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If you're new here, and you plan on buying or you've bought, you had better start reading my post history REALLY fast.
This is the worst fall of a stock I've ever seen or researched. EVER. BY FAR. The fastest fall and destruction of shareholders, all because of one man who has a history of wiping out every company he's ever touched or started: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-30/man-behind-1-151-stock-rally-has-overseen-99-wipeouts-in-past
What to expect from the numbers here are listed below. The numbers allowed me to calculate HMNY outstanding shares, MoviePass subscribers, and predict HMNY out of money before July 23rd's meeting with astonishing accuracy. It tells us where HMNY is headed.
1. Massive dilution going forward as the stock keeps dropping, into the hundreds of millions of shares and then billions. They can't do a reverse split yet. Look at my prior posts for an explanation. Eventually this puppy will hit the OTC and pink sheets. Their cash in the bank has dropped from high double digit millions to single millions to literally nothing.
2. MoviePass will piss off a lot of subs and get into legal trouble with their current tactics of false advertisements.
3. Dwindling MoviePass sub count from upset subscribers who can't use the service.
4. With no one trusting shady Ted Farnsworth, there'll be no more deep pocket note holders to step in to help. Hudson Bay with their 24%+ short term interest charging loans are the only things available to HMNY.
5. With all the lies spewed by Ted and this garnering national attention, the SEC will be forced to investigate soon. Possible halt to the stock any day now. Anyone who's been in a halted stock by the SEC knows how nasty the feeling is, and how uncertain it is that you'll ever see your money again.
Finally, we have yet to see any details on the 51% acquisition of Emmett/Oasis, which I've already proven mathematically, like all of Ted Farnsworth's other side projects, it's a money-loser, meant on destroying shareholders, for the enjoyment of Ted. I'm not sure how he's getting away with this legally.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/RoBpgFBADsaJ3Do2A
So many new faces here who have no clue what happened or what will happen. So sad. All the prior pumpers dead or dying, most missing from the board here. Just like $DCTH, there will be no one left to warn other victims. RIP $DCTH 2.0
At the rate their stock price has dropped, they'll be selling millions of shares per day just to stay afloat, diluting the hell out of bagholders and killing generation after generation of longs, wiped out completely. What a shame. Ted the milkman Farnsworth is one hell of a conman. This is the CEO that's responsible for the worst stock crash in history that I know of. Not only has the stock fallen 99% in a week, it fell from over 99.9% before then.
To put it into perspective, at yesterday's close of 0.228 with a 1 for 250 reverse split, the stock has fallen from $38.86 from its all time high down to 0.000912, or less than 1/10th OF A PENNY, or fallen -99.9977%. $10K investment at the high (257 shares) would now be worth 1 share (due to the 1 for 250 reverse split, this poor fool would be left with only 1 share left), at a "value" (if you can even call it that) of less than 1/10th OF A PENNY. Anyone with less than 250 shares during the reverse split had ZERO shares, as in completely wipe out as I've been warning these bagholders for months and months. Such a tragedy.
In a recent interview, when asked about his thoughts about his company's stock price losing 99% value in just a few days, Ted Farnsworth was quoted as saying he wasn't worried about the dwindling cash position, or about revenue and will continue to sell HMNY stock shares as necessary. Mitch just so happened to walked through the door around the same time and the two were caught still very excited and not worried about the dwindling cash position.
http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/17300000/Barney-Ted-barney-and-ted-17345918-355-200.gif
LMAO!!!! No. They're still only on the $60 or so million of the $150 million ATM. Not even close. The stock price has tanked so much they won't be able to milk the $1.2 billion anymore. I already proven Oasis/Emmett is mathematically a money-losing scheme, guaranteed to suck shareholders dry like all other Farnsworth side jobs, and I've also proven in my other post that a reverse split won't happen anytime soon because it has to be timed just perfectly.
When you're losing 99% of your value in a week, day after day, yeah, OTC is the only place. They'll continue to use MP subs until there's no more subs. What they're doing is also illegal.
