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Checkmate! And Runncoach drops the mic...
Dr. Abeles vivisected that guy and exposed him as merely an enthusiast with an opinion and not an expert...
This is by far the best Risk-Reward proposition that I've ever assessed!
This stock goes hours without a single share being traded and then positive news comes out and there is SELLING???? LOL, there is a manipulation going on...
Very exciting, thanks Runncoach!
I wonder if DISCERNTM is being used to qualify those in the current trial??
I agree with you but one difference of opinion, I believe this confirmatory trial will allow the company to get a "fair" value in a big pharma partnership. I'm guessing that with the data they had, this could have been done already, but perhaps at a value they believe to be below "fair" based upon risk... I believe their confidence is so high that they think it is a lock to achieve the expected data, which should then make it easy to strike a favorable deal... I don't know what that valuation would be but it is way, way higher than current, by multiples...
Another small trade sharply drops price immediately before market close...
The market for these shares is so shockingly thin and inefficient that the market valuation of this company can be moved by 7-figures with a trade volume of 4-figures...
Effectively it is meaningless in the long run but in the short run, smaller players can get manipulated into selling based upon fear...
I view this as basically like a private equity play that is locked up for this period of low inefficient liquidity... When the good news hits, it will make no difference if the stock is at $3, $6, $10, $20, etc...
I think most of us believers in this company already have a sizable position relative to our means, and are just waiting right now...
True, great opportunity!
But, it's not like there is that much selling. The volume is low and this thing is being quietly and methodically walked down in price... When you have a stock that can go hours without a single share traded, it's easy to manipulate the price...
Small trade at close drops the stock $.40...
This is a painful stock to check in on, with the low volume and poor liquidity allowing a few thousand dollars of trading volume to move the market capitalization by several million...
I know it is a game of patience right now but I'm just venting about the silliness of this...
Neurotrope website??
Are you guys able to access the Neurotrope website?? It seems like it might be down...
Nemours / duPont is a big time partner for the Fragile X trial, great news!!!
Interesting that this news breaks leading into the Investment Conference in NYC. The low trading volume is odd, seems like the calm before the storm... This stock should break open for a run anytime now...
Runncoach, great stuff, you da man!!!
I'm not expecting Neurotrope to remain a fully independent entity through the retail sale of Bryostatin...
I'm very impressed with the current management team and there appears to be a strategy and methodology to everything they are doing.
Fragile X being what it is, will very likely have a well heeled partner (children's hospital or foundation) to fund the trial once the details have been worked out. This could be the next meaningful announcement in terms of the stock price getting a bump. Not knowing anything about what this will ultimately look like, I'm thinking this should be worth several dollars to the share price...
To my thinking, a successful confirmation trial will do two things: 1) provide a potential fast track with the FDA, and then correspondingly, 2) create a more tangible higher valuation basis for a sale or dilutive partnership with a big pharma company. We are talking about the potential of a priceless asset, there should be a significant bidding war in the event that the confirmation trial goes as expected/hoped for...
I would bet that they could sell the company right now for quite a bit more than the current market valuation. Hypothetically, if they were offered $300 million, I'm confident they would turn it down without a second thought based upon the expectation of where the confirmation trial is going and what they can get after that...
It's even bigger than the $10 billion bump to Biogen's market value, their Japanese partner also saw a $10 billion bump in market value...
We are tracking along the same lines here.
I was fortunate to have secured a 10,000 share tranche just over a year ago at an average of $4.18, that helped with my dollar cost averaging. I'm in for 38,000 shares at an average cost of about $6.50.
I love trading but I can't do it with this stock as the wide bid-ask spreads and lack of liquidity, not to mention the potential of this thing exploding to the moon, make it prohibitive for me. I don't want to get caught without a chair when the music stops playing for having sought out a few thousand dollar quick trading profit... It's just a game of patience right now...
We are in agreement.
Assuming success, I think there will a lot of options (won't lack for suitors) for this management team and it would be nice to bring in a lot of money in partnership but retain some of the ridiculous upside, the creative dealmaking options are endless so whatever it is, it should be very good...
