It is about time ERHE comes back to life.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
We already have twice the daily average volume and only 2 hours into the trading day. Anyone besides oilphant want to guess what's going on?
I am waiting for the flippers to exit for the weekend....you may leave now (and drop the price). LOL
If you're willing to sell em', yup. LOL
ok, I upped my buy to just under the bid... come on down!
Looking for sellers...
I have been aquiring recently and would like to continue. Who is willing to start the year end tax-loss selling? LOL
Where is BOFA when you need her?
LMAO Lugheads, that was precious. Thanks for the humor.
wzebra33, if one was trying to increase their holding here, what to the charts say about this downtrend and a good possible entry point (being that I am not a chartist).
Strategyone
I am one of the 112.....just cause he's membermarked doesn't mean I drink his coolaid....LOL
Overhaul of website is very professional and well done IMHO. Thank you ERHE (whoever was responsible).
CC Summary with Opinions:
Overall - about exactly what I expected. It is a cc not a press release. No earth shattering new news (which is how it should be). Some great nuggets for official confirmation of items most shareholders already knew or have speculated on. Some perfectly handled side stepping as can be expected. Some putting to rest of bad rumors.
My five take a-ways:
1) I was impressed with the attorney representation regarding ongoing investigations. Of course they can't say anything but the fact that he was on the conference call and coming from a firm with a great reputation gave it less of a "Nigerian" feeling. He also spoke well of talking with the lead congressman etc. so I feel like we have the right man for the job. Second huge point that he did NOT have to share with us is when he talked about the inquiry having NO ground to take away any rights. I knew it, you knew it but we all needed a Lawyer representing ERHE to say it to squash the doomsayers and bashers. That also can't hurt for potential new investors or institutional investors to have on record.
2) We are no where close to hiring a new CEO (or COB for that matter), which is actually good news. We don't need anyone different than the acting one right now. Let's get closer to drilling before we make any moves and it also allows for the most flexibility (maybe a buy in in the future with representation on the board or officer core).
3) Essentially, there are no significant offers for a buy in or buyout on the table for signing in front of Nicolae. I have been a part of several M&A's from both sides. NO one can say anything about them until there is a Letter of Intent or more. The other main factor here is that SEO would have been the person that any offer came to and this leaves Nicolae able to say there is no current buy in or buyout being looked at (by him).
4) HUGE nugget for me was the way they said ERHE gets FIRST picks in the STP EEZ. I had already conceded in my mind that we were down to 3, 4 or 5. This could end up being the most significant factor for share price appreciation before now and drilling. If STP wants to put out to bid the blocks in their EEZ sometime towards the end of 2007 or first half of 2008 (rumors bantered around), ERHE should have already gotten their pick of blocks before they go out to the public. Two 100% blocks are going to be hugely significant and should be relatively easy to negotiate with ONE other partner to do the work. Think of how much extra cash ERHE received from their 30% or less JDZ rights and still got full carry.....
5) The best immediate news nugget for me was the discussion around the 9% block 4 piece coming back. I had pretty much written that chunk off as either being worthless to ERHE or not likely being given up by Godsonic. It sounded to me that they are planning on negotiating with Addax the split and value of that 9% coming back. It sounds to me that ERHE has the "rights" to that full 9% and how it gets disseminated. I would have thought that the 9% comes back proportionate to every party involved giving a very little fraction to ERHE to then negotiate full carry on. To me that would have been insignificant.
Now the Stock price reaction. PERFECT! There were unsubstantiated rumors that created a perfect opportunity for the share price to react as it has. The only thing that would have supported or lifted the share price in my opinion was news of a prospective buy in or buyout which I don't really want until we are closer to drilling results. I suspect ERHE bounces up from the mid to lower twenties in the next couple days or weeks and then hovers somewhere in the thirties. Pure speculation on my part. I am waiting for the accent into EEZ news or drilling mid year next year.
There is no doubt in my mind that the stepping down of SEO was a precursor to something bigger yet to be announced. I will not speculate what that bigger item is or when it will become public but there is no other logical explanation for this action at this time.
Good Luck all,
Strategyone
Revenue Stream revisited:
I am no oil patch expert but I do remember discussions at length over a year ago about:
Revenue from the oil that first comes up gets split by a formula into "cost oil", "profit oil" and I think something else. I recall Meridian discussing the details. I think it is very common in the oil patch to divide the revenue of oil this way to allow the country's that lease the rights to start receiving revenue as soon as the oil comes up also.
