greater than 50% all things considered... Everything looks sound and solid to me to point to this result, but there is always that risk of the next unknown around the corner...
It seems to me that the learnings from the previous two trials have positioned this third time to be the charm, we'll see...
I don't think anyone is suggesting a "sure thing", but definitely a reasonable chance at success.
What do you think this company should be worth with a successful trial?
This play is a basic bet with the key factors being value with successful trial and probability of such. An opinion on those two variables should solve to whether or not the current share price is a good bet... IMHO, this is the largest overlay I've ever assessed as a handicapper of many types of wagers... It is always obligatory to note that there are no sure things.
Wasn't the placebo result a bizarre statistical anomaly??
It seems to me that much more has been learned since the original 2B trial, and not merely pertaining to Alzheimers but importantly other indications, notably MS...
The peer reviewed article suggests a statistically significant favorable response from the drug and then the current trial was designed with all of the learning factored in. We didn't have that going in to the original 2B...
What is the probability that this trial will be successful?? IMHO, the current share price suggests an expectation of less than 1%, I believe the actual probability is substantially higher...
Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't those market caps WAY HIGHER than current?? To me, the crazy thing about our current price is the absurdly low market cap based upon a relatively low number of shares outstanding (and even fully diluted)...
As I see it, SNPX is a VERY inefficiently traded stock. Sure, at times with our low volume we track with market movements, both positive and negative...
BUT, IMHO, we are a substantially underpriced risk/reward proposition and if some big players get their eyes on it, we could gap up at any time...
I would bet on a run up at some level from current pricing before results are released in early December....
Good luck everyone!!!
YES! I was surprised that he was that categorical!
That was my memory as well and I read your comments right after the call and agreed...
Regarding the upcoming MS and FX trials, I'm hoping that the NIH might put some grant money into these, particularly the MS trial. If so, I would expect this to have a highly positive impact to the share price....
Yeah, he's WAY TO LOW on his price target of $14!!!
I'll take the views of those on this board over any of the analysts that have covered SPNX thus far...
I believe that Anavex (AVXL) is a SCAM! I don't post on their board or spend any time on here talking about them because, why should I??
Thanks RC and Cyosol, great stuff!!!
Thanks RC! I'm just wondering if the paradigm has shifted with the FDA approval process (recent years with Covid drugs) and what that might mean?? Obviously this is just speculative...
IF the trial results are positive, this would presumably be the biggest and most important drug the FDA would be assessing... The public need is massive!
It wouldn't shock to see a powerful big pharma entity join in partnership...
Given the substantial safety data profile of Bryostatin combined with the extraordinary public interest/need, can you see a scenario where the FDA might expedite an approval process, assuming positive results coming?
SPNX is currently trading close to tangible cash with a low burn rate, multiple indications in play and a potentially "miraculous" drug that wouldn't have a value ceiling...
The recent peer reviewed analysis suggests a statistically credible chance at success with the current trial design. The market has valued substantially less that what success in this trial would suggest, at $20+ billion...
So, pick a number??? Would it be stupid for this company to be currently trading at 10x the current price, $67/share, NO, not in the least, it would still offer tremendous upside and be a better risk/reward speculative play than most others in this space, IMHO...
When the trial is successful, we're going to have some fun with this! The trending on iHub can be a very powerful effect!!!
Great point RC, the trending on iHub has to be worth a 20%+ bump to the probability of success from the trial... This effect is new to me, so I'm learning...
I still have 1,000 shares that I kept in an IRA account just to keep an eye on the company... I wish I sold when I read your post, lol...
Heavy buying out of the gate, takes to $7.37, then quickly marked back down to $6.75 on minuscule volume...
Absolutely! They might have doubled their original money and can now play for free with these warrants.
The one year warrants were interesting and the incentive to cash them and book the profit was there due to limited duration (expire before read out) and having the five year warrants in the pocket.....
I respectfully disagree, those warrants still have another 3 1/2 years, I can't see anyone exercising them and merely taking a mild profit with so much potential upside coming...
I'm guessing some of those people sold their original shares at a profit (and got all of their original money back plus profit) and are playing the warrants for the upside potential...
Great job RC!!!
I listened to the full call and could not have written a better summary. A couple comments:
*The call lasted approximately 1 hour and 20 minutes(!!!), mostly answering questions.
*Alkon is MUCH better speaking off the cuff versus reading prepared remarks.
*They seem to be expecting a successful trial, and are making moves with that expectation.
*Comments about results from the research institutions/labs on the various indications seem to only strengthen the underlying case for how the drug works and what it does.
