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Why can't you accept that AMGN might have simply changed their priorities, or decided that other investments might be better short term business opportunities? You could probably even make a case that they didn't like the way the NEO program was managed by ADXS, but to say it was based on preliminary NEO clinical data (for the Nth time) is really getting old and unsupported by the facts.
Kind of looks like there was some change in sentiment by somebody starting at 3:00PM on Friday.
But how long until you conclude the answer is (a)? Or put another way, how long do you wait for (b)?
Again, I disagree, I don't think the first cohort of a phase I trial can really explain any of those, as it's just not anywhere near enough information. Your second #2 is just ridiculous, they may have concluded that for other reasons, but not based on the NEO trial.
You've got to be kidding, now there was enough data from the first cohort of this phase I trial to make a determination that a checkpoint inhibitor is necessary to get efficacy? Give me a break.
Not even close, this argument is getting a little old. Clearly Amgen had some different priorities or saw something (the something could be as simple as how long it will take and the cost) they didn't like, but there's no indication they saw a problem with the science.
Seems like something has changed here, the share price has now more or less doubled and held for about a month, something like that hasn't happened in a long time.
If you ignore the market cap like you should, the six month and three month charts for ADXS and NTGN are pretty similar - both bad. The 1 month chart looks much better for ADXS. And FWIW, NTGN has dropped from a high of $16 to now nearly $4. A 4x drop since June is not much better. It's actually really bad for NTGN when you consider ADXS had a new offering in that time frame.
ADXS is looking better than NTGN these days, NTGN practically in free fall.
Agreed, I think the fact the news is being given at a conference implies it is clinical information, unlikely they would want to announce shelving NEO at this conference. Certainly would not excite the audience.
Agreed, but I find it hard to believe Amgen will just buy back in for the bigger enchilada, more likely it's some other partner.
The only problem with that theory is it's not consistent with the statements from Ken about why Amgen terminated the agreement.
Another jump this afternoon, unusual behavior the last few weeks.
Pretty interesting that the stock is up on this announcement, clearly there is more here than meets the eye.
Good point, maybe their is a silver lining.
Now it's up after hours. Seems the market might have been expecting something worse, like maybe a hold for safety reasons.
Back to almost 0.30 AH, this may not amount to much.
Hovacre, any thoughts on these developments?
Not really sure if this will be seen as negative or nothing.
Agreed on continuity, but in this case I still don't follow the reason for the turnaround in thinking.
Seems some people in the market today agree.
Any talk on the call about the FDA being a source of the delay in first dosing of HOT?
Agreed, reading something into the day of the week and the time for the business update call is just ridiculous. It's probably scheduled for this Tuesday because somebody was on vacation until this week, and it's at 11:00AM because that's a convenient time and they know there is nothing that will be said that will matter much to the market - that's my guess.
I think he was quite simply referring to more trial results that are coming this year. Not likely anything more than that.
For whatever reason the end of year financials have often been reported in January rather than December. Even last year it was late December, the year before it was in January.
What if it closes near the high? The day is young still.
Two weeks ago you guessed this was going to rapidly go down to the single pennies, so much for that one.
Clearly somebody thinks they know something.
Probably getting bought for $0.25/share.
It's still a big question why they ended it now, particularly if Dew is right and it's unlikely they got anywhere near enough efficacy information to make a decision on that basis. If it was terminated based on the cost of the treatment, why now? Did the cost go up, or not go down as fast as they thought it would? Although I tend to discount this, it's possible they believe that HOT and NEO will have similar efficacy, and maybe HOT has much lower costs, so they bailed on NEO.
How did they get this far into the trial with a manufacturing problem, wouldn't they have to disclose something like that? I'm probably wrong, but this doesn't add up to me, is it possible that they see HOT as being almost as effective as NEO but having better manufacturability, and thus are bailing out on NEO? Maybe the manufacturing problem is just a cost problem? It's a stretch, I know.
No termination payment?
So much for holding at 0.36, it was too good to be true.
As soon as there is any decent volume this thing goes down, clearly all the volume is selling, not that it's any surprise.
I think it already got here.
Spoke to soon, perilously close again, in reality not that far earlier today either.
I hope it gets to your sell price sooner.
Now you will probably be right.
The question is, why do you care when it's up a couple of days when the overall net result has been down over any slightly longer or much longer time frame?
You have predicted it about 20 times now, I'm hoping eventually you will be right rather than wrong 100% of the time.