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Meh, I don't think that factors in nearly as much as people say. Probably a myth perpetuated by Wall Street to give retail investors yet another strawman to blame for seemingly inexplicable losses.
On dilution. If Adage is short, wouldn't they be pushing for dilution since it helps them?
Maybe DOC did get fired, not for any of his misdeeds but for trying to force dilution to help Adage.
All roads seem to lead back to my original theory from where I stand. Maybe only DOC was complicit and not the BOD. Who knows.
Another reason they may have kept over 10%. I can't believe these guys have a direct line to the BOD and can whisper sweet-nothings in their ears.
Palpable dejection in the air/silence today.
More of the same exact crap as always. I guess we just won't catch a break.
Guess we better watch for that second Form 4 after all.
Sigh.
I don't know how or if it's illegal, as I'm not a lawyer. But I do know that if you piss off the wrong people, you'll be neck deep in lawyers foaming at the mouth for an opportunity to nail you to the wall and collect a fat check. And they're great at finding a way.
Just making the millions isn't the game. The only barrier to entry is starting capital. Getting away scott-free while making those millions is the game.
I'd argue they aren't very good at it at all and should probably stop. If I were Gross or Atchinson I'd be half crapping my pants over how apparent this all is and the legal ramifications.
Come to think of it the real kicker would be if they left ownership above 10% under the assumption that someone would notice and realize it means they might file another form 4 disposal. They then sound the alarm on it which discourages buys, leaving more for them to buy.
Now we're in reverse reverse psychology land and it's hard to know your head from your ass here (have fun with this one zzaatt, it's just for you). So screw it, it's a 50/50 gamble. I digress.
Indeed. I don't even think it's that complicated. Make a few general plays in a playbook, tweak it slightly each time, and you're off to the races. All you need is a bunch of money: money to capitalize and money to promote and money to pound into anyone who tries to challenge you. The last one becomes self-reinforcing, and you end up with the stock in isolation, like here.
You could probably devise a scheme to manipulate a biotech stock like they did here in less than a day.
I think this sector is friggin' borked is what I think. I wouldn't be surprised if shorting the box happens more often than it doesn't, and in almost every price-crushing case the same party that's capitalizing the stock is the same one that crushes it to guarantee their profits. Maybe this is why Knoll was so pissed about DOC turning around and selling to Adage. They wanted to be the ones to do it so they could keep the spoils, which are far more than just owning some shares.
It's not a necessary evil, it's a plain old unnecessary evil. So much for an organic, free market. And so promising medicine is stolen or auctioned off on the cheap, shelved for years or forever, and the whole of humanity suffers. It's a travesty.
No, I'm balancing the voices because team pump is getting out of hand and taking over the board with wishful thinking again.
Yes, I am disappointed that Adage is still holding over 10%. That's nothing but a threat. This is not a relief rally, it's a trap.
Jesus Christ guys. It's the day after our biggest holder just let 20% go and you're talking like we're scott-free and expecting bounces TO THE $10-15 RANGE?? On what planet?
You're all going to be disappointed when you see the next Form 4. Especially if you're buying right now into this very clearly engineered "bounce". Buying makes this wheel spin. This is another in a long line of upward nudges designed to short into unsuspecting buyers.
Adage kept just over 10% ownership. I don't think that's by accident. That means they are still required to file for purchases/sales.
I somewhat expect we will see another disposal of shares tied to another form 4 in the short-medium term future that will take them below 10%. The aim is instilling more panic and shaking more shares loose.
If they wanted to buy significantly from under 10%, they'd be required to file the form 4. If they wanted to buy now, they'd be required to file the form 4. So, what other reason could there be for keeping just over 10%?
In short (heh): we're not out of the woods. Expect at least one more upside fakeout if not more.
Give it up, man. The truth is becoming clearer by the day and it's becoming more apparent that we far more likely got played than not. I've asked before and I'll ask again:
1) How did J&E and China learn what they did?
2) Why would you stop if you have skin in the game just because of some forum trolls?
