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Please stop this nonsense. The PR is confirmed by both IR and a board member.
Start covering your short pos.
Of course, totally forgot about all the exiting stuff for CA for a while (the main reason not to sell your Siaf shares after the X-dare of the Tri-way distribution).
Okay guys, I'm really bullish this time due to a few things mentioned by S in Stockholm:
1. S was elaborating about how the market had reacted on the recent press releases. His conclusion was that the market had rallied for a short time and then back to normal trading pattern (downward). He said he would not be interested to repeat this process but rather to release some real game changer much better appreciated by the market. Looks like we're getting there.
2 When we asked him how he intended to defend the stock after the X-date regarding the Tri-way distribution, he told us that no one would want to sell the stock by then. Probably he had this in mind (share buyback and cash dividends)
Enjoy the rally! More to come!
I understood that when the last questios were answered, the head office (I guess credit committee) would take the final decision. According to the estimated timeline given in Stockholm, we would need to wait another month until its done.. Solomon emphasised that nothing is 100% certain.
I think we all should be aware that the carve out was finalised in March. In April, Solomon initiated the discussions with the banks that ordered the D&B report, undertook operational DD, finanacial DD, and hopefully soon will approve a gigantic financing package for Tri-way. Tri-way will then be able to repay some debts to Siaf. The company has made many mistakes but are finally doing the right things.
I don't kno which bank or location of the head office.
Unfortunately, your memory has failed you. The company has paid out 3 cash dividends and is in progress distributing 50% of its holdings in Tri-way
Well, what you referring to should be a plan B, if the debt financing package fails. Currently, nothing indicates that they won't get the founding.
As a smart CEO, I think he already has engaged in such discussions.
Things have changed already. More conservative communication. Capex put on hold for SJAP, HSA and plantation. The loan to Tri-way is progressing according to plan. Then TW will settle debt to Siaf and Siaf will reduce collateral shares.
Form F1 and CA events as bonuses.
I don't see a huge risk for a short attack. The risk reward situation is simply not good enough from a short perspective, least to say.
As you stated, we don't have shares available on OTC. The valuation of the company is ridiculous even if you say that Siaf including the 18.3% of the Tri-way shares that will remain in Siaf after the stock dividend, would be worth zero.
People like myself would gladly pick up shares if opens down 15 % or more without news.
The shorter will also face the risks that Siaf release news regarding form F1, financing for TW, international partnership for CA with a strong founding partner. Or SJAP finds founding partners that want to capitalise on the monopoly situation regarding value adding processing given be local government to SJAP.
If any of above happens, the shorter is fu**ed.
Yes, tax selling could also explain some of it. Personally, I would never dare to stay out now. Financing for TR and X-date would take us back to 8$.
I believe we have retail selling. People are getting sick of the decline in SP and throwing in the towel when their stomach can't take it.
However, as I understand, the large debt financing package for Tri-way is still on. This will improve cash flow for Siaf and further verify Tri-ways business plan.
Moreover, EPS will increase Q3 and potential deals abroad for CA.
I also appreciate that the company has decided to be more conservative with forward looking statements. I think we should give them credit for this.
At these levels, the there is no downside risk mid term.
Yes, it was mentioned during the meeting that debt will be settled and that Siaf will reduce the collectoral shares a bit when this happens. But according to S, we won't get rid of all the share until sometime next year.
According to S during the Stockholm meeting, the lead bank has committed a operational report stating that Tri-ways farms are more effective than peers.
Please, let's pay attention to what's going on now instead.
Capex put on hold for Sjap, HSA and HU. You should give him credit for doing the right things here.
Tri-way is getting closer to obtain a loan of a size that is 2-3 times current market cap of Siaf. The D&B report (Tri-way) obtained highest credit rating is a part of this.
Tri-way will within the next few months settle debt to Siaf that partly will be used to reduce colletoral shares.
Even if you say that Siaf excluding Tri-way is worth zero, we are still trading at fractions of true value for the 18.3% of Tri-way, shares that will be distributed to current shareholders of Siaf.
Yes, S has made mistakes in the past but please don't blame him for finally doing the right things.
Sometimes it's not in their control:
According to S, when I asked if they had solved the initial problems with the mega farm, he told me that they will use open dams at the last growth phase for the prawns. So that they can grow them larger.
Further, he told me that they expect to be fully commercial operational at the mega form during Q4 FY17. They had some challenges educating the staff (past experiences of open dams only). For me, it seems like the finally learning how to manage the mega farm in an effective way. It's also nice that the other farms improving.
