Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
What a bloodbath today. I guess Farnsworth is out milking shareholders again.
Bloodbath Friday when VCs sell after lockout expiration.
I think they'll see a problem with the 1.7 ratio not going down, but rather going up. The heavy users will cancel or chargeback out of frustration, reducing the 1.7 ratio. However, the light users (1-2 times a month) can easily switch to competitors like Sinemia for $3.99-$7.99, leaving only those who go 2-4 times (4 for those who go above 3 and get subsidized tickets through MoviePass), thus increasing the 1.7 ratio to 2.5 or higher.
That's my guess on what might happen. If Sinemia wasn't around, their current tactic might work. But Sinemia around, so that'll throw a wrench in their plan.
Ways to con shareholders and subscribers out of their money. First, they rob shareholders blind, generation after generation wiping them out, and now they rob MoviePass subscribers by MovieBlocking them. They might as well rename themselves to MovieBlock. This right here confirms they think their subscribers are just a bunch of moneys they can persuade into doing whatever and will prevent them from seeing anything good.
"MoviePass subscribers are also more readily influenced by recommendation"
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040792/000121390018009929/f8k073118ex99-_helios.htm
Can anyone spot Bagholder Ben's investing mistakes? https://stocktwits.com/bagholderben
1. Buy hoping for unrealistic expectations like buyouts
2. Don't read SEC fillings
3. Baghold until lose it all
4. Get mad at those trying to save him
Unethical. Should be illegal. Wall street legalized robbing of shareholders.
https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-made-millions-in-fees-selling-collapsing-moviepass-shares-2018-8
I didn't pay $9.95 so I could be MovieBlocked & "enlightened" to see low budget movies. I already cancelled my Costco purchase, and got a FULL refund. I initiated a chargeback on my monthly cards (for family) & will be subscribing to Sinemia. I can pay $3.99-$7.99 since I only go 1-2 times a month. I'm the light using sub MP wants, but lost. If someone goes to the movie a few times more per month and have AMC around, then do AMC.
I suspect HMNY knows the end is near so they're robbing both shareholders and subscribers in an attempt to keep the company going in the event it needs to pay off a lot of lawsuit settlements and chargebacks. I think they're figuring if they're going down in flames, they might as well steal as much money as they can from everyone. What do you expect from the marriage of Muralikrishna Gadiyaram who was the only insider who sold large sums of HMNY stock near the height of all this AND gets paid $225K a year as an "advisor" AND got labeled by the Indian courts as a fraudster? I suspect he actually controls HMNY behind the scenes and is calling all the shots. Their intent is now to simply rob everyone blind, hoping to survive the upcoming battles, and then rename themselves (which they've done plenty of times) and continue on scamming shareholders and all who stand in their way in a few years.
After reading all these responses on MoviePass' Twitter, it's clear that MoviePass had 3.2 million subs when Mitch was talking last week but it's now dwindled near or below 3 million, and will continue to tank, just like this stock. How can anyone in their right mind "invest" in this junk? Only trade. Never bag hold. Do not pull a Bagholder Ben. Do not munson it all.
https://twitter.com/MoviePass/status/1030116867405488129
Downside is you can lose A LOT more than 100% of your current holdings. If you pull a Bagholder Ben from StockTwits, you'll keep averaging down and will lose an unlimited amount of money.
If they hadn't been so greedy about just MP subscribers growth at the expense of shareholder, they could have saved this months ago. They should have put a limit back in January and NOT restrict users from seeing movies they are now, and stopped diluting shareholders to nothing. The bottom line is Ted Farthermost doesn't care. Throughout his career, he's never cared about shareholders. It's his nature. It's like trying to make a tiger not eat raw meat. Not going to happen.
Their 10-K clearly states all the scenarios in which MoviePass would fail. Ted knew all of this because he signs SEC filings. He would have read everything. He intentionally kept milking shareholders until one day it was overdone. Now he has no choice but to accelerate the destruction of shareholders while at the same time robbing everyone blind. Mitch is sent on damage control, but even Mitch is now caught lying with Ted.
