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Welcome back! Hope you had a great vacation! I just can't get over how under the radar this continues to be both in the retail and hedge fund worlds. I agree it kinda looks and feels like a bottom is forming, but I wouldn't mind a little spark of some kind to help move it up. Good luck!
Thanks for the positive feedback janeyH.......
I was just having fun. I get it, and Profound Medical has Profoundly confused me. I don't know what is going on. Hardly any volume and hardly any news. Problem now is that we need 100% gain to make up for the 50% depreciation in price. Still have faith it's a long term win, but can't help but think I could be making some change in other opportunities. If they could just give me something........for now, I continue to hold. Good luck Janey!
I know right, no posts on this board in forever, what is going on? Everyone on vacation?
Yep....
Missed call and won't be able to listen for a day or two. Anything material discussed? Thanks!
Let's hope.
Agree pressure is needed. With nothing going on, we are forced to start speculating. PPS goes up, we speculate good things. PPS goes down, we speculate negative things. Ex. If going up in this environment, I would speculate a quiet period during a buyout or merger talks. Since its going down, I am starting to speculate that maybe more trials and long term data is needed for full market acceptance or that insurance coverage for the procedure is not progressing well. But all we know is what we know. And we don't know what we don't know. 1 good thing is I haven't seen any downgrade from RJ.....but that is not much. I hate hoping, but I am now forced to HOPE for an earning surprise either in the way of revenue or an event related disclosure. I should be buying more at these levels.....just need a reason! Still going core. GL
Thanks for taking the initiative to ask.. Did they provide an answer or just not respond? I have never engaged their PR department myself. Would be interesting to see what their strategy actually is? Are they purposely flying under the radar? Almost no option activity along with their light volume.
Yeah, I really don't get it. Their PR department acts like an S&P 100 company. Lots of news is not PR'd, just the really big material stuff. But Profound is a small sub $500M MC in its infancy. All news good news is material and needs PR'd and helps get eyeballs on the company. I just don't understand their inability to positively engage the public domain.
Well, on the bright side, I haven't seen a downgrade so maybe they have no negative news. If something fundamentally changed in RJ's mind, in theory, the analyst would downgrade. Downgrading now is kinda late to the game is it not? Basically what I am saying is that RJ has spoke with a buy recommendation. No analyst reiterates monthly and their last report wasn't too terribly long ago. Until something new comes out, the buy recommendation stands and that actually gives me some comfort in an otherwise quiet and bad technical trend.
So I am not crazy? Cause I feel kind of crazy seeing things broadcast on their Twitter feed that I had no idea about.
So, maybe I am just old, but I don't put much attention to social media....but I checked out Profounds Twitter for first time. IMO, they have a lot of stuff on there that is PR worthy. Sorry if this is a rehash of other posts I haven't read
https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfoundMedical
Could be. I agree volume is really light. Usually there is a more aggressive swing to the downside to take out stop losses if they are attempting to get retail out and cheapies for them, but anything is possible. I kinda thought it was more like the company is a little stale right now with no PR, volume is always light, and no major catalysts coming up to speak of and we are just seeing a slow decline as investors look for more exciting/higher near term gain opportunities. Regardless, we are stuck to wonder with no real info. I like that the company isn't a pump machine, BUT, we need some kind of news about what is going on. Good luck to you J!
What's going on here? I don't sweat fluctuations but this slow bleed seems like an open wound right now? I thought I saw something positive forming last week, I guess maybe a headfake. The thing is, it is at a point I would typically buy more, just wish the company would give me a reason to do so. Are they expanding or not? Company says yes, but where is the proof? I remain bullish, but would really like some company news to reinforce that sentiment. GL.
Just watched the presentation and I agree. Never seen a presentation with an emotional real life experience testimonial from a CEO at this level. Sure, CEO's will talk about using the cars they make or the cell phones they make and so on. But an emotional testimonial about a relatively new medical procedure - new to me and very encouraging. Agree, roll out has a few question marks. Let's hope over delivery of expectations. I am a little confused by the reimbursement, but I have no expertise here. Kinda thought this would be wrapped up by now, and on an earlier call I thought they said they were using an existing code for reimbursement? If no CMC code and reimbursement until mid 2022, could be slower organic sales growth from existing machines out. Still love the company, hoping within 12 months we have more locations, more exposure, and insurance reimbursement wrapped up. Good luck to all.
