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1. Let's remember that NWOG is usually not in a rush to inform their shareholders about anything. That’s why comparison to other, more opened, companies could be not that accurate. What if they had been working on AIM listing for some time when posted that September PR? OTOH, choice of adviser-broker (nomad) is so important that I’d think they have to tell the World about this. Tethys said it could take “a couple of months” from there. Remember, AIM listing is not just bureaucratic procedure. Nomad is kind of responsible for company’s pricing and performance in London. As part of preparation process, they will audit NWOG’s finances, visit offices and production sites in Russia, etc. Takes time…
2. <<what if this goes to .09 per share in january>> This sounds like “horror scenario”. I almost doubled my position last week and would rather see 0.9 per share. :) OTOH, based on TA and comparing price of “new diluted NDOL” to “old NDOL” – my worst case nightmare scenario: bottoming at $0.1- 0.12. It seems ridiculous and impossible… but I keep some money, just in case - to average down there.
3. The theory that we are not going to see anything until June, 2007, when insiders’ restrictions expire, sounds logical, but… Wouldn’t it be wise to start gradually improving PPS well before this deadline, and make the major hit when it’s time? I mean, they need to bring army of buyers for their shares (now restricted). They will need to support the proper price level for the long time to get rid of excess. This requires time. So, (I am talking to Mr. Malyshev now :) ) give us something in October – November, but not too much because good news will likely to be offset by EOY tax selling. Start hitting hard at the end of December. Move PPS “through the roof” in 2007. This is my expectations…
IMO.
Based on Tethys Petroleum schedule I see it takes ~ 6 months. Add 6 months to September, 2006 you will get estimated March, 2007.
Another recent example:
June 29, 2006:
“CanArgo Energy Corp. on Wednesday said that its 100% owned subsidiary, Tethys Petroleum Investments Limited, is planning to seek admission to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange and raise funds for its development and exploration activities in Kazakhstan.”
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=33629
October 5, 2006:
“Tethys Petroleum, an independent upstream energy firm active in Kazakhstan, aims to raise up to $40 million when it floats on London's Alternative Investment Market." "We're not quite ready yet but it should be in the next couple of months," Robson said of the AIM offering. ODL Securities is acting as a principal broker on the transaction.”
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061005:MTFH26602_2....
So, they have selected nomad already, and still need “couple of months”. Counting from the end of June it would be about 6 months total.
NWOG’s PR about “AIM Listing Process” was issued September, 13:
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060913/0162745.html
So, we will start trading in London sometime in March, 2007. Maybe a little earlier but not this year – we don’t have nomad yet. Of course, one can argue that NWOG is almost there and just doesn’t bother to inform investors about the progress… which could be true, of course.
Well, I'd like to thank MMs for not hurting me. :) Everybody makes stupid mistakes sometimes, so, I placed limit order for 30,000 shares @ 0.135 - forgot a zero! First, I was surprised to see 0.018 execution, then I realized what happened...
I was sitting on 0.013 bid the whole day - never executed. I bet that "lucky person" was MM, and he probably sold by the end of the day.
I did read that Carlyle article yesterday, but didn’t pay enough attention, because knew nothing about them. Thanks for the second notice. :) Now I am puzzled. It’s obvious that there is some kind of informal agreement (“warm feelings”) between Carlyle Group and NWOG. Both sides confirmed plans for future: Carlyle is ready to buy NWOG Saratov’s oil for distribution in Europe, they may finance some other projects - may even participate in this Syria deal (just guess)… Oil transportation and processing is one of their main interests (Belgium refinery, bid for Transpetrol, etc.).
Something is strange about this “friendship”, though:
Carlyle Group = Bush family + CIA + accusations of Syria in hiding Iraq’s WMD + Khodorkovsky as adviser + Yukos related conflict with Russia;
NWOG = Russian Government + RF Defense Ministry + Big Syrian Project+ Russian support of Syria;
If they are controlled by governments, what is the common ground for doing business together? Especially in cases that officially declared as “having political significance”… Makes me believe, that, unless Syria does something really stupid (like attacking Israel), US will tolerate Damask and try to use it to balance Iranian influence on the Middle East.
