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Should force a flat fee per trade like many brokerages do to retail investors. Thing would end so fast you couldn't even say HFseeya before it was gone.
I find the activity this week a little encouraging actually. No engineered run-up heading into the conference bodes somewhat well, compared to history.
(At this point, I pretty much cheer for anything that flies in the face of logic and history. Much to everyone's chagrin, probably.)
Come on in, the water's warm. Hope you brought me a beer and a life preserver?
This is the first 13-F by Knoll in which both ADXS and ADXSW appear, dated 2/17/15.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1325083/000114420415010045/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml
It doesn't look like they're of the variant that expires in October 2018. The last digit of the expiration year is truncated, so I don't remember when that class expires. July 2018?
I was talking about the past more than the future. I don't know whether they'll dilute again. I hope not but I also wouldn't be surprised. It really depends on what they haven't told us and the implication that information has on finding partners for alternative funding. If they're sitting on bad news about the science, we're in for a world of hurt and might as well call it. I'd really hope they're not just drawing this out.
If they did this I would drive over there and ask who I owe sexual favors to.
I could see it happening, yes. Why let them expire worthless and burn $15M?
Everyone's sitting here hoping for news of deals and other stuff, but I wouldn't put it past them to announce dilution on the 23rd. What better place to discuss things with CF the underwriter than at a CF conference? At $5 -- as the theory goes -- now it's a premium and even looks encouraging.
*Ducks*
Sorry guys. Just jokin'. I hope.
Not sure if this is sarcastic, but there are whole industries out there that would disagree vehemently with this.
I didn't say a thing about its future. And I've qualified every suggestion to buy warrants with "you must believe".
Its present is pretty damn bleak. But that can turn around. I expect the company won't want the $15M guaranteed from warrants to burn and will do what they can to rectify before then. If they don't, then both common and warrant holders are probably screwed. That's why it makes more sense to buy warrants than continue helping the cycle by buying common.
ADXS is not remotely NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, etc. Those tickers have many more players than ours. This activity has likely scared off many potential buyers.
I'm also not saying they're infallible. But I AM saying that they're doing this and that buying is enabling it. Even worse if they have information that most others don't.
Small buying = bad
Big buying = good
Too bad we have no big buyers.
Wonder about the "best ever GOG phase 2" flash crash? That was big buying. That flash crash is what happens when it almost spins out of control.
False. I said as much yesterday, but I guess I wasn't clear.
First, you're not considering elasticity which is literally the first thing they teach you right after the inane nonsense about supply and demand in a vacuum.
Second, your economic theory is based on assuming a free market with all players on equal footing and equal information. This is not a free market and we are not on equal footing or have equal information.
Hence, your assumptions are completely invalid as is your attempt to use it to invalidate what I suggest.
What happened to 8.46 or whatever?
Eh, I think if they're going to allow it to run more than 50% to your target it's probably more likely to be a mistake than not. The only time that has ever happened was following Amgen which was arguably the biggest event in company history.
Everybody is grasping at straws. The only truth is that for years, every upward swing is promptly smacked down in a controlled manner. Short interest ebbs and flows around 10M correspondingly at every single price level we've seen since late 2015. The lack of covering at any price point can only mean two things: 1) they want people to buy so they can smack it down and scalp the difference, and 2) they dial the short shares up and down to push the price around but want to maintain a central 10M short position.
Otherwise, we'd easily be looking at short interest way over 15M by now given the price movements if it was organic.
From there you can extrapolate what that means and draw your own conclusions for your own investing/trading purposes.
Take note of the responses to a suggestion that still grants exposure to Advaxis's upside potential.
Why would they take issue with this?
Pay attention. These people are not your friends.
Disregard this advice. Buy warrants if you're going to add anything, or don't add at all. Buying is what they want you to do so that they can short into the upward pressure you create.
How many times are people going to fall for this? How many times are people going to point out big amounts of shares available to short from brokers that are subsequently just re-shorted from higher up? If nothing changes those short shares will be right back here and we'll drop into the low 4's or 3's.
Break the cycle. Stop buying common stock.
How about Amgen? Amgen went through the trouble of striking a deal with Advaxis, and even went and made spiffy updates to their website about it. So, they must have some opinion of Advaxis that's at least remotely stronger than a wet noodle.
That update seems to indicate they're taking it pretty seriously, which in turn would mean they don't really have an interest in Advaxis floundering about, getting picked off, going bankrupt, etc. Would they want to strike first in a hostile takeover scenario? At what price point do they step in and just buy the thing for giggles, regardless of what the company wants? Are there any historical cases where a BP has stepped in and aggressively taken over a partner just to prevent the tech from ending up in someone else's hands? (Looking for specifics here, to draw parallels in the details between Advaxis and those cases.)