I don't know if you're real or not yet, but the fact that you're still defending them is a testament to what a bang up job they did.
Well, well -- color me surprised. Adage is short after all. "Tin, Catt, Adage doesn't short!" "My buddy said so! He's golden!"
This sale is for one reason and one reason only, as a few others have pointed out:
"Oh no Adage is dumping let's get out of here!!!"
The nuclear option to loosen shares. They've played their hand, and this is the endgame. Definitely don't sell now. As usual, buy warrants and not common stock if you're going to buy.
Anyway, getting closer now. Shall we review some history with this new context?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=133735153
I just figured out the point of the Pearson piece, the purpose of which I couldn't pin earlier some inane reason. It was simply their "excuse" to the public for the appearance of the short position without drawing attention to it. Someone calls bull, shorts seem to agree, nobody is any the wiser. How heavy-handed this looks in retrospect.
On to the next question: how much help did they get from DOC and the BOD? Like I asked yesterday, how is it possible for an entire team of people to "suck" at running a company for so long without one of them suggesting to do the opposite of everything they're doing? I've got a theory for you.
Whoa -- you may have convinced me that covering IS happening with this post.
Nobody sell! Sounds like they're almost done and looking for any scraps they can find!
Ha, I'll believe that when I see it.
These folks love playing loosey-goosey with timelines and I see no reason to trust that they aren't playing loosey-goosey with this one too.
Until such a time that they demonstrably get their act together, I will believe no words that come out of this company's mouth.
That statement is an insult. Thanks for choosing not to worry about long term value until now while continuing to pay yourself fat stacks with our cash.
Wish you could have told us all first so we would have known not to buy yet. Oh wait, they need people to buy in order for Adage to keep making money on the way down.
Way to show your unhappiness by never making an effort to rectify it or even acknowledge it.
Are they stupid, or do they just think everyone else is stupid? Genuinely hard to decide.
Fiduciary duty is a foreign concept to these clowns. They seem to see their investments as a piggy bank rather than see themselves as custodians of trust. Terrible.
i <3 u
Glad to see people are coming around and rejecting the nonsense that gets thrown around in here telling them to wait another 3, 6, 12, 24, 144 months. For things that would have little impact on the price, even, let alone the Big One.
This is my first rodeo in something like this. My next question is, what are our options, our legal options, and when can we start employing them?
These people need their arms twisted. Hard.
The analysts making those price targets all have their heads up their ass. I wouldn't even trust price targets on a good day, let alone in ADXS.
The rationale is simple enough: the only difference between us and analysts is they get paid to make things up and we don't. However fortune tellers get paid to tell fortunes and that doesn't mean they're any good at it either.
Wut. I'm talking about management and the BOD. The SEC should be all over them and all over this ticker like white on rice. I'm 80 grand in the hole on this garbage and suffering like everyone else.
To your point, the misery at some point will turn into outright hilarity. But not with happiness at its core.
What I refuse to believe is that there's any way an ENSEMBLE of people could screw anything up this badly by accident for such a long time without at least one of those people saying "wait a second, is this a good idea?"
It would be good, yes. But that doesn't make it okay.
No, I'll never buy a single share of this ticker again.
I'll make do with the returns from what I already have, or go busto with it. Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me five damn times.
Precisely -- a placement at $5.00 is now a 25% premium and even looks encouraging. The company makes $50M, the shorts get their get-out-of-jail-free card, and on and on.
We'd better not see a placement when the stock sat above $5.00, above $6.00, above $7.00, maybe even above $8.00, for MONTHS after the shelf was authorized. If we do see a placement, any placement at this point -- that all but confirms the foul play theory. And we should march down there with pitchforks.
They did a friggin' great job of shorting at higher prices, I think.
These were the volume weighted averages for each month:
March 2015 - $12.60, 1,180,000 new shorts opened
April 2015 - $18.69, 370,000 new shorts opened
May 2015 - $20.40, 240,000 covered shorts
June 2015 - $22.80, 2,190,000 new shorts opened
July 2015 - $18.26, 1,420,000 new shorts opened
August 2015 - $15.16, 660,000 new shorts opened
September 2015 - $15.63, 1,870,000 new shorts opened
Total change in short interest for this 7-month period: 7,450,000
Thus, the vast majority of the 10M short shares that have been hanging around were opened way up in the upper teens.
