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Say what you want about Dan O'Connor, but when he was CEO there were typically multiple PRs every month, most of the exceptions were around Thanksgiving and Christmas. There have now been two occasions since July (right now being one of them) where there have been no press releases for over a month. Silence is definitely not golden at this point, silence is just making everyone believe the worst, which unfortunately may be true.
Down 5% in the last hour.
You got that right.
I think this stock action all comes down to existential risk, they may have great things in the pipeline, but if they can't get more funding sometime soon they may not get to the finish line with any of them.
Sorry, this is down 25% in 2 weeks, 50% in 1 1/2 months. Manipulation is part of it, but it wouldn't be possible if everybody out there believed this was tremendously undervalued, clearly a lot of investors want out.
Gantor, shorts are covering, not much doubt about that, but is that really surprising given how much the stock has gone down? They are just taking their profits, and it's certainly possible there is still enough other selling that they can cover without making the price go up. I don't disagree with the reality that some shorts have covered, but the reason behind it and the continued price fall is anybody's guess.
Dan was clearly fired, anyone can read that between the lines.
Hard to blame this all on manipulation, something bad is going on here.
Gantor, I agree with you 100%, and I think this is what I was trying to say with my comment the other day - in addition to the HFT and other manipulation, there is plenty of "not so great" news here. Not necessarily bad news, but no good news is usually interpreted as bad news by the market.
Although I don't completely discount the HFT and such reasons for the decline, I'm tending to also believe somebody or multiple somebodies really wanted out of this stock over the last month+. The question is will it ever end?
Figures, total bloodbath.
They probably get a big milestone payment for dosing the first patient in the NEO trial, problem is we have no idea. Would be nice if they mapped out the expected milestone payments over the next year or so.
Roughly 3 weeks since his last post.
I feel like I have been wrong every time on this company.
Where have you been Exel? Getting close to the bottom again.
Why do you assume the submission process is completely opaque? Do you believe they wait until the last second and then throw it over the wall and hope for the best?
Seems to me he was made nearly permanent in this press release, second paragraph:
https://ir.advaxis.com/press-releases/detail/1280/advaxis-reports-business-update-and-third-quarter-2017
I understand all of that, but the bottom line is that the market sees much more value in anything that is a cancer cure. And in reality, patients and insurance companies are much more likely to pay big dollars for anything that is a potential cure vs. something that increases the likelihood of surviving 6 months. Don't get me wrong, there is significant value in extending life by 6 months, but it's easy to understand why the KITE treatment is considered much more valuable.
The delay in filing may not really be such bad news, if you believe they are engaged with the European agencies and are getting feedback about what will be required in the application for approval. There's the obvious negative of being delayed getting to market, but it may be a positive for a potential partner that they are actively engaged.
I would assume this is not a completely opaque process, they are working with people at the european agencies and are getting feedback as part of the process. This is also why it's kind of crazy to assume this is just a matter of simple paperwork, this is a multi-month, iterative, interactive process.
One big difference is that KITE has what is considered a cure in many cases, not yet clear if ADXS really has anything like that. Granted they are going after very difficult to treat conditions.
I'm referring to his demeanor, not the technical details. It's the usual story, 90% of presentation skills are not the content of what you present, it's your body language, voice inflection, etc., that comes across. Have you listened to the presentation? I think my opinion is not unique by any means.
Unfortunately I agree with you about Lombardo. That presentation was not inspiring, seemed almost like he wanted out of there as soon as possible.
Hovacre, did Advaxis release any information about test results in mice, etc., as part of the IND application for NEO?
So you're comparing it to every other drug you've seen, but isn't it fair to say that NEO is quite different than most other drugs? I don't think it's necessarily a reasonable comparison, there's much more involved than in many other cases, for instance most other drugs are not personalized.
What is your basis for saying it should not take this long? Isn't every IND, trial, etc. different?
Not in my experience, always moves down faster than it moves up.
I'm surprised shorts wouldn't be very nervous about a buyout, even in the $7-8 share range.
Another question, did Advaxis ever have to disclose the results of NEO testing in mice as part of the IND application?
That's exactly what I did already and just did again, I can't find the word evaluated at all in the press release.
I don't see it either, item 2 is about PSA.
Nice call, I just wish it hadn't gone down 2.6% on Thursday.
Right to try usually only applies to patients that have been diagnosed as terminal, have exhausted all other options, and often only if not eligible for other clinical trials. It won't be used by all patients.
I thought the phase II is still ongoing, no results yet?
I'm still convinced it's a secondary offering.
I would consider it a good thing, once they are done selling the short term pain may be over, and there may be a more stable outlook.
Maybe I'm in the minority, but I'm convinced this is ADXS selling more shares to get the $50M. Perfect explanation for the behavior of the price and volume.