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CC, do you still adhere to the principles of 50-day moving averages? RD
Viking John posted about the 50-day SMA, who, evidently, may rely on it, but no, I don't strictly follow it. I do, however, look for the Golden Cross (50/200-day crossover), which is rather reliable. Like everyone here, I also focus on volume.
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What I do want to know, if all these fund managers are losing money, even the hedge funds, then where is all that money going? RD
Where is all the money going? Hmmm...sounds like a philosophical song.
Where have all the flowers gone? Long time passing....
I don't know!
It's perfectly legal for market makers to naked short a stock as long as they're doing it in the ordinary course of business (making a market).
So I don't see why there would be a reason for them to start with any other postion than neutral (= 0 shares)
RealDutch
Since it's required for SIAF to designate new Market Makers when moving to a new market exchange, and since the MMs must be prepared to buy and sell from their own inventory, wouldn't they begin trading for their own accounts prior to the uplisting in order to establish a strong trading position?
My question is: would (legal) naked shorting, somehow, be used as a mechanism to acquire stock at a lower price than what will soon become a more reasonable price range? Could this be why SIAF's current price is down and heading lower, possibly?
Nasdaq Guru Analysis
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/siafd/guru-analysis
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Does anyone know how the market making process gets started when a new listing (uplisting) is being prepared to trade? As the market maker acquires stock, would naked shorting ever occur?
A picture of a Christmas gift on its way to us, no doubt:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAFD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p35728008771
JV:
Here's a comparison of EEM and SIAF:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p97339311237
Do you have any thoughts on how they are recently moving together?
Anyone?
What do you call SIAF when the big guys are jockeying for position?
collateral damage ~surfer44
I like "collateral damage", but what about 'Window Dressing' or 'Tax-Loss Selling'?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p90709407641
I agree there's an unethical shorting agenda always hanging out there: I hope the activists here will make sure our new listing does not include options, which empower short sellers.
Bizarre situation? Can't we assume the dividend was initiated to lend credibility to SIAF in view of the fraud occurring within the small cap Chinese sector?
If the dividend were given in December, now, before the SP rises, probably everyone would use it to buy additional shares. By allowing the longer term stakeholders to increase their shares now, it would serve to give a sort of buy-back effect to the long suffering individual holders, themselves, rather than to actually reduce the number of outstanding shares.
After that, the official company buy-back could be established, which is a highly regulated process with complicated policies.
Looking at the 6 month chart, it seems like we've lost momentum, which would be natural during December. But, when considering the longer term on the 3 year chart, obviously, we're still right on course.
6 Month
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p93116178638
3 Year
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16785278802
Rate of Change (ROC)
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=roc&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:rate_of_change_roc_and_momentum
Something else I wonder about: Once SIAF is listed and becomes a marginable security, will that increase its investing/trading attractiveness enough to boost the SP...? If an one had a really huge investment in SIAF, wouldn't they wish to use margin to gain some liquidity?
For fun we can calculate the dividend payout per share
EPS Payout(%) Dividend
2014 0.60
2015 0.84
2016 1.09 8% 0.067
2017 1.37 16% 0.17
2018 1.68 24% 0.33
2019 2.01 32% 0.54
2020 2.40 40% 0.80
2021 2.83 40% 0.96
2022 3.31 40% 1.13
2023 3.81 40% 1.32
There will be stock buybacks and special dividends from spin-offs as well.
Of course a P/E of 20 in 2023 means a share price of $76. So people won't care much about the dividends. RealDutch
Thanks for your always interesting comments!
According to your (fun) calculations, would it be better to have a higher yield with less shares (buy-back) or a higher price with no buy-back, using the cash-flow for increased growth and development?
I wonder... maybe the dividend will increase the SP just in itself. It does seem the dividend would be important to those of us that haven't been able to acquire a large number of shares.
What is your thought regarding the dividend yield for the next 5 to 10 years, as we are "stuck" with this wonderful stock for the duration.
VJ, thank you for your play-by-play description and analysis:
Here's a 6-month, candlestick chart to go with it:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p05559026846
Only for those who like to see charts, it's reached the Pivot Point on quite low volume: [ha,ha]
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p29334988661
VJ,
I, for one, appreciate your comments! I hope you keep sharing your TA experience with the board. Perhaps others that are not interested might just *ignore* us.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p34466366819
PAPPY, Please look at SIAF!!!!!