Unbelievable for me that you even bothering writing about HU and beef. HU, same as communicated in the most recent report, plants damaged by too much rain. No CAPEX.
Beef SJAP: No CAPEX. They are looking for partners to help them realize the value from the local government giving them monopoly regarding abattoir activities. Yellow cattle doing OK.
What you should write about are the great stuff regarding Tri-way(financing) and CA (listing, new partners etc).
As I understood it, S main reason for the one week stay in Scandinavia was not to meet Marius Gaard. He met him for the same reason as he met us. He had so e time in between other, more important meetings.
Yes, 8 000 shares today.
Summary of my 2 h discussion with S last evening in Stockholm: (post 2)
Megafarm status of financing:
It was the leader of the bank syndicate of five banks that ordered the credit rating report/study from Dun & Bradstreet (D&B). Apparently, it was not appreciated that SIAF released this information since they didn’t ask the bank in advance. Since then, the lead bank has conducted several other studies operational DD (Tri-way outstanding vs peers) etc, not released to the market, which I understood are finalized by now. Solomon mentioned that he hopes that he could release the reports in a not very distant future. As I understood it, they have been answered an extreme amount of questions from an auditor that was hired by the lead bank and that they only have one question left.
I interpret the discussions that the will finalize this within a couple of days. Then the lead bank will need to sign the agreement at the head office. My bet, within the next 2 months, Tri-way will obtain financing of USD 150m and that Tri-way will use some of this to settle debt to SIAF.
Regarding the loan from Agricultural Bank of China, apparently this is a working capital credit facility that can only be used utilized in China and not to finance the CAPEX for the mega farm.
I’ll get back with some exciting stuff regarding CA and performance of the mega farm. Capital award is the reason why you don’t want to sell your SIAF shares after the X-date of the Tri-way distribution btw.
Summary of my 2 h discussion with S last evening in Stockholm: (post 1 of 2)
Divest: I asked him if he would consider divesting some of his assets and use the money the support the stock. I interpret his answer that it would be difficult to find a buyer due to the condition/mess of the assets. After that I asked him why he didn’t write down the value, but he said that the auditors among others confirms the values. The truly great assets belong to Tri-way and they are closer than ever to obtain substantial founding. I’ll get back to this later. He emphasized that they have put all CAPEX on hold for the other assets.
I told him that the former CFO, Bertil, spoke of the land leases as hidden gems since the prices had increased a lot since SIAF signed up for it. So why don’t they sell it? The only industrial zoning is HAS and they have buildings there already. Rest of the land is agricultural land.
I asked him if they have plans to defend the stock after they announced the X-date regarding the Tri-way distribution. His answer was that there would be no need to protect the stock (I interpreted that he expects some of the additional game changers in addition to financing for Tri-Way would have occurred during within that time).
I asked him if they have signed any new board members in Tri-way but apparently, they only have that Indian guy (former CEO of a listed IT consultancy). The reason for signing him is that they have exiting stuff going on in India. Of course, they are engaged in discussions with other candidates.
What happens when Solomon decides to step down? I mentioned that I have been a shareholder since pink sheet and that I’m not very impressed of my returns so far and that it seems likely that I need to stick with this investment a few additional year until I’ll be rewarded for my patience. He told me that he will only be a regular board member in Tri-Way with no role in the operations. As a following up question on this, I pointed out that the potential value for the other assets won’t realize full value any time soon. Then he told me they have a few candidates that they are testing but it is tricky to find the right candidate (Solomon is an engineer, finance trained, almost a law degree and have a life time of experience in the fields that concerns SIAF).
I told him that shareholders have sold out due to that they don’t trust the communication from the company. I also pointed out that I sold some of my share due to the recent mess with Tri-way distribution and asked him how they could miss that they had to fil the form F-1. His answer was that that they have had discussions with five layers about this and 3 of them said that they would not need to fil the Form F-1, another didn’t have any clear answer. When they asked SEC, SEC told them that they didn’t have the fil the F-1. However, once they got back to SEC at a later stage, SEC refused to give them a free letter, hence, to not risk the company, the management team with advice from the advisors, decided to fil the F-1 anyway, hence the delay. My replay on this was why the hell don’t you tell the market about this, that the reason for the delay in not because you are incompetent but rather that SEC can’t give you straight answers. Then he replied that he is not interested in engaging in a conflict with SEC. Fair enough for me at least.
If anyone wonders, the weird item on the balance sheet, within the line construction in progress, fish pond USD 17m is work that SIAFA/CA performed for Tri-way. This receivable will be settled when Tri-way obtains financing (which I personally expect to happen within the next two months). Some of the money will be used the reduce the collateral shares but we won’t get rid of all the collateral shares until perhaps mid-2018.
