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How many shares does your employer needs to cover? 0.5m, 1m, 2m? Will be fun to watch
FY19. We would achieve higher valuation FY20 due to historical trading but I think management feel pressure to reward the long timers as soon as possible. I guess it depends on Siaf share price at that time.
Plenty of money on the sideline. Probably a few million shares short. Financing still on. The science team are getting closer on how to fully utilise Aqua farm 4. Profits will sky rocket the next coming years. Solomon is no longer anti cash dividends. Announcement of the share distribution. New PR firm to be signed to start rolling out the story (after certain triggers). Tariffs on US beef. Management trying to be more effective in terms of Capex and cost of capital. Return of collateral shares.
It's not unlikely that we make 4$ EPS FY20, including Tri-way on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Could give us a PE North of 20. You do the math and tell me their is any other case with better risk reward.
Much lower risk in Siaf now compare to just a few weeks ago when SEC were still reviewing the 10K for FY16. Moreover we got information about the collaterals shares which was encouraging. Expect the SP to increase 200-300% within the next 3 months.
I think they stopped working with them last summer. People that were involved with Tri-way left DBS and Solomon was not very pleased with that due to additional work and lost of time.
I think they worked with DBS in the beginning of the carve out exercise but don't think DBS is involved anymore.
Lol, they don't even manage to get Solomons names right: Salomon Lie
Guess they just copy and pasted Fredlys email. Journalism as it's best.
The US beef production is superior to those. Perhaps not the cheapest but great quality to a decent price. The relief of tariffs on US beef affected Siafs imports from Australia in a not very great way. The strategy for the beef business has been high end segment (for the last year) and US beef pushed downward pressure on that segment. So this is actually quite bullish news for the company.
Truly great news!
Ok no news then. Regarding the prospect, Swedbank (a leading Nordic bank) was the advisor. I guess they didn't expect a share price this low back then.
Dividend, both quarterly cash and Tri-way, financing without shares used as collaterals. If all of these happens we will be trading North 10$.
In the auditor report the auditor stated that Siafs internal controls were effective.
Yes. Like I already have.
The difference between Zero etc and the people who are sometimes optimistic about some parts is that the optimists provides arguments based on facts and are willing to discuss the facts and potential doubts. Zero etc tend to just write SCAM, NO BUSINESS etc. When you try to challenge them, they just change topic.
Yes, but US production is more effective than Australian.
Just red a report from Danske Bank (a Nordic bank). The report states that China consider increase tariffs on American beef imports as a response to Trumps tariffs on Chinese washing machines etc.
OK, but my question was concerning his DNB email?
Erik Ahls email at DNB markets anyone? (he still works part-time with SIAF).
As always. 100% nonsense, zero facts, and false claims that you can't support
Please Mark, save us from your nonsense. There are some people here actually analyzing facts. Your and Zeros comments are enjoying since you never support your claims with facts. And when some of us proof you're wrong, you just switch topic.
Here's one fact for you: Siaf has divested business divisions in the past and received cash from the divestment
I've sent this to the whole team today (Solomon, Peter, Erik Ahl, Nisse).
Now would be the time to communicate something meaningful from the company.
Meaningful = explanation regarding the heavy increase in outstanding shares
Meaningful = Financing of Tri-way (needs no further explanation)
Meaningful = cash flow SIAF (reduction of working capital, divest non core assets if we could receive 10 % of book value or more, collect receivables like the USD 6m that we lent out to the distribution center that we don't even own etc)
Meaningful = The change of Solomons compensation package = stealing from common shareholders
Meaningful = news on when we will receive the divi shares in Tri-way that you promised to distribute last summer
Meaningful = AGM FY16 including status of the SEC review of the form 10K
Meaningful = quarterly dividends
If you are successful in releasing some cash, please consider paying a quarterly cash dividend before buy-bucks. 5 c per quarter would take us back to USD 3 per share. A share buyback program is just an intention and the market would be in doubt in if and how many shares that are being bought back from the market. You could consider a share buyback program when the stock reach USD 3 and above. Until then, only quarterly dividends would do the job since the effect on the share price doesn't depends on trust.
All other things are irrelevant at this stage.
It's all about hitting a trigger. Could you imagine what would happen to the stock if we did?
This stock is extremely volatile. The time to buy is when the sentiment is this depressing. Reduce when people talk about the 100$ party. No matter if we receive the development capital near term, we'll see a nice ramp-up in aqua production.
Btw didn't you just buy a small pos? Perhaps not the best decision if you think this one could reach zero?
RD, don't you say that Siaf will fail to file the 10K every year? :)
The link is for HSA only. You also have to include SJAP. KPMG performed a VDD Nov14 and in connection to this they released a specific SJAP report where the stated that the LTM revenues were higher than USD 100m for SJAP only. I think they performed the VDD on more than the link that you just sent over. But what do I know?