When trust in management is gone, it's over. The first confirmation of this was in April when Canaccord was only willing to do $30 million. When ATM dilution was announced, that was the beginning of the end. That's when I started warning people. The price tankage has exceeded even my mental grasp. Just amazing.
"Bob D do you see a reverse split at this level by the end of month or do they wait for some up trend ?"
To understand the answer to this question, we must first understand WHY a company would undergo a reverse split. They are:
1. Remain listed on the Nasdaq
2. Fend off a hostile takeover (i.e. INTENTIONALLY dilute stock to prevent someone from being a majority shareholder)
3. Running out of authorized but unissued shares to dilute (not because they NEED to, but because they can)
Being that HMNY has switched their tactics from merely trying to keep up with expenses, and have instead intentionally chosen to wipe out shareholders by diluting over 629+ million shares in 2 weeks, despite them NOT needing the money, this tells me they have something up their sleeves. What is it? That's the billion dollar question. They must be hording cash to pay for all the legal expenses and chargebacks, or they may have just decided they're f'd and therefore they'll just f the shareholders by robbing them blind while they're at it.
They have no reason for #1 above. Delisting won't happen until December, so they won't care about it. They're not fending off any hostile takeover yet, but they may, if they keep diluting stock until they use up almost all the 5 billion authorized shares. So perhaps #3. However, the real question is: When will they stop their intentional raping of shareholders?
"They seem not to care about the price of there stock. You would think HMNY team would say let’s get this back up to 75 cents then make discussion on next level or then a possible RS. This stock and HMNY have not even grabbed the wheel of an out of control stock and their accounting."
They cared about the stock price at first (only so that they could keep diluting). But you are correct. Now they do not care about the stock price and are unloading at will. The sad thing is misguided shareholders are taking it like a champ, exactly how Ted Farnsworth likes it.
"Shameless management. They could do a lot better. Just my thought. Even at this .03 per share they seem not to care. What’s your thoughts."
Correct. They are shameless. They do not care. Mitch plays the innocent "ask Ted". Ted is dead silent and continues to screw shareholders. They rigged the last vote. They can just do it again, so in my opinion, they are robbing shareholders blind AND doing a two-pronged attack by also robbing subscribers blind. I honestly do not know why Ted and Mitch are not in jail yet.
My thoughts is they are intentionally doing all this now. MoviePass is dead. The heavy users (those who use 4+) will move to AMC, or will max out the 3 times usage and continue getting subsidized movies through MP.
Those who use 1-2 times who get sick of not seeing blockbuster movies, being told of WHAT to watch, WHEN, will quit for Sinemia, which has a MUCH better deal right now.
That'll leave only the 2-3 or more usage people, increasing their average from the old 1.7 to probably 2.5, meaning they're back to losing money. Who wants to stay with MoviePass, pay $9.95, get blocked from seeing good movies (i.e. MovieBlock), blocked from seeing most movies, blocked at multiple viewing times and days, and only see independent and low budget/smaller box office hit movies? Letting people see unlimited movies was stupid. This is even dumber. I predict bankruptcy in less than a year.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/BwJ3yfZHVtRaQpG36
https://photos.app.goo.gl/5wFQW7xuRCLkK8r79
Pay attention to the 1.7 ratio. That was the old ratio in May. That ratio is lower now because they are preventing people from seeing movies. However, once all the light users quit too, and only "moderate" users are around, this number will increase to 2.5 or so, meaning MP is back to losing money.
I'm done for awhile here. Management has proven their intent to destroy and rob shareholders and subscribers alike. I'll check back with you baggies from time to time when I need a good laugh. Management are crooks and this is now just a waste of my time. Good luck gamblers. You will need it because Ted Farnsworth will destroy you. It's his nature. Remember, Olympic sized swimming pool down to 2 gallons.
