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So the rhetoric was good and I found a lot of good in what he said. But I tend to put more weight on the numbers and less on the rhetoric, and the numbers were weak. Only 1.19M in the quarter for Tulsa. The other $900k was for capital sales of Sonolleve (sorry I am sure I spelled that wrong). What was really weird about the call (which I only caught the first half) was that they were very bullish on Sonolleve and ho hum on Tulsa. It really seems like they have not one, but a few strong growth opportunities.....but ultimately, I found Tulsa to be relatively underwhelming. Now they admit they got room to grow with insurance and medicare/medicade reimburses and such. Basically, I still see the potential, but I gotta see some numbers to prove it.
10 day average volume is less than 10k. Not a ton of conviction if someone is loading up for good results. With that said, imagine if we do get good results and good volume. This could really pop. I hope you are right......you usually are : )
Yeah, saw that. Good news for sure. Hoping we can finally get past that FDA hurdle and we are golden
I think you are both right. From a macro standpoint, both are in the trendy healthy food category and if the boys at the top faulter, big money investors lose confidence in the broader market and you get pull back accross all. With that said, Else has differenciators to somewhat shield it. 1. It does not have hardly any tute investors so it may not follow the trend line as drastically as others in the category - up or down. 2. It's in its infancy and can drive its own path with "prove it" sales. 3. They are also in the baby food category with its own macro events.....parents want healthier food, baby formula shortage, etc. So, I think your both right but at this stage BYND won't affect it that bad which is (believe it or not) a bad thing because we don't have the tutes to play the macro game.....but if BYND continues to struggle, it could somewhat slow tute money if/when Else gets to that point in their company growth.
This is good news for sure. I don't have the data to back this up, but it seems like a long time between purchase order to fully operational site. Regardless, if they can get to 25 sites doing 3 procedures each week x roughly $5,000 per procedure, we get to roughly $5M/qtr. All rounded numbers. These aren't where I wanted to be at this stage but does at least warrant a little higher valuation than where we are at. Slow and steady with these guys....
I am in the same boat. Only have about 1/3 of original investment I have held onto. Haven't started buying again yet.
This volume though. If we get a 500,000 volume day (which really isn't a lot) could drive the price to $20 or down to $2.
Does anyone know this company exists? <8k volume today. 10 day average volume <18k.
Thanks. I am with you on this, I want it to be successful. I was merely stating numbers as reported on their quarterly disclosures. I have many holdings, I don't love any of them. They all have pros and cons. IMO Else does a great job keeping operational expenses low. They clearly run a tight ship. They have an outstanding R&D department and have developed what appears to be a superior product with a healthy pipeline. They seem to be aggressive at opening up new markets and distribution points. These are all good things and why I am still here Downside, they haven't effectively informed the consumer about their current products. Sales have been weak even for secondary products. And I am worried about their cash position considering growth projections and future aspirations. And I hear you on the Hong Kong guy, but he isn't just going to give them cash for nothing. He will want a peice of the pie, and based on our current market cap, it will be a big piece.
I think a partner will be required to help see this through. This isn't a bad thing! I am in the camp that it will turn around, but the negatives I mentioned will help me understand how much exposure I want here. I would assume you base your exposure on your DD and that is great! Hopefully we all win in the end. I wish you much success!
I get your point and understand your stance. I am simply saying they don't have a load to blow whether with current secondary products or future infant formula.
Regarding your comment: " sorry to say there are disgruntled people that take no responsibility for their trading decisions....and continue to complain about the same thing every day.."
1. I literally said it was my error in my post you responded to.
2. I have posted on this board maybe 3 times the last 2 months.
Regardless, I wish nothing but the best for you and I hope it pans out and we all do well.
I still like the R&D and the product, but I am in your camp here. I have been frustrated with sales and marketing performance. I wasn't expecting blockbuster numbers, but something that reflects the distribution growth they tout. But, the more I think about it, it is my own error - I should have done the math. I am not sure how you run a global sales, marketing and distribution operation not even including R&D with $18.5M (March 31, 2022) in the bank? They need a ridiculous amount of capital to properly capitalize on their product and various distribution channels. Basically, they need a partner, to sell, borrow a ton of cash or dillute into oblivion. Am I missing something here? Just their cost of goods =70% of sales. Do the math, ALL of their cash doesn't equal much sales. The cost of goods should come down with scale, but with limited cash on hand, how could we expect much else? Maybe they have partner or investment fund capital raising plans with baby formula approval? All I know is that the extra 7M isn't enough. Still hoping they figure it out cause the product has great potential.
How exciting!
Agreed.