I see the SP is slipping below Chandelier Exit, but if we adjust for *volatility* from 3 to 5 (as instructed), then the price is far above the Exit.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p60759611503
Chart
We're back to Green in the Elder Impulse System, and above the Chandelier!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p85036496573
Hovering over the .75 Pivot Point today seems like a positive indication....
Chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p81284997585
Since shorters are responsible for paying dividends to the actual holder, would professional shorters avoid income stocks like we expect SIAF to become?
Some charts....
Weekly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10854076362
Daily comparing RUT
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p98914662712
This chart shows action before 2009:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/siaf/charts?symb=SIAF&countrycode=US&time=20&startdate=11%2F1%2F2010&enddate=11%2F25%2F2010&freq=3&compidx=none&compind=none&comptemptext=Enter+Symbol%28s%29&comp=none&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=16777216&lf2=4&lf3=268435456&type=4&size=3&style=360
Just some random charts I'm looking at....
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51892335659
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p80323140068
"Oh. That explains the many NITE orders I guess. Like 50% of all buying comes from NITE. Hyperboy's group is NITE as well I think..." RD
KNIGHT EQUITY MARKETS, L.P. is shown on almost all of my Chinese buy/sell orders, so NITE may be preferred by brokers like Fidelity for some reason.
"why not set AVR at 11 days and see what the real stop loss limit is at now?"
We can try that but, probably, after experimenting Charles LeBeau used 22 for a reason. We might try 5 for volatility rather than 3, though.
Traders can use the Chandelier Exit for setting stop loss orders:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=chandiler+exit&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:chandelier_exit
Resistance and Support according to Chart School:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97750060940
A bullish Golden Cross (50 day SMA crossing 200 day SMA) was confirmed yesterday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p64760743197
How does BSPM manage to maintain a PE of 7 to 8? Can that be compared to the SIAF situation?
I see SIAF is still blue.... And what happened to the volume? Will there be a short covering rally near close?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p89244778992
3 Year Weekly Chart with Resistance and Support Points
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90411727839
SIAF appears a bit blue this morning, but maybe the mood will change later...?
Elder Impulse System
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p16914811848
Quote
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Hanging man??
Someone posted today that candlestick formed a "hanging man".
That is so wrong.
It formed a "hammer"!!
A hammer says we are locking for a price being "hammered" - but not if it is up or down!!
I we look at volume and charts, this is a VERY bullish formation IF and oly IF we close higher today with good volume (good volume would be anyting above 1.5 mio or so)
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Since SIAF is in an advance this is defined as a Hanging Man even though the actual candle shape is identical.
"Hammer: Hammer candlesticks form when a security moves significantly lower after the open, but rallies to close well above the intraday low. The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick forms during a decline, then it is called a Hammer."
"Hanging Man: Hanging Man candlesticks form when a security moves significantly lower after the open, but rallies to close well above the intraday low. The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this candlestick forms during an advance, then it is called a Hanging Man."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_pattern_dictionary
According to the Elder Impulse System SIAF is now equally balanced between buying and selling:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p77808827539
"Green price bars show that the bulls are in control of both trend and momentum as both the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are rising. A red price bar indicates that the bears have taken control because the 13-day EMA and MACD-Histogram are falling. A blue price bar indicates a split or equilibrium between buying and selling pressure."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=elder+bar+turned+blue&id=chart_school:chart_analysis:elder_impulse_system
Yes, you may be right. We need to look for Bearish/Bullish confirmation in the following days.
SIAF formed a Hanging Man candlestick pattern today:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p71966729446
Hanging Man Candlestick example from StockCharts.com
"The Hanging Man is a bearish reversal pattern that can also mark a top or resistance level. Forming after an advance, a Hanging Man signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow confirms that sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of selling pressure raises the yellow flag. As with the Hammer, a Hanging Man requires bearish confirmation before action. Such confirmation can come as a gap down or long black candlestick on heavy volume."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks#long_shadow_reversals
SIAF broke out of the trendline (.585 to .520 to .444) today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91927589391
I wonder if Olivia, Solomon, and Dan look at financial projections with DLF:
Degree Of Financial Leverage - DFL
"...DFL...is invaluable in helping a company assess the amount of debt or financial leverage it should opt for in its capital structure. If operating income is relatively stable, then earnings and EPS would be stable as well, and the company can afford to take on a significant amount of debt. However, if the company operates in a sector where operating income is quite volatile, it may be prudent to limit debt to easily manageable levels...."
More here:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dfl.asp?utm_source=term-of-the-day&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=TOD-8/27/2014
Bollinger Bands Update
3 year Line chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31808335539
1 year Candle chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74570783863