To put it into perspective, the contiguous landmass of the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) is 2,959,064.44 square miles. The dilution has taken down the value to the area of 9 square miles. That is a square 3 miles on each side. How PATHETIC is that? The best part? Ted's not done. When he's done, the size will probably shrink down to the size of an atom. LOL
See you guys around.
Buy and forget? Tell that to $DCTH victims who have zero shares left after multiple reverse splits and HMNY victims who either have zero shares left after the last reverse split or who will have zero shares after the next reverse split. It's all about opportunity cost. The opportunity cost is too great.
Hard to say. HMNY has changed their tactics. They are no longer just diluting to cover for expenses. They are diluting to destroy shareholders. I explained it in another post. Go through my post history. I'm done analyzing this scam of a stock. Not worth my time. I'm going back to momentum stocks where I can make thousands of % return in a short time. Yes, you heard that right. HMNY has taken up too much of my time. Management are a bunch of crooks and liars.
No. Not at the rate of shareholder destruction. Next week, there'll be 1+ billion shares outstanding.
I don't know which post is the most laughable one being stickied: The $12 PPS in 52 weeks or this post.
"you realize the Q2 burn was only $38M, far below what was expected."
Q2 burn was $38 million? Please explain. The gross loss was $104.6 million and the Loss from operations was $126.6 million. Explain how you got $38 million.
Far below what was expected??? Expected by WHOM? 99.99% of investors had no friggen clue what to expect. This below was MY expectations. As someone who's been doing a lot of calculations, I'm one of the few qualified to "expect" anything. I calculated about $68.5 million revenue. They came in at $74.2 million, better than expected, but NOT "far" from it. I calculated a Cost of Revenue of $186 million. They came in at $178.8 million. Again, not "far" from it. My opearting expense was just a total guess. I had originally expected about $28 million but only added the $55 to include "all other" types of expenses. Better than expected, nice.
I don't see a $38 million Q2 cash burn.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Vk5tJmCndre3iX1S9
"Company has $51M on hand as of 8/9. Forward next 3 months until Nov 9 expenses should be $20m g/a and burn of $20M. So, they have enough to last 3 months, and thats if there is no financing. "
They company does not have $51 million cash "on hand". $26 million was on hand, available for immediate use. The rest is tied up with their processor and cannot be used and abused at will. They did gain from about ZERO dollars to $26 million within a 2 week period. Do you want to guess how? By mainly raiding and robbing shareholders and preventing subscribers from seeing movies. They diluted 629+ MILLION SHARES in a two week period, completely annihilating shareholders in order to steal from shareholders and get that $26 million in the bank. Do you think that's sustainable?
Do you realize they will completely decimate all shareholders and that it appears their intent is to COMPLETELY WIPE OUT ALL SHAREHOLDERS???
How long do you think it will be until they have 1 BILLION, 2 BILLION, 3 BILLION shares?
"starting tomorrow back to any movie 3 movies per month. expect new revenues to begin as they promote."
Expect subscribers to start quitting when they realize they can only see movies they are forced to see, when they are forced to see them. If they had allowed me to see ANY movie, with a 3 movie limit per month, I would have renewed my accounts. Because of their blatant complete disregard for both shareholders AND subscribers, I will not renew my accounts (plural).
"Literally $30M turns this around until profitability where they can start making $4/mo/sub. They will get to 5M subs next year. That is $20M/mo/sub rev and only expense is $20M/quarter g/a."
Who are you trying to convince? Have you actually ran the numbers like I have? At best, even with the VERY BEST scenario, including operating loss, they will still be losing about $17 million PER month. With their shady track record, where do you think they'll get the funding from that? You got it: robbing from shareholders and diluting the stock even more.
They will NOT be "making $4/mo/sub". That's Mitch and Ted's lies to defraud investors. Do you remember when they promised in January, 2018 that MoviePass would no longer burn cash within 60 days????? That puts the timeframe in March, 2018. Did that ever happen?????