Indeed. I don't doubt that something like that is going on to some degree, but I do have doubts about the magnitude. ADXSW typically never sees more than a few thousand traded per day, it would take an awfully long time to gather them all up...
...Unless everyone is just about absolutely sure they're going to $0 and they collectively let them all go. But that really bodes badly for warrant, common holders, and even the company itself since at that point the price would have remained so low for such a long time that the odds of a takeover would be astronomical.
The problem with this idea is that there are only 3,000,000 warrants (and thus shares to be drawn from them) outstanding, representing less than 10% of the company and less than 30% of the short interest.
That's not a terribly large amount to go around so I'm not sure it would be worth doing all this just for a return on barely half the shares owned by Adage. I could definitely see it playing into part of a covering strategy, though.
Continuing about ADXSW:
- If you think these big swings make for good trading -- you're right, sort of. Plenty of times I've parked a buy order 1 cent above the bid, gotten it filled, and put it up immediately 1 cent below the ask for instant profit. The problem is that the total lack of liquidity also makes it hard to do this with any sizable amount. There's also the risk of it abruptly swinging right past you in the direction you don't want it to go in which case patience and luck are critical to avoiding very costly mistakes.
ADXSW is the ticker for warrants.
Each 'share' of warrant is a ticket to buy one share of ADXS at $5.00 a pop, regardless of the price of ADXS at the time you do it.
They're similar to options, but longer term, expiring worthless in October 2018. In other words, if you wait beyond October of next year, the ticket is worthless, do not pass go, do not collect $200.
Notes:
- The $5.00 is non-negotiable.
- ADXSW will always trade within $5.00 of ADXS, and that gap will widen as expiration draws closer unless it looks like they will expire worthless in which case you may be SOL and it will drift to $0. You HAVE to believe if you are going to buy right now.
- That "within $5.00" feature is where the gains are baked. As an example: ADXSW is currently at $1.97 (haha, I wish I hadn't looked, how upsetting). If ADXS rises to $10 (roughly a gain of 100% today), then ADXSW should rise to at LEAST $5.00 (a gain of 150%). Typically it will be within $2-3 of ADXS so you'd be looking at closer to 200%-300%, but the widening gap over time will influence that to the downside.
- As the price rises (sadly, not a thing we can really worry about) the returns between ADXS and ADXSW progressively favor ADXSW more and more. If you were to select some inputs and plot curves for the returns of each, ADXSW will have a higher slope. Note this slope differnce also works against you in the opposite direction.
- ADXSW is incredibly illiquid and the bid-ask spread is typically gargantuan. Don't put in a market order or you'll get creamed. There are often hidden bids and asks scattered around within the spread that you can blindly hit. You can scout around for where those are if you adjust a limit order by 1 cent at a time.
- The lack of liquidity and the bid-ask spread often combine for some really big swings on the ticker sometimes. You'll see days where ADXS is up 1% and ADXSW is up 10% for seemingly no reason. Really all that happened was someone reached across the spread and bought a couple of shares.
Also I would think the company would prefer the warrants exercised than expire worthless. $15M is a decent chunk of free money to casually throw into the fire. But the question is, is $15M enough for them to focus on?
At the present rate of decay both common and warrant holders have a pretty grim outlook by the time the warrants expire, so the risk is more or less the same. Prayer is all but a requirement for both at this point. The upside, on the other hand, favors the warrants.
More importantly, buying warrants doesn't hurt everyone else by playing right into the short machinations and helping them along.
Sure, expiration is getting close, but it only takes one good day to fix that. I guess Rome COULD be built in a day, depending on who you ask.
I second this if you believe. Not just because I hold the warrants and you'd be helpin' me out (as little as that would), but because your purchase wouldn't be helping drive the upward pressure that they rely on in order for re-shorting a local top to be profitable.
Yeah, Ig. The idea is ridiculous and goes against everything they teach you in Econ 101. Econ 101 also makes assumptions about markets that don't apply here, so it's hardly the same.
Fair enough, thanks.
Good old Delaware has some of the best protections around, too.
The thing that gets me about these settlements is that for several 10-Qs running, the verbiage has been that the company will "vigorously" defend. Settling doesn't seem so vigorous.