Don't you think that a company that sells goods needs goods to sell in order to generate sales? If yes, then you must agree that Siaf needs an inventory. When you sell goods from the inventory you will be able to calculate inventory turnover which is a key-ratio to get an indication if there is an excess inventory. I have performed the calculation and was able to draw the conclusion that we are in line with industry average. Have you?
When you look at the price/book ratio it's gives you an indication if something is cheap or expensive. Based on you logic one can draw the conclusion that the more expensive a company is the stronger buy.
Finally, may I suggest that you try to be more open minded when making analysis. It seems to me that you already have decided that Siaf is crap and just looking for arguments to support that claim.
The prices for fertilizer have increased a lot the last couple of months so just good for us if inventory levels are high.
To help improving your analytical skills in terms of deciding whether or not the company should write down book value, you shouldn't compare booked value of inventory with the market cap. Instead you should compare it to the turnover. If you do the later you should get to the conclusion the the inventory is not over valued.
Good luck with your investments!
There are so many alternatives here to create shareholder value. Besides selling stocks for a higher price than current market cap (likely) and for S to get rid of A shares (near time not very likely imo) we have all the "triggers".
In theory yes. However the reality is that we are trading at 3% of book value. By selling stocks at 5 % of booked value, the market would adjust pretty fast imo. Next round you could sell some stocks at 8%. The round after at 20% and so on.
As RD mentioned, remember what happened with the price right after the ECAB deal. From 4$ to 17$.
And why would anyone pay a premium? Since the stock is heavily under valued and there is impossible the accumulate a significant stake without pushing the price North.
I expect an update from the company regarding why Garret received 320 000 shares of common stock upon maturity of a loan agreement with Sino Agro Food, inc. Due February 28, 2018.
When I asked Peter about it February 1, he was not informed about the terms.
Anyone here that got info on this?
I totally agree with you. On one hand, people don't want more carrots like "we have made significant inroads to secure debt financing". Just tell us when the deals are done.
On the other hand people like empty have requested general comments about operations, pictures etc. The last PR is a response to the later. Very hard for IR to please us until we get REAL news.
Yes, when looking in the rear mirror, off course they should have defaulted the loans. However, As I understand, the company expected to have achieved several triggers by now, hence no downside risks were identified in connection with collaterals.
I feel sorry for people that are forced to sell here. They will never get back their money back and we have to blame S for that.
We are all aware about that the company has not made the best priorities in the past in terms of investing to heavy in the cattle sector. The sector that was hit by government suddenly reducing import tariffs.
The main driver for the poor cash situation is that they have invested very heavily in the mega farm and that the mega farm currently doesn't provide a very strong cash flow. Please remember that Siaf has lent out millions to Tri-way.
The ONLY reason for printing shares is that the shares ar used as collaterals for a few loans. The company can not afford to default the loans since we could then risk to lose those shares.
Please keep in mind that the the company has several initiatives ongoing to fix this. I share the company's view that there are not point in communicating anything until the deals are done. No point telling the market "we are close/ has made significant inroads etc" since we would only laugh at transparent Dan etc.
Yes' that's the ONLY reason.
What exactly do you want them to confirm to the market?
Frankly, I don't think anyone knows for sure. Personally, I think that some shares have hit the market. This in combination with the ever decreasing share price have let to that some retails have sold out.
I think it will be impossible to jump in again when news arrives. I expect 1. Tri-way financing. 2. Tri-way pays back some debt owned to Siaf. 3. Siaf to repay some loans. 4. Reduction of outstanding shares.
If Tri-way fails with financing, I think they will announce an asset sale and a plan to pay back the loans and reduce outstanding shares accordingly.
I think it is of importance to understand the the ONLY reason for the share printing is to provide the lenders with additional collaterals. This is the only reason. Those shares will be returned to the company when the company pay back the debts. Off course this is not a nice situation to be in but this is the way it is and to default the loans now is not an option since it will make it impossible for the share to recover.
I got confirmed today that the discussions with the banks are still ON. Everything else are nothing but lies.
Empty, you are not contributing to the board anymore. Suggest you take a break and re-listen to the last conf,call instead of posting nonsense like Mark, Zero et al.
Exactly the reason why we are invested here.
I have but he said he didn't know. Presumably, there will be an update after February 28.
Empty, I'm for sure not satisfied with the lack of progress in terms of debt financing for Tri-way and I will demand to know exactly what has been going on during the process. However, we might still get positive news any day now. I think Dans comments during the last conf call was a bit more mature than previous communication.
I'm still in since I believe that we have reached the lowest point in terms of profitability and that we will improve from here even without a large financing package for Tri-way. If we would be trading around 4-5$ I would probably leave this pos if they once again fails to obtain financing, however, never around the 1$ area.
My impression is that management have learned the lesson the hard way and that they are trying to clean out the mess with the semi toxic financing.
No matter what, Solomon must learn to act as a CEO and not communicate like a child.
Sorry if my postings here has been misleading.