BREAKING NEWS: HMNY discloses why they're out of money. Their subsidiary showed us a list of their 2018 movies list. They were spending money making movies!
https://photos.app.goo.gl/D6J815JHEy3bL2xd6
Apparently Farnsworth has taken on yet another side project acquisition: Proving the Earth is flat. Going to make us some MAAADD money!
Also, in other news, you guys know it was Ted's anger towards AMC that led him on this path of vengeance and destruction of shareholders, dragging shareholders and wiping out generation after generation of shareholders to do his bidding of a large MP sub count to hit back at AMC, right? That and his shady, pyramid scheming ways. Here's my breakdown of what's been happening. It predicts spot on why HMNY/MoviePass are doing what they're doing, when they're doing it.
Whenever a new movie release is coming out, they have to dilute the hell out of shareholders and sometime beg Hudson Bay for cash. The $20.5 million in June, where they sold Series A Preferred Shares to Hudson Bay was because they had diluted a s.[]-[]iTton of ATM dilution already, but had both Incredible 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom come out. As a result, they had to get that $20.5 million from Hudson Bay in case Jurassic World was a big hit.
This last time they begged Hudson Bay for money on July 13rd was because Hotel Transylvania was released.
And of course, this time, it was because they got freaked out that the stock tanked so fast after the R/S that they didn't ATM sell and then realized they were in deep doooooodoo because Mission Impossible was coming out. I figured them out. LOL. They sold LESS shares than I thought they did, so they are in deeper trouble from having less money than I thought.
They will continue to alienate their MP subs and have more quit. Maybe that is their goal, so that there's less expense, who knows? But their greed got the best of them. Mitch let Ted run the show and Ted took it wherever his lyn' shady past took him. They should have never let it get this bad. They should have increased sub fees back in January along with curbing abuse and excessive use, not wait until May, and especially not wait until August. Man, I KNEW the stock price would go under 10 cents in July. I just didn't know it would be a fraction of a penny. It's worse than even I can calculate for these clowns. Enjoy losing money. Get on the short bus special! As MP is still pumping, this is just the beginning (of lots of pain and suffering!)
I twweeted this to MoviePass and HMNY. No response from them both LOL. If you're questioning what the hey is going on with MP? Just look at my analysis. It explains EVERYTHING. The last Hudson Bay loan begging was done because Mission Impossible was coming out lol. At the last minute, they decided they'll just "fix the glitch" (Office Space, the movie if you've seen it) by not showing Mission Impossible at all!
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ndy76cFNbsA2EeQP6
https://photos.app.goo.gl/8a79SgvTMasgwLgHA
On a serious note, I'm starting a business. I'm willing to accept payment from you guys, for goods and products that I'll DENY you. Anyone up for it? Please tell your friends and family.
Yep I cancelled mine. Not going to support these crooks.
What I find ironic is their most recent PR propaganda talked about how MP subs do this and that, but they forgot to mention they're only allowing subs to check into movies after they reset their throttling right after midnight local time. You had better hope there's a 12:30 am showing you can get to before your 30 mins run out LOL. And usually the location is like 15 miles away because they've removed all local close by locations. AND they'll surge price charge you even when you're the only one in the movie theater LOL.
It looks like they're intentionally trying to lose subscribers to shave off expense.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/WnAYs5fhMj9yui1x5
Unreal. They're still pumping too.
https://twitter.com/moviepass/status/1024691533088534528?s=21
So just to be clear, their options are:
1. Keep at this circus and keep restricting users until here's no more users left. If there's no more subscribers left, there's no more cost, except for Lyn' Ted's side projects which he wasted money on. To this day, RedZone is still sucking up money. Shareholders lose.
2. Raise MP prices to $20 and lost a ton of subs and hope they might keep like 50K subs. Shareholders lose.
3. Delist to the OTC. There's no liquidity there to cover for the $20-$50 million losses per month dilution, so eventually the stock goes to the pink sheets and trades for 0.0001 or something, and everyone leaves/quits. Shareholders lose.
