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IS ANYONE A LEAD PLAINTIFF?
If you are, give this to your lawyer. Scroll down to the last paragraph and sentence.
https://www.theringer.com/movies/2018/5/7/17325946/moviepass-subscription-plan-avengers-infinity-war-future
This one too:
https://www.businessinsider.com/moviepass-owner-financial-statement-should-scare-investors-2018-4
Can't wait for the 10-Q to come out. The numbers will be HORRIFYING. Anyone wanna place guesses on what it'll look like? I say it's going to be something like this:
Subscription: $66 million
Marketing and promotional services: $2.5 million
=============================
Total Revenues: $68.5 million
-Cost of revenue: $186 million
============================
Gross (Loss) Profit: ($117.5) million
-Total Operating Expenses (Selling, general & administrative, R&D etc.): $55 million
============================
Loss from Operations: ($172.5) million
-Other Expenses (interest expenses, fancy Enron-style accounting):
============================
Net Loss: (Doesn't matter. What matters is the operating loss)
If the Loss Report comes out tonight, I think we're at 70 million outstanding shares. If next week, I'd have to re-assess trading action on Friday.
Whoever gets the closest on these figures get bragging rights!
Yeah I think they've:
1. Sold a lot of shares above 15 cents on the pump on Monday so they have the cash now for a few more days. I think they learned from last time that you don't want to wait for the stock to tank to sell, that you should sell higher, for less shares.
2. Lowered cost enough they expect little dilution. That's just my educated guess. I don't think they've diluted the last three days. The selling I think is a combination of shorts and panicked longs trapped above 10 cents.
PPS prediction is hard because you have to remember that PPS is based on everyone. Not everyone understands what's going on. Probably 99%% of the people have NOT done real DD and even more have not done any calculations at all. People just trade on emotions. So PPS will be wild until more reports come in confirming various numbers.
Also, because of both HMNY and MoviePass putting itself in this predicament, there's less trust, so until there's trust, it'll suffer. As it suffers, it can't fund itself, leading to the death spiral we saw. We'd need another few months to confirm all the numbers, which will then lead to trusts, higher prices etc.
That's it. I didn't even include them. That's just a bonus.
I'm pretty sure I do more research than like 99% of HMNY shareholders, combined
I let my calculations and historical posts do the talking. ;) So far I've been spot on on almost everything.
Correct. We need to know what the outstanding shares are :) 10-Q soon will tell. I suspect they stopped ATM dilution the last two days because they diluted a lot on Monday during the pop, enough to cover a few days.
Well, I previously posted that if we just based it off dilution alone, this should be trading in the 50 cent range. However, due to the massive ATM dilutions and the nasty reverse split, most people freaked out and we lost -99.6%+ after the reverse split, and sort of rightly so, since the cash burn was like $50 million a month, which was COMPLETELY unsustainable.
With this new model (6+ months from now), and assuming they don't dilute too much, I can see $1+. It'll all depend on the outstanding shares. We'll know that soon when the 10-Q is released. I *THINK* per my calculations the ATM shares are about 70 million right now. I hope I'm wrong. If the shares are less, obviously worth more than $1. If the shares are more, then worth less. But, since the market is forward-looking, it'll depend on if MoviePass can really get more ad deals.
I sent them suggestions of enabling ads on the phone and clicking on it as an OPTIONAL and NOT mandatory thing, in order to gain revenue for subs to see more movies. We'll see what they do or don't do.
MY CALCULATIONS MATCHES MITCH LOWE'S STATEMENTS
To understand my calculations, you MUST HAVE HAD LISTENED TO MITCH LOWE'S INTERVIEW from Cheddar Live's Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/198884207312712/videos/394274527773678/
You must have also listened (a little) to the CNN Mitch Lowe interview: https://money.cnn.com/investing/markets-now/?iid=EL
So... I finished my calculations of Mitch's interviews yesterday. This first image is THE OLD MONEY-LOSING MODEL, withOUT any reduced costs. I did some math checks to confirm my calculations were accurate, and compared it to Q1 numbers etc. It seems to be correct. Let me know if you've got suggestions or spot a mistake. It DOES list a section on the right of what I believe Mitch said when he mentioned a -60% reduction in the monthly cash deficit (which I think is the Gross Loss). They never really explained what "cash deficit" is, so it could be the GROSS LOSS, or the OPERATING LOSS.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/rhJfuBjscLCPzSAp6
This next image below is with the -60% reduction in the monthly deficit (which I believe is them reducing access to certain movies), thus also reduces the "ticket sales" for MP subs. Accordingly I've reduced the 1.35 casual user number to 1.1. Also, this is assuming close to a year from now when the price is $9.95 (assuming they don't freaking give deep discounts). Also, their Q1 10-Q showed a little over a million or so in ad revenue, so I expect that to go up slightly to help
FINALLY, I've also included the 3 movie limit (i.e. basically meaning ALL Heavy Users cancel and therefore they drop down from 3+ million to high 2+ million sub count. This is the current sub count, based on what Mitch Lowe said. However, a year from now, obviously there should be more subs.)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/97Xrfva1YHRZktH86
I've said before their ONLY option to dig themselves out of a grave is to get profitable and stop ATM dilution. It looks like we are now heading in the right direction. HMNY/MoviePass may yet be saved.
