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Knowing the milestones would be nice, but they are not going to share that information, they already indicated that by the 9 * in the annual report.
My guess is non are close. Bavi is far, far, far from any type of commercialization. Based on it's history I say it never gets there.
Is it worse to stick your head in the sand about a loser potential drug, or write post after post after post, year after year after year about conspiracies and connections and everything else under the sun, that are nothing but pipe dreams?
CDMO is a CDMO with a long, long, long shot raffle ticket attached.
Bludgeoning them into talking about the raffle ticket as opposed to the viable business makes no sense.
In Bavi's 15+ years of existence, 100's of millions have been spent on it and it has provided $8m in revenue. For the life of me I can't understand why the BOD doesn't focus more on this.
All Bavi all the time.
I'm going to be rich this time. I just know it.
Agreed. The poison pill was put in place by a bunch of criminals so they could continue to steal from us. Many seemed happy with that. It is of no benefit. I am in line with the laughing stock article. This company, if things go has planned, has a legitimate shot of being a multi-bagger in a few years as a CDMO, which is what it is. They are correctly counting on little to nothing from Bavi. That is why it is not mentioned by serious investors or the BOD.
There is zero chance of collecting that $95m in milestones. The first milestone is likely for the completion of the 80 patient open label trial which is scheduled to conclude in over two years. From there, we are years and years away from any revenue sharing.
The bavi dream needs to die.
So you are saying that BP knew about Bavi and thought it was great however they had no idea it was going to be sold when the new crew came in and stated that they were going to turn the company into a CDMO because they didn't read the quarterly report?
Is this what you really believe? People on this board knew it was being sold but BP didn't?
Truly incredible.
What do you mean by open bid? It was not on facebook market place or Craig's list? There was no Sotheby's auction?
Everyone interested at all knew that they were trying to unload the garbage and transition into a dedicated CDMO?
I'm curious as to why you believe there was no "open bid"?
If there were an "open bid", how many billions do you think it would have sold for and why wouldn't the BOD want to sell it to them?
There is a reason for that and the person that knows is the grandmother of my aunt's dog walker's cousin. She worked at a company with a guy who had an uncle who's step-nephew knew somebody from Merck and he said that they and the rest of the pharmaceutical companies are all afraid of Bavi and it's huge potential so they broke a bunch of laws in an attempt to keep it down as opposed to looking in the couch cushions for the pocket change it would have cost to buy it.
It all really makes sense when you think about it.
Thanks CP. I feel much better. I'm looking forward to Bavi making me rich beyond my wildest dreams.
YAHOO! GO BAVI! circa 2010.
People sure want Bavi to be worth something and they get pretty angry and defensive when the are told it isn't.
Hundreds of millions of dollars of stockholder money was spent on Bavi and it was sold for $8m. It baffles me as to how that screams success to some.
At the very best, Bavi may mean some milestone payments and some production work for CDMO shareholders, although we'll see about that. When Bavi becomes the multibillion dollar success story that many predict, about ten years from now(chuckle), CDMO shareholders will receive nothing. That is a guarantee. For that reason, I'd prefer not to relive the Bavi day to day trial nightmare again. Ten years of false/manufactured hope was enough for me.
Bavi has been around for over 15 years. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on various trials. It is ten years and hundred of millions of more dollars until commercialization, if that ever happens.
That is quite a success story.
I think the big drop was due to unrealistic expectations of breakeven and increase in yearly revenue projections. They also seemed to indicate that quarter two wasn't going to be great.
Revenue number was good, backlog was very good, margins were awful.
I think our revenue number may hit $70-$75m this fiscal year and we may be at breakeven. Margins would have to improve greatly.
I, for one, would prefer not to go back to the dreams and postings of how Bavi is the world's greatest drug. Bavi has been around for over 15 years. It was sold to the highest bidder for $8m. Everyone knew it was for sale. Nobody wanted to pay more than that. If we are lucky we may get some additional milestone payments as it goes through trials. That is it. If it ever gets through trials, years and years from now, and starts making any money, which I highly doubt, the owners of CDMO will receive nothing. CDMO will have been sold long before then.