"That ends up being $40m/quarter profit run rate by this time next year."
Delusions never end well my friend.
"which is $160M/year run rate. probably $80m adjusted earnings, 15 P/E. $1.2B valuation is what the market eyeing here. "
Tell me... when they dilute 629+ million shares within TWO weeks, and will probably hit the 5 billion mark before September is over, please explain how your value works out.
Here, I will do the math for you, for just RIGHT NOW as it is.
Per the 10-Q filing in August, 2017: "As of August 9, 2017, there were 7,071,799 shares of common stock"
An Olympic sized swimming pool holds 660,253.09 gallons of water.
The dilution from August 9, 2017 to August 13, 2018 was 7.07 million / 636 million / 250 (R/S) * 660,253.09 = 29.37. That means if you had a 29.37 gallon fish tank in August of last year, as of August 13th of this year, it's now grown to an Olympic sized swimming pool. How's that for valuation on the UNFATHOMABLE dilution that's going on (and NOT CLOSE to even being completed)?
Given that their dilution rate vs the trading volume is 35.45%, if we apply that to the days since, this works out to be 23.64 gallons turning into an Olympic sized swimming pool, as of August 16, 2018.
If we talk about the rate at which the stock price has tanked from the all-time intraday high of $38.86 ($9,715 reverse split adjusted), it works out to be 2.11. What that means is that if you had liquid gold filling an entire Olympic sized swimming pool, Ted Farnsworth has stolen almost every gallon of it, and you are now left with only 2.11 gallons as of today's close at 0.031 cents (or 0.0000031909 pre-split - 5 zeros). The $38.86 is now worth 3.2 of TEN THOUSANDTH of ONE penny. That's 3.2 of 10,000th of a penny.
Can you tell me what HMNY will be worth when there's 5 or 50 billion outstanding shares?
No one can be right 100% of the time. I can't be right all the time man. 99% is good enough :p
Short volume may be 29.2 million, but if we use the figures from HMNY's ATM intentional robbing of shareholders, it's 188.29 M shares volume x 35.45% = 66.75 million shares HMNY diluted today.
It's my opinion that HMNY is trying to wipe out current shareholders & rob everyone blind at the same time. It's the only logical thing that explains their current behavior and complete disregard for shareholders AND subscribers.
I think what they're doing is driving the stock price down and intentionally diluting the hell out of everyone and scaring everyone into selling, while at the same time robbing shareholders with the ATM Offering and preventing MP subs from going to the movies at the same time, in an effort to force unlimited heavy users into canceling. This grows their bank balance at the same time. They hope those who are casual users will stay, and if you are a casual but you cancel, they'll simply just sign you right back up without your consent.
Their goal is to amass as much cash as possible in the bank (which explains why they went from ZERO to $26 million in TWO weeks) and needlessly diluted a shit ton of shares, more so than they needed financially. C'mon who dilutes 600+ million shares in 2 friggen weeks? The rate at which they are destroying shareholders intentionally with dilution (and growing money in the bank) is about 35%+ if you do the math of the number of outstanding shares (minus 1.685 million) divided by the total volume for period). If we use this same figure, the OS is close to 790 million as of today. It would seem their intent is to wipe out current shareholders with another reverse split, and by that time, hope their expenses are lowered enough where once they do the reverse split, it wouldn't tank the stock as fast as last time, which I suspect caught them completely by surprise.
Then as I explained on how I believe they cheated on the last vote, they'll:
1. Drive the PPS down by scaring everyone with dilution (more than they need for expenses).
2. Either sell Preferred Shares to another crook like Hudson Bay and put in the closing requirements that they must vote in favor of the R/S just like last time (i.e. both are in bed together & planned this out weeks/months before), or simply increase that voting multiplier like before (the 3,205) possibly to a higher value.
