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This is my belief as well, though I've tempered my expectations as to timing, magnitude, and impact of the news.
As they used to say... it's quiet - too quiet.
Something is definitely in the works.
To me, it just looks like one motivated seller this morning, with the obvious caveat that the apparent delays, continued silence, and lack of long-term financing solutions aren't helping. GLTU.
Thanks for the laugh beeandhc123. 25 years later, still doesn't get old.
Right there with you, and I already have made such a bet. It will either end really well or really poorly!
Same to you and yours.
I agree, Grip. It is definitely when, not if. The "when" and "how much" remain TBD in this investment, but I am pretty assured it will be profitable (defined as not generating a loss from my average).
I'm guessing some combination of noteholder selling has abated and some people don't want to be out of CYDY over the weekend.
Prostagene deal. Spewed, signed, PRd
Thanks for sharing, nt2innovate. Much appreciated.
Just taking two seconds out of my day to congratulate (?) you on your $0.40 prediction that is fast becoming reality. I knew intellectually that $0.40 was possible given the company's capital structure, but I didn't think it was probable. Whatever your agenda may be, you were closer to right on this one than I was.
GLTU
RE: lower the bar if need be...
This is always been my thought exactly, and one of my primary concerns is that CYDY would get greedy and not see the long-term benefit in taking a sub optimal deal for a portion of the company's assets in order to raise the funds needed to advance the real money makers.
Thanks as always for your thoughts
Thanks for the reply. Couldn't tell if you had changed your opinion at all (which you're of course entitled to do), and I appreciate you confirming. I am in the same boat. GLTU and have a nice weekend.
I hear you. As I've said before, the cognitive dissonance generated by this investment is OFF THE CHARTS. It forces you to believe that something is both true and not true (or black or white, pick your opposites) at the same time.
Well received on my part, any way. Humor is always a good thing!
No worries at all. I figured we were on the same page. My reply was as much for the benefit of other readers as anything. Thanks as usual for the thoughtful reply.
I don't buy the "Prostagene" was thrown in his lap talk, because that assumes RP didn't know about leronlimab. I find that hard to believe, given that RP's life's work seems to be largely about CCR5/cancer metastasis. I give RP more credit than that.
I also give NP enough credit to think that he was more than capable of realizing, once RP approached CYDY and tested leronlimab in cancer, what the possibilities might be if the two companies joined forces.
But I am willing to believe that Paulson helped broker/structure the transaction, which makes sense given their historical role with CYDY and the fact that neither RP nor NP are bankers/attorneys.
And I totally agree with credit to NP. The Prostagene acquisition is 100% a positive for CYDY. CEO gets the blame (fair or not) when things go poorly, but that also means they get the credit (fair or not) when things go well. Two sides of the same coin!
skezan, what is your assessment of and attitude towards the current situation? I ask because you have always been balanced but clearly positive in your posts. Has your assessment changed?
For my part, I am doing my best to remain patient, in the belief that it will work out (defined as making money for me from my .535 average) in the long term. I confess though that there are times when I am not sure that the return will be worth the stress of the ride.
Thanks in advance for your two cents.
I am not happy with this news. No investor should be.
However, I am trying to remain clear in my thinking.
AUTHORIZED shares do not need to be sold. They are simply available to be sold to raise funds if needed.
If I were negotiating with multiple parties on licensing (prostate, specific geographic regions, etc.) and had little to no leverage, I would do everything I could to convince my counterparty that I WAS WILLING TO GO IT ALONE (in terms of financing).
In all likelihood, they will use up all 700M shares.
My point, though, is that it's always possible ("so you're telling me there's a chance"?) that they wont.
By my count, we just marked the second anniversary, as I believe Nader made the infamous "golden quarter" statement in Q1 2017 and we just crossed into Q2 2019.
Not quibbling with your justifiable frustration at overpromise/underdeliver, but let's get facts straight when we complain.
Too true. I bet there were a few chicken littles posting about AMRN in mid-September 2018 as well, seeing as how the stock had declined about 15% in the course of a few weeks ...
Right before it went up 400% and didn't look back.
Not to say that WILL happen here, but it is to say that, in biotech, things stay the same until ... they don't.
https://www.google.com/search?q=amarin+stock&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS771US771&oq=amarin+stock+&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1688j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Let's hope it's the new normal.
I'm with you, bobby. "Coming soon" when it comes to transactions (and the associated legal matters) is not the same as "coming soon" in everyday parlance. Another stock I was in spoke of "substantial business dealings" in June. The closed a deal for $45M cash in December.
Frustration while waiting is understandable, but we all need to be patient and see the big picture. I too view this investment as about as safe as my savings account.