Let's not fall for the same hype machine again. Have we learned nothing? Talk of 100's of millions of dollars from Bavi royalties is a complete hoax. Do not get caught up in it.
That being said, I do believe in CDMO and their chances of getting to $20-$25 if everything goes right in the next few years. Concentrate on that.
I hope you're right. No reason it should have dropped like this on that call. Bought more at $5.90 and $5.02. It's an addiction.
"How can one claim that something is not 'explicitly' in the CDMO/Oncologie contract if the section on the topic is blanked out?"
If it is blanked out it is not explicit by definition.
Getting paid by a third party to sublicense a phase II and starting a phase II with your own money are certainly different. Not sure why that's not easy to see.
We have no idea what the milestones are and what we receive for achieving them. That's my point. Jake believes there could be a $5m milestone payment for beginning the small phase II. That's not unreasonable I guess but it is far from fact. I hope he's right. We will know soon. We will still be in the dark about any other milestones and payments.
The milestones could be set up with the successful completion of phase II with X number of patients. Who knows?
That contract doesn't state implicitly or explicitly that Oncolgie will pay a milestone payment to CDMO at the beginning of a phase II trial. Not even close. Nor did they "forget" to blank anything out. That is silly.
It makes sense that CDMO would receive something for the beginning of phase II, but I would certainly not be shocked if the unspecified milestones are harder to reach than that.
If Oncolgie received some money for sub-licensing Bavi for somebody else to do a phase II, it would make sense that some of that money would go to CDMO. That did not happen.
As I said before, we should know soon enough about any milestone payments for the beginning of a small phase II trial.
This time around it would be nice to strive for some accuracy.
What you are referring to means that Oncolgie sublicensed Bavi for a fee. This did not happen.
Thanks CP. This clears things up. Can you point to which asterisk indicates the milestone payment that is due with the beginning of the phase II?
(b) Milestone Payments. One-time payments upon the achievement of the milestones (each, a “Milestone” and collectively, the “Milestones”) described in this Section 3.1(b), by wire transfer of immediately available funds within thirty (30) calendar days after the achievement of each such Milestone (each, a “Milestone Payment” and collectively, the “Milestone Payments”):
(i)
Can't you highlight in that link where it says that the beginning of phase II triggers a milestone payment to CDMO.
Thanks
Yes, I saw that, but it's not much help.
"Oncologie to start trial 2nd half this year and Avid gets milestone payment"
Do you have a breakdown of when and what they receive for milestone payments?
It would make sense that they would receive something for the start of a trial but you seem to be stating this as fact.
If I'm not mistaken, the day after the last quarterly conference call went pretty well. Not expecting a repeat of that but getting above $7 and staying there would be nice.
I was kind of looking forward to this one. I think it would have been a real whopper.
Everything old is new again. We're all going to be rich beyond our wildest dreams. Let the island buying begin. If we can only get Carlton Johnson and a couple of those other hosers back on the board, we can make it happen. Those fellas are shakers and movers and honest as the day is long. I swear it's all true. I read it all right here on this board for years and years.
Nothing from March of 2018 until September of 2019. Not a good sign in my book.
YES! I was looking forward to hearing the good doctor's name again. When the great Dr. Wolchok mentions our name we will all be rich! Just like last time.
I can't wait until the Duke Paper is brought up again. I'm starting to feel like it is ten years ago all over again. We are all going to be filthy rich and fight over who gets to name their yacht Bavi first.
I strongly encourage any relative newbies to read posts from a few years back before putting any down payments on the new Ferrari.
I'm getting very excited(again). Bavi is going to make me rich(again). How could everybody possibly be wrong(again)?
Bavi is King! Again.
I more than doubled my position at about $4, so $20 would be fine with me. I think if they confirm guidance on Thursday and give a positive outlook, we should stay solidly north of $7 up to the annual meeting next month.
IMO there will be no change to the revenue forecast for the year. There will also be no mention of Bavi.
It appears we are going to fall into the "Bavi will make me rich" scheme again. It is kind of shocking to me but it's like I always say, people hear what they want to hear. No matter who they hear it from.