3. Once the price is down enough, they and Hudson Bay or whomever, buys the stock (called 'poop & scoop'). Then, they release a SEC filing saying "so and so record date of X" can vote.
4. The stock is pumped back up to get baggies to buy while they sell out of their positions.
5. If they get trapped bagholding like last time, they simply do another pump to get the price up, sell out, and then amend a different SEC filing changing the "record date" to the date while they were bagholding to ensure they are guaranteed to vote.
6. They then "vote". But, everything's already been rigged for them to win. Hell, tonight I will go do the math on the voting numbers. You might remember that Cheddar asked Mitch about HMNY rigging the R/S vote and Mitch told them he wasn't on the board and to bring Ted on stage to ask him? LOL. I wonder if they saw my analysis.
Out of principle alone, I am doing a chargeback on my MP cards because they have prevented me from seeing a single movie in the past month after I cancelled my service (which allows me to watch movies for the remainder of my billing cycle) by removing movie viewings, only showing far away theaters, hide entire movies, show only late night viewings like 10 pm, check-in errors etc.). They did this intentionally to save money, sure, but with $26 million in the bank, this is now simply ill intent on their part to rob both shareholders AND subscribers blind. I suggest you do the same if you've been robbed the ability of watching movies with your MP card. You can do it for 1 month, or in Costco's case, Costco will refund you 100%.
OUCH! Farnsworth is out destroying shareholders. You guys realize this is happening because Farnsworth gave the OK to R/\[]DE baggies, right? They have a clause in the SEC filing that states HMNY can tell them not to sell unless it can be done at or above a certain price. This means Ted Farnsworth told Canaccord to go all out and destroy shareholders.
Soon they'll need to make another EPIC RAP BATTLES OF HISTORY: Ted Farnsworth vs Baglessholders.
When Farnsworth does enough reverse splits, every long becomes a bagLESSholder as they end up with zero shares. Farnsworth won't even let you remember this failure by stealing all your shares, completely, literally, absolutely.
OUCH! Remember my chart analysis?
Learning to read charts is one of the most important things you'll ever learn.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142931562
Let me get this straight. So they had 3 million subs in mid June. My projections put them at 3.4 million now , if they hadn't F'd up. They F'd up, causing them to lose subs and drop to a projected 3.2 (3.1 as of now) when Mitch first did the interviews. Mitch's number matched up with mines. I expect them to continue losing heavy users, dropping below 3 million in 2-3 weeks. Yet, Ted reports they had 1 million new subs in ONE week's time. YET... they are not at the 4 million mark?????? They are only at 3.1 / 3.2????? So does that mean they lost more subs down to 2.1 / 2.2 million and then "re-gained" them back after they "forced them automatically to renew"? Something smells fishy.
EDIT: I think I got it now. They were talking about the renewing subs. Still Mitch said "15%" in the first interviews, which is half a million. Then when he was with Ted, he said 1 million, which is 31%+. Still doesn't match up.
No. I didn't account for the bagholders at 54 cents. As soon as the price reached that, all the smart bagholders sold off. New ones took their place. The stock then headed back down. So, it hit resistance, and then down. That's not a good sign.
Chart analysis
https://photos.app.goo.gl/D9s384zuhm9E3c6y7
Remember, trend is more important than daily price fluctuations. The S&P 500, for example, has gone up 10% on average per year, for the past almost 100 years. You see crashes and bubbles, but over almost an entire lifetime, it has gone about 10% per year. That, is called a trend. The market will trend up, regardless of what happens, through world wars etc. Unless humanity becomes extinct, a superior alien race invades etc., the trend will be up. HMNY's trend is down. The highs are lower, and the lows are lower. I was right on their expenses being lower, but wrong on their intent to dominate and destroy shareholders. It's Farnsworth after all. That's what he does. Wherever he goes, he leaves a trail of destruction, greater than that of Thanos. Instead of diluting enough to continue going, they chose to dilute 636 MILLION shares. Unbelievable. For those who failed basic math, that's like taking a cup of apple juice, diluting it with an Olympic pool sized amount of water, and calling it apple juice. That, my friends, is called dilution.
