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Thanks Blueheel. Always enjoy your posts!
For the record, I am not in the "poorly managed trainwreck camp". My camp is more "from the outside looking in, it sometimes appears management isn't doing the best job, especially in setting SH expectations and then delivering on those expectations".
I do my best to discount those feelings appropriately given my lack of perfect information and the small-scale operation/limited finances of the company. I generally like NP and believe he is working hard and in our interests.
My only frustration with management currently is the TNBC delay, the 6-month miss in timeline on initial readout for TNBC data, its ripple effects on other areas of the company's operations (e.g., reduced leverage for partnership negotiations), and the general lack of an explanation for the delay to date.
Given that CYDY stated initial readout would occur during Q1 2019 on November 26, 2018 (i.e., less than 8 months ago), and they're now looking to be 6+ months behind on that, I believe shareholders are owed some explanation.
I also believe RP, as CMO and officer in charge of cancer, should be the one delivering that explanation. I've twice expressed those concerns to IR and received no response to date, which I find a bit unusual given IR's apparent track record of responsiveness to other inquiries.
I've got no problem with a trial taking 1 year from announcement to initial readout - that's biotech - but I do get frustrated when expectations are set and then missed.
Especially when those misses cost me money!
GLTU as always!
https://www.cytodyn.com/newsroom/press-releases/detail/301/cytodyn-announces-initiation-of-metastatic-triple-negative
(PR references initial readout during Q1 2019)
Thanks IndexGuy, the sentiment is mutual. I believe that CYDY may have originally expected to leverage positive cancer data from the TNBC trial into a better HIV deal (i.e., cancer data would generate multiple suitors/leverage where it didn't exist previously). That is what I would have been attempting anyway.
The TNBC delay is especially costly when you look at it from that vantage point. GLTU as always.
Not nonsense at all. Reasonable speculation. We are in the dark about much right now, and it's a little uncomfortable. Let's hope the silence portends a bright future (and soon).
GLTU.
Interesting perspective. Welcome to the board. Don't post much here anymore (too much nonsense), but I still follow along from home, so to speak.
I am quite long here. My belief has always been that, despite whatever shortcomings management might have (and the extent of those shortcomings isn't clear, as we have imperfect information), money can be made at these levels (and perhaps quite a bit of it).
I would be interested to know more why you believe that management should have taken $1B+ some time ago. Particularly, interested to know what time frame you refer to (i.e., before or after RP and cancer came into the picture). Not arguing, genuinely curious.
My belief has also been that, if management took 1B+ some time ago, it likely wouldn't have had the shot at cancer that it has now (if they could get the TNBC trial underway). Also, I believe that, once cancer came into the picture, a $1B+ deal wasn't feasible given the cancer potential (and other indications science continues to uncover for CCR5).
My concern is that management may be trying too hard to get the best deal possible, instead of taking a deal on HIV (for example), even one that is suboptimal, in order to fund cancer, GVHD, etc.
I might have preferred taking down a suboptimal HIV deal, cleaning up financing, then going after cancer with finances unfettered. But, again, imperfect information on my end. And management may have different goals/timeframes than I have in mind!
Different perspectives are always welcome, so please continue to post and otherwise tune out the noise on this board.
My thought on this is that, yes, the FDA is fickle, but one of the "sins of the past" that CYDY continues to pay for is failing to do a dose-escalation phase in the original PI/PII combo trial.
To the extent NP was involved in the protocol, that is on him.
I am quite long here, no basher, but, as Dirty Harry says, a man's got to know his limitations.
We all have them, and so does NP.
On the topic of RP, it's been my belief for some time that he needs to be in front of the shareholders explaining the TNBC delay ... yesterday.
He is the Vice-Chairman of the Board, CMO, and is specifically tasked with the company's cancer undertakings. He's being paid $600K.
I am sure (and hope!) he is incredibly busy with company business, but I imagine he can spare 5-10 minutes for a Skype interview.
I've written to IR to state as much, but I'm not holding my breath for anything meaningful.
Welcome to the board and to ihub! Quite the first post ever on ihub. Do keep them coming, because this board needs insightful posts.
Thanks Suvorov. Let's just hope you were actually WRONG this time on your $0.30 call, and not just EARLY as you were with your $0.40 call (which I again congratulate you for being correct on).
They have previously stated 4-5 months from first injection (I took this to mean 4-5 months to get interim results from the first patients FOLLOWING the dose escalation phase).
However, they have also previously stated that, with good results in first 5 patients, they will apply for BTD. Presumably, if those results are good enough, they would be PR'd.
So, how long until we know something? I think it largely depends on whether and how effective leronlimab is in TNBC at 350 mg and 525 mg dose.
That's a very specific bet, SB. It's clear you weren't born yesterday.
I heard it as "every $10M that comes in, we save you 30 million shares of dilution"
I did not hear it as him saying HOW MUCH had been raised.
RE: volume ... I expect everyone who is interested in CYDY is waiting on the TO results.
Thanks for the kind words. As always, GLTU.
Absolutely, always happy to chime in. I agree with you that it appears insane to think CYDY wouldn't accept a multi-billion BO offer when sitting at $0.40 with a market cap of less than $150M.
I do believe CYDY has that sort of valuation potential, based on indications and sheer math (market size * penetration rate * pricing, for multiple indications in HIV, cancer, GvHD, etc., less royalties, add a reasonable PE multiple).
However, I do not believe it will happen overnight, nor do I believe that any BP would offer CYDY a seemingly ridiculous sum (e.g., $6B) while we trade at $0.40.
