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Have a great weekend! More fun next week. HMNY to da moon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FACT: Losing more and more money each month.
FACT: More dilution to come.
FACT: The more dilution there is, the less a stock price is worth.
FACT: The lower the stock price, the more dilution there is in order to milk shareholders dry.
FACT: The shareholder dilution cycle is a death spiral that grows worse as a function of time.
FACT: Each time the stock price goes down, pumpers claim it's the bottom.
FACT: The stock has lost more than 99.5% of it's value from its all time high.
FACT: Many generation of shareholders have already been wiped out.
EXTREMELY HIGH PROBABILITY: Existing shareholders and future shareholders will be wiped out.
Did you guys read the new SEC filings? HMNY is in big trouble, and so are shareholders. They're now doing IOUs to Hudson Bay.
It seems Ted Farnsworth isn't worried about losing shareholders' money, in repeated interviews. But if you read between the lines, they are getting very creative with their SEC filings, changing things around left and right to try and survive day by day.
The more subs they have, the faster they'll dilute you. That 5 billion authorization? They will need to increase that to 10 to 20 billion in about 6 months. I'm seldom wrong.
Anyone still pumping AA or Gotti?
I didn't know Gotti would open with 500+ screens so I thought it would do worse. It did pretty bad, considering Yahoo Finance reported that Deadline reported that 40% of viewers were MoviePass subs. And I've already proven that if more than 35% of movie goers are MP subs, Ted Farnsworth has guaranteed he's losing shareholder money.
Check this out: https://photos.app.goo.gl/wf24o2xj5VNxH45y8
Screens counts are going down, so the money from viewers will drop. Looks like money-losing scheme just like I calculated. MoviePass Films acquisition of 51% of Emmett/Oasis will be the death of HMNY. At first I calculated HMNY might be OK after many more generations of shareholders will be wiped out (i.e. lose 99-100% of their investments as of right now), but now I realize that if the 51% acquisition of Emmett/Oasis goes through and MP herds MP subs to go watch these money-sucking films, they will guarantee to go broke. This puppy will delist in 6-12 months.
And guess what? At 10 cents PPS, since HMNY only loses about $50+ million now, they will only need to sell 500 million to 600 million shares per month, with EXPONENTIAL GROWTH, in order to survive. So that 5 billion share authorization???? Expect it to be increased to 10-20 billion within about 6 months.
Don't worry. I haven't abandoned the misguided souls here yet. I'll be here to save you. I have vacation next week so I'm currently trying to finish up my work before I go. Don't worry, you won't see me (much) next week.
Having said that, you know who did a pretty good job of destroying the company? Ted Farnsworth.
Check this out: https://photos.app.goo.gl/ZT8kx2Qqrkq2fiGS9
We can add RedZone and HMNY/MoviePass on the list too.
Just like they changed the record date holder for voters. It was anyone who was a record holder of June 25th (meaning they'd have to buy on June 21). Only, Canaccord must have been screwing around with the stock price to manipulate because they became bagholders when the sell off happened. So what did HMNY do? Change the rules, and move the 25th to the 29th. So anyone who's a record hold as of the 29th (buyer as of the 27th, meaning they could sell out on the 28th, the day the stock price went up), would be able to vote.
Let's be honest. Any poor saps regret not selling higher? It's only going lower. HMNY is out of cash, at probably around $4 million by my estimate. 107 million more shares to sell by July 23. Even if they manage to sell at 15 cents on average, that's only $16 million. They owe a lot more. YIKES! Can't save all baggies when they intend on losing all their money.
The only person driving the stock down is Ted Farnsworth.
The more subs they have, the more money they lose.
HAHAHAHAH
The SEC.GOV website is bashing HMNY. The found some dirt on HMNY. Look for yourselves. So not only are they out of money, they owe a ton of money.
Even if they managed to sell 107 MILLION SHARES of stock before July 23rd, at an average price of 15 cents, that's only $16 million gross (not including fees). That's not nearly enough.
From the 424B5 on 7-10-18:
"Financial Update
As of June 30, 2018, we had approximately $13.7 million in available cash and approximately $32.2 million on deposit with our merchant and fulfillment processors for a total of approximately $45.9 million. The funds held by these processors represent a portion of the payments received for annual and other extended term MoviePass subscription plans and future ticket fulfillment, which we classify as current assets on our balance sheet and which we expect to be disbursed to us or utilized during 2018.