I asked him, since Tri-Way will grow very heavily the coming years, is it CA that will provide SIAF with operational cash-flow that will be used for dividends? He said that due to the very high amount of the debt financing that they are negotiating for now, and due to the constructor deals that they are discussion with, and later pre-IPO money, Tri-Way will be able to both pay dividends and grow at the same time.
More coming in my next post (2-2).
I was at the meeting. S met with FD before. Only 6 shareholders at the meeting. I asked like 90 % of the questions. Took 2 hours . The meeting ended when no one had any questions left. I had a copy of the balance sheet and asked him about items that I consider to be weird, for instance the USD 17m fish pond on the line construction in progress. Satisfied.
The stuff regarding financing for Tri-Way is still on. Bank syndicates of 5 banks. The D&B credit rating part of this. Substantial amounts. Really exiting stuff regarding CA to.
I also asked him about the communications regarding the distribution and I got a reliable answer regarding what cased the delay.
Finally I had a long discussion regarding share holder value with him. He understands our pain.
Don't have time to write more tonight.
Correct. Don't understand the nonsense posted here recently.
RD: According to SEC, the registrant, in the Form-F1, needs to describe any material changes which has occurred since the end of last fiscal year for which audited financial statements were included and which have not been described in a report on Form 6-K, 10-Q or 8-K.
We definitely don't need to wait until next year to get this done. My best guess is that we receive the x-date within a month.
The minimum value is supported by the valuation used by Dun and Bradstreet when providing Tri-Way the highest credit rating. The real value of Tri-Way is off caurse much higher. So I would say that based on this logic, the rest of SIAF is worth even less than -$73M.
Must be some kind of world record regarding the gap between actual value and market cap.
Tri-Way Completes Share Registration! Great news and within the 10 days stated in the PR August 17.
Will increase my holdings!
The bad news is that there are still substantial steps to be taken for the stock dividend to materialise. Also implicate how amateurish they were when they released the prior information regarding the stock dividend
Once again I'm confused by the trading in this stock. They just released bad news. More delays with the distribution. Nothing completed. Just the usual soon, the company expect etc etc
Finally this man is gone. Amazing that he has been a board member this long given the lack of professionalism he has demonstrated during the years. It's pretty clear that he screwed it up by not being successful with anything during the years. I just hope he didn't end up the time here with a huge, final screw-up. What do you think?
It's a balance sheet transaction. Will reduce assets on one side and equity on the other side. Going forward you will have lower income from investments in SIAF since we will own shares directly in Tri-Way (18.3%). However, when they start implementing the business plan for Tri-Way, off curse income will increase dramatically in SIAF.
Personally, I'm sick of all the delays and BS from management. That's why I reduced my position with 50%, currently holding some 15k shares. I'm happy to buy them back at a much higher price when they release X-date and hopefully additional debt financing.
1. Did you expect the HU disaster? Wasent cattle supposed to stabilise?
2. What in this report contributed to lower uncertainty?
3. Cash flow: Finally they talking about reducing Capex and some hope on converting working capital to cash. Hope for improvement in terms of cash flow is basically the only good part with this report.
The trading in this stock is beyond all sense. From the Q2 we learned that the HU business that could provide us with dividends is destroyed due to illness. That support for SJAP from local government is put on hold. HSA is a mess, they even told us about farming chickens. The aqua sales are decreasing even though it's supposed to ramp up due to reacent renovations. We were supposed to receive the Tri-way dividend in June. Come on guys, please tell me what's going on?!
Good one
Well, if they would have listened to shareholders the HU would been sold for 3 years ago. When we asked Solomon during a conference call he said he wouldn't sell it "cause it's profitable". Try to sell it now. Regarding the beef, I have asked the company to stop throwing away good money on HSA for years. Additional 10 million outstanding shares later they talking about rearing chickens and stop Capex.
Regarding aqua, I guess they having a dilemma explaining the difference between Q2 actual vs the forecasts made public a year ago. Guess we partly can thank the kid Erik Ahl for that...
I encourage everyone to email the company demanding Yap to resign. Remerber him shouting to a shareholder during a conference call a year ago when the shareholder was wondering regarding financing. In my opinion, mr Yap will scare away anyone willing to invest in Tri-way.
Enough BS. I will reduce my position until we get some real progress with Tri-way and Capital award. No room for more broken promises.
Nice caught!
At the beginning of the day, we were trading at 19.0 NOK. At the end of the day we were trading at 19.6 NOK.