<<The warrants for .7 cents is very accurate.>>
You mean 0.07, right? Something always happens to zeroes. :)
I don't have any problems with your predictions - everybody can believe them or ignore... As to “reliable sources for AURC” – they are on record with $0.07/sh dilution claim, remember? Hard test to pass. :)
Now, let's talk about today's 0.21 for NDOL. :)
euddoggwyn,
interesting find on Saratovneftegeofizika activity in Tajikistan! I did see that they have contracts in neighboring Kazakhstan… but Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan – sounds like World wide expansion. :)
http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/centrasia.pdf
I was looking at yesterday’s news about big Libyan tender:
http://www.upi.com/Energy/view.php?StoryID=20061004-032733-7461r
and realized that I, actually, expect/hope to see NWOG name among bidders. The Libyan firm received 70 applications worldwide, “has selected 45 companies and two consortia, including Russian state-controlled Gazprom and Russia's Tatneft and Lukoil Overseas, a subsidiary of Russian oil major Lukoil, to bid in its third licensing round since it reopened to foreign investment”. Maybe Nizami Piriev can win this one too?
<<If they're scamming us, they're at least smart enough to concoct one whale of a tale…>>
For me, there is no question that NWOG is for real, has a big future, and will join Russian oil giants soon (or will be acquired before this happens). The question is: how much of this bright and wealthy future they are going to share with us - poor US pinky investors? And all I am asking for is just $2.17/sh. :)
Thanks, NYC guy!
Sorry I don't have PM privileges. So, for possible ways to go to London see my posts 17648, 17854. Pure speculation, based on similar experience of other companies.
“Nord Oil International (Other OTC:NDOL.PK - News) announced that it has changed its name to North West Oil Group as provided in the merger agreement.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060918/0164002.html
OK, let’s look at the “merger agreement”:
“North-West Oil Group will own 59% of the newly created entity to be renamed the Northwest Oil Group.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060510/0128234.html
So, we are renamed to… what? North-West Oil Group? Northwest Oil Group? Those are definitely different companies. The same NWOG can't own 59% of itself.
Of course, I hope you are right: this is just accidental confusion caused by poor English of Russian interpreter. :)
Syria deal makes NWOG automatically eligible for AIM listing (IMO). I don’t want to dive into political stuff, but possible problems with US authorities regarding Syria could be additional reason for NWOG to move from US markets completely (as I speculated before). This deal is supported by European and Arab banks, insured in UAE, will have stamp of approval from Russian Government – their place is in Europe, where they will be respected and valued properly. Again, the same question: who is applying for AIM listing – NDOL/NWOG? entire NWOG? or there is no difference from now on?
Right or wrong, but being in "informational vacuum" I use the same criteria to determine whether this is “our news”. Sale of Surgut-7 definitely had nothing to do with NDOL. They are closing NWOG-MOL branch and parent company is getting all proceeds. Another question that they may decide to use this money for NWOG/NDOL acquisitions, or (my major hope) quietly extend reverse merger to the entire NWOG. We did had Udmurtneft/Oil India or Magma PRs (that has nothing to do with Saratov) posted under NDOL ticker.
As to Syria news… I am still waiting for PR. :)
Two random but interesting facts:
- some Russian sources post recent information about NWOG-Syria deal under the title: “RF Defense Ministry will develop Syria’s oil sector”: http://www.rosinvest.com/news/231129/ like if Defense Ministry has already approved the deal. Nothing really new in contents, but still interesting;
- it appears that NWOG has access to very big sources of financing. I always believed $350 mln for Magma was a huge amount for them that would require JV partner. But according to http://assoneft.ru/press/press.html?id=680 when bidding for Udmurtneft, NWOG was able to pay only $1.5 bln (with “b”!). That’s why they had to find Oil India to increase the bid. For “only $1.5 bln” they can acquire a lot of assets. I am ready for the promised “chain of PRs” :)
P.S. Don't open the links! They are in Russian and posted just to show that I am not making this up. :)
Enjoy your trip, Joe!
This is really a good news. Thanks! Now they could start a procedure of moving to higher exchange. It would help the share price.
