Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
$10 on 10/22
Also would mean a return of 2900% from today's warrant price.
Lol looks like NTGN is the one doing the coattail riding on ADXS. ADXS price gravity soon to be named by NASA.
Astra doesn't want it and doesn't want the blame so they're in no rush, Advaxis doesn't want Astra so they're in no rush. Like the first hold, the longer the hold the more damage to the data. Fewer trials means more cash.
Sounds like a nice recipe for leaving it held and abandoning the trial and finding a crappy reason to be the scapegoat instead, if you ask me. "Yeah we said we would try to get the hold lifted but Astra/FDA/my dog was unresponsive and it affected the data so we've decided to cancel it."
Do trials get abandoned following a hold or is there some legal mandate that the hold be resolved?
Which news? The NEO dosing that never happened (or has it)? "Warrants further study" (warrants further undefined expense)? Vaguely written statistical material that the street doesn't care about because they want meaty headlines and big numbers? I'm not selecting a damn thing. And sometimes we don't even get the news from them but from some other source, like that manufacturing subcontractor.
Defend the company all you like, but how this all isn't a total breach of fiduciary duty to current shareholders, foundation for the future or not, is completely beyond me.
Not sure what you're going for here, but it's much ado about nothing. None of that has mattered one iota per the one and only metric that actually counts. I could even be a real jerk and say it's hurt more than it's helped by that same metric.
Yeah, I know. Can you blame me for feeling quite jaded, though? Piercing the cone of silence is only the sounds of grants and money flying out the window.
Only news I see is yet more money being given away for free. Sick of the constant free awards for every reason under the sun without anything to ever offset losses for shareholders.
Let's see some ACTUAL news, please. How long has it been now...?
Has it ever been the case that a hold just stays a hold indefinitely until the trial is ended because neither party is interested in sinking any more money into the collaboration?
To be fair, many of us don't want optimism, we want cold hard facts and results. A million units of optimism can't even buy a bag of chips.
3M of the 4.7M covered since mid Feb was settled by 2/28 and during two reporting periods of 1.7M average daily volume. The news of the hold and the dilution muddied things up perfectly so there's too much noise to say one way or the other.
Even still, if we assume all of this stuff came out of the dilution and add up the covered shares and what we've seen from Blackrock and Renaissance, that only brings us to 6M and change. Where's the rest?
I'd be more inclined to think they were used to cover if almost half the shares weren't still unaccounted for. But we're living in a weird bizarro world now.
When are we expecting to hear something about PSA? Lost track.
Is the quiet period still on?
Were they a 5% owner before the dilution? Seems like they're consistently right under the 5% line. Am I right in thinking they must've added this during or after the dilution otherwise it would've triggered a filing?
That would depend on whether the company is in on it. That page says "the board's consent" and as we know the board is real iffy here and things haven't been making a whole lot of sense for a long time.
Let go of management and give them maximum vest for maximum dilution (defense), hire new people with huge sign on bonuses (defense) and bonuses for change of control (defense)?
Something something nepotism Sidransky and Berlin, too. Maybe Berlin got stiffed in the ROSG acquisition and is getting a second chance for a payday here?
Anyway, mostly playing devil's advocate.
I say defense up there but maybe it's also just out of spite to make it more expensive if the takeover is hostile and can't be stopped at this point.
Any thoughts on a creeping tender offer/takeover scenario? I read here once that certain situations warrant looser ownership filing requirements, but I didn't catch any details or whether it's even true. Anyone know how that works? Could the recent dilution have been a defensive measure instead of a bottom of the barrel capital raise? The constant suppression seems to fit the bill, as does the high short interest if it was being used as a hedge? If the process is largely complete, then the short position would be closed out.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creeping-tender-offer.asp
Also if the shorts are in total control and are waiting for dilution this fall at $1, why bother covering now? Something doesn't add up. It reeks a bit of hostile takeover but I'm really not familiar with how that usually goes, and specifically what role market makers have in that activity.
See "creeping tender offer".
Hmm I don't know if I buy it... Those flippers had a very small window before the stock dove under the offering price and cancelled out any profit. I'd have to review but I don't think there was enough volume during that window for the majority of the 10M to get dumped for profit. If that's the case they're selling for a loss which brings us back to "so who's buying it all?"
I'm of the opinion that the impact of flippers is overstated here. I think the collapse velocity, weak bounces, and threat of continued collapse would scare most away.
Haha they got rekt
Edit: though I guess we did too and even worse, just on paper so far...
Haha we got rekt
Also the nads on these guys, calling them a "healthcare specialist". Don't they dabble in anything/everything?
They've had a tendency to not name names, but they usually have acknowledged a class, at least. Back during the Amgen deal dilution, they said some junk like "healthcare specialist investor" or something. We didn't even get that this time.
Did we ever figure out who that was? I don't recall.
How early do they usually announce investor and analyst day? Last year it took place on 6/12. Still nothing on the events calendar for this.
Edit nevermind it looks like they wait until mid May.
Anyone know roughly when the filing dates would be that show where the dilution shares landed?
Glancing over the institutional filings since January, it's been almost entirely selling and very minor buys except just one or two firms. Where are all these disposed and issued shares going? I find it hard to believe retail buying is behind it considering retail hates this place. If they're being returned to lenders to cover, who are the lenders that have so much to lend? The list of big holders is pretty small these days.
