Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
You can say that again, this is just unbelievable.
I guess it all depends on what kind of a partnership they were looking for in the past, and what they might settle for now. We should find out within a couple of months. I think they should settle for someone taking over all the costs and a low royalty on future sales, that would let them focus on the new things but maybe get something out of AXAL.
Dew, what do you think happens from here? When will NEO or HOT start to get some recognition from the market?
Well, next year would be better than 2020!
That's what I was wondering, if an initial read from the PIII trial might be enough to resubmit. Maybe in about 1 year, maybe less if it's really compelling.
Hovacre, when do you think is the earliest they could possibly re-file an AXAL application? Are we at least a year away from having enough new data to re-file?
Not sure I agree it's completely dead. I think the feedback from the EMA was clear, and the only option right now was to pull the application, even if a partnership is imminent. Any partner will have to get the additional data, one way or other, and refile. I still agree a partnership is either a long shot or not likely to provide significant up front money, but there may still be a partnership that can alleviate ADXS of some of the costs.
Unfortunately you were dead on, although maybe even worse than you prognosticated - I remember that post.
So it looks like $1.60 or so is the new interim ceiling, who knows where the new floor is now.
Agreed, not much of a choice, but he was decisive quickly, withdrawing the application for now and moving on to better things.
The only possible positive about AXAL from today's press release is that they specifically state they are still actively seeking a partner. Far from sure that a partnership will come, but this message is much better than the alternative that it's all over for AXAL. Also, I would have to say Ken Berlin seems to be looking at things with much more of a critical eye and willing to make drastic decisions where necessary, unlike the more recent interim CEO.
And I'd have to say, the share price reaction today is not good, but it could have been a lot worse.
I'm sure it's still worth billions - what a disaster.
Not going to happen, lucky to get back to $3 on only that news. If it also includes other milestones then maybe better, but I still don't think anywhere near $10 in the short term. I'm just hoping for any deal at all, the recent history (1 year or so) on deal making is not good.
Sad but probably true, in the absence of any other major news. Something bigger is going to be required to push it north of 2.
I think $50-100M is a tall order unless it includes HOT, even including HOT it might be somewhat of a tall order to get that much up front.
Yeah, but when?
To tell you the truth, the more I look at what this has done recently, I really don't think the Russell re-balance is any reasonable explanation for how much this has tanked in the last 3 weeks. There's something more to this.
I'm seriously considering finally throwing in the towel on this. ADXS has gone down 7 straight days, and 8 out of the last 9. Looking at the price history, it closed at 2.00 on 5/15, assuming it closes near 1.45 today, that's a 27.5% drop in a little over a month - not very encouraging.
You could very well be right, I would even say it's very plausible, but the question is will it ever bounce back anytime soon? Every time this gets pushed down, it's stuck in a new range.
Could have, but the trend started at least reasonably before the re-balance, and has definitely continued after. I might be more inclined to believe it, if it bounces back significantly in the next few weeks.
Pretty brutal the last 10 days, from 1.79 (and of course 1.90 only about 10 days before that) to 1.45 right now, clearly some big moves were made, this was not just manipulation. Somebody did not like what they see in the future.
Practically no volume this afternoon, not sure what to make of that.
Thanks for the well stated, balanced view.
I think you have it backwards, real shareholders would be the ones who care when the stock goes down 6% in one day, 18% in 5 days.
Not at all, but I think the notion that AMGN must have HOT or their NEO investment goes up in smoke is nonsense.
I still don't see why they must have HOT. The treatment cost of everything comes down, and the time to generate a NEO vaccine will almost certainly come down with time. HOT will always be available faster, but it's not guaranteed how much faster or whether it will be worth it from an effectiveness standpoint. Amgen may know a lot more about it than we do, and may not be interested.
Although this is possible, I think you're being a bit dramatic and overstating it when you say Amgen cannot afford for HOT to land somewhere else. They may not be too happy about it, on the other hand they may believe they have the best technology and that HOT will never amount to much, if for instance NEO can be applied in a much shorter time frame in the future - which is likely.
I knew June was going to be pivotal for ADXS, didn't really think it would be this bad. Not sure that any more good news is coming any time soon, unless they choose to PR the HOT IND, which probably would not amount to anything. What scares me is they talked about an update on AXAL at the next conference call, seems like they are not really expecting much of anything on that front in the next month or two.
I think it's more that it has been down 10 out of the last 15 trading days (and most of the 5 up days were nothing to write home about), and it's down 20% in those 15 days. And it's down 10% in 5 trading days. That's considerably worse than the market.
Agree with you on all those points, just seems like we need even more of a sense of urgency from the ADXS management team. The Tony Lombardo experiment was nearly a complete disaster, as evidenced by the change in the share price during his tenure. Clearly he and the BOD expected something different to happen along the way, instead they ended up in an even worse situation.
I hope I'm wrong and you are right, but the way things have gone for the last two years makes me think otherwise.
It's also pretty clear who was right over the last 3 weeks, the last 3 months, and almost the last 3 years. It has been really painful being on the wrong side.
Not so sure any HOT or HER2 deals are coming any time soon. Why now versus all the time in development? The HOT IND doesn't seem like some big motivation to make a deal. This stock action is really pathetic, down from $1.90 to $1.53 in 14 trading days.
Yes, ignore the obvious, sensible reasons and come up with a more convoluted reason or complicated theory. This is why I don't buy into he manipulation theory, it's a more complicated, less obvious way to explain the obvious.
It's becoming more and more clear to me that ADXS should have sold off AXAL to someone else, collected a small royalty on future sales, and focused on NEO and HOT for the last year. Things would have been much different now.
It was too good to last.
The earnings were released before the open this time, 3 weeks ago.
Now down more or less 20% in two weeks, just painful.
I don't think it's guaranteed to happen this week, either, PR or no PR. They stated within a few weeks, so could easily be early July instead of late June.
I know, I meant clearly it's not getting any early bounce, pretty sure it will not get anything when the IPO happens. It needs some other news to go anywhere.
Clearly ADXS isn't riding any coattails. Make that down 9% since the high on Friday morning.