To put it into perspective, the stock had 1.685 million shares as of July 25th, at $21.25 (before tanking). Now that it has 636 MILLION shares, we can calculate the intrinsic value (if you can even call that with Farnsworth out to destroy you): 1.685 / 636 = 1/4th of ONE percent. That is 26.5% of ONE percent. If we multiply by $21.25, we get 5.6 cents. That's what it's intrinsic value is right now. Correction, that's what it was on the 13th. It's since been diluted on the 14th and today (as we can see from the presence of paid pumper Watching / Stock Facts). So it's now worth much less than 5.6 cents. In fact, because the market is forward-looking, especially with the MASSIVE dilution that just happened (in LESS than ONE MONTH) it'll discount that "value" to maybe 1-2 cents, just on the sheer cosmic scale of Ted's destruction. I thought Ted and Mitch had learned their lessons and repented. However, they did the opposite. Instead of just trying to survive, they drowned and silenced shareholders so they could survive. They're like the guy who kills you and eats you if you're stuck with them in a cabin without food for the winter. I am simply amazed the SEC is allowing this slaughter to happen.
636 million shares in LESS than a month and counting. You know what happens when you dilute anything (coffee, milk, soda, orange juice, apple juice) with like an Olympic swimming pool of water? What's it going to taste like? That's the value of your shares.
Infinity downwards as long as they keep diluting shareholder at unimaginable records.
It's always about them and how MP subs can do this or that. They have ZERO sympathy for shareholders. Both of them. The ONLY reason they even bothered changing the plans was a last desperate attempt at self-preservation. They have no remorse for the shareholders they've ruined the lives of. It's like a murderer who has no remorse for what they've done, but only cries at the end of a trial when they're found guilty because they're going to face consequences.
MovieBlock: Where shareholders lose while MP subs use.
No. Cash on hand doesn't matter. They will burn through that in record time. Plus part of that $51.4 million are of quarterly/annual pass members. If they cancel or do chargebacks, good luck with that.
What matters is the rate at which HMNY is raping shareholders. It is at an unfathomable speed. In less than one month, LESS THAN ONE MONTH, they diluted from 1.685 million to 636 million, or 1-(1.685/636) = -99.74% drop in value, or down to ONE QUARTER of ONE PERCENT (0.265 % of a ONE %). That's 5.6 cents. The market is FORWARD-LOOKING. It only cares what's going to happen. At this rate, that 5.6 cents will be worthless in a month.
"As of August 9, 2018, we had approximately $26.0 million in available cash and approximately $25.4 million on deposit with our merchant processors for a total of approximately $51.4 million."
Here's my updated calculations.
Bottom line is their inconsistencies, typos and math errors may be possible fraud/cooking the books like Enron. The numbers do not add up. Period.
If I were to get their 16.35 cents average like I said before, I'd have to increase the share selling starting August 1 to like 100 million, which is MORE than the 44 million traded volume. If I do it on August 2, as you can see, the PPS was not that high to account for it all.
The numbers do not add up. Plus they'd have more than the $25 million in the bank as of 8/9. They would have around $50 million. My model the way it is, matches their cash on hand and increases drastically, meaning they're not selling based on need but just blatantly destroying shareholders for another motive.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/junggjjGPZjSJSP4A
HMNY SEC filings cannot be trusted. There are lots of inconsistencies. Summary:
1. From June 30, 2018 through August 9, 2018 the Company has sold 232.4 million shares from the ATM Offering.
2. In addition, from June 30, 2018 through August 9, 2018, the Company received gross cash proceeds of approximately $31.4 million with respect to funding under the November 2017 and January 2018 investor notes and issued 266.6 million shares.