If the images are blurry, on the top right, there should be an option to download the image locally. Otherwise, look me up elsewhere. I've posted these images everywhere.
Where are you getting the $20 million burn rate number from? Last I checked, that burn rate was from way back in early 2018. The current burn rate was about $45 million. If they saved 60%, that's dropped to $18 million burn rate per month. It's still a little more sustainable than $45+ per month. Going to go back and listen to the video real quick if they meant ALL expenses or just cash burn they reduced.
1. Yes they need money for chargebacks
2. Lawyer retainers, possibly, yes, but these lawsuits will go on for years.
Last post of the day. Out of posts. I'm calculating their 60% claim. I think they may be telling the truth.
Quick estimate:
3,000,000 total subs
450,000 heavy users (goes to movies 12 times average a month)
2,550,000 casual users (1-3 times a month, about 1.3x estimate)
Revenue from $8 average monthly fee x 3 million: $24,000,000
Expense for Casuals: $29,835,000
Expense for Heavy Users: $48,600,000
Total Expense: $78,435,000
Heavy Users usage: 61.96%
I don't think they're at 200 million. If they are, what average price do you think they sold it at? If they sold 200 million shares at 10 cents average, that's $20 million. If they sold it at 15 cents, that's $30 million. If they sold at 20 cents, that's $40 million and so on. So, if they really did have 200 million outstanding shares, that means they should have a ton of money, to possibly last a month at the rate they're conserving cash burn. Catch my drift?
To calculate outstanding shares, you MUST know their daily expense. You MUST know why they are selling. It's based on the average share price when the volume is high during the dumps. It's not just based on volume alone. Volume is simply day traders.
For example, on July 31st, the day HMNY was required to repay Hudson Bay back, and they repaid $6.2 million dollars, the stock price near the beginning was around $1.30. Per SEC filings at that point they had 6.67 million shares, which coupled with the 1.685 million and possibly 200K they'd sold on July 25th, that works out to be 4.802 million shares sold. Volume that day was 44.67 million.
% of ATM dilution to daily volume that day was 10.75%, and that was when HMNY absolutely had to sell massive amounts of ATM to repay Hudson Bay. They do NOT burn through $6 million a day, so they would not be unloading this much daily.
Yes, they approved the 5 billion AS increase as well as the reverse split on July 23rd. They needed money (from Mission Impossible being released & Hotel Trans 3 being released just a week earlier) so they effected the reverse split on July 25 and started ATM selling again (by my estimation, roughly 200K shares at around $12) before they got freaked out by the -50% stock tankage that day and stopped. Their SEC filings on the ATM dilution states they can tell Canaccord to stop diluting if they can't sell at or above some price.
As a result of them stopping ATM dilution on the Thursday, July 26, they ran out of money that same Thursday and the MoviePass app died. Then on Friday, July 27, they begged Hudson Bay for an emergency, unfavorable loan. IF they had been selling ATM dilution for few days, they would NOT have had to ask for a loan. It's because they STOPPED ATM dilution, thus leading to running out of cash, thus leading to begging for money. This further caused the stock to tank -70% on July 27, which was EXACTLY what they were trying to avoid.
The 5 billion AS is used as a safeguard in case they get delisted and into the OTC markets. It's also used to protect themselves from a hostile takeover. I've already written about their SEC filing explaining about how they'll use authorized but unissued shares (i.e. the 4.9 billion or so remaining A/S shares) to dilute to prevent the majority shareholder from taking over.