As of July 10, 2018, there was $0.8 million of unrestricted principal owed under the convertible notes we issued in November 2017, under the January 2018 notes there is no unrestricted principal outstanding and there is $ 20.2 million of unrestricted principal owed under the convertible notes we issued in June 2018. We also owe $1.7 million in interest and certain make-whole obligations under such notes."
ATTENTION: BAGHOLDERS. ATM Dilution is on again.
They have 107.25 million (500 million - 268.75 million OS - 124 million reserved) more shares to sell between now and July 23rd. They would be out of money as I previously calculated by next week. This confirms it was Ted Farnsworth who killed yesterday's uptrend/double bottom and took the price down. Shorts don't need to bring the stock price down. Ted Farnsworth does a great job at it already.
424B5 dated 7-10-18:
"268,749,677 shares of common stock outstanding as of July 10, 2018".
This also confirms they diluted yesterday, bringing down the stock price when it should have gone up as I predicted. Prior outstanding shares was at 250 million. More pain and suffering to come.
8-K dated 7-11-18:
"(c) Solely with respect to the period commencing on the date hereof and ending on the Stock Split Stockholder Approval Deadline, the Holder hereby waives any obligation of the Company to reserve more than an aggregate of 124,000,000 shares of Common Stock for conversion of the November Notes and the January Notes."
Again, this is calculating it pre-split. The only way to show true loss/gain is to calculate it using pre-split numbers, or to calculate your cost basis with post-split numbers. You can't do one side of the equation with the split and not the other.
So if you buy at $10 and it's 17 cents now, but after the reverse split of 250, it becomes $42.50, you won't say I bought at $10 and sold at $42.50. You'd say you bought at $10 and sold at 17 cents, pre-split, or you say you bought at $250 and sold at $42.50, post split.
Sub 10 cents in July as I previously predicted. 400+ shares outstanding before July is over.
Sub 5 cents in August with 700+ shares outstanding.
We going to zero soon? We'll get there, when we get there.
You finally saw the light?
HOLY FUDGE! My first calculation was right. These basturds are burning more cash then they are admitting. "As of June 30, 2018, we had approximately $13.7 million in available cash"
And how the hell did they bypass their note holder's default clause where they need to reserve shares instead of dilute them? They had 250 million shares outstanding just 1-2 weeks ago. Now they report:
"The number of shares of common stock to be outstanding after this offering is based on 268,749,677 shares of common stock outstanding as of July 10, 2018"
https://photos.app.goo.gl/MK38Hiz6qnbmqKRWA
I calculated $12.7 million in cash left on June 30. They reported $13.7 million.
More dilution
Well folks, my first calculation showed they were out of money this week or early next week. But, I hadn't calculated the ATM dilution from the first two weeks of June. With that in the calculation, they should have lasted until the meeting this month. The only reason they're diluting now is they are burning even more cash than they admitted. I bet most of this is going towards that money-losing scheme called Emmett/Oasis.
Potential dead cat bounce to the 25 cents area, which is the first level of resistance. 30 cents after that, if it breaks through 25 cents. Even I'm temping to buy a little around the 19 cent range to "gamble" on technical reasons (not on hype/hope). I would NOT hold through July 23rd. Nothing good happens after July 23rd.
If votes = YES, there'll be massive dilution like we've never seen before. It'll make the last few months look like a joke.
If votes = NO, MoviePass ceases operations due to no more funding. HMNY can't make payments to noteholders and defaults. It'll be over for everyone.
In my honest opinion, the worst business plan yet was acquiring Emmett/Oasis and herding MP subs to go watch. Guaranteed to lose money.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/GZinrKV2f22yhH3L7
HMNY almost out of cash.
Their SEC filing on 5-8-18 said: "As of April 30, 2018, we had approximately $15.5 million in available cash."
In May through half of June, they did ATM dilutions to sustain them, so much that they diluted over 100+ million shares in that time frame, to the extent they ran out of shares to dilute.
Their SEC filing on 6-21-18 said: "As of May 31, 2018, we had approximately $18.5 million in available cash"
Their only source of funding other than MP subs and some minor streams was the $20.5 million ($19+ after fees) from the June funding where they sold 20,500 Series A Preferred Shares for $20.5 million.
They have no more shares to dilute. They are at a max, unless they're illegally selling and breaking the contracts with their note holders.