They lose over half their Market Cap to raise 7M bucks.... crazy.
Wonder what's going on here. Kinda like the quiet board but I do wish they would give us something to chat about. The investor presentations I have listened to seem like rehashed info. Hopefully they are working their plan and it is going smoothly. Most importantly, I hope their new installations are on pace or ahead of schedule followed closely by increased adoption, clarity on insurance reimbursement, positive procedure/patient/doctor feedback and positive results from ongoing trials. Anyways, hope all is well with anyone still here.
Good luck!
If they do have 25 like their last presentation said, which could be the 18 + unlisted, we could see strong revenue growth. Might push $20M a year sooner than we thought (assuming we get about 3 procedures per week per unit). And that is still relatively light market penetration. I hate to assume but that is all we got. With that said, to get to a decent valuation they have a long way to go, but finally seeing progress is great! Good luck to you.
They project 11M in 2022 and Q 1 already in the books at 1.4M which indicated RJ thinks big Q over Q jumps this year. And $25m projection next year should get us close to break even, maybe even a little profitable. Expenses will grow as revenue grows so not making any bold predictions here. Still think has big potential.
Agree. Granted, this dropped more than I anticipated, the current upward momentum is a positive sign.
I think the order is: Flirtation preceds volume, volume preceds price, price precedes pain.
Looking at volume, I think insiders are the only buyers.....
Profound Medical Clarifies Recent Insider Buying
TORONTO, May 18, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In response to investor inquiries regarding insider trading activity, particularly with respect to recent open market stock purchases made by certain of its insiders, Profound Medical Corp. (NASDAQ:PROF; TSX:PRN) (“Profound” or the “Company”) today provided the following clarifications.
“The Company does not currently file on domestic forms with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including Form 4: Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership, through which many U.S.-based investors monitor insider transactions, and as a result, some of our shareholders have raised questions about recent third-party reports that were presumably based on filings made with Canada’s System for Electronic Disclosure by Insiders, or SEDI,” said Arun Menawat, Profound’s CEO and Chairman. “After our first quarter 2022 blackout period was lifted, Brian Ellacott, our Independent Lead Director, and I purchased additional Company stock on Nasdaq at a combined cost of approximately US$763,000. Those transactions are summarized below.”
Brian Ellacott: Purchased 50,000 shares on May 12, 2022, at a price of US$7.05 per share. Mr. Ellacott now holds 68,000 Profound shares.
Arun Menawat: Purchased 30,516 shares on May 12, 2022, and 30,000 shares on May 13, 2022, at a price per share of US$6.6548 and US$6.9235, respectively. Dr. Menawat now holds 408,796 Profound shares.
This information is being provided solely to assist the Company’s shareholders in the present circumstances, and Profound does not intend to issue further press releases regarding insider transactions.
These conferences are usually non-event pump PR's for companies that ultimately have no impact. With that said, this latest conference PR seems to have some teeth to it and seems like some positives actually may come out of it. Usually, the PR's are about a conference a company will be attending, not how successful the conference was.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628808/000117184322003782/exh_991.htm
This is the kind of revenue I was expecting Q1 2021. Hopefully we see explosive growth with the new installations and more widely accepted adoption of TULSA. We need it to grow like 500%+. I know it seems crazy, but it's really not. I am not saying it will grow 500%......I am saying we need to see that kind of growth. Just my opinion.
Agree to all. Regarding PPS not reflecting growth, Profound gonna have to prove it with revenue now more so than anything else. Maybe they went to market to fast or maybe COVID played a large role, but ultimately, they are now generating revenue and the market will use that as an indicator for future growth and it hasn't shown enough yet in terms of volume or growth to justify a big jump. This is really a big year for them to prove themselves in my opinion.
There presentation, updated in May 2022 seems to imply they already have about 25 sites open and about 15 additional purchase orders for new sites. I may be drawing the wrong conclusion but it says they have an estimated 25 sites offering TULSA in Q1 2022 and about 15 purchase orders. May is past Q1, so I would hope their "estimate" is pretty solid. Also says they either applied or are applying for insurance code in 2022. Maybe this is the year of strong growth we expected. Only need 200% growth to get is back to close to their highs.....LOL
Good luck to you!
https://profoundmedical.com/wp-content/plugins/wp-pdf-viewer/web/viewer-shortcode.php?file=https://profoundmedical.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Profound-Corporate-May-2022-.pdf&download=false&print=false&fullscreen=true&share=true&zoom=false&open=false&logo=false&pagenav=false&find=false#locale=en-US&page=&zoom=auto
Please let me know next time you plan to take some off the table.......been looking for any kind of buy signal here that I can find.