Outstanding shares is probably around 70 million +/- 20 million right now. I believe they diluted about 32 million by Friday and another 35 +/- that was sold on Monday's pop. The higher the price they can sell, the less shares they need to sell. They know this. I've also sent them my calculations :p I don't believe they sold Tuesday or today for obvious reasons as they don't want the stock to keep tanking either, or risk being a hostile takeover target.
That 268 million figure is of July 10th. It's since gone up to 421.25 million immediately before the R/S (July 24). A 1 for 250 reverse split was effected, reducing that figure to 1.685 million as of July 25th. It's in the SEC filings people. Please read them.
Here it is chronologically:
Before R/S: 421.25 million shares at 8.5 cents
After R/S: 1.685 million shares at $21.25
Currently: I believe ~70 million shares +/- 20 million or whatever at 6.75 cents.
If you base it on dilution alone, this should be trading around 51 cents.
If you base it on forward-looking sentiment and assuming they aren't lying and there's much less cash burn, it should be higher.
CASH BURN, or lack thereof, is going to be key.
Basically what I got from Mitch's interview:
1. They still have 3 million subs. (we'll find out in the 10-Q)
2. They are limiting cash burn from heavy users with the 3 limit movie, and focusing on the CASUALS, not the HEAVY users like they originally were going to (i.e. "data crunching numbers).
3. They learned their lesson
I miss anything else?
Better Mitch Lowe Interview:
https://www.facebook.com/cheddarlive/videos/394274527773678/?t=3775
I calculated them to have around 3.4 million subs WITHOUT the issues they've had. It sounds like Mitch confirmed they still have over 3 million subs, which is better than I expected. I also agree with 3 limit movie is the way to go to get rid of excessive users, which was the reason why shareholders got destroyed.
So I did some calculation on AMC A-List. You guys all know I’m pretty bad at my calculations. I just pull random numbers out from my [where the sun don’t shine]. AMC doesn’t have to pay themselves when A-List subs use their services, but they have to pay movie distributors about 50% (more if earlier during the release, less later on). At the average 50%, AMC would be losing money if people went 5 or more times per month. With MoviePass capping it at 3, anyone who wants to go 4 or more 5 (i.e. heavy users) will hit AMC if they have AMC in the area. MoviePass effectively moved their heavy users over to AMC. While it seems like a blessing for AMC, this is actually a curse. The real question is how many casual subs MoviePass lost.
So, assume the average AMC movie ticket is $8.50. If someone went 5 times, that’s $21.25 they now have to pay the movie distributor and AMC loses money. More than 5 times and they start needing more subs to pay for that heavy user. That’s not including newly released movies where AMC has to pay the distributors more, which means more money lost. They HOPE that the sub will buy concessions. If they do, great. If not, then not great.
For those who don’t buy concessions and just watches movies, it’s the company would make more money if someone simply bought 1 single ticket at $8.50 and AMC gets half the cut at $4.25.
So, while there’ll be MoviePass subscribers lost, almost every single heavy user lost who has AMC in their area will switch to AMC. This is a win for MoviePass and a loss for AMC because the problem has always been cash burn, which is what led to the shareholders being wiped out I previously warned months ago.
5.8 cents has to hold. This was the low from last Friday. If it doesn't hold, more pain to come. If it holds, this could be the elusive bottom.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/6YBLK8fkGT69CQr36
Excellent point
This is why people lost all their money with this stock. No one's doing real DD anymore.
"Our stockholders approved the amendment of our Certificate of Incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares of our Common Stock from 500,000,000 to 5,000,000,000 and to increase the total number of authorized shares of capital stock from 502,000,000 to 5,002,000,000. Holders of shares of Common Stock and holders of shares of Preferred Stock voted together as a single class; holders of shares of Common Stock voted separately as a single class; and holders of shares of Preferred Stock voted separately as a single class on this proposal."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040792/000121390018009586/f8k072318a1_heliosandmath.htm
They're either completely naive, or just doing it for a PR stunt so gain notoriety for their own fund. Either way, a bunch of clowns.
The problem is this:
MoviePass had an unsustainable model of unlimited movie viewings (i.e. 30 per month) and had no funding except for HMNY shareholders. Shareholders were milked to death. Generation, after generation, destroyed. Utterly, figuratively, completely. I blame Ted for this.
AMC can start their own because they are their own movie theater. Even if just a single person goes to watch a movie, their movies are being played in their theaters. To get a subscription model of $20 and have people go up to 3 times a week, for MoviePass, would be a money-losing scheme. But for AMC, it's a win/mostly win for them because they get a constant revenue stream AND they do not have to pay theaters for their own subscribers watching movies (except movie distributors about 50% if a major distribution and about 35% if an independent, typically at the beginning of new releases). As movies keep running, theaters get more and more of the cut. So while it's true that they have to give a cut to movie distributors, they do not have to pay the FULL TICKET price like MoviePass, hence they can out compete MoviePass.