Where are they getting the money now??? They're almost out of cash.
===================
CORRECTION: They will make it to the shareholder meeting because they did ATM dilute the first half of June. But that means after the meeting, YES = massive dilution. NO = close up shop. No good news either way.
This is like watching a train coming at you and not getting out of the way. You're hoping and praying at the last second the train will magically get stopped by Superman or something. Few people can claim they didn't know what was going to happen. Let's recap for those who are truly misguided:
1. Massive losses, increasing by the month. I project MP will run out of cash later this week or early next week. I suspect they'll need to lower the prices of MP again or come up with some too-good-to-be-true scheme to sucker in more subscribers to pay an annual fee just to make it, before the Special Meeting on the 23rd, or sell Series A Preferred Shares again since they're out of ATM shares to dilute.
2. Massive dilution, with 400-700 million shares projected by the end of August.
3. A vote on multiple things, including a reverse split and 5 billion authorized shares. a YES means continued dilution and current shareholders are wiped out. a NO means a death sentence as HMNY can no longer dilute and pay for MP to continue, thus closing down shop and defaulting on note holders. Note holders will come claiming what's theirs. MP will need to be sold off. HMNY gets nothing.
4. I would believe that if MP ever reaches 10 million subs, increasing prices to $14.95 would make it more doable, but Ted wants no part in that. He wants to continue milking shareholders and doesn't care, AND current generation shareholders and many more to come would be wiped out already by then. Remember, two reverse splits of 1 for 250 each (250 x 250 = 65,500) means 100K shares turn into 1 share. 100K/65.5K = 1.6, rounded down to 1 share
5. Even if HMNY somehow makes it, what will destroy them is the acquisition of Emmet/Oasis, which I've already proven is a financial suicide. As they herd MP subs to watch movies, and because they must pay movie theaters 65% of the box office, if 35% of movie goers are MP subs, they've guaranteed their losses WILL GROW AS THE BOX OFFICE GROWS. And even if only 25% are MP subs, they would need an insanely high box office such as $30 million on an expense of $3 million budget movie to even break even. This is going to be their downfall. Without this, HMNY may make it (after many generations of shareholders see their investments turn into ZERO), but with this, there is no version where ANY shareholders in ANY TIME PERIOD wins. There is no rush to buy. So sad that suckers have lost so much money and will continue to lose everything from here.
A few possibilities:
1. There's UNCONFIRMED reports of the card not working (at times) the past week or so. This could discourage users enough to make it last until the meeting.
2. A new July offering selling Series A Preferred Shares. They are out of ATM shares to dilute.
3. Introduce some too-good-to-be-true package that requires new subs to pay for 1 year, to buy them time. That's how they've gotten by in the past a few times, only to have those new subs come back and bite them via a higher expense (hence shareholders have been suffering).
No. I'm not currently shorting and have never shorted HMNY.
I've been around since last fall when this stock was $3. I'll be around IF HMNY ever makes it. Will you? Most longs give up and disappear for you.
And negative commentary? These are facts my friend. Do you look at your bank statement and disagree with it? Do you look at a math equation showing $1 - $1 = $0 and disagree with it? Do you call your bank or credit card evil when it's you who used up all the money? So why would you "deliver negative commentary" towards me when I'm just simply showing you the math?
Have you done the math?
Have you even look at what I put together?
Do you realize my math explains why HMNY did the June Offering and was desperate to sell Series A Preferred Shares?
Do you realize my math explains the 35% cost reduction HMNY put forth in their SEC filings in early May?
Do you realize the math shows they will be out of cash before the Special Meeting on July 23rd?
Do you realize current generation shareholders are in big trouble like previous generation shareholders? It is my educated opinion that current generation shareholders will be wiped out, as in zero shares left or almost $0 dollars left before this is over.
Thanks. Let me know what isn't clear or is incorrect and I'll re-assess and update as appropriate.
My motivation is to save misguided souls. The math does not lie. I am not your enemy. Ted Farnsworth and HMNY is. Do not kill the messenger. The messenger is simply opening your eyes to the truth. The numbers do not lie. I. Am. Not. The. Enemy.
The $8.95 is to account for the higher fee of $9.95 and discounts HMNY has given to annual subscribers and other discounts. The $8.95 is just a best guess number. It's hard to determine an exact number that'll be accurate without being involved in their sales department. However, I've already tried $7.95 and $9.95 and neither numbers matter when it's just $1 difference. If the fee is increased to $14.95 however, the cash on hand starts to drastically change.