Obviously there's other scenarios, but either way, shareholders lose. Incompetent and delusional management ran this into the ground.
They can't. There's no point in a reverse split right now. It doesn't gain them any benefit. With about 7 million shares, a reverse split can bring up the share price only a little because they still need a little more than 1 million shares to remain on the Nasdaq. Plus the share price will immediately just tank, so a R/S will NOT benefit or happen anytime soon. These clowns knew this, so they stopped ATM diluting for a few days and ran out of money to pay for movies. Then they started losing subs so they had to borrow and ATM dilute to pay back the borrowings + a hefty amount. Idiots.
They'd have to dilute the hell out of shareholders into the BILLIONS of shares, and hopefully have enough cash after doing so (while restricting movies and losing subs and therefore losing expenses) and THEN do another reverse split. But that's assuming the stock price doesn't tank down into super low, such as 0.001. Then they'd need to do a 1 for 20,000 reverse split just to bring it up to $20.
ASSUME they lose a shit ton of subs and therefore lower the cost (like down to 500K subs or 1 million at most), and then assume they diluted the F out of shareholders and wipe out a zillion more baggies, and then assume they have like 4 billion shares outstanding diluted at average of like 2 cents ($80 million bucks in the bank), if they reverse split by 20,000, that brings the OS shares from 4 billion to 200K, which means they are NOT abiding by Nasdaq's requirement of like 1.25 million shares or so publicly trade, so therefore they can only do a reverse split of something like 1 for 2,500 (which means 4 billion shares / 2500 = 1.6 million shares outstanding).
But then again, the price would need to be above $1 significantly...
So... again, assume they want the stock price at least around $7, that works out to be that they'd need to do the reverse split of 1 for 2500 BEFORE the stock price goes below 0.003.
So, to recap, 4 billion shares outstanding, at 0.0003, with a reverse split of 1 for 2,500 =
1. 1.6 million shares (OK with Nasdaq Listing requirements)
2. $7.5 per share price
As you can see, it becomes a wild mess for them trying to time this, and have enough shares diluted, and having it at the exact right PPS, and do the exact reverse split ratio AND have money in the bank and other non-money losing schemes out of the way/positive cash flow so that shareholders simply just don't punish them again.
They are royally screwed in, other words. They did this to themselves. Ted the Lyn' Milkman Farnsworth and his shady past is to blame. He blatantly said he didn't care about profit or revenue and will sell shares if he has to. He has repeatedly said he wasn't worried about the lack of cash, and Mitch and he both kept insisting $10 would work, and even lowered it to $7. COMPLETE MORONS. This idiot Ted Farnsworth belongs behind bars where he can't hurt anyone. He's wiped out half a dozen companies with his pyramid scheming ways.
So right now the only thing that'll help is: GET PROFITABLE AND STOP RAPING SHAREHOLDERS. After like 10 generations of shareholders are wiped out, there's no more trust. Otherwise, it's over.
Sadly, that is a correct assessment in that this is his mess and his ego and recklessness, and lack of remorse will not allow him to step down.
HMNY did hire him. HMNY, as a company, assuming there are no restrictions in place, would be the only ones who may be able to do something, assuming they even care. If they don't, then it's over.
The bottom is when Ted Farnsworth is fired
This explains it all, all of HMNY/MoviePass' actions, EVERYTHING.
Updated it to reflect this morning's 8-K which I didn't previously see. This all makes sense now. So they did stop ATM last week after seeing the stock price tank hoping they'd not add to the carnage but that didn't help and since they didn't sell when it was higher, now that it's lower, they had to unload over 4+ million shares yesterday. This is all speculative on how many shares they actually sold on 7-25, and how much reduction they did on the "Cash Deficit" column, which is what I used to donate paying MP sub movie tickets. But my assumptions were correct that they repaid Hudson Bay back yesterday with a large ATM dilution (smaller than I thought), and explains why they're restricting newer releases etc. in the mean time, in order to "cut costs".