Maybe someone else can expand with facts?
Start your swoopin', LOL.
Angry,
Not trying to make you angrier, but could you be a little more clear on what your source is speculating without letting the cat out of the bag?
For example, would this source be speculating that the share price will be dropping at the end of July for a "buying opportunity" (of which I don't need any more). Or would this source be speculating that some good news will be publically announced towards the end of July?
Thanks in advance for your clarity and sharing.
The original deal between ERHC and STP had the 10% profit oil going to ERHC. That was renegotiated and is no longer the case. If it was it would be in the current SEC filings for ERHE which it is not.
Here is a footnote in an earlier published link:
"105. According to the old 2001 contract, ERHC/Chrome had the option to acquire a 15% interest in up to two oil blocs of ERHC’s choice in the Joint Development Zone (JDZ). The new 2003 contract gave ERHC/Chrome a 14% stake in nine especially promising oil blocks in the JDZ. Therefore, while ERHC/Chrome will not automatically receive part of the government’s petroleum taxation, the company will have a stake in all oil blocks in the JDZ. From an oil company’s point of view, this is very favourable in that risk is diversified. If you only have a stake in two oil blocks and they strike no oil, you go empty-handed. With a stake in nine blocks, your chance of striking oil in at least some of them gives a much better likelihood for a steady flow of future revenue. "
If I recall correctly, STP had the first three 100% which they then gave 2 of those 3 to PGS for seismic studies. ERHE is left with the 4th and 5th block selection followed by a licensing round including ERHE 15% choice in two of those blocks.
I still can't figure out where or how EEL is claiming 2 100% blocks. I thought I remembered some issue from long ago that the EEL blocks and the ERHC blocks were the same two blocks and it related back to the original deal when STPetrol existed and then broke up. I still think there will be some legal delays and issues for the EEZ rights. Hopefully, it will be delayed until after ERHE starts drilling in the JDZ to provide less impact to the share price then...
If anyone has any update on the EEL/ERHE blocks please post.
Strategyone
Oh Yeah, well I called a little birdie and it told me that EEL is doing a reverse merger (takeover) of Exxon/Mobil. Exxon is allowing the takeover because they are sick and tired of loosing to EO and now they will get their 2 100% picks before Offor in the STP EEZ. Well, actually, Exxon won't but EEL will but that's besides the point. XOM was also tired of being pressured by the US congress for making so much money and they decided their reserves would be valued higher on the London Stock exchange, so they said "were all in" (for the merger).
Now, someone help me out with the math. How many shares of EEL will need to be issued to give to the XOM shareholders?
Happy Friday everyone.
I didn't know what to expect and I am not planning on selling shares any time soon but the Friday volume and price spike on no news was eerily similar to old days of insiders (most likely in Nigeria) picking up shares before news breaks. Usually, it was the day before or the day of a PR release though.
Maybe a deal relating to EEL is in the works and yesterdays EEL PR gave another week for the time table... Who knows.
Back to work. Wake me up when we break .60
This is pathetic. For over a month the price held between .34 and .35 with varying volume. We have one day of "fun" with just over 2 million in volume, a nice price spike up to .42 and now the price is back to .35 already. So much for that fun.
I would agree. Since no PR came out right after the close (which I hate seeing on Friday anyway), I would much prefer a PR in the morning on Monday either before the open or right after the open.
GLTA
5 more minutes and then I expect to see the news out. What will it be?
Today's pattern has been very similar to historical days when all of a sudden we see big change in volume and price preceeding the news release after the close.
dest_golf, I will be curious to see the news. ERHE must be getting news within a day or two and if indeed, ERHE has acquired, merged, bought into a "owns a producing well" as Oily stated today (very boldly I might add) then I would say Oily does indeed have some type of connection to the inside (albeit not always correct).
Keep in mind, Oily did not just say ERHE won some Nigerian EEZ block because that would be easy to guess or speculate on, he said "owns a producing well". If this turns out to be the news that comes out then he has ears somewhere near this particular negotiating table.
We will see.
Just hit .42 I'm starting to have fun. More looking forward to the news.
Will there be enough crow pie to go around?
