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Only will change significantly if there is a deal, I still think an AXAL deal needs to come long before the next conference call.
Unfortunately I think Bourbon is right on about cash being king right now, it's obvious from the share price movement. Forget all the talk about manipulation and somebody trying to squash the price, the way the price has reacted to recent news makes it clear that cash and overall survival are paramount right now, and any clinical news is just noise. Until it's clear that they can make it to the point of a marketable product without major dilution, nothing else is going to matter much.
Your math is off a little bit, 45 days is July 26th. Not that it matters much, and I'm not concerned about AMGN being able to pay, but they probably won't pay it (if there is a payment) any sooner than is required by the contract, or not much. Somebody would not be too happy if they paid everything early.
Still not a believer in the manipulation theory, but I will say the lack of any real movement today on moderate volume is interesting. The positive movement last week on the cost cutting tells me that the market is still very concerned about ADXS being able to bring a product to market, and that's the biggest concern. The lack of positive movement today may mean that the market also believes in the science within reason, but it doesn't matter if they can't manage the business and the ability to bring it to market. An AXAL deal may go a long way towards that end.
But then why didn't they do it last Thursday?
Great, effectively net 45 terms even on the milestone payments. The money might not even hit the books this quarter, but presumably it will be invoiced this quarter, if there is a milestone.
Unfortunately it's going to be about 3 months until another 10Q.
We certainly don't know that there is milestone payment just for dosing the first patient, it could be that there has to be some number of patients, maybe they have to get some number of patients for each cohort, or maybe something different altogether.
I'm not counting on 2s next week, but if we can get a few good press releases over the next few weeks it would help - first dose of NEO, file IND for HOT, outside chance of some agreement for AXAL, etc.. July might bring a lift of the hold or at least something about the hold, and maybe a better chance for something about AXAL.
Nice recovery today, but still looks like it's having trouble getting through 1.90, or in that range.
It's not that it (AXAL) won't get approved, it's that ADXS does not have the resources to get approval and bring it to market, so instead they are going to let somebody else do that and focus on NEO and HOT.
I wouldn't assume that, things could get enough better based on NEO and HOT that the share price could go up significantly. They will almost certainly have to dilute unless AXAL turns into much more than we think or there is a buyout, but dilution would not be so bad at a higher share price.
Still hitting the resistance at 1.88-1.90, need it to break through.
I'll believe it when I see it. I think it might be a much bigger impact to NEO if they sell AXAL, get it out of the way and make the company viable and capable of bringing NEO to market. They need to clear the decks.
Not so sure about that, I think Amgen believes they already got the crown jewels, no need to go after the second best. Not to say that others won't be interested.
It could be worth more if it's proven to be effective. HOT has the advantage of being available immediately upon a diagnosis, whereas NEO has the advantage of being personalized but with an 8 week delay, although probably less of a delay in the future.
I agree, I think they want to sell off the whole thing (worldwide, any combo rights, etc.), get whatever they can in terms of up front money and maybe some very small future royalties. They have clearly come to the conclusion that they need to do whatever they can to advance NEO and HOT, maybe PSA, although I think they would rather go after prostate cancer using NEO and HOT, so they might even sell PSA. These are the kind of decisions that needed to be made when TL became ICEO, way too much money burned on AXAL, very clear now that the market values NEO and HOT.
Not looking so difficult to pull it down this morning, practically no volume again now.
Pretty clear there is some serious selling pressure in the 1.88-1.90 range, if it can break through that something more significant might happen in the short term.
Not really, there were some more buyers today, the price moves up to keep a relative equilibrium - there had to be an equal number of sellers. Major stretch to assume the price should double.
Yeah, kind of scary the interim CEO couldn't, or wouldn't do that.
Have to say I'm surprised to see this go back up to 1.84 today, even if only temporarily. Thought this would be another day of almost all declines all afternoon.
I think that's all we can hope for, widen the search and lower the bar, get at least something.
Question is, what does this mean for the EMA submission?
You can call it ridiculous, but it is a fact that they did no other deal and did sell 10M shares at $2.00/share. Interpret it how you want, but those are the facts.
Do we think earnings are coming out after the close today, or before the open tomorrow? With the call tomorrow, I am thinking the earnings come out before the open, but historically they have come out after the close.
We also know that no deal was good enough to avoid selling 10M shares at $2.00/share, which was clearly not desirable. I think that gives us some insight into the quality of any possible deals.
Was that calendar Q2, or ADXS Q2? ADXS Q2 would be calendar Q1.
Also wonder if that time frame included expected milestone payments.
Semantics, the point is that there is significant negative sentiment/bias about any ADXS "news". Not necessarily unwarranted bias given the way things have been going, such as TL frequently talking about discussions and hoping to be able to announce something soon, and nothing ever materializing, clinical holds, dilution, delays in just about every program, etc..
Reading the NEO clinical trial documentation, there are also 3 cohorts for dosing that will be separated by at least 4 weeks, the lowest dose starts first. Presumably this is to give some time to see if there are any problems with the lowest dose cohort. So the highest dose cohort cannot really start any earlier than August.
I don't know, at this point for this company, anything that is not clear cut good news is taken as bad news. There has not been much unquestionable good news, and even that has done little to move the share price, certainly in any sustainable way.
I expect it to be very unexciting in terms of any interesting news about the clinical programs, which effectively means it will be negative. The only possible big positives would be a substantially lower burn rate (unlikely), or at least confirming that they have patients enrolled in the NEO trial and are on track to dose in 1H18.
Volume is just incredibly low this morning, making me worried about the liquidity in general.
Although why would the Merck/PSA deal happen now? The data was available to ADXS/Merck for at least the last few months, I'm not so sure that just because the data was published would somehow mean a deal is imminent. All this talk of deals for the last year with nothing happening has me a little bit jaded, although 100% agree June is a critical month.
What kind of news are you hoping for from the EMA?
I wonder if this news is what put the hurt on ADRO and ADXS today.
What's your evidence, and conversely, what's your evidence that the share price should not have done what it has done? You have always said nothing has changed, maybe that's true with the science/tech, but clearly a lot has changed with the financial situation of the company, and they have also shown they have no ability to manage the process of getting a product to market. I'm not quite ready to bail out yet, but if they don't show some big changes really soon then I will be there shortly.
I take that back, now it has pretty much fallen off the cliff today, close to a 1 month low, and on moderate volume compared to most of the recent trading. Hard to blame the overall biotech market for this slide in ADXS today.
I just don't buy it, I don't believe either traders or algos can keep manipulating it for years on end, always with the same result of it going down further. I think it keeps going down because after every gain you go back to the realization that cash is dwindling with no remedy in sight. If nothing else, the share price has pretty well mirrored the cash situation, which means that the enterprise value is near zero - not surprising given the overall situation. That's why I think something dramatic needs to happen in the next few weeks, either enough cash or something else that really changes the sentiment about the enterprise value and future prospects.
In a little more than 1 trading day it goes from 1.88 to 1.69 (10% delta), and three weeks ago it was over 2.00. No gains ever hold. This is getting to be a little bit too much to take, they need to come up with something good ASAP.