Bavi is certainly not the Microsoft of biotech. It will not move the PPS of CDMO to the multiple hundreds or multiple forward splits. These are all just fantasies. Many lived those fantasies for 10-15 years and appear ready to live them again.
AVID is a CDMO that can get to about $20 if everything goes well and then maybe get bought out at a slight premium at that point. That is fine will me. I am lucky not to lose everything by investing in a company with a bunch of crooks on the BOD and a bunch of online "supporters." How soon we forget.
If, in the million to one shot that Bavi was going to produce hundreds of millions or billions in revenue, we would be bought out well before then.
CDMO will never ever do a forward split.
So what is the price to sales for biologics manuf? 7? That's a pps of about $22, which is fine with me. What is the profit margin of biologics manuf? Greater than Cambrex 40%?
For the record, we are nowhere near $200m or 40%. Hopefully in a few years.
I think things are getting carried away again with Bavi dreams and sales projections that have not come from the company. They projected less than 70m for the year. I doubt that they will be off by more than 10%.
Stories of them announcing a couple weeks early so they don't have to include in projections a pr that came a week later does not make sense. Wishful thinking.
Cambrex profit margin averaged over 40% the past 4 years. They sold for less than 5 times sales. Going off that, if we could expand and get our revenue to $200m and margins at 40%, we could expect a buyout of about $15. That excludes any windfall we get from Bavi. Snicker.
Good one. Bavi is a pipe dream. It failed every trial it was ever in. Fantasies about murdered scientist and people trying to steal the IP are just that, fantasies. Any BP could have had it for pocket change at any time. They didn't want it. Anyone holding out any hope for some return from Bavi will be disappointed. It has been around for over fifteen years.
You've been pretty good at this so I hope you're right. No reason not to make a move like that. I doubt there will be anything big prior to the next conference call in about a month. I expect they will confirm estimates and hopefully we can get to and stay in the $7-8 range. There is no way we are at capacity this year of $100m. That is fantasy I believe. We would be at about $12 per share. I also expect nothing as far as money from Bavi. That's still a fantasy.
She's no Carlton Johnson, but she'll do.
I would love to be surprised by $100m in revenue this year, but I highly doubt it. They did pretty well in forecasting revenue last year so to be off by 50% this year doesn't seem likely to me. New contracts are obviously great but it is my understanding in this business that revenue is not nearly immediate. There is a pretty significant lag time with scale up, test runs, etc.
I am surprised they actually pr'ed additional work from an existing customer and the addition of a new customer. This seems new for them. It seems as though they are trying to support the run up in share price. It would be nice if they were doing this because they are looking to do a placement soon for money for an expansion. If they are planning to be near capacity in the next couple of years(or even this year if ElSid is correct), they would need to move on it soon. I think the cost was about $30m or 5 or 6 million shares. Not a fan of dilution but that would be great news and I would buy more on any dip.
The Company said $63m-$67m in revenues. $100m would be a pretty big positive miss. I don't see it. $75-80 would be nice.
Would love to see something like $35, but I don't see how it could possibly happen. In full expansion to current facilities the maximum annual revenue we could produce if we were 100% utilized is $200m. The upper end of the values for CDMOs is 7 X revenue. That's a market cap of $1.4b. That's a pps of $23. Again, that is at fully expansion, which we are not at, and full utilization of full expansion. I'm not sure we could get north of $25 and that could take a few years of things going very well.
Would love to hear somebody explain how we could do better than that. If any portion of the share price has anything to do with Bavi, please do not respond. I lived that fantasy once, no need to do it again. We are a CDMO and that is how we will sink or swim. Loved the cc from last week and have some realistic faith going forward. Somewhere around $7-8 seems reasonable now and if we can equal or beat estimates for the current year and continue to grow, maybe $12-15 next year.
"Man! I feel good today."
Share price $3.80.
Also, a select few on this board would not be the only ones to know this and the share price would be much higher.
"it wasnt stopped because of being useless."
Actually, that's exactly why it was stopped.
Bavi is dead. This is a CDMO.