What MoviePass is doing is shedding all the abusive users, forcing them to head on to AMC so AMC can lose as much money as possible paying movie distributors. This is smart on MoviePass' part, since it also reduces monthly cash burn for MoviePass. This is the first step in the right direction in a long time for MoviePass/HMNY. But they should have done this LONG ago. Shame on Ted for wanting to do the $9.95 deal and even going as low as $6.95. Shame on him for milking shareholders to death.
I believe from trapped longs who bought high yesterday and panic sold today.
Judging from the double viewing options now as opposed to the single ones before, I suspect there's about ~70 million shares outstanding right now. During the pump and dump on Monday, they must have sold close to 35 million shares around 15 cents, enough to pay for this week's viewings.
The good news is that with the share count just pennies higher, they have to dilute less, meaning they can buy their time better.
Just to put it into perspective, with the PPS at $21.25 before the reverse split, and the share count at around 1.685 million, 1.685m/70m = 2.40714%.
2.40714% x $21.25 = 51.15 cents. This is approximately what the PPS should be right now if we talked about "valuation" assuming the 70 million shares outstanding is correct. If the 3 viewing limit $9.95 plan works out by stopping the bleeding, we may very well be near the bottom here.
I'm going to calculate today how many subs are based on what plans so I can properly identify how much effect the 3 viewing limit $9.95 plan has on the average MP sub fee. Decreasing the limit from unlimited to 3 times per month is the first step in the right direction they've taken in like 9 months, something they should have done a long time ago.
LMAO, any trader could have told Raj where the critical support was. Lower lows and lower highs = bad. Higher highs and higher lows = good.
I doubt it. They started losing people after surge pricing in early July, and then a mass load of people with the outages and the MovieBlock[ing]. It's both a blessing and a curse. Blessing because of less cash burn. Curse because they may have lost casuals. If they lost heavy users, that's fine, but casuals are the ones that make it work.
1. Piss poor, shady management, hell bent on hitting AMC back, intent on growing MP sub with ponzi-scheme styles, milking shareholders dry along the way (rob Peter to pay Paul), until there were no more shareholders to millk dry.
2. UNLIMITED was always going to be a failure. They should have put a limit LONG AGO, not wait until shareholders were wiped out generation after generation and then run out of money, borrow like a bunch of clowns and then their services go into blackout and into life support mode.
Ted Farnsworth should step down (he won't). Mitch Lowe should have stopped listening so much to Ted's lies about how they were going to use the data, blah blah blah. MoviePass was going nowhere so Mitch decided to try something new with Ted Farnsworth, to experiment.
They're just doing shameless self promotion. I left them a long response with questions on their YouTube video. I bet they were shocked and still have no response to my questions.
Triton Funds LLC is clueless. They were founded on April Fools day. 'Nuff said.
The more the alleged buyout is hyped, the less chance any buyout will happen. A hostile takeover or tend offer is best done when a company has issued most of their A/S so they can't protect themselves from the takeover. Ted Farnsworth, as a person (i.e. check his history), will never say yes to a deal. It'll make him look foolish in AMC's eyes, the very group that hwurt Ted's feelings and led him on a rampage of death and destruction with shareholders in the first place that makes Thanos' look like child's play.
I did restart a small position this morning. I still expect the Q2 report will be horrifying at close to -$180 million loss. But I only threw in what I can afford to lose.
Hard to see how much they got from surge pricing, and how many subscribers cancelled because of it. One person personally told me they cancelled because of surge pricing. If you read online, you will see people also said they cancelled because of surge pricing. I suspect MoviePass lost anywhere from 500K to 1 million for them to change their pigheadedness, shareholder-destruction ways and put a cap on limits.
In theory, the less subscribers, the less cost, so they could be break even with limiting viewings like they did. But the real question is: How many casuals who they were making money off, quit?????
Putting a cap will remove abusers and excessive users, which they should have done A LONG TIME ago. They waited until they saw the real pain shareholders have been experiencing for like 10 friggen months. Unacceptable. Ted Farnsworth, if he's a real CEO, should have stepped down already. Any other legit CEO would have stepped down.