With a $14.95 fee, it's more manageable, but they still need to limit it to 10 movies a month. Only abusers and heavy users go that many times. Most normal human beings don't even have the time to go 0-4 times a month. They're taking the right steps, but definitely getting rid of Ted Farnsworth and his fruitless acquisitions will give the stock a lot more confidence. So I stick to my prior analysis to fire Ted Farnsworth.
Click the links to see the images:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/MsBnX8HqZX2wCZcA9 (top half, not as important)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/v8AmU4zi2icCnkXW9 (bottom half, more important & explains all the recent actions from HMNY/MoviePass)
Yes, but you can't use the market cap because of the nature of this beast. It's got massive losses each month, with no tangible assets (a bunch of MP subs quit). They're diluting the hell out of shareholders, destroying generation after generation of shareholders. Market cap means exactly squat right now. The dilution MUST STOP or slow down drastically. Period.
I actually agree. If they do all of the following, I wouldn't be surprised if the stock does a 1,000% jump:
1. Fire Ted Farnsworth. He's the reason there's few deep pocket investors willing to help. They don't trust him.
2. Increase MP sub price to $14.95 and stops doing stupid ass cheap deals. Just let the service grow naturally. Limit it to 10 movies a month so abusers stop abusing the system.
3. Get rid of Emmett/Oasis. I still think this is a horrible idea.
4. Stop being aggressive asshats and attacking every movie theater chain. If they don't care about you, just ignore them until you get a high enough sub to do whatever you want. If you're right, you don't need to be pestering them and hiring paid pumpers to bash them 24/7.
Wow so anyways, I believe I've pieced together the puzzle. I went back and re-did all the ATM dilution, all the news, as well as the various event dates, as reported by SEC filings and publicly available data. It's an eye opener. It all makes sense now. I know what Warren Buffet's late wife means now when she said everything is there but you just have to read it, and Warren Buffet loves it because it's an even playing field game to him. LOL! I still think we'll probably see a technical bounce here soon, if I'm right. Maybe. But, all the numbers I'm seeing explains EVERYTHING, all their actions, from their ATM dilutions to their Hudson Bay dealings, everything.
After plugging in $14.95 (and even as low as $13) into my calculations, it looks much better. Less dilution. Still a little, but much less. If they stopped doing stupid /\ss $6.95 packages and Ted stops effen' around with his other money-wasting acquisitions, it'll even be better. :)
So basically they did MASSIVE ATM dilution yesterday to ensure their month end balance looks good for the next SEC filing. If I'm right on my calculations, that means they should have anywhere from $12-$18 million in the bank and MP app should start working again "more" properly today. This is accounting for repaying all of Hudson Bay's $6.2 amount back. Shame on HMNY and MoviePass. They should not have let it gotten this bad.
A true technical bounce could hit $10, but this isn't your normal stock, so it probably won't get that high, unless Ted Farnsworth gets fired.
I agree. A technical bounce is in order.
How are you going to bring anyone to the movies when people cancel MP because they CAN'T go on opening weekends? Can't eat your cake if you don't have one to start with.
Plus the surge price BS has to go. Simply limit the damn thing. Abusers and excessive users who cost MP money will leave. Period. You want the people who don't abuse it, not the abusers.
Last post of the day... I'm out of posts lol
If you're a long, I suggest you start spamming HMNY emails to fire Ted Farnsworth. He's so shady that no accredited investor is wiling to work with HMNY now. He's the mastermind of this money-losing scheme, along with all the money-losing acquisitions that he does. Better stop buying the stock and start emailing if you're serious about the stock price.
The sentiment along will push the stock price up high enough that ATM dilution won't be as detrimental.
HMNY instructs Canaccord to sell if the price is above X amount. Canaccord makes all the daily decisions on the actual selling. Canaccord gets 5% commission on the $150 million ATM so it doesn't matter what they sell it at, as long as all $150 million ATM is used up.
In other words, Canaccord doesn't care, and HMNY management is clueless.