Everything since then has just been squeezing money out of those by letting it run occasionally and retracing the downward dollars repeatedly.
As far as the velocity of the downward movement, I wouldn't be surprised if FMR has left the building. They've been shedding tiny amounts for a long time, as if firing warning shots.
Don't count chickens before they hatch, for everyone's sake. We've got a long way to go until Oct 10th to find out anything about anything and another three days of who knows what kind of trading before the cutoff settlement date.
Buy warrants if you're going to buy, not common stock! You're just handing them your money on a silver platter with a bright red ribbon if you buy common stock.
They're sitting on well over $100M profit from the short manipulation thus far. That's $100M they got for free that they can just turn around and use to crush any half-ass attempt to "tighten" any rope. Unless you know people with hundreds of millions on hand, the only option is to wait until they're finished.
Don't bother, Easy's about as real as the boogeyman.
Hurry up and get it over with, Adage.
"Patient investor" -- riiight. See also "we'll make it look like we wait patiently underwater but really we're making money hand over fist on the short side using our 'proprietary trading strategies' sanctioned by the US government".
I regularly rail against all of those things, pay attention.
I'll rail against myself when I'm proven wrong by the company, but I learned long ago not to hold my breath.
You misunderstand me, I think. I'm in agreement with Catt that Adage is responsible for all of the price movements we've seen since December 2014, and they're probably popping champagne, not skunked: the minimum profit for the short entity as of July was about $100M (even without considering the many ups and downs over time which are a huge contributor).
I'd argue (and Catt would too, I presume) that the bonuses at Adage are going to be pretty dope when it comes to this ticker.
Wouldn't be surprised if FMR's presence is on its last legs. They've been trimming tiny amounts over the last few quarters, I like to think of them as warning shots.
It's always "they can't discuss" this or that. They don't even need to say anything that specific. Acknowledge that there's a problem, and acknowledge that you're working on it in a reassuring way that has been calculated to avoid misinterpretation.
"We're going to create shareholder value!"
Even this isn't acknowledging that there's a problem. Creating one cent of shareholder value doesn't fix anything for anyone. We need a restoration of shareholder value first and then we can worry about creation.
We're never told anything of importance or given any answers to legitimate questions. I'm in agreement with you. There were 50,000 things he could have and should have spoken about today and none of them were given any attention.
As usual, I'll take the cynical stance opposite many who are posting. The lack of attention to financial direction tells me they're sitting on a hope and a prayer just like we are. At an "investor conference", the #1 question is going to be "is this worth investing in". By not giving any attention to that, they convey that they don't have an answer and so don't want to call attention to that question.
This was the worst outcome from the presentation if you ask me. Positive news would've been welcome. Negative news would've been hated but also welcome because at least it would clear things up and let us move forward. Instead, we get nothing. Might as well not even have presented, there was nothing discussed that isn't available on the website.
Seriously depressing.
"No news is good news."
Probably works the other way too in certain circumstances.
You're a regular George Carlin. You felt the need to repost this?
Yep, a big wet fart, as expected.
On the bright side, sentiment is so far down in the dumps that the price isn't even reacting.
How many shares? Looks like a big wet fart to me. Probably a big wet fart similar to the one we're in store for in 2 hours unless Lombardo can sing like Steve Jobs.
Before I lay out my honest concerns, for which I'll certainly get crucified as a short, I'll lay out what I think we have going for us first, as I still think this could turn around. Many of my concerns are common concerns among the shareholder population anyway. I don't think it does anybody any good not to discuss and learn from these things to apply in future endeavors. I suspect this may be one of the most difficult investments that many of us will ever encounter in our lives, and that one way or the other the knowledge gained coming out of here as a veteran will prove invaluable in the future.