Question for the board: Since when did Addax Petrolium become a "Nigerian Company"? This is the second time this week I saw this statement. I know it is listed in Canada but why do they claim it's Nigerian?
Although I would love to see a PR with a new CEO hire from some notable Oil firm, I am also in no hurry. ERHE should not be in a hurry either.
ERHE currently sells no widgets. They have no production about to start. They have no immediate need to begin a different direction (beyond what we all wish they would do).
Take a moment and think about what would have happened if WB was still happily employed and he had started his road show last year as we all wished he would have. There would have been a lot of hot air and wishful thinking spread around that may have temporarily boosted the share price. Then, I suspect, we would have drifted to current levels, if not lower, due to failed expectations.
Unfortunately, ERHE is a product of reality. ERHE has a lot, and I mean A LOT of great things to look forward to. It is still a matter of TIME when some of these "things" can materialize to dramatically change the current valuation of the stock.
We are waiting on STP to begin the process of auctioning their EEZ blocks for which ERHE should get their 2 100% blocks prior to the bidding process. As history has proven itself in this neighborhood, STP will not likely meet their "Fall of 2007" goal (IMHO). For STP to get the best or even reasonable bids from the big players, they will need to get new and better seismic studies done. I have not heard firm dates on this yet. So we wait.
The world supply of Deep Water drill ships is very limited and scheduled one to several years out currently. ERHE at least is now on a schedule but not till 2nd half 2008. Yes, we all wish for earlier drilling and it could happen but big new money is not going to invest on a wish and a prayer. So we wait.
ERHE is waiting on whether SEO or Ledbetter find another opportunity for ERHE to go after prior to needing a new CEO, IMHO. So we wait.
Any Buy in/out that may be in the works must be kept under wraps as best as possible for the benefit of both ERHE and the prospective Buy in/out partner. We have heard the rumors but due to the above mentioned time tables, ERHE and more likely prospective suitors are in no hurry to consummate the deal. So we wait.
The Nigerian election is now over, at least the reminance of an election that took place is. Now the world waits to see if the results of said election will hold or if more turmoil takes place. May 29th is the scheduled turnover date for Nigerian presidential power. Many of us wished SEO needed to raise cash to continue his political power contributions prior to the election. I guess he found the money elsewhere. So now we wait for the next crisis or opportunity to change the time table to oil.
It is hard to wait, especially when the share price is drifting. Some day the ERHE ship will come in. I know I am ready for it to come in NOW. I wish and hope for it to come in soon. We all just need to wait.
Sorry I have no great news or incite or rumor to share but I do have the confidence in my due diligence here that the ERHE value will one day be recognized and I am fairly certain it will be many multiples above the current valuation. At least some of the time tables have been set. It will happen. We just need to wait.
Good luck all.
Another tie between Emeka Offor and newly elected President:
The newly elected president has a late brother for which a foundation was set up to continue his good works - "Shehu
Musa Yar’Adua Foundation"
Sir Emeka Offor is a "Platinum Contributor" (N10Million and above) which is the highest level of contribution. He is one of six individual contributors at this level, along with other corporate and governmental groups contributing. Ironically, one of the other six individuals at this level was Atiku Abubakar.
Link:
http://www.yaraduacentre.org/yaranew/reports/Annual%20Report-FINANCE.pdf
Good News, in case anyone was wondering if EO still has political influence with the newly elected President of Nigeria.....
"I am of the strong opinion that Obasanjo has something to hide, and he is of the view that Mr. Yar'Adua would be the best bet to cover his tracks for him. As we all know, Obasanjo and Yar'Adua's late brother were buddy buddies...
He has successfully made himself the de-facto leader of PDP. He calls the shots. He hijacked PDP from Atiku's hands with the help of Tony Anenih, Emeka Offor and Andy Uba."
This from the following link :
http://chxta.blogspot.com/2007/02/obj-factor.html
Looks like Emeka Offor will continue working his political power into the new regime.
In the past week there have been a lot of shares traded compared to several months ago when ERHE would drift lower on very few shares traded. At that time the MM's could do what they pleased with the pps of ERHE with very little volume and because of this lack of volume, there was no pressure to change the direction the MM's were taking the pps.
Lately, there has been way too much volume for absolutely no change in pps (between .34 and .35). This to me tells me someone or several "ones" are either picking up or dumping a large quantity of stock with the HELP of a or several MM's to prevent price movement.