I don't think they ATM diluted on Thursday or Friday. For sure yesterday (for themselves) and today (for Hudson Bay).
Without the company dumping, we'd have seen a good technical bounce. The company is the reason it's going lower.
They can't. If it goes up too much, bagholders sell off. Since they need a ton of money, they sell a bunch, scaring bagholders to sell more. It's a horrible scenario to be in they put themselves into.
It's all about psychology. Do you sell first? Or do you let someone else sell first and then you sell for less?
I warned peeps.... I would NOT touch this stock unless Ted Farnsworth gets fired. There is NO STOCK PRICE, NO SUB PENNY amount that's safe when Shifty, Trusty ol' Ted is in charge. Period.
See my post history. I already determined that I believe they stopped selling ATM shares on Thursday and Friday in an attempt to NOT lower the stock price, only to see it go down faster than Stormy Daniels, and thus they ran out of cash, got on their hands and knees to beg Hudson Bay for an unfavorable loan, which starting TODAY they have to pay them back with any ATM dilution sales.
They started ATM selling again yesterday after the catastrophe over the weekend where they hid theater locations, Mission Impossible, acted as if it was a technical issue but reopened the app for business after midnight, until budget money ran out for the day etc. They haven't begged Hudson Bay for money yet, confirming they did ATM dilution yesterday as I predicted and today to pay Hudson Bay back.
They pumped the $15 change to sell stock in order to pay Hudson Bay back. If they don't, Hudson Bay gets MoviePass. Then they dumped. They'll continue to dump because of all the chargebacks from credit card companies, banks and Costco from MP cancellations. It's possible all the chargebacks may equate up to a whole month's deficit, depending on how many people cancelled.
The real question? Which customers did they lose FOREVER?
I bet you, we'll know if they get desperate if they change the terms and agreements to allow cancelled subs to re-join. We may even get a little email to rejoin. I cancelled so we'll see what happened. I didn't pay NOT to see new releases and be lied to.
To be fair, I plugged $13.95 into my calculations and HMNY's financials look much better. They will still bleed money but not as much. But they've lost a lot of MP subs from the recent lying about "technical issues" and hiding of various things in the app. Also, blocking out big new release hits is a horrible idea. If people can't go with their friends and family without having to dish out more money, they'll simply cancel. It remains to be seen how many subs they lost and will have lost FOREVER, especially word of mouth advertisement. The damage cannot be undone, and this blocking of new releases is going to make or break them.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/2pboHPHn4tNxmgFE9
MP subscribers "are twice as likely to go on opening weekend". This means blocking new releases = death of MP
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/moviepass-poll-subscribers-see-far-more-films-go-alone-midweek-1104829
I had 3 requirements for HMNY and possibly therefore MP to survive. So far only 1 of the 3 requirements have come to pass, surging the stock price momentarily. If all three happens, we see a 1,000%+ increase easily. They are:
1. Fire Ted Farnsworth.
2. Increase MP sub fee to $14.95 w/10 movie limits per month.
3. Cancel the Emmett/Oasis money-losing acquisition.
Shareholders will lose so long as Ted Farnsworth is in charge. Knowing shady trusty ol' Ted Farnsworth, any surplus in cash, he'll use to do money-losing acquisitions. He's never dealt with that much money before. He needs to go. Period.
Introducing movieIntermittentCrash!
https://photos.app.goo.gl/FnpMGu1fw9xv7UR7A
Even if it trades over $1, they've lost confidence of MP subs whom they lied to in order to save a little cash, and they've lost all their shareholders. It's over. The other Nasdaq Listing Requirements will kill them. They know this. Read my write-up. Their SEC filings confirm they know it, hence why they stopped selling ATM on Thurs and Friday in hopes the PPS would go back up, which it did not.
MoviePass Films just released 2018 movies! They are (not in any order):
1. MovieCrash
2. Bloodbath, the Saga
3. PennyStocks R Us: the road to bankruptcy or OTC
4. Epic Fail 3.0
5. Inside Story: The art of robbing shareholders
6. Lied to, Again IV
7. There and Back Again (from rags to riches back to rags)
8. Hmmm How did they pull it off?
9. You've been Farnsworthed!
To da moon!!!