One word of caution to balance my “cheerleading” post: until we know for sure current NWOG structure and NDOL’s role in it (Saratov branch or something more?) – it’s not 100% clear how this new development benefits US shareholders. That would be my first question to Julia if I ever had a chance to talk to her (tried a few times). One indirect indication would be if they post this as PR under NDOL ticker. But, anyway, directly or indirectly – we are on the right track. Sorry for this grain of salt. :)
IMO.
euddoggwyn,
<<#148 on this link>>
I may look at this in details later, when I have time, but on the first glance it looks like OOO "Evrostroy" is just another company that shares office building with NWOG-Saratov... no business relations, as far as I can see. Evrostroy (Euro + Construction) is very popular name for companies that supply materials for apartments owners (a-la Home Depot), but on the first search I don't see any particular information on this one.
leebret,
don't take it personally, but this is the most ignorant post I have seen for awhile. There are two links in message you are responding to, that back up this statement. Have you tried to read them? Did you read my post at all? It's just amazing how the person, who never contributed anything to the board, is trying to judge work of other people. Just because you own some NDOL shares, doesn't mean that anybody has to serve you and follow your understanding of "right way" to post.
Don't try to respond, you are ignored now. My bet - I won't lose anything... and don't take it personally. :)
Thank you, cmzio.
This is my short essay on topic :)
The way it works everywhere, especially in Russia, where connections are everything: small unknown company “Creditline” with ~ $400 (!) capital (10,000 roubles) wins $3,575 bln contract guaranteed by Syrian government.
http://www.ashng.ru/news/tek/page4/0000004992/
Creditline has nothing except mysterious connections of it’s owner Nizami Piriev with Syrian authorities. Of course, from the first minute they start looking for someone who can actually execute the contract. The main requirement – this “someone” has to have support of Russian Government. Without such a support the contract is dead. This is the level of Foreign Policy and inter-State relations. The fact that NWOG has managed to take this deal speaks for itself. This is a major test for NWOG. If they are really well connected (which always was my educated guess/assumption) – this is HUGE!
I don’t have much time to look at this until weekend, so I would ask somebody to translate this article (Creditline -Syria part) and post it here. Conditions of contract are really exciting:
1. Syria’s export is 250,000 brl of oil daily. New refinery will get 140,000 brl of this.
2. Profit sharing: first 10 years Syria – 15%, refinery – the rest. Next 5 years: Syria 30%. Next five years: 45%. Then – 60%. In 25 years Syria takes the project completely. According to today’s news 63% of “the rest” belong to NWOG. In 6 years all expenses will be returned, and refinery becomes a cash machine. Financing of the project was resolved by Creditline. Some European and Arab banks are involved. Project is insured, and special company was created for this purpose in UAE.
3. Piriev owns another company in Uzbekistan – “Stroytransgaz” which is the main partner of GAZPROM there, and already performs some other projects in Syria.
4. In March one of the Russian Oil majors Tatneft (LSE, and recently NYSE, listed) considered as the most probable partner of Creditline. NWOG took this place.
http://www.derrick.ru/index.php?f=n&id=8732
The only reason I am not getting too excited (yet) – there is a slight chance that in a couple of years NWOG will re-sell this deal to somebody else. I am a little bit suspicious after their sale of Surgut-7. Still a great deal, however. Other than that… this is HUGE (did I use this technical term already? :), which is just my opinion, of course.
It was mentioned as "Info from seller's side" in my first post
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13716226
and with reference to Sibir ever since. Does this mean that it was posted "as a fact"?
BTW, I don't take it personally and don't have any problems with your questions. It's just very time consuming and isn't worth efforts. I think many posters will think twice before they tell us anything in a future. Discussing just company's PRs, information that was officially confirmed, is not my idea of a message board.
IMO.
<<They already have the broker agreement.>>
Do you mean they have chosen nomad already (on AIM broker and nomad is usually the same company)? This would be a very important information to know. Thanks.
I didn’t know IHub has 15 posts limit for “free” posters. Using my last post today to make it completely clear:
1. I think NDOL is a buy here and, at least, 5-bagger.
2. We are OK with reserves but need to increase production numbers before going to London.
3. Magma is very quick but very expensive way to reach those production numbers. $350 mln is too much (IMO). Solid buyers dropped their bids when they heard the price.