Analyzing it. Plus I'm usually on the Yahoo Finance boards, not here :)
See my other post. As I said, #2 in my point is somewhat starting. Capping the limit was always the way to go. I sent Mitch an email last week suggesting capping it at 10 per month. Looks like they went more drastic, which will lower the ATM dilution, which will help the stock price. We'd need to see the financials and SEC reports to calculate what's really happening to get a better picture. A lot of damage already done, but finally they are doing something right for shareholders.
The 3 movie limit is a step in the right direction. They should have done this LONG ago. I suspect they lost a lot of subscribers, forcing them to react. Removing ridiculous Surge Pricing is also good. They noted they've limited new releases for a limited time (obviously for cash reasons), but it sounds like they'll bring back blockbusters. They need to. You can't be blocking those out. Overall, this could be a trend change, yes. We may not know for another month to see what kind of damage was done, but this will ensure they'll stop diluting as much as before. THAT was the problem before: massive dilution without caring for shareholders. That I blame Ted Farnsworth for. We see it in his historical performances with all his other stocks, and we see it in his word choices and his lack of empathy towards shareholders.
Now, what else will make it right for shareholders? If Ted Farnsworth gets fired or steps down. Obviously, that's probably not going to happen.
From what I understand HMNY said no. Also, knowing Ted Farnsworth's history and him as a person, how he treated all the other failed companies and how he'd rather see his stock with other companies go to zero and not sell any, it is my educated opinion that he will let MoviePass burn in failure in the name of him being an entrepreneur instead of handing it off to someone else, even if for a little sum of money (unless it's for like $500 million or something), and be the laughing stock for AMC. His hatred for AMC will not let him lose by letting AMC laugh at him. Having MoviePass succeed under some other management means he loses face to AMC. He won't let that happen.
All this pump did was buy HMNY 1-2 days to dilute more, and is counter-productive against the takeover.
There's no limits to how many times you can do a reverse split. The only limitation are that you must time it right so that you meet all the requirements on the stock exchange. The Nasdaq has many listing requirements, such as minimum outstanding PUBLICLY traded shares, X number of share holders, X number of round lot shareholders (100 shares or more), etc. HMNY knows this. In fact, they detailed it in one of their SEC filings, which I previously wrote up on it here (like usual), and was ignored.
Zack's also confirms this. So as I pointed out in my other post, they must time the reverse split correctly, or they will not meet the minimum requirements set forth by Nasdaq. And, more importantly, they must be profitable before doing another reverse split or else the stock tanks right back down. And finally, again, as I pointed out, they'll want to save it as a last nuke option in case of a hostile takeover. HMNY believes they have a right to do a reverse split based on their SEC filing they noted in September, 2016.
https://finance.zacks.com/opposite-stock-split-3203.html
The reason DRYS and the other Greek shipping stocks can do what they do is because they were incorporated in the Marshall Islands, where there's limited laws to protect shareholders. Because they are technically a foreign entity, the SEC treats them differently. HMNY is incorporated in Delaware so they're subject to more things the SEC can do.
So to all the newbies and misguided longs, I will have to say personally that I would not touch this stock unless the following occurs:
1. Ted Farnsworth is fired or steps down. There will be a YUUUGGEE rally. But I'd only trade it and wouldn't baghold it.
2. MoviePass becomes profitable WITHOUT losing a ton of subs. Shorts will eventually need to cover. We won't know this until months from now and we see more SEC filings detailing their financials and status. There is no other way.
Anyone who's been following my warnings for the past months and months and months, it's been: There is no rush to buy HMNY stock. You can tell who listened and who didn't. Those who didn't listen, I don't see them post anymore.
Yes, which I've listed. But, the alternative is the ol' pulling numbers out from [where the sun don't shine]. How is that any better?
Interestingly, the 1.685 million shares after the reverse split also implies there were 1.685 x 250 = 421.25 million shares outstanding BEFORE the reverse split. Yet, their only SEC filing before this reported 268,749,677 outstanding shares as of July 10. That means between July 11 and July 24, they diluted 152.5 MILLION shares and never reported that except when they alluded to it via the 1.685 million POST-split figure. It's indeed interesting and almost magical, prophetic even, what math can show us, right? This figure and expected net proceeds matches up exactly with the fact that they ran out of money on July 13 and had to get down on their knees and hands to beg Hudson Bay for cash. That was something I incorporated in my figures. The numbers, my friends, do not lie.
31.7 M Calculated Outstanding Shares based on financial need listed in the links below, with explanation to someone who asked me.