Thanks for posting
Those under $18's should be really good to you! Don't sweat buying the absolute lows or selling at the absolute highs. I agree that $30 is realistic projection......now if we could only agree in BABYF....LOL. Good luck Janie!
I totally agree. But I also think if they did report Q1, they would disappoint big time. That's not a negative statement about the company, just what I believe. We got a ton of Q1 PR's about distribution agreements and how many shelves this will be on which builds expectations, but that takes at least some time. I personally would be more interested in Q1 expenses to see how much it cost to get going and how much cash is on hand. 2H 2021 will be key to determine if Else has the demand we are expecting for their product. Still long term bullish, but I too would like to see how those financials are looking. Good luck!
Still holding, still long term bullish.... haven't yet pulled the trigger on more though.....I may have missed an opportunity there. GL
Disappointed. Expected more revenue and less OS. Like the company long term, but disappointed today.
Thanks Hayfarmer! I thought I saw that somewhere.
I thought I saw something about RJ reiterating at $36? Not sure if CN or USD and not sure if it came out today or is old news, but I did see it somewhere today and if it did come out today, may explain the uptick in an otherwise down market (Dogecoin not withstanding). Regarding I will take it. Good luck to you my friend.
Good email. I too have been in Profound for a couple years. Started buying prfmf I think it was? Management is experienced and has said from the beginning it was going to be a slow/steady roll out, but your point is one I hope they address. While still (at least in my uneducated experience) a superior product, it seems their market share is being threatened but more heavily marketed procedures. Addressing the competition and their strategy to overcome will be key to positive investor sentiment. As high as I was/am on this company, this slow death by a thousand paper cuts is getting annoying. Basically, I was really excited about this company, now I am hoping they give me something on the call to reignite that excitement. Still long. Good luck to you!
Probably will come out after earnings and either reiterate or offer a new rating.
You are right and I should have been clearer. Thanks Janie! And I am (almost) always careful : ) Good luck!
I actually don't disagree, but do see the potential here. Are we early, maybe. The formula market is pretty big:
According to a research study, the global Infant Formula Market was estimated at USD 57.12 Billion in 2019 and is expected to reach USD 110.26 Billion by 2026. The global Infant Formula Market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8% from 2019 to 2027
I totally get this is not apples to apples, but does show potential if Else can become a disruptor in this market. And healthier lifestyles is growing now more than ever.
So, while I agree with you to a point, I think the opportunity is huge and I want a piece of the pie if this is the company that takes off. Good luck Janie!
I agree. And I did add last week. I want to buy more after the PR. It got me pumped and I am as bullish as ever.....my heart is saying buy buy buy. My brain, however, is saying be cautious cause as positive as the PR was yesterday, I still have no real idea what the sales are, how the product is really being received by the public, how much all of this expansion is costing, or how much cash do they still have on hand. They clearly have more exposure, which is great. And 20% monthly increase sounds great, but 20% of what? I am not being a bear. I love this concept and their business expansion/marketing approach seems solid. I am not trying to be negative....I sincerely, and I mean that, hope someone on this board has this info that I can't seem to find. In fact, not buying is probably a mistake....LOL. Okay, screw it, I will buy a few more, but until I see what this growth vs expenses actually is, I will remain cautious. Good luck to all!
Yeah, it picked up today, but even with a more than double of the 10 day average, it isn't much. With that said, there aren't a lot of shares so it is hard to really tell. With no real news, it could be good or bad. I kinda feel like we are in limbo a little. Ultimately, I think the product is top in the industry. Time will tell, but I still like the company. And, this company never really seems to pump anything. They are positive for sure, but don't pump every installation or things like that. I like that, but sometimes I wish they would be a little more bullish with their pr's. Just my opinion. I still have my full long position. Considering adding at some point. Bullish long term. Good luck to you.
The company has been very quiet. Maybe we get something substantial in the next quarterly earnings call coming up in a couple weeks.
I liked this company and took a small position about a year ago adding a few along the way including some last week. While I really do like the company, I am being cautious. Hard to gauge without updated financials.....unless I missed something somewhere. My assumption is that they are burning a lot of cash with all the distribution and manufacturing. Sales are surely growing but it takes time and money to bring a new product to market. I am really looking forward to Q1 2022. These concerns are all near term, not long term......and I should add, I don't know if these concerns are even valid. I love the product and think this could be huge......but I need a little more financial information to take a more substantial position. I agree marketing should be a focus, and I think they should focus on getting uplisted along with their product launch. Very bullish long term. Good luck!
