Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I agree with this. Arguing about the HCV results is useless, especially since PPHM wouldn't give the results. To me, this is negative, others somehow make it out as a positive. The real answer will be when and if they partner it, and for what. 10,20,30,40 or $50mm may be peanuts for bp, but they wont spend it on crap. If somebody doesn't step up and pay some "peanuts" amount for this possible multi-billion dollar platform, there is your answer on BAVI-HCV. Will know soon. I'm hoping for the best but am not optimistic about HCV. I do know PPHM is going nowhere without non-dilutive money from some source.
It's simple. PPHM very much wants to partner BAVI for HCV. PPHM has information (that they won't share with us) on how BAVI performs against HCV. PPHM needs money (badly). If it gets partnered in the next few months, BAVI-HCV has a future. If not, it does not, in my opinion. This one is easy. We should know soon. If PPHM starts another trial on it's own, forget it, all done for HCV.
That is seriously what you got out of that pr with no numbers. Wow. I got that the numbers at twelve weeks were so comparativley bad that they wouldn't even give them to us. Better at twelve weeks than at four or eight weeks, big deal. They won't give us the numbers at four or eight weeks either. Better than awful could still be awful. They gave us nothing today.
If you want to see if this trial was a success, see if anyone forks over any money for BAVI-HCV in the near future, ie months, not years. If not, it was a failure. No need to wait for some medical conference that they "plan" to present at sometime in 2012. In my opinion, they ran this trial in hopes of good enough results to monetize BAVI-HCV. As of now, we don't know. Judging by the tone of that PR, I'm not optimistic. It's silly to say "they said nothing good, they must have a partner lined up." Maybe they said nothing good because there was nothing good to say. Planning on presenting at some undisclosed conference at some undisclosed time in 2012 equals nothing.
Could they be any less specific? I don't know how anyone could take anything positive from this PR. It's safe. It's better tolerated than PEG-INF. Did anyone doubt that. No idea how less effective it is. Could be quite a bit. Looks like they are looking to give it to anybody that wants to pursue it further and see what happens. No money in the near future from this. Maybe Cotara. If no money from partnering Cotara in the next six months or so, huge dilution and no upward pps. This was a swing and a miss in my opinion. PPS will likely end up down.
They seem to overlook, or ignore, the person that's designing these trials and his history of success. I would like to see them and the other naysayers, such as DD, address that. What do they think these ex-Genentech employees are doing here? Only out for a paycheck? Maybe I put too much significance in that. Maybe it doesn't mean that much at all, but I don't think that's the case.
You understand that an announcement or two that would increase the pps by a factor of 5 or 8 would have to involve money to begin with. If we get to $5 or $8, our near term money situation would be solved already.
A meeting scheduled with the FDA for Cotara, or good phase II results for Bavi aren't moving the pps to 5 or 8. It would have to be money/partner related.
I'm not real sure how to take this $1.11 bulk sale. I figured it either to be a favor to friends to get them in, or a panick move because trial enrollments were falling further behind. Either way is not good, but I assumed it was the first, and now I'm more sure of it. I just don't see any abrupt need for $6m. I'm hoping this signals the end of the line for this type of thing. I'm picking up a few more shares at these prices to get to a round number, and then I'm done. Been in for five plus years and I'm underwater like everyone else, but a market cap of $400m to 500m would give me a nice return thanks to all of the averaging down.
Despite the pps dive and this financing, they still haven't failed on the science side of anything. Delayed some maybe.
It looks like they try to keep the cash balance at around $20m. Without a sp increase, there will be between 75m and 80m os at December 31. They plan to meet with the FDA, hopefully by then, get a clear pathway and timeline for Cotara, and then partner with those two knowns. That appears to be the plan. I hope it is and I hope it works. If not, they will be bleeding shares for years before they get anything through on their own.
Dilution of 17,000,000 shares last year. Haven't seen cash flow statement, but I'm sure it was for less than $40m. Previous year dilution was 7,000,000 shares for $25m. Hope something changes soon. Yikes.
Maybe not. I thought they may have taken a flyer or two about partnering deals, but we don't know. If they were are reasonably attainable then I think 50% stinks. Then again, so does $1.85.
It would be nice to know what the milestones were and which four were achieved and which four were not achieved. I would have to guess that the four that were not achieved were financial. Setting the bar pretty low, achieve 50% of your goals and receive 80% of you restricted stock award. It's difficult to tell however, whithout knowing what the milestones were. Some may have not been realistically attainable.
So you're suggesting they should have diluted the company enough last year, prior to the financial statements being issued, to make the auditors comfortable with cash on hand? That would have gone over well. Stock would have soared for sure. There is a going concern because the cash on hand plus revenue can not cover expenses for a year.
Exactly. The anouncements of more trials than we could possibly afford would lead me to believe something is up. I don't believe that AVID is going to start printing cash or that there is some imminent govt. stockpiling deal. Hope it's more than a rumor. Pieces seem to be in place.
Not likely to happen like that, but it is realistic to think that a BP would buy a stake in the company and then buy them out down the road. Just buying a stake in the company would give us cash and a much higher current MC.
What I hope they're thinking is partnership, at some level, for Cotara. Up front money in the $20m - $30m range would get the sp to $8 - $10. They could then get to the end of the Bavi phase II's without a boatload of dilution. Depending on those results, the sp could really take off. Maybe I'm delusional, that up front money may not be realistic.