Just another friendly reminder that another Paulson raise AND a licensing deal coming soon are not mutually exclusive occurrences.
Frustration is totally understandable, but let's keep clear heads and focus on the big picture.
(Not responding directly to you, Fortuno)
In all seriousness, what value do your last two posts add to the board? if you have opinions, whether they are good, bad, or indifferent, just state them plainly rather than speaking in cryptic nonsense that tries to suggest that this company will not succeed.
It's fine to believe that the company won't succeed, just state so plainly and explain your reasoning.
Fair enough, when you actually break down the English of "non-dilutive financing" it is a bit nonsensical.
I think a better way to describe it would be raising additional funds in a manner that doesn't dilute shareholders and doesn't add to the company's current indebtedness.
In other words, some sort of partnership or licensing arrangement with an upfront cash payment.
If I ruled the world, I'd leave it up there. Seeing the original post and the conversation that follows is a helpful record. Just my two cents!
We all know why...
This article is 6 months old, and the author has already published a retraction. Nice try, but no cigar.
I was mostly joking, but someone else pointed it out better (maybe you?) when they said fine to make predictions, just be sure to own up to them (be it good or bad).
I will make a prediction that I KNOW will come true:
If this hits .40 again with no negative developments, I will be selling everything not nailed down to buy with both fists.
Moderators, please sticky this post!
Correction from my prior post: Merck is just the marketing company for the biosimilar, not the owner.
Another take on the Samsung Biologics deal:
http://m.ajudaily.com/view/20190402165038059
An interesting tidbit to me: a JV between Samsung Biologics and Biogen won FDA approval for a biosimilar of Herceptin last year. Merck is the owner of that biosimilar (so google tells me).
Personally, I am confident that Samsung Biologics has what it takes to satisfy the FDA's requirements for the CMC portion of a BLA for monoclonal antibodies, so my mind is at ease on that issue now.
Personally, I don't really care if they cook their books. I care if they can "cook" leronlimab to the FDA's satisfaction! GLTU
Agreed, thanks for the rely following up. I knew they had discussed 110-120K as a price point, but you never know with insurance reimbursements, etc., so I chose 70K just to illustrate ...
The numbers are pretty staggering if you play with the variables and adjust them in terms of price, percentage, etc.
GLTU.
I think this morning's PR is fairly important news, though we all know the market won't react to it (and know the reasons why).
Based on my quick google research, 10-20% of breast cancer is TNBC, and another 20-30% of breast cancer is HER2 positive, for a total of 30-50% of breast cancers that now may benefit from treatment with CCR5 antagonists (remember that TNBC and HER2 positive are mutually exclusive conditions, so the percentages are additive).
In other words, based on this new research (which i think IS new information unless I've missed something, please correct me if I'm wrong), the potential market for leronlimab in breast cancer may have just more than doubled.
Again, according to google, there are approx. 270,000 new breast cancer cases annually in the US alone.
Just assuming the lower % is correct (i.e., 30% of BC is either TNBC or HER2 positive), that is approximately 90,000 new cases annually.
Make another conservative assumption that leronlimab is eventually used to treat 1/3 of those patients (i.e., 33% market penetration, for 30,000 cases annually).
Make another reasonably conservative assumption that leronlimab is priced at $70,000/year.
Do the math, then remember that these were reasonably conservative assumptions for the US market alone.
Now consider why CYDY may be taking its time in deciding whether and when to partner and on what terms.
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
I am not trying to debate whether the drug is excellent or whether some BP are interested in CYDY. It is, and they are.
I was simply pointing out that the best a BP may be willing to offer right now is $X, and, if for whatever reason (good, bad, or indifferent), CYDY's management is only willing to accept $5X right now, then the deal may have fallen through and FOR THAT REASON ALONE Nader may have stopped talking about it for now.
In other words, I have never doubted there WAS a potential deal on the table. Hopefully, there still IS a potential deal on the table.
I was simply pointing out that one of MANY possible reasons they may have chosen not to mention it in the last interview is that, in the course of negotiations, it may have become apparent that a deal will not be reached at this time (for example, for the reason outlined above).
GLTU.
Or it's a subject Nader didn't want to touch on because he couldn't honestly say any longer that they WERE in talks for non-dilutive financing (i.e., they didn't reach a deal and there is no longer hope of one in the short term, so hinting at one would not be accurate any longer).
I am not saying that's what I believe or am hoping for (I am VERY long here), just saying that we need to be open to any possibilities and acknowledge that it's possible that the reason they didn't discuss it recently is NOT a good reason.
Take a look at posts 39044 and 39047
Any thought of scam/lie went out of my brain 100% the day Pestell signed on to this company. He's a clinical oncologist with a reputation as a world-class researcher. He did his diligence and knew what he was getting into.