4. If NWOG is going to be acquired anytime soon, they don’t need Magma – extra ballast (debt, dilution, etc.). If they plan to grow independently for 2-3 years more, they do need to increase Saratov production fast (100% growth was promised) and acquire additional producing assets.
5. I am not selling but, being long, don’t feel myself obligated to post only rosy messages. You don’t need to idolize company to invest in it. As everybody else, I am dreaming about $2+ buyout offer, but my lowest estimates (posted earlier) are $0.5-0.9. I don’t know where the bottom is, but (IMO) if you decide to stay invested - keep your average below those numbers. Otherwise, you could be disappointed when all this is over.
Holding my relatively new NDOL position (re-entered in 0.30s, current average ~ 0.23) and feel pretty comfortable.
P.S. “EIK claim” is: I received that e-mail from Sibir Energy and posted the text w/o changes”. What exactly could be refuted? And, btw, I don’t see any “scandal” here.
IMO.
Yes, nobody even called me a basher (unless I missed this). :)
What scares me, though, - I didn't consider this such a negative news when I posted this. Board's aggressive reaction means that if/when NWOG confirms this, we may see some sell off. I know you disagree, but I still think this stock is at least 5-bagger from here, so, holding my shares. NWOG really needs better production numbers to go to AIM, but in any buyout scenario the company is even more attractive to buyers w/o Magma ballast. IMO.
Well, now I am tired. Hopefully, “Supreme Court” (Brent) is considering this case right now. I am out before I start shooting back. :)
I believe this is from the link on their website. It actually took a chain of "forwards" on their side to respond. I didn't disclose any names or business e-mails from that chain.
information@sibirenergy.com
Thanks.
I'll contact you tonight.
You can now remove it. :)
Brent,
I want to join Joe's request. Could you give us your "junk email address" that we, "free members" can contact you. I have problems on NDOL board, and don't want to disclose my personal information, sources in Sibir Energy, etc. I am sure you will be able to handle this in a way that doesn't hurt anybody.
Thanks,
Gene.
The lesson I learned from this discussion: next time I will forward e-mails like this to Brent and let him deal with the board. :)
P.S. I did contact NWOG (phone calls, emails in English and Russian), Oil India, MOL, etc. before. Never got any response.
Actually, I hesitated to post it because I expected reaction like this. Personally, I read this kind of information from other posters with interest, and it's up to me to decide whether I trust it. BTW, if you need "legal proof" I can send you screen shot of that email with attributes of responsible persons in Sibir Energy.
Anyway, I don't mind this thread to be deleted... whatever.
<<I believe that's your claim isn't it?>>
leebret,
are you questioning the reality of email, or my conclusions that based on the text? I guarantee the first. As to the second, how would you interpret it?
I sent request, I received response (today). I am going to read NWOG's PRs carefully tonight when I get home. It's my impression that they never said that the deal is completed.
What is "written confirmation"? I posted text of email from Sibir in post # 18064. This is my only source.
I am trying not to jump to the conclusions. I really thought that NWOG was going to pay too much... But they do need better production numbers to get "right price" in London (see estimates I posted earlier).
I contacted Sibir Energy:
"Earlier this year Sibir solicited bids for Magma, but has decided for the time being not to sell this asset. NWOG participated in the bidding process, however Sibir does not, nor has it ever had, an agreement with NWOG to sell Magma."
Info from seller's side: NWOG is not buying Magma anytime soon… nobody is. Sibir Energy decided “for the time being” not to sell this asset.
IMO: NWOG doesn’t need Magma itself. NWOG needs to increase production numbers. Magma was overpriced anyway - $350mln for declining asset that was priced $200mln, when Sibir used it as collateral in 2005. Probably NWOG will find better use for this money - acquire something else and double Saratov production as planned.
FWIW.
Last week it was discussed in Russian press that MOL is about to close purchase of NWOG stake in NWOG-MOL. They will create a new company “MOL-Russ”, based on this branch, and are going to expand operations in Russia: http://www.oilru.com/news/33798/ .
I think closing of this sale will be the topic of the next PR from NWOG. Hopefully, it will be combined with some hints where they plan to put this money, AIM, etc.