*I was very happy to hear them reiterate their strong cash position. The current low share price is meaningless to me, UNLESS it was used as the basis for another dilutive PE round.
Huge contrast to the last time there was an investor call, where they simply read the prepared remarks and then read answers to a few "common questions". This call had the feel of a gathering wind behind the sails...
There are things in this world that completely dumbfound me, and the current share price of this company is one of them.
Excellent response! They need to hire you as a consultant!!!
Guesses for tomorrow???
Will there be a press release following the market close and before the investors' call?
I'm sensing some positive news coming, what do you all think??
urge, I'm surprised you divested at such low price levels?
I certainly understand and share your frustration with so little communication from management. The company is basically two doctors and an accountant, everything else is outsourced. They are literally the anti-pump and dump company.
I believe they believe in their science and I'm guessing they see it as largely binary (sure there are other trials in development) and thus, success will result in a sharp correction and failure will be what it will be. The history with Alzheimers drugs is that pretty much every one fails and then class action shareholder lawsuits trigger forcing the defending of all communications. This team must feel that less is more in the long run...
I'm fine with this stock being artificially low (obviously my opinion but this thing should be above $10 at a minimum), as long as there is no dilutive equity offering at these prices... The company doesn't need it right now and should get the results before deciding on steps such as this, IMHO...
Keep the faith!!!
Amen! Basic communication and Alkon is so good at it, just do it SNPX!!!
I just did. I joined you as the 2nd vote for MS...
Are my eyes deceiving me, or did SNPX finish up today?? It's been awhile, I forgot that this was possible... Although, maybe I shouldn't say anything, it could be a one day blip...
I do like that idea better! Maybe after the quiet period, they might do something??
I'm thinking that a positive trial result will make it easy to find a Big Pharma partner that will pony up enough money at a WAY HIGHER valuation than current to meet all the financial needs through additional trials and FDA approvals...
We're sitting on a lottery ticket, we don't need to be unnecessarily diluted at this point...
Great idea on the company officers buying shares, they should!!! I'm expecting a quick bounce up after the quiet period ends with the 10Q release.
Completely agree RC!!! Plenty of cash to get through this trial, which I believe they sincerely expect to be successful, and then reassess options...
Cyosol, with $35 million in cash on 12/31/21, how are figuring that the cash will only run through the current trial which should conclude this year?
A buyback of one million shares is affordable, IMHO, and would propel the stock upward. They could say that they will buy shares up to $6, for example, and they wouldn't even have to buy one million shares for that to happen, in fact, merely announcing they would do it, would probably cause the stock to quickly reprice to that level...
BTW, management really should do a public Q&A with shareholders. And, I'm talking about a REAL open Q&A, not some prepared answers to some BS provided questions...
The 10Q should be out any day now??
Great idea! There is plenty of cash, and the shares are trading below the cash per share...
There is NO negative news on SNPX, in fact, we've gotten all of the positive news that we expected from a year ago...
Very low volume, I'm kind of stunned that the high volume demand that we saw purchasing this stock above $12 and then earlier this year above $10, hasn't provided a more reasonable floor.
Irrational pricing right now!!! Plenty of cash, I will go apeshit if the Silvermans' work up another juicy PE deal for cash that is not needed, especially anywhere near current pricing...
It's an ILLUSION!! It's only real if forced into liquidating shares...
There is absolutely nothing negative out on this stock. Still relatively low volume movements tracking with the broad market and sector. I'm sure we all wish we had been actively trading this stock and perfectly timing the highs and lows...
Nothing about the risk/reward dynamics have changed. Great time to buy, but for me unfortunately, I'll already way overweight with this one... Eyes on the future!!!
SMH... Very low volume though...
I'm right there with you! Very confident in that opinion!!!
Yeah, as RC said, it was more of a tongue and cheek back and forth, but certainly with some truth attached...
Let's go literal, approximately $35 million in cash, just under 7 million shares outstanding, approximately $5/share in cash. Burn rate of $8-9 million annual but that could be reduced if plan was to minimize expenses into the read out in 4Q, and then if failure, fully liquidate and distribute proceeds to shareholders. So, yes, it kind of is what we were joking about...
That said, you will probably point out the need to fund trials in the other indications which also means that this isn't simply a binary play, there are other shots on goal which only further amplifies the utter absurdity of the current risk/reward pricing of the stock...
And, we're only talking about cash, I don't care what happens, there is still a lot of REAL value in the licenses and patents portfolio!
I absolutely DO NOT want to see them pull another sweetheart PE (with warrants) deal at these absurdly low prices, that would be theft from current shareholders and would be a breach of management's fiduciary responsibility to the existing shareholders.