3. These 2 parts from the 10-Q means there's 499 shares issued between that time frame. However, the numbers do not add up. See my other post for explanation.
4. Cash in the bank on August 9 was $26 million, up from around ZERO 2 weeks prior, meaning the CASH SURPLUS per day was about $1.8 million. They were diluting MORE than they needed. The recent "outages" were not outages other than the real one on July 26th. They are simply MP shutting down service to save money as I said before.
5. MP subs came in line with my estimates. It peaked around 3.4 million and went down to 3.2. I estimate it's actually now down to 3.1 million.
6. MP revenue and Gross Loss was similar to my estimate. I overestimated the operating expense to include "interests" and other money-wasting scehemes.
7. They are diluting A LOT more than they need, so they must be planning on massive film expenses, legal fees, or chargebacks, or just milking shareholders.
8. Ted has no problem destroying shareholders from this UNnecessary, MASSIVE dilution.
9. They cannot do a R/S unless they have a ton of shares. They've decided they'd just dilute the F out of shareholders now and keep the money, ignoring the lowered expense.
Possible from more converted notes between the 9th and 14th, but that's still a shit ton of dilution from notes.
Plus, I did the math by dividing the gross proceeds by the number of shares for the periods. It worked out to be about 16.35 cents sold on average between 6/30 and 8/9. $81.6 million / 499 million shares = 16.35 cents on average.
However, per my calculations, I can only get roughly around 11.6 cents.
That's significant because if I were to adjust the selling so that most ATM shares were sold very high, to get the 16.35 cents average, HMNY would have A LOT more cash, like about $50 million instead of $26 million as of 8/9. That means they'd have had some expense that was like ~$24 million just recently. AND... the bulk of the selling would have had to be above 35 cents to make up for all the shares sold near 5 cents. This is NOT possible because the trading volume immediately after 7/31 (the last CONFIRMED 6.7 million OS share count) is just NOT enough to account for it.
That numbers just do not add up.
From June 30, 2018 through August 9, 2018 the Company has sold 232.4 million shares and received net proceeds of $50.2 million under the ATM Offering. On July 2, 2018, the Company’s second universal shelf registration was declared effective under which it may offer for sale up to $1.2 billion of equity or debt securities.
In addition, from June 30, 2018 through August 9, 2018, the Company received gross cash proceeds of approximately $31.4 million with respect to funding under the November 2017 and January 2018 investor notes and issued 266.6 million shares with respect to the conversion of its November 2017 Notes and January 2018 Notes.
232.4 + 266.6 = 499. This 499 number contributes to the outstanding shares.
They're not tight on cash...
This is intentional. In fact, they have more cash than any point in the recent past. Their surplus PER DAY is about $1.8 million since going from almost ZERO to about $26 million in TWO WEEKS. They're no longer just diluting what they need, but appear to be intentionally destroying shareholders. I previously noted they can only do a R/S under specific scenarios in order to stay above $1 properly, and still have enough public outstanding shares (not held by insiders) to remain listed. In order to do this, they need to dilute like hell, just so they can do a MASSIVE reverse split like 1 for 2,500 and still have sufficient public shares.
I can't trust their SEC reports anymore though either. Their "cash deficits" reported in the past SEC filings I've shown you before doesn't add up.
Their 10-Q says Canaccord gets 4% of the gross proceeds of the ATM dilution, yet their attachment to the 10-Q on the ATM dilution and their original supplemental prospectus confirms it is 5%. In other words, they made a typo.
They "typo'd" the 4% MP sub ticket buys vs total domestic in one of the articles I previously posted. Ted said that's a typo in the article.
There are many inconsistencies. They claimed there's been 232,400,000 million shares diluted between June 30th and August 9th for ATM dilution and another 266,600,000 for notes conversions. This adds up to 499 million shares.
Yet, when I add up all the prior dilution which I've accounted for all this, I'm short hundreds of millions of shares that I have to increase the dilution rate for August 10-13 (because the 636 million OS shares was reported as of August 13) to well over 100% of the trade volume of those days, which is NOT possible.