Rather, I expect it to be a PROCESS (and not an event) for CYDY to recognize that sort of valuation. I expect and hope that some combination of cash in the bank (via TO, prostate licensing, etc.), BLA acceptance/approval, TNBC results, and other catalysts might finally push this above a dollar.
From there, my hope is continued good news RE: mono trial, combo approval and revenue generation, etc. might push this to a place where it can organically uplist and get the exposure (and institutional investors) that I believe will ultimately result in CYDY being valued efficiently.
Until then, the most I would expect to see happen "overnight", as you put it, is about what you expect as well ($1.50). Would love to be wrong!
GLTU.
FWIW, Grip, I didn't read misiu's post that way at all. I took it as more of a hypothetical, in the context of the conversation regarding the unique situation CYDY is in re: valuation.
I don't think misiu has inside information or is full of it. I think she was simply making the point, as many of us have, that, paradoxically, what may constitute an acceptable BO offer to CYDY's board has likely increased over the past several years (due to more indications, certainty re: HIV, etc.) even as the SP has declined (due to dilution) over the past several years.
I took her statement to mean there may come a day when Gilead et. al. regret not buying CYDY for 6B (or pick your number) when they had the chance. In other words, I think misiu's point was it likely will cost BP more to play NOW than it would have several years ago.
The disconnect between potential valuation and current SP is what makes this investment so interesting!
GLTU as always.
Congrats. I didn't tender any warrants, as I am not a Paulson investor (unfortunately).
Open market position here.
No worries. It doesn't really matter. All just in fun while we wait!
Apologies if this has already been clarified, but I think we should be clear on one thing for purposes of this list:
Are we talking GROSS proceeds to CYDY or NET? I imagine there will be at least a 10% difference between the two numbers.
For what it's worth, my two cents is that these bets should be GROSS proceeds (i.e., the participation percentage for warrant holders), which is really the variable here.
Exactly. In a vacuum anyway (i.e., ignoring tax considerations, transaction costs, and other higher-level analysis), selling 2 shares at $0.40 to buy three shares for $0.80 is a no-brainer. Plenty of people are doing that and will continue to do so until June 12th (or whenever the TO actually expires, if it is extended).
I think the low end of your estimate is probably low based on what I am hearing, but the high end of your estimate matches my expectations.
My sincerest hope in all of this is that they do not extend the TO, but it certainly is possible (and they have done so before with the last TO).
Thanks. If I heard right, NP's expectation is it may be several months to finalize the mono protocol and commence the pivotal Phase III trial.
Anyone else hear the same? Not really concerned. I just want to set my expectations accordingly.
This is a fun game. Identify the pessimist!
My hope for the TO is 25M. My expectation is 15M.
(I live by "if you don't expect too much, you won't be let down")
Great reference. Noted.
was about to ask the same question. Yes, audio quality is so poor it might as well be nonexistent.
It's like you can read my mind. I am situated almost identically.
That is absolutely the plan.
LM, my take on CYDY at this time is that I am not sure how RIGHT I am about CYDY's potential upside, but I am reasonably certain that I can't be but so WRONG, at this point, regarding the potential downside of this investment over the medium term.
My expectation is that there is well over a 90% change of approval in HIV combination therapy. That being the case, even if all else fails, CYDY would have a viable product to sell into a captive (if limited) market. Based on that, I expect CYDY will generate enough revenue, over the next 2 years, sufficient to support a market cap resulting in a share price AT LEAST somewhere near my current average (.515), even if further dilution were to be required to get there from here.
It's my belief in the lack of potential downside (both in probability and degree) that makes me willing to extend myself to an uncomfortable position in this investment in order to take advantage of the frankly absurd potential upside available from mono HIV/cancer/etc.
Good luck to us all!
Once again, similarly situated.
Well, we are all going to be either quite miserable or quite rich. My money (literally) is on the latter. I am not quite where you and LM are, but my purchases this morning brought me to around 350,000 (all open market). If/when it happens, it should be one hell of a party.
My sincere thanks for supporting CYDY and sharing your thoughts.
I had no warrants to tender, but I did add another 10% to my position this morning. This is now the largest single investment (personal residence aside) that I own.
I sympathize with your nervousness but share your belief that this will be lucrative. At this point, I believe it's simply a question of degree and timing.
I heard that 5/31 was a possibility but not a certainty and there may be just one closing.
Would love to get an 8K after hours or Monday morning updating on the TO progress though.
Great analogy.
Let's hope so, chump. It's past time for this ride to get exciting!
Lawman, thanks for sharing. That is an excellent, balanced summary of where I believe things stand. I agree with everything you wrote. Although I am not down on management to the degree you are, I do agree that, if looking at science, management, and finances, the last two are the current question marks here.
Your first point resonates the most with me. When doubt creeps into MY head, I have always turned to #1 on your list for reassurance. Pestell is clearly a brilliant man, and my assumption (which I don't believe is unreasonable) is that he would not have joined CYDY for stock without doing extensive due diligence. I assume he did that diligence and decided that there were no obstacles, including management and/or finances, that couldn't be overcome in time.
Good luck to you, and thanks for supporting CYDY.
If I had warrants, I would be doing the same. Unfortunately, I don't QUITE meet the technical definition of accredited investor - yet, but I am betting my investment in CYDY is ultimately going to change that.
Yes, Zuess, quite old school.
Generally speaking, an offer can always be rescinded/revoked until it is accepted.
I would also note that any Paulson seller selling at these prices is selling at a loss and would be repurchasing the same security within 30 days. No tax expert, but that seems like a wash sale (loss disallowed) unless there is an exception to the wash sale rule of which I am not aware.
Hadn't seen it, but thanks for sharing.