Been long 4 years and will stay long, but not blind to the reality that there is a bear and a bull case here.
FDA says they want more info from manufacturer and a manual study to make sure right amount of defencath is extracted from viles. Without a CC we are left to guess what that means. My assumption is the manufacturer didn't provide a strong enough case that their control procedures are in place to ensure proper vile fill up. So FDA says prove you are putting the right amount in each vile and then prove there is a back up by ensuring the proper amount is extracted for use so we are sure the manufacturer isn't shorting or overfilling viles.
Just my guess.
My thoughts:
1. Easy fix for sure
2. Easy doesn't mean quick. It takes 45 days just to schedule a meeting.
3. That April meeting is REALLY important. There is a chance CRMD will need to remedy the issues and then file a new NDA. This is worst case scenario. That get us to Q4 2021 / Q1 2022.
4. Best case is Q3 2021. Without a whole new NDA filing.
5. Capitol Raise..... probably not, but they really like that ATM. IF a new NDA is needed, that is bad! They would need money. This is where investors struggle. When a company says they have enough money for 1 year, they need to raise pretty quick. Can't run the bank account to zero.
4. I am figuring in about a 10% dilution now into my own spreadsheet I keep by Q1 2022.
5. The bulls have had control of the price the past few weeks, now control appears to be with day traders. If control move to bears, look out.
6. $8-9 is a good buy in my opinion, but would not be surprised if it goes down more.
7. I am thinking short term (1-6) month bear case and long term bull case as of this minute. CRMD management can change my opinion with a simple conference call.....but the lack of a call signals a lack of a plan.
8. Then again, I could be full of crap and they fix everything in 2 months and we are off to the races......this would be fantastic! Still long, will buy more at some point.
Final note from me:. Really disappointed with the company. They took their time with the excuse of crossing all t's and dotting all I's yet here we are. These are my opinions only.
Not really surprised. Being a long time holder, it was pretty obvious a raise of some kind was coming. Sure they had cash on hand to get to Q2 2021 or whatever it was they said on their last call, but they all say that and you can't run the bank account to zero. Timing of the offering is somewhat unknown, but I think relatively soon and is definitely up for debate regarding what timeline is best. Do it after FDA approval and kill momentum putting shorts in the driver's seat, or right before FDA approval, take the 20%-25% hit to 5 or even 4.75, allow the shorts to load up, then announce FDA approval, get your bounce with the added bonus of a short squeeze. And maybe drive it to 7.5 or 8.... maybe higher if a squeeze does happen? I don't have a clue what they are thinking, but at least this isn't an Elliot sweetheart deal or a double warrant laden crap deal from what I can see. This does feel a little different than past raises and I for one am hopeful.....not bullish enough to recommend a buy, but bullish enough to hold and possibly buy more........And no, I am not an apologist for this company or management, just trying to understand leaving emotion on the sidelines. Good luck!
I think it's an over reaction to this.
https://newsfilter.io/a/c59663a176e01e70d4283f66f1a35189
It is still posted on Profounds website under the webinars section. It was in late March.
Thanks Ezzra! Good news indeed.
I hear ya. Below is just my opinion: I am not sharing your concern but completely understand your thought process. I find it very difficult when dealing with a macro market event with broad global economic sell offs to put into perspective the specific ramifications for a nanocap medical device company pre cash flow positive stage. The markets are shook and seem to be pocketing gains and shaving risk. In a time like this, cash is King. This may be over and it may continue. On Friday, some valuations got to a point where some money came back in.....PROF wasn't one of those companies.....but they were in the majority. I wouldn't criticize anyone who took profits or shaved some risk but this is a time where if you want to own a riskier play, you better know what you own. I feel like I know PROF very well and am confident in this investment. I will be a buyer once I think everything is shaken out. We may be there already, but I am personally not so sure. But Apple and disney at 20x or less, SPG at 18x and a 6% dividend, Tesla more than $300 off their highs, heck you could just get into an S&P 500 hedge that got hammered and probably get 10% before YE. I am not recommending any of those, just saying a lot of the big money have opportunities. We will see how this shakes out, but nothing in my opinion has changed on the long term outlook of PROF. I have no intention of selling PROF here....I would buy here but in full transparency I don't intend to buy until I feel a little more confident the macro event is over or close to it. Just my opinions and I have a small brain so take my opinion with a grain of salt.