So what changed? I see people jumped right to the "lawsuits look less appealing to suitors" angle, which was obvious and expected. What I'm also interested in is if there have been any historical cases where the legal slate is wiped clean in order to minimize insiders' personal liability during liquidation or anything of the sort. Not saying that's what's happening here (or even if it works that way at all), but it's only fair to consider all angles.
Come to think of it: both of these settlement updates pertain to activity that took place during April. Knoll was settled April 27, and notice of intent to settle Bono was given on April 13.
Does anyone know what it might signify that the company seemed to have been in a hurry to settle their lawsuits?
Sure is. They recently settled a lawsuit over that kind of thing and are in the process of settling a second per the 10-Q. Another feather in their squandering-shareholder-money cap.
That garbage should come out of their personal bank accounts, not the company's balance sheet and insurance payments. It's not like we the shareholders saw one cent of that spring load.
Sure you did buddy.
Like I said yesterday, people have no reason to be pissed on green days because they aren't losing money.
"Maybe this time it'll turn around!" Nope. Now they're back to losing money.
What do you really expect?
Here's what I got from it:
1) 4/13 patients achieved stable disease
2) 3 of those 4 patients achieved stable disease at dose level 1, the other achieved stable disease at dose level 2
3) Dose level 3 produced nothing
4) Oodles of pure speculation about biomarkers and how it could predict success, but next to nothing seems to be known about it yet and it will be investigated during the combo arm with Keytruda.
Nothing we didn't already know, I think.
Not a whole lot stopping Adage from either indirectly operating or forming an allegiance with Ma and Pa's Hedge Fund Co down the block and doing it through them. We've seen plenty of evidence that hedge funds cooperate in various ways and some of them quite illegal.
Even if not this exact approach, I'm sure there are more loopholes hedge funds can exploit to do this than ADXS has dollars in market cap.
I don't think he's expecting news but rather expressing disappointment with news over the last year. We haven't heard anything particularly compelling in a very long time, and what we have heard has been rehashed entirely or minimally expanded over an extended period of time on a few occasions.
We're instead greeted with new excuses to burn cash on new R&D such as DUAL, biomarkers, etc., instead of dialing back the existing burn rate aside from suspension of HER2 which was already the least expensive franchise aside from NEO which hasn't ramped up, per 10-Qs. The money invested into HER2 is now sitting there, collecting dust and hoping to be sold off to at least recoup the costs. To me this suspension/restructuring signals that, on top of everything else, even their ability to spend money wisely and efficiently on R&D isn't/hasn't been up to par.
I would have preferred they reduced Personnel Expenses by 10% (~500K/quarter) and keep HER2 (~500K/quarter) running, even if just for appearances while selling it off. It looks less desperate and may have convinced any interested parties that it commands a higher price tag than it does now.
It really looks to me like they're buying time and drawing this out, and it isn't becoming. I wish it wasn't this way, but I'll call a spade a spade and see no reason to sugarcoat it. I really hope I'm wrong and there's a surprise in store somewhere, but they haven't given much to be confident about.
If I had to do it (and this requires the kind of grip they have on the ticker), it's not much more than a share transfer to themselves or to a friend, i.e. put in a sell order for 50k on one account and a buy order for 50k on another account, timed/coordinated by algorithms to minimize interception.
Here, I can take things out of context too.
"Exactly"
Glad you agree with me finally.
I really don't know what you mean. Feel free to go through my post history, on several occasions I've explored Advaxis's trading history in more objective detail than I've ever seen here.
My position is/was that I feel/felt the company can achieve a price higher than when I bought in, eventually, and it's being held back by whomever is masterminding this nonsense. And I'm in a hurry for that to happen because I hold warrants, so the sooner they hit the bricks the better.
If you're wondering why I use some past tense up there, it's because I would be absolutely lying if I said I wasn't a little worried for the first time about the science itself. I don't appreciate the appearance of "buying time" that they've been signaling with the biomarker avenue, the restructuring/suspension of HER2, the recent soft trial results, and the disastrous PR throughout all of 2017. Too far down to sell now, though. History shows it bites you the next day after you pull the trigger.
I understand there are alternate explanations for all of these things that aren't bad. However as a cynic, I defer to the "one is an incident, two is a coincidence, three is a pattern" rule.
Observation, extrapolation, healthy questioning of assumptions and theories that get thrown around here willy nilly, rejection of assumptions and theories that have been proven false at every turn and, most of all, very little faith in people to do the "right thing".
It's because they know the company is going to issue them the shares they need to cover soon enough without having to worry about slippage.
Can't happen soon enough if you ask me. Sure, I'll take a 20% dilution to send them packing. Not like we aren't taking 20% hits on a regular basis anyway.