The pps is where it is because nobody sees anything happening soon. There will likely be close to 75m os by the time time the phase IIb is complete. If a phase III is not necessary, the pps will soar, if it is, I think we would definitely have to partner to get it done. There doesn't seem to be any serious attempts to partner now. As we get closer to the end of the IIb trial (12/2011?), the pps should be significantly higher, hopefully $10 - $15. That is if nothing goes wrong. There is likely plenty of time for people to get in before a significant PPS increase. I think we will renew the govt. contract and get some interim results news, possibly some IST's, that should get the pps to $3-$4 by year-end. I think anybody expecting much more than this will be disappointed.
Those market caps are unrealistic with the cash we have and are able to generate currently with Avid. There would need to be some type of partnership or collaberation with a legitimate pharma, with upfront cash. Hopefully that happens this year.
On a different topic, I think the company knows what they need to do to get the Going Concern clause removed and will get it done this year. That is about cash also. They sold enough shares to get the cash necessary.
There is a date on the bottom of the Auditor's Report. Anything that is material up to that date is fair game. A subsequent event that was material, up to the date of the Auditor's Report, would go in the footnotes and could affect the Auditor's Report and opinion. It would not be included in the financial information which is up through April 30th. It wouldn't make sense for the auditors to ignore a partnership deal that was finalized on May 30th, if the audit wasn't finalized until July 10th.
I agree with Jake and ysfalconeer, the going concern is a big issue until the auditors decide it isn't. I'm pretty sure it gets removed this year. I'm not sure what they need for cash to get it removed from the Auditor's Report, likey $25 million or so. They don't necessarily have to have all the cash at April 30th. If they did some financing or partnering deal after April 30th and before the audit is issued, the auditor's would look at this subsequent event and use it in deciding on the going concern issue. I think PPHM management would prefer to have the cash on hand necessary at April 30th though.
EZ, I would agree with that. Of course that's setting the bar pretty low comparing them to our previous financiers.
I didn't listen to the conference call, and I just now glanced at the financials. I think that they may have been paid $3mm on the government contract, where $1.3mm was booked as revenue and the other $1.7mm is deferred revenue. Other deferred revenue increased by $4.3mm since April. All of this deferred revenue, along with the decrease in A/R, is why cash went down only $1.8mm this quarter. The third quarter income statement will look a lot better, but it wont translate into a bunch of cash. Much of the cash was collected before the work was done and is in deferred revenue.
ysfalconeeer, it is actually a going concern, not an ongoing concern. It means that the auditors, as of the date of the audit report, had substantial doubt about PPHM making it through the next fiscal year. Whatever damage caused by that paragraph is done. It will never be removed from that audit report. The company needs to show that, as of the date of the next audit report, there is not substantial doubt. For PPHM that means they need to show that they have cash to get through the year, or the likely ability to earn that cash. imo
I'll assume you're kidding about the Duke data and lawsuit results.
They will need funding from somewhere within the next two months or they will likely receive a "going concern" paragraph in their April 30 audited financials. They know this, and they do not want a qualified opinion in their audit report. The auditors will not care about bavi's or cotara's potential or how many "talks" management is having with bp or an ib. There will be some form of funding in the next two months, let's hope it's not a PIPE. The fact that they have enough money to run a couple of small phase 1C's is irrelevant. Terry is correct, money is absolutely necessary and soon.
Agarn
Jakedog, the only thing that will have a sustained, positive effect on the pps is news of how any upcoming trials will be funded. They could announce all of the trials and preliminary results they want, but people need to know how they plan to move forward financially. Absent funding news, we go nowhere.
Agarn
Steve, data may move the stock incrementally and temporarily. For a serious and sustained move in the pps, PPHM needs to show how they plan on funding the future trials for Hep C, HIV and especially cancer. Until then the pps will never move significantly. Despite what the CEO stated, it still looks like a PIPE to most. If investors truly believed that some sort of funding was going to come from bp, the pps would not be at a buck. Should know in the next 2-4 months.
Agarn
cj, regarding burn rate. You left out the $1.2m from the options in the beginning of Novemeber which would put the quarterly burn at $4.5m.
Agarn
Jake, was that the post where you claimed PPHM needed to do a PIPE by January 31st in order to have one years cash on hand to avoid a "Going Concern" statement on their quarterly(unaudited) financial statements? That statement is incorrect. Going Concerns are not put on quarterly, unaudited statements. They may do a PIPE soon, but it will certainly not be for the reason that you stated. I can not think of any positive scenarios for funding before data at these pps levels. Data is too close, and funding is not necessary for months. A PIPE before data is bad.
Agarn
Jazz, you were correct about Jake and his ridiculous "Going concern" scenario as a reason for a PIPE at this time. Going concerns are not part of a quarterly unaudited financial statement, they only apply to audited (annual) financial statements. PPHM would have until audited financial statements are presented in June or July to comply with cash requirements.
What is it that you are expecting from this China situation in the near future from PPHM? Money, validation, or both. I am not expecting anything, this was all before I invested here. I wouldn't mind a nice surprise, but the market sure doesn't look like it is expecting one.
I believe that PPHM has four to six months before financing is necessary and their should be lots of news/data by then. The pps is disconcerting however
BOT, while it may be true that PPHM can not book the revenue until the product is shipped, if they receive cash at the beginning and middle of these runs it will show up immediately as deferred revenue and cash. We should be able to see something in the quarter that the production commences. Cash on hand is more important than revenues at this stage for PPHM.
March or April is further out than I originally anticipated for top-line cancer data. Unfortunately, all evidence is pointing towards another PIPE in the first couple of months of 2007, imo.
I never bought into the stealth accumulation theory, numbers dont show it.
Agarn