In other words, August 10 had 171 million shares traded and August 13 had 122 million. 636-122-171 = 343 million shares difference.
The 10-Q basically claims they sold 499 million shares between June 30 and August 9. However, the 1.685 million shares on the R/S day means they actually had an OS of 1.685 x 250 = 421.25 M shares on July 24 (day BEFORE the R/S), & with the last OS reported on July 10 of 268.75 million, they had sold 152.5 million shares secretly between July 11 and July 24th. When I add up June 30 through July 24th, I get 173+ million shares sold. If we do 499-173 = ~326 million shares sold AFTER the R/S through to August 9. Since they have 636 million shares as of August 13, that means they'd have to sell 636-326 = 310 million shares between August 10 + August 13. The trading volume between both of those days were 171 + 122 = 293 million only.
That means Canaccord would have had to do ALL the selling (with no one else selling), *AND* MORE than the traded volume for the last two days. That's not possible. They are lying and cooking the books, or they are making huge typos. Remember that they warned they do not have adequate financial controls in their SEC reports a few months back which I listed in one of the articles I posted before.
The OS calculation was based on expense. That matches up perfectly fine.
HMNY has taken a different approach. Pay attention to the 10-Q and you will see they now have $26 million in the bank, as of 8/9. They had like zero 2 weeks prior. That means they are diluting on an astronomical scale in preparation for either massive expenses from "making films" or lawsuits or chargebacks or whatever else. They decided instead of slowly diluting shareholders, they went all out. In fact, they have more cash now than they've had in a very long time. I underestimated management's sheer blatant disregard for shareholders.
My calc otherwise would have just been fine. My revenue and gross loss were close. I increased operating expense to a high value only to account for interest expenses and other expenses that don't fit anywhere.
My calculations would have been correct if they had not chosen to slaughter shareholders. My assumptions that the only real outage was on July 26, which their 10-Q confirmed. My assumptions that they were NOT running out of cash and they were actually intentionally only shutting down the MoviePass app since then was spot on as their cash increased greatly from around zero to $26 million in a 2 week span, or MORE than $1.8 million SURPLUS per day.. No one saw that coming. Everyone else who were quoting anything simply got lucky. No one's shown any calculations to confirm how they derived their values. So while you stand there and claim this and that, you have zero anything to back up your claim other than "you got lucky".
I suspect a load of Robin Hood buyers will keep buying until they can't anymore. Canaccord may have also stopped selling, until Thursday or Friday again. Plus, they had sold the 152.5 million shares before the R/S, lowering the $92 million or so ATM amount they had left. So really, there's a finite amount of share they can sell, meaning mathematically it's not possible to have over 400+ million shares. The limiting factor is the $150 million. Going near 500 million means they'd have reached that $150 million already. And if they're close to it, they would have already announced another offering.
I'm rarely wrong ;)
Everyone who's followed me knows this. LOL
I did some crude calculations. They already sold 152.5 million shares AFTER they announced they had like $92 or so million left of the ATM dilution on July 10th. That was BEFORE the R/S. After the R/S, they have a FINITE amount they can sell. I did some crude calculations to show they cannot possibly sell above 400 million shares because they'd be at the $150 million limit already. Not possible, mathematically.
You guys remember when I mentioned if someone buys all the shares in a CASH account and demand all shorted shares be returned, it would trigger the biggest short squeeze of our lifetime? Completely doable. Brokers can't lend your shares to short in a CASH account. This would be freaking hilarious either way.
It hasn't tanked much in the last few days and intraday moves are showing higher highs. Need to see that 10-Q & need to see an update on cash burn. The stock has tanked big time since the R/S out of fear for more dilution and R/S. If they play their cards right, as much as we saw an EPIC sell off the likes which I've never seen before, we may also see an EPIC squeeze the likes of which I've never seen before either lol