Runcoach, what is your opinion on when we will learn of the Fragile X trial and potential partner?? Alkon mentioned earlier in the year that they would like to run it concurrently with the Alzheimer's confirmatory trial and then has also mentioned it starting this year...
Two part question for those interested:
1) If the confirmatory trial is successful, easily within statistical significance, in confirming the selected data from the previous 2b trial, how much would the company be worth at that point in time?
2) What is the probability of success for this confirmatory trial?
My answers:
1) If this trial is successful, there should be a favorable scenario for an FDA fast track and big pharma should be lining up to bid on the company. I think this value should be AT LEAST $1.5 billion or at that point, $100 per share.
2) Based upon the clear direction of the previous selected credible data, I think the expectation should be above 50%.
If I'm anywhere close to being right, the risk/reward relationship is way out of whack relative to the current share price. Frankly, I would think this stock would still be a great value at $30 per share right now... Yes, I have put my money where my beliefs are and have a large position...
I'm curious what others think???
Bryostatin is NOT a statin, correct??
Biogen and Eisai
We were talking about the $10 billion market value bump that Biogen got, but additionally, their Japanese partner Eisai got a $10 billion bump for a total of $20 billion... Staggering!!
Our drug is better!!!
Question about Capital Raise??
You guys have been mentioning the possibility of incentives to exercise warrants as a means to raise capital, but it seems to me that NTRP is creating a buttoned up partnership proposition with a big pharma company, assuming that the trial results are consistent with previous trial and as expected.
Obviously there are two different paths, independent, and partnered, do you guys feel that there is a strong indication to remain fully independent (in terms of ownership)??
Cyosol, forgive me, how ironic that I made the mistake that I suggested that you made, I hate when that happens!
Wow though, think about the insanity of the $10 billion valuation bump for something that appears to be less than what we have at Neurotrope!
Cyosol, you are off by a zero, but the point is still valid!
Biogen is up approximately $1 billion in market value today which would be like an increase of over $100 a share of Neurotrope!
That is for slowing the rate of decline, not reversing!!
How is this stock so deeply below radar???
Runncoach, thanks for sharing this interesting patent! Do you know how broad the scope of the Neurotrope Bryostatin-1 licensing agreement is? Is it merely for Alzheimers, Fragile X, etc., or is a broader definition that includes any neurodegenerative disorder, for example?? Is this particular patent that you shared covered under the licensing agreement?
Edit after original post: My reading of the 10K leads me to believe that the licensing would include this patent (under the broader "CRE License") but the legalese jargon is not as clear as I would prefer...
There are two videos of Dr. Alkon speaking on Neurotrope and strategy that were done in February of this year. I'm struck by just how few the views counts are on You Tube. The videos are:
Cyosol, Why would people exercise their warrants, are they expiring soon?
The problem for those people that are waiting is that, AFTER the results, I don't see a market in the $10-12 range, this thing could/should gap up substantially...
The current share price is deeply undervalued and far from "efficient" pricing. This is only "real" if one is forced to liquidate in the current market. Imagine the impact to the current price if someone wanted to buy a 10% interest in the company from the market?
The new CEO just started one month ago. We know that they are working the details of how they will conduct the confirmatory non-memantine AD trial and additionally a Fragile X trial. I'm sure that there will be partners at various levels with these but we don't know the details just yet... What is the new CEO working on if not buttoning up the best deals that he can?
I truly believe that there are casual observers that aren't buying the stock or taking the prospects seriously because of the low valuation and thin trading. I'm guessing that when the announcements come, we could see a gap up in share price, leaving those that figured that they could get in on the run up lamenting why they didn't just jump in or acquire more shares at this low price point...
Runncoach,
First time poster, I have a significant ownership interest in this company. Your posts are very much appreciated!!
I read the Roth analysis as well and agree with your comments. The report is well written, straight forward and logical. The price target valuation is a little silly as I think they solved backwards to a number ($15/share) that both represents a high percentage increase from current but is still ultra conservative on nearly every assumption.
As the wind picks up behind the sails of this stock, the analyst targets will escalate quickly.
Keep up the great work! I think our future here is going to get exciting much sooner than later...