(Directed at someone else) As for the 35% cost reduction, at first I assumed HMNY was lying. However, my calculations confirm with their assertion. $62.67 million (April calculation) reduced by 35% = $40.4 million, or close to the $40 million they claim for May. All the numbers work out.
I've updated the link to show a note on the $8.95 fee to explain why it's not $9.95.
Here's my calculations on HMNY's remaining cash on hand, and it's cash deficit (gross loss) per month, and projected July gross month. This does not take into any "revenue from advertisements" or "interest expenses". This is strictly based off SEC filings, HMNY news official articles, some math logic, and thinking outside the box.
To see the comments, if you have MS Excel, download the Excel file, open it and click "Enable Editing".
If you have a Google account already logged in, you may be able to see comments if you click on each cell with a triangle.
Actual file you can view/download:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YqMArmO_wIlZb1tItZkHMnO4gdU1RK_W/view?usp=sharing
What it should look like (page 1 of 2):
https://photos.app.goo.gl/pKh2zkbcanJJNRsb8
Page 2 of 2:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/si198rTG2HPe4aGN6
I'm almost done calculating HMNY's cash on hand. It's VERY disturbing guys. VERY. I would NOT want to be a long. Will be posting soon.
PennyWorld,
I'm here to warn others. Nothing more. Nothing less. For every hater, there's someone who finally sees the truth and escapes Ted's cycle of shame. They are grateful for someone showing them the truth and not just a bunch of pumping monkeys with zero facts.
There is no likelihood of anything except more dilution. That is the probability. There is no other probability. What you talk about are simply possibilities. There's a possibility that one day we'll all float "up" relative to the Earth as the Earth and a black hole moves toward each other, but that's not a very high probability.
BTW, new 52-week lows next week. Have a great weekend!
Remember my PPS prediction?
BEFORE: https://photos.app.goo.gl/jeG63EJ2viAeDpDw5
AFTER (updated): https://photos.app.goo.gl/P6zmV1o2pL9mEt6Q7
The only thing keeping the stock down is the massive ATM dilution and 5 BILLION SHARE authorization. There's a reason why they are authorizing 5 BILLION SHARES, from 500 THOUSAND. Let me know when you figure out the reason. Hint: I already know why.
You mistake Ted Farnsworth for someone who cares. He has said he doesn't care about profitability, even more about revenue and will sell shares if he has to. He gave fair warning. People chose to ignore him.
See you at 3.8 cents before November.
Are you done trying to mislead misguided buyers yet?
First honest post from you...
Notice these crooks changed the record date holder who can vote from June 25 (have to buy on June 21) to June 29 (have to buy by 27). June 27 coincidentally was the day the stock price was at the lowest. I bet you these manipulators got stuck holding the bag and they couldn't keep selling to lose money so they simply change the rules to allow them to be able to vote. They sold the next day just as I previously predicted when the stock got ran up so they could get out with a profit or break even. Amazing how they get away with this stuff.
They stopped doing ATM a few weeks ago when they reached the share limit.
Remember, in any chemical reaction equation (Oxygen and Hydrogen into water for example), such as H + 0 = H20, the limiting reagent is the reagent with the least amount of units.
For example, if it requires 2 Hydrogen atoms and 1 Oxygen atom to form water, if there's 2 billion Hydrogen atoms and 2 billion Oxygen atoms, at most, it can only form 1 billion water molecules.
The limitation in the ATM dilution was:
$150 million
-or-
Allowed outstanding shares, which is 500 million authorized shares - 277 million shares reserved for note holders = ~223 million shares.
They had to stop diluting or else they would default and HMNY owes all the money back immediately.
Effectively, the limiting component here was the share count. They somehow managed to go to 227 shares outstanding. In fact, after note holders and HMNY agreed to let them have like 23 million shares or whatever, they are now at 250 million shares or so outstanding.
Now the kicker as I pointed out before is the latest SEC filing talks about HMNY being able to sell shares without shareholder approval. I don't know what that means but that sounds like they are re-doing ATM dilution again. How they can legally do that? I don't know.
See my post history man. This is why so many misguided longs are surprised when Ted Farnsworth slaps them on the side of the head.