Employing any other method would simply be using the age old trick of "pulling numbers out from your [where the sun don't shine]." That rarely works out to be correct. This technique is what I used to calculate 218 million shares outstanding as of June 13 with precision. The company reported in a later SEC filing there were 219+ million shares outstanding as of June 15. I also used other similar "out of the box" techniques to calculate MP subs dead accurate.
You can't base it on the daily traded volume. There are a lot of bagholders and daytraders jumping in on the intraday moves.
For example, July 31, volume was 44.67 million shares that exchanged hands. HMNY reported a total outstanding share count of only 6.69 million shares. With 1.685 million shares already after the reverse split, that means at most between July 25 and July 31, they could have only sold a total NET of 5.005 million shares. You cannot base it off the daily trading volume (unless Canaccord was buying/selling/shorting repeatedly and they only count the FINAL shares they've sold as of the end of that day).
Having said that, without further ado:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/TY4526bqLto1FbzS8
https://photos.app.goo.gl/13pDj3eAvcNyoTvs9
If you have problems seeing the resolution, tap on the image to enlarge it. There should also be an option on the top right to download the image.
This figure could be complicated by the following:
1. How many MP subs have been lost (i.e. lowering the cast deficit per month). They *SHOULD BE* at 3.4 million now. But they've obviously lost a lot from reading social media. Once they report the actual sub count, I'll be able to calculate the sub growth or lack thereof and correct my calculations.
2. How much HMNY is aware they need to save us for the massive chargeback from Costco, credit cards and banks. Costco is known for their lenient refund policy. In fact, I already cancelled my MP I bought through Costco 2-3 months ago when MP refused to send me a replacement card. Costco gave me a FULL 100% refund. Assume 100K subs did a Costco chargeback. That's 100K x $90 = $9 million. And that's not even counting credit card and bank chargebacks.
Once they report official cash deficits and outstanding share counts (which was thrown off by the Hudson Bay borrowing/paying back fiasco), I'll be able to better calculate their true cash deficit and predict future outstanding share dilution.
3. How much money is being wasted on the Emmett/Oasis acquisition and operation. Ted Farnsworth has NEVER DISCLOSED FINANCIALLY the terms involved other than it'll be a combination of "cash and stock".
At this rate of stock price tankage, they are projected to hit the 4-5 billion outstanding share count in 2-3 weeks.
It's important to remember that HMNY will have really 3 reasons to do a reverse split:
1. Remain listed on Nasdaq. They HAVE to time it right & AND they must be profitable or stop diluting at that point, or else it continues to tank fast. See my write-up here: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142613996
2. If they approach 5 billion outstanding shares for the sole reason of continuing to dilute.
3. To protect themselves from a hostile takeover/tender offer. HMNY SEC Form 424B5 dated 7-10-2018, page 11 covers it. I've also previously did a write-up on here to explain it too.
Most who bought high were wiped out with the reverse split. I personally know someone who did buy in the $30s, less than 250 shares of course at that price, and just kept holding on, never selling. On the day of the reverse split, he messaged me that he had no more shares. I've marked off his handle so you can't see:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/fG456nP9BsATVViA6
But no doubt, more bagholders bought on the way down, thinking they'd be rich, and because it tanked so fast, they panicked and didn't sell, didn't have a stop loss, didn't have an exit plan and just now praying it'll go back up. I call that the "Stay and Pray" technique. It rarely works out well. That's why I never get into any stock without an exit plan.
I suspect these people will continue to hold, even the ones from above $20 who have maybe 1-5 shares left after the reverse split will not sell because it costs them MORE to sell than to just hold on and hope/pray.
So, I disagree that there aren't people holding on. There are, because the cost to sell out is more than the cost to hold. They just won't ever see their money back.
And I remind you: HMNY SEC Form 424B5 dated 7-10-2018, page 11 covers it. Ted Farnsworth, as Chairman of the board of directors and CEO was prepared for this battle long before Triton even thought about it. The more Triton and pumpers hype about this, the less chance a buyout will happen as the stock price goes up. If you are all for a buyout, you had better hope the stock price tanks another -99% and more. Otherwise, it won't happen.
Your best option is to do a dump on this Triton pump just like I've been warning people to dump on all the previous pumps.
Trend, my friend, is down. Do not let the daily fluctuations in the stock price fool you. Every support level is turned into a resistance level.
Ever heard of the phrase "Never fight the Feds"? Well now you've heard it from me: "Never fight the trend."