I don't. I already knew it was coming because they need money being they probably didn't sell Thursday or Friday in hopes of keeping the stock price up. Today, they have no choice. Tomorrow's proceeds goes straight to Hudson Bay first.
Here's my write up on HMNY's current predicament. They had a chance and they blew it. If news came out that Ted Farnsworth was fired and MP prices were increased, the stock price will probably spike high and fast.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/5imw4bDhPX9WLzZF7
https://photos.app.goo.gl/2XvUaWjwAYBb2irC9
Not when they're out of money.
This is a GREAT time to do some research on Ted Farnsworth:
They need to sell for today's expenses & the next few days. Starting tomorrow, all ATM sales goes to Hudson Bay first. Today, they will massively dilute since I don't think they did on Thursday and Friday.
"All proceeds received by the Company on or after July 31, 2018 from sales of common stock under its outstanding at-the-market offering (the “ATM Offering”) pursuant to the Equity Distribution Agreement, dated as of April 18, 2018 (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) between the Company and Canaccord Genuity LLC, must be applied against any Initial Principal until no Initial Principal remains outstanding, and thereafter, against any remaining amounts due under the Demand Note."
If HMNY didn't sell like I think they didn't on Thursday and Friday, and are selling now for today's use AND selling some more to cushion for repaying Hudson Bay back, and assume they burn about $1 million a day on the weekdays ($3.5 million on weekend days), at a price of about $1.3 average, if they need about $4 million today, they only need to sell about 3 million+ shares. Don't forget, they need to sell at least $6.2 million worth starting tomorrow and after to repay Hudson Bay back *AND* still be able to keep the lights on. Expect "mysterious intermittent outages" to continue for the foreseeable future and more loss of MP subs.
They *SHOULD* be around 3.4 million MP subs by now, but at this rate, they are probably under 3 million now and counting down each day they lie about their outage and do ridiculous surge prices of $8 on 1 month old movies.
I think the company is dumping today after seeing what happened Friday and the weekend. I think they didn't sell anything Thurs or Friday.
So, the short version is I believe HMNY got scared the daylights out of them after the stock tanked -50% the first day after the reverse split. Their SEC filing states they can instruct Canaccord NOT to sell under a certain price. I believe they did ATM dilution on this first day only. I believe they stopped the second day, leading to the "intermittent outages" I predicted TWO WEEKS ago, on day 2. On day 3, they got on their hands and knees and begged Hudson Bay for money, hoping the stock price wouldn't tank much, but BAM -70%. So then they tried to conserve the $5 million borrowed by causing more "outages", removing close by theaters, throwing errors like I got on my app that I wasn't logged in etc. BTW, I cancelled my accounts upon this lying of theirs.
So now, they are questioning themselves: Should we ATM dilute or not?
They don't want to see the stock price drop because they need the stock price up, to fund this massive money-losing business. They know the Nasdaq has many listing requirements they WILL NOT MEET if the stock price keeps dropping that's NOT related to the price itself.
It's over. The only way to scrap this now is fire Ted Farnsworth. I don't know if they'll do that.
I sent the full version of my thoughts to my subs. HMNYQ here we come.
Except, they didn't. The first massive tankage of -50% the first day of the reverse split scared the living daylights out of them. They didn't sell anything on the second day, thus the intermittent "outages" I predicted 2 weeks prior started that second day.
I wouldn't touch unless Ted Farnsworth gets fired.
The only time to buy this stock is: WHEN TED FARNSWORTH GETS FIRED. See for yourself. Farnsworth speaks for himself:
I have my suspicions and some SEC filings to back that up, as well as corroboration from what we've seen the past few days. So far I've been like 95% correct about HMNY. After this weekend's fiasco and Friday's fiasco, they may not have an option but to restart ATM dilution again.