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Please keep posting. Always enjoyed your posts. Plenty of us are eyes wide open.
I applied the same logic when the executive team gave themselves 50% raises in February 2019
("surely a licensing deal/non-dilutive financing must be around the corner and the darkest days are over. Why else would they do this now"?)
We all know how that turned out. So color me skeptical that the timing of the award means we'll hear something Thursday to justify it.
(not to say I'm not a happy shareholder right now - I'm up 200% - just noting past instances of similar conduct).
Grip, yes, you are reading it right. $7.5M proceeds.
Series D offering, $1000/share price. Convertible to common at $0.80.
What looks like 1/2 warrant coverage (based on $$ invested) with warrants exercisable at $1.00/share.
Disappointing terms. But if this is what it takes to move cancer forward at warp speed, so be it. I've always modeled based on 700M O/S anyway.
Also, note the equity incentive award shares (6M to NP!) IF BTD is granted within the next 6 months.
Guess this explains the sell-off last Thursday. Either someone found out about this or (more likely) folks were selling to take out shares to invest in Series D raise.
EDIT: Also, to be fair, when the deal was struck the stock was trading at $1.15 or so.
Hey, no worries man. Sorry to put your name out there. Just speculation for fun while we waited on CYDY to hit. We were curious as to why a west coast (Vancouver WA) biotech firm would have major connections to ATL. Chairman of board and Mr. Klump both in ATL.
Thanks for the synopsis, Saltz.
Obviously, just one more instance where finances dictate the pace of science.
Classy post. It's rare to see someone own up to being wrong on an issue. To be fair to you, it was definitely dicey in CYDY land for a while, and the company is still not without its flaws, but I hope the worst is behind us now.
Also, as others have noted, if leronlimab is anything like what we think it is, there is still significant money to be made investing at these levels.
In short, good luck to you, hope you stick around here, and hope you work your way back in to CYDY and make some $$$.
100M shares at $0.50? That's an interesting guess.
I suggest looking at the A/S and O/S numbers and revisiting your guess.
Gutsy play to put up the $2.50/share margin required to short an OTC stock in the US. Hope that works out for you.
Sadly, I am working today and don't have the time to do this ...
But if anyone is bored, I would be interested to know the market caps of the other stocks in that article. Knowing the SP is nice, but, for comparison, the MC is more helpful.
(Not just a response to you skezan)
It's been unreal. Especially in dollar terms. By the end of the day, probably $7M of stock will have traded. Even on big volume days in the past, the dollar amount was nowhere close. I'm hoping institutional buying is occurring.
As I said elsewhere, I doubt it is due solely to stock tips swapped at Christmas dinner.
How many pre-approval biotechs have zero revenue and significant market caps? Your focus on revenue at the current time is severely misplaced. I am guessing you knew that already ...
Hopeful they can PR something (anything) Monday morning. Even if it's somewhat of a "fluff" PR of the kind I typically complain about.
-- cancer patient update?
-- cancer enrollment update?
-- preclinical results in MS?
-- FDA decision on 700 mg. vs. 525 mg. in combo?
Anything to keep the CYDY momentum going and the company front of mind in new investors.
Absolutely. Can't expect a stock to go from .29 on Tuesday intraday to .73 intraday on Thursday and not have sellers.
Hoping for a continued drumbeat of positive updates (cancer enrollment, results, BLA, etc.) over the next month. Keep the momentum going.
My head knew intellectually that the day would come.
My heart was having a hard time though.
Now, my gain for the day is only about 10% less than my ACCOUNT VALUE was on Tuesday.
Very well done Bobby. Hindsight being 20/20, I regret not adding at $0.30. I considered adding about 75,000 more shares, but it was just a bridge too far for me at that point.
Everyone is probably better off that I DID NOT add, because every time I've tried to load up in advance of a big perceived inflection, I've been wrong!
I'm very content with what has happened in the past few days. I haven't sold any and am not sure I will until cancer results are more fully known (unless life intervenes).
I agree ... If CYDY can get BLA submitted in the next few weeks as NP discussed during the 12/17 call, that would really help sustain the momentum.
Hoping the next 6 months is a LOT more fun here than the past 6...
Thanks, appreciate it. Anyone putting more eyes on this is a good thing, even if most won't appreciate initially exactly what they own.
Bobby, forgive my ignorance, who is Tim Sykes? Thanks in advance.
The thought has definitely crossed my mind, but far too much travel (typically) for my taste (family/kids).