It's nice to see a little pop. Volume is still really low, but nice to see buys at the ask instead of the bid for a change.
Sure is.....
Or losing shelf space....
As am I. Look, they are on shelves with multiple other companies in this space. None of these other companies are marketing themselves like "Buy our baby/toddler food because it's pretty good and your kids might like the taste and it's healthy.... I mean not as healthy as some others, but not too shabby either". These are well funded brand recognizable companies and they all say they are healthy and they all say kids love the taste. Else, in my opinion, has a superior product, but if no one knows it, it doesn't matter. Just saying, putting it on a shelf in a really big store doesn't matter. It just means they are next to more products with louder voices than theirs. Actually, I think the distribution growth is outpacing the sales growth. Would need to run numbers on that. But as an example, if distribution grows from 1,000 stores to 2,000 stores, you would expect sales to grow at a minimum of 100%+. Hope I am wrong here cause that's not good.
Still though, I do think they figure it out.
Good luck.
Worth noting: in 2021 Else spent $6.5M in marketing according to their filing. This is a REALLY small number. I get start ups need to be cash conscious, but they gotta find a way.
Using information they provided being 1.2 units sold per week at sprouts x average ticket price of $36 = $43.20 sold per week at Sprout stores x 52 weeks = $2,246.40 annual sales at each Sprout store.
Assuming 1 unit is 1 can. Assuming Sprouts is selling in store at $36. Not including future sales growth. This is a gross figure and not representative of actual Else revenue generation from said sales.
I have 3 women in my office with toddlers.... none have heard of Else. All are healthy eaters. Gotta get the word out, create brand recognition, push for customer acquisition, and provide a product that results in customer loyalty/retention.
The product speaks for itself, but does no good if no one can hear it.
Still betting they figure it out. GL all.
Nice....
True statement. Hard to argue that selling 1 can of toddler formula per week at each Sprouts store is anything more than dissapointing. 1.2 cans to be exact. Still holding betting they figure the marketing out. Good luck!
Glad your still with me. I didn't listen to the last call either, but I remember the call before (or before that) when they mentioned not all installations would be on their website due to some kind of issue with hospitals not wanting their name on other sites or something like that. Which actually makes sense because I deal with that a lot in my day job. Maybe we split the difference here and go more towards the bottom line? The main issue comes down to proving to the market this is a profitable venture. Without installations, can't make money. Without insurance, cannot maximize usage of installations. Basically......LET'S freaking GO! I feel like we are stuck in the mud. I wish you much luck and success.
Well, not sure what to make of this anymore. I really misjudged how far it would drop. I was thinking of buying more around 15.....sure glad I didn't pull the trigger. Still holding a small core. I still believe once insurance reimbursement is finalized this can really take off, but I have yet to really understand where they are at or what kind of definitve date we are looking at for this to occur. And I am losing confidence in my ability to understand this company.....LOL. Dissapointed here but holding on.
Not sure it will move the needle, but this is good news and could assist in a wider adoption of TULSA PRO.
https://newsfilter.io/a/04c03c5b76888035d869bd1133ccf99f
Hey Hayfarmer - Hope your new year is off to a great start. I agree with you on the new guy. I am starting to think this could be an even longer hold though. Until insurance is totally straightened out, probably won't grow as quickly as we would like. Also, and this is purely speculative on my part, but I fear some medical facilities may want to see more proof of concept. All initial studies are great, even to the extent they have approval to do the procedure, but Are some hospitals/doctors waiting for 5yr / 10 yr follow up data? Maybe I am just being negative. Still holding core and if this dips much more I will probably even add. Just trying to understand how we are where we are and where we are going. Good luck to you!
Still here. Just holding core. Not paying to much attention day to day on this one anymore......not great investing advice... lol. I still believe in this long term, but yeesh......
I am not a day trader and I was disappointed with the sales. I still remain confident in the company and the future, but I expected greater quarter over quarter growth. Started buying around .50 cents US (maybe less would have to check) have added several times over the past 2 years or so. Haven't sold a share and will probably add more, but was disappointed none the less. And no, I wasn't expecting it to be a billion dollar company overnight, but just looking at how many distribution points they currently have, I assumed stronger growth. Just my opinion and not being negative. I wish everyone good luck and hopefully stronger quarters ahead!
I don't think you missed anything cause they never give us anything to miss. I am not even sure what catalysts we are waiting on anymore. Getting insurance codes? More installs? Higher revenues? These guys are more quiet than my teenage boys were at sneaking in late at night. I still have my core, but not paying a ton of attention because their isn't anything to pay attention to.....