Is it possible for market makers to scrape shares off the market on behalf of an acquirer if asked? If so, can that be done without being noticed, i.e. no filings? Was the high short interest their way of hedging this activity while this was being done? When a company is acquired for X billion, does that take into account what they got on the cheap prior to the announcement, or is it just the overall valuation, i.e. we get bought out for X billion but the acquirer only paid 20% of that to collect the remaining shares?
Is this J&E's fabled "share grab"?
Illumina hasn't seen the prices you mentioned since early-mid 2000s shortly following their IPO. The chart looks remarkably healthy aside from that period despite those dips. Nice parabolic spikes with expected retraces and generally higher highs and higher lows.
These two aren't remotely the same.
The max timeline chart for Advaxis looks like a 500 pound dude has been sitting and rolling around on it for more than a decade. Newton could have formed his theory of gravity based on it.
So what you're saying is we're still within 3-4 years of our IPO?
Lol these aren't even firings that involve severance. Just some backroom "agreement" that can't be known by anyone in advance. A lot of good filings and regulations do if you can just pull this stuff out of your ass without explanation or notice.
I've never gotten a reward for quitting any job other than returned PTO. What's all this about getting years' worth of shares and RSUs and many months' salary?
"Hey, wait, why don't you take some money before you go?" Maybe I should swing by the office, sounds like they might have a basket of money by the front desk instead of mints.
I take great issue with the outgoing gifts. That's zero ROI money set on fire that the company simply doesn't have. That's multiple times in the last year now that these kinds of costs have been incurred. It's absolutely ridiculous.
Yeah, if you look at it in a vacuum. But how many people get to wet their beak on our dime before we do? Where is any proof that investors should tolerate (blindly, mind you) a boneheaded strategy that apparently involves a near full turnover of management plus giving gifts both in and out the door?
Next up we'll hear the 5 "disappeared" execs have been replaced with a new crew with juicy comp packages and the outgoing crew gets free goodies too.
This shit is on the BOD. They clearly don't have any considerable skin in this game. Raid the coffers every chance they get. Sidransky, want my bank login too?
Lol what's the point of stuff that vests over x years when the company just gives everyone immediate vesting on the way out the door?
What a great place to work.
Pretty sad day for warrant holders. One of very very few outs just became a lot less likely.
What do we have left? Pretty much pin our hopes on a manipulated run out of nowhere. I'm thinking it's not very likely Lombardo was doing much negotiating only to transfer control halfway through. That likely puts us near the beginning of negotiations that usually take how long to work out, a couple of months? Warrants don't have that kind of time.
Disappointing is an understatement.
So do we know how much free shit we gave these guys up front? Is this what the cash raise was for?
Er... Do we have any idea what stock issuance?
With a disposal of 11,000? What was the base? When? Wtf lol
Or was this just vesting after a year?
If Amgen has been stealth accumulating for some time, how long would it be before some filing requirements forcibly make that known? I can see them saying "hey, stfu don't make this more expensive than it has to be".
Maybe this is about cornering as many shares as they can on the market cheaply and then buying out the remainder? Do MMs provide that sort of service?
Fake volume would hide that most shares aren't changing hands anymore pretty effectively.
Can you (and others with extremely long holds if so inclined) share a bit about how your investment here came to be? How'd you find out about the company, what drew you in at such an early stage, why'd you stick around with so little data, etc.?
Always been curious about the old-timer stories from an investment strategy point of view. I didn't jump on the bandwagon until hypefest 2015 so have little knowledge about earlier years.
Maybe because our deal was signed in 2016, so it was probably more pertinent to that year's summary.
Waiting hopefully with the rest of the subscribers to it because as a warrant holder I don't have much other choice. I'm not terribly convinced either way, but all the strange things that have happened over the last year coupled with the receding short position makes it compelling.
It bothers me that the price is still falling, but maybe that too is part of the cover play. Providing a negative (price drop) to offset the positive (short interest drop) while the covering occurs.
You're killing me.
Doing a good job of it though.
Dunno but Sellas has a market cap of $23.5M so not expecting anything particularly earthshattering out of that.
When is the shareholder meeting? My Google fu is horribly off its game today.
Vote with your gut IMO. It's been impossible to consistently pin this company's plans down over the years. A vote no could be just as bad as a vote yes for reasons unforeseen and vice versa.
You'll have an easier time moving past your losses if your choice is your own and you were wrong than if your choice was someone else's and you were wrong.
IMO.
You framed this in a bit of a misleading way. Noelle said they have no current plan to extend the warrants, which is not to say that they won't as you've framed it in this post. They won't say that they will extend at this stage; what would be the point of buying shares that cost 5x the warrants if there is no perceived risk attached to the warrants?
We probably wouldn't hear about an extension until very close to the expiration date.
Vote whatever helps you sleep better IMO.
Those PTs are nothing more than the flip side of what they used to be. Before they were set high to trap buyers, now they're set low to trap sellers.
Manipulation flip incoming.
30% takes it.
Now where's Adage with their big buy... Maybe by Friday?
Odds we see a big form 4 buy from Adage in the next few days?
I give it... 75%.
(It's nice to dream and/or hit the peace pipe.)