Nice post, thanks Suvorov. It's been a tough stretch. Nice to see green.
Good luck to you as well.
Bucky, it's because CYDY did not get $87.5M in milestone payments. They signed a contract giving them the right to those payments, at future dates, if certain terms are met.
What we know so far ... $.5M wired today. $.5M on BLA submission. "Few more million" on approval. Other payments due when sales milestones are hit (these are NP's words from the newest proactive video).
Once the Amended 8K is out, we can all read the contract and see all the details.
In the meantime, this deal did not solve CYDY's immediate cash crunch, which is why the MC did not increase substantially.
Hope this helps. GLTU
I expect the first milestone is probably BLA submission or acceptance.
Yes, it is, and this is not the class of partner I hoped for, but I am still happy about the deal. Better than no deal.
This is from the PR:
Vyera has agreed to pay upfront and regulatory and sales-based milestone payments of up to $87.5 million, as well as a royalty of 50 percent on net sales. Vyera also agreed to make an investment in CytoDyn of $4 million in the form of registered CytoDyn common stock.
I didn't hear it as 90 million upfront.
I heard it as 90 million in total upfront sales, marketing, and milestone based payments.
I don't think we'll know how much upfront until we see the contract.
Unbelievable that they signed a deal with Shkreli's former company!! This couldn't be made up!
THAT SAID, credit where credit is due, they did sign a deal.
Very happy lawyer overall.
I think they just signed a deal with Martin Shkreli's former company.
Well, they say no press is bad press, right?
Of course, it was Martin Shkreli's former company. Can't make this sh*t up.
Unbelievable. Talking about multiple sclerosis...
Add that to the list of blown deadlines! (levity sorely needed)
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
No worries. My apologies for snark if it was a legitimate question.
Lots of frustration lately, and there has been a lot of "stop complaining and sell" sentiment from some. Sort of like "America, love it or leave it". I read your post that way, and, again, my apologies if that was not your intent.
Obviously, life is not black and white. There are shades of gray!
Indexguy answered the question also, and I agree with those thoughts. More eloquently put than my response.
GLTU
Welcome to the board.
I'll answer as I have before. Science, and only science. It's a bet that even the most incompetent management can't screw up science this good.
So far, CYDY management's inability to translate positive science into shareholder value has surprised even me.
However, I don't expect "nothing but failure", so please don't put words in my mouth (as I never said that). The science is too strong. I do expect CYDY management's actions over the past 5 years will greatly handicap shareholders' overall ultimate return.
But that is a far different thing from failure.
I couldn't listen to the call today and didn't realize it had already happened, but this seems like an accurate summary! /s
While I strongly disagree with the use of personal attacks embedded in your post, it is getting harder and harder to disagree with the notion that CYDY management has, to date, failed shareholders by failing to achieve SP appreciation in the face of the steady drumbeat of positive scientific news.
If so, that's a good thing. It should be. Accountability is important.
i_luv_cydy, thanks for the reply - appreciate it. If it comes to it, I'll take my tax losses and carry forward forever, but right now I still think the odds of a decent upside still exist and that the odds of at least getting my money back ($0.50 average) are high enough to argue against taking any more losses than I can currently use!
BLA - biologic license application. It is the application for approval to sell leronlimab for combo HIV.
There are 3 parts: (1) preclinical; (2) clinical; and (3) CMC = chemistry, manufacturing, and controls.
CYDY has submitted part 1. Part 2 is on hold pending FDA determination of dosage (525 vs. 700). Part 3 is on hold pending stability data from CYDY's manufacturing partners.
CYDY has indicated it expects to complete and submit parts 2 and 3 in 2019.
It is likely that the FDA will approve leronlimab in 2020.
Everybody has to make their own call.
My average is $0.50, and the cheapest shares I own are at $0.39. I don't need the money, and I still think the risk-reward here is good, so I am not taking huge losses now in advance of potential large catalysts. I have all the tax losses I can use for 2019, so I'm not selling this year. I will sell next year to the extent I need tax losses but no further.
At worse, I believe CYDY will have leronlimab approved for sale in combo HIV in 2020 or early 2021.
When that happens, I expect the stock will be worth at least my average, even factoring in potential significant additional dilution.
So my take is hold.
I am not adding, because I believe the short term risk to the downside (if BLA delayed and/or no deal) is significant.
RE: losing 100%
My belief has always been that CYDY could sell the whole company for $500M to $1B in about a day if management hung a "for sale" sign.
Don't expect to lose all of my investment here.