I have worked with the High Net Worth in the investment business for over 10 years now and we do this all the time. It is the only way we get in or get out of a position of any size. It takes help to do it and I don't think individual investors have the "relationships" or dollar value to move in or out of a position in that manner.
I can not tell which way (in or out) this recent volume is going (which is how the professional firms do it). If it was a street investor trying to pick up or dump a million shares or more, the MM's would have a field day with volatility.
I do not get the impression of any panic and the quantity isn't that large relative to the outstanding shares to create any concern in my decision to hold.
My feeling is that it may be some large holders that utilize a trading firm, reducing there position in light of the upcoming election in Nigeria, creating an increased "unknown" certainty around Offor's continued influence. I bet that these people are betting on a short term drop in the price with the potential turmoil that might get created from this election. If it doesn't happen, they will re-enter their full position without much harm as we are a long ways out from drilling results.
JUST MHO.
Good luck all
brutal pic wzebra33!
OT: Tap... you probably cleared your cookies? The cookie is what tracks and changes the color of the messages you have read. This is only stored on the pc that you read them from. Your login ID tracks the "number" of unread messages through the IHub website. Therefore, if you read messages from a work computer and then go home and log on to a different computer, the "number" of unread messages will be correct but the highlighting of the read messages (at work) will not be correct.
I am half expecting Oily to come out and say the BD has already been drilling 4 holes at once and the chatter is that they hit 2800' pay...LOL
Come on guys, why you giving oily such a bad time..... he didn't say Thursday of this year......LOL.
Good luck all
Someone unloaded a very specific amount in one lump. Someone probably had an all or nothing order in and the past two days the MM's probably had to purchase the supply to cover that sell. Still a pretty tight trading area which leads me to believe this was not an insider.
LOL, that's it.. tell it how it is. Thanks for the morning laugh. EOM
agreed exceo. It may be more productive to send a request to ERHE's contracted PR firm.
This is at least solid news that they can perform their magic on and they should be the ones pressuring the management team at ERHE to get good news out. Besides, I am sure they get paid hourly for this type of work (I would think) so it also benefits them. Win/Win/Win Shareholder informed/share price increase/PR firm paid
amj23, as proof from the Equator pr today, ERHE can and should pr the Rig contract since it has been inked and is material to ERHE.
I am not jumping up and down saying we need to start shareholder lawsuits but I don't disagree with the notion. I also don't expect a sudden surge in price due to ERHE pr'ing this news. It is a year out and I think the sudden surge in price we are all hoping for will need other news than this. I am very glad to see this news but I was hoping for 2007 drilling on all three blocks.
I wonder how much of ERHE's cash they used to buy out Chevron? LOL
So, when does it start and when does the world find out?
chcr,
You had better re-read your post to Electick. You obviously have something personal against this person and you yourself put in a personal attack (albeit tame) in the last statement to him. So, if you are going to be as extreme as you always state to the board, you had better delete your own message.
For the record, neither Electick or chcr's messages were bad enough to be deleted (IMHO) but since chcr has the board authority to sensor Electick when he posted something negetive about her, then it should be only fair to not allow personal attacks from chcr.
I vote for you to leave your message on and put Electick's back in. Electick provides some very good information which I have found relavant, factual and worth reading.
Please reconsider your actions.
Strategyone
Stocks2rise, If ERHE hits $1,681 per share I will be able to retire.......LOL
Nice that they updated us but it says absolutely nothing. I guess that is reflected in the flat share price since Ledbetters arrival.
We need news of a new hire, or drilling plans THIS YEAR in blocks 2,3 or 4.
Another fortmonth I guess.
The following article doesn't sound like ExxonMobil is pulling out of the Nigerian region anytime soon:
Nigeria payday for WorleyParsons
By Upstream staff
WorleyParsons has been awarded a contract worth about US$220 million to support a portfolio of ExxonMobil's projects offshore Nigeria.
The Sydney-based company said the five-year engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCM) services contract involves upgrades and expansion of Mobil Producing Nigeria's offshore facilities and pipelines.
“This is an important achievement that will allow WorleyParsons to further invest in the development of local Nigerian resources, it reinforces our commitment to Nigeria and to the provision of our Asset Integrity and Business Improvement Services core offering to clients,” said WorleyParsons chief executive John Grill.