First, I think a PETX approval would do a lot for shareholder morale and market image, even if it doesn't move the price and/or sales of it are weak. It's a symbolic step forward that has been a long time coming and sits on management's face like a horrendously ugly sore that needs to be burned off to restore some confidence. I wouldn't be surprised if that deal has been forgotten by many and/or considered a foregone conclusion. I consider it a bit of a dark horse.
I also think one of the biggest factors determining what will happen to us will be how tax reform and repatriation plays out. It may be that we haven't been picked up because A) we're yet unproven until interim P3 at earliest, B) BP money may be a little too tight to be taking expensive/late-stage risks on unproven tech, and C) management expects repatriation is inbound and has set a correspondingly elevated price tag on everything to suit which has priced us out. If we don't get tax reform this year, I think our financing options will become much narrower and things might become more dire. Watching that situation anxiously.
As far as the science, I do have some concerns about:
- The statistical AXAL results, which are based on relatively small sample sizes. Just how lucky or unlucky did we get?
- The reasoning behind the decision to discontinue HER2. We've been assured efficacy hasn't been reviewed yet and that it was a financial decision. I don't really know what that means. If it was a home-run, wouldn't the efficacy be at least somewhat self-evident enough from the patient experience without needing to number crunch? Anxiously waiting information on efficacy/clarity on Monday.
- Okay, not stellar, mono PSA results. 4/13 stable disease seems to suggest it's doing something, but I just don't know if it's doing enough. It seems like we've been waiting forever for some semblance of information regarding combo synergy.
- It bothers me that the dose escalations in the mono PSA trial didn't do very much, given how much time and money they've dedicated to dose escalation studies. I don't know whether that concern is misplaced.
As far as management, I have concerns about:
- What skeletons DOC left in the closet, and the jury still being out on whether he left or was fired. I don't trust second-hand information that he supposedly gave to other posters claiming that he was surprised. I wouldn't even trust first-hand information from the man himself if I spoke to him, given we've been paying legal fees for two years and now a settlement over his apparent lack of trustworthiness.
- Where long-term funding will come from, which isn't helping the situation as far as support from the general market.
- A question that arose in my mind today given the relevant discussion is: Why did DOC decide to sell to Adage instead of Knoll? What did Adage say or do to swing it in their favor, and what shady agreements did they make in the process?
- Dead weight on the BOD, the compensation committee, and what role they play from the back room. The compensation committee members, in particular, were singled out in one of the lawsuits while motions against all other management and BOD members were dismissed. The only BOD members not dismissed were the same members that received heavy negatives in the shareholder vote this year.
- How it seems like we're always waiting, waiting, waiting. Management seems to have a propensity to "buy time", consistently miss deadlines, and find every excuse under the sun to shift attention away from present-day questions and affairs, i.e. HER2 is discontinued as part of "restructuring", a whole dimension of biomarker study is opened up as part of the aforementioned "okay, not stellar" mono PSA results, etc.
- How they can be so unbelievably careless when it comes to PR/IR over the last year, including the current veil of silence.
I'd direct you to my first ever post here from back in late July, which outlines a short manipulation theory that connects the dots and which people are sick of hearing about. It might not be 100% correct, but I think parts of it could be in the ballpark. In short, I suspect there's a foul play storyline playing out alongside the science storyline.
I'd go a step further, and say I doubt the order book had 200k shares at the bid not once, but twice, within a span of a few minutes. It reads like a pre-arranged share transfer to me. Problem is you can't tell whether it's good or bad, so I wouldn't try to read into it too much.
It could be good because if someone WAS liquidated, it means shorts or big buyers are sitting at the bid with hidden orders, absorbing whatever shakes loose.
It could be bad because we have a history of seeing these huge trades and no subsequent change in the long-term direction of the price. (Which to me means it's returning ammo to the shorts in preparation for another attack.)
Edit: I guess there's always dark pools. Apparently the associated volume shows up on the regular ticker? I don't really know. While on the topic, does anyone know how to look at dark pool info? I've looked several times and can't find anything.