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I don't want the misconception that I want this company to fail. To the contrary, I really like the product and it's perceived benefits - especially to children who have a lactose issue being able to get the nutrients they need in a healthy way. Just saying, this deal is the kind of deal that looks good on paper, but it only works if the pps increases significantly, and it might. But in my limited experience, these lenders are sharks with intent to basically own the company for peanuts. They prey on small and nano cap companies with capital concerns with what seems like a loan with bullish intentions for the company. In actuality, they short for a cheaper conversion price without much risk due to the conversion shares they will acquire. The good news is BABYF has some time. I hope they can repay the majority back prior to conversion date and see sales growth with pps increases to thwart any kind of major attack. My assumption right now is that retail is loading up thinking capital concerns are over. They kinda are, but more risks are now involved. I honestly do hope for the best here and it will remain on my watch list as I no longer have a position.
It kinda had to cool down a little, no?
Agree. This could be disastrous. I was a part of one of these also. The stock got shorted into oblivion right up and until the conversion date, I suspect by the same company who did the initial financing. Not saying this will be the case, just saying I have had no luck with this type of financing. Short term may be okay though as retail investors think they got money concerns out the way. And it might work if the business really takes off next 24 months. Based on their spend, should have about a year of capital available now.
Kicking myself I didn't buy more over the past 2 months. Glad I chose to stand pat and not sell for a tax loss. I really thought we'd bounce back at a slower pace through 2023. Stinks that my vision is only 20/80 while my Hindsight is 20/20.
Agree. I have always thought is was in the DNA of management to build this up and sell it when the price is right. Don't see it in the near term, but my crystal ball has been malfunctioning lately.
Hard to say. Strong momentum over the past 2 weeks or so from sub $5 to now flirting with $9. Not showing weakness yet, but not really sure where this is coming from. I personally think the institutional investors here sold for a tax loss in November and are now buying their shares back. They also got another decent report again from RJ with a $15 PT. I was hoping you would know what is going on here. You sold around 8 or 9 and it dropped to under $5. I thought maybe you were buying back with all that cashola you're sitting on. ??
If interested in actual results, they finally posted Q3 filings on 12/7. Sorry if this was already discussed, not following super close. Ultimately, they have about $14M cash on hand and access to another $2M or so. 9 months sales at 6.1M vs cost of goods about 4.4M or 23% topline profit. 9 months operating loss of 14.7M, 4.9m in Q3. Balance Sheet shows about 26M in total assets. 112.6 O/S and roughly 170M fully dilluted. 45M of that is employee, key person, and founder stock options.
Interested subnote: On October 4, 2022, the Company issued an aggregate of 946,500 incentive stock options
to one consultant and employees of the Company.
Opinions:
1. Got about 6 months max before capital raise of some kind.
2. Doubt they partner cause CEO would have to give up some control/ownership %.
3. No acquisition cause currently, they have nothing to sell, unless it's someone not in the space wanting to enter the space. If this happens, they would get the company for peanuts.
4. Still on watch list. Good product, company not dead, but they have some tough decisions to make.
Janey, I know you sold, but are you keeping an eye here at all? I miss your witty and usually on point comments. You were right last time to sell....thinking of coming back to us with this momentum?
I am glad I held my core. Was really considering taking a tax loss about a month ago. Now I wish I bought more... LOL.
Already approaching 100% since the publication of that article.
All in all, I guess it's just another boring day here......LOL
Either works for me.
I agree that it is way undervalued, but they earned that small MC with their super slow rollout and lackluster sales. Hopefully, they start tapping the potential of their tech so we can get a decent payday. Recent movement is nice. Could see a solid 7 today or tomorrow if trend continues.
Can we keep this momentum? Let's hope so!
I hope you are right. I tend to think it is some institutions buying back some of their tax losses. What I am hearing (from TV so take that for what it is) is most institutions have completed their tax loss selling. Some will undoubtedly buy back to reestablish positions. I think that is what is going on. Purely speculative on my part
Well, glad they got a loan and are not raising capital at these levels. How low can we go here?
I did end up exiting all of my remaining position shortly after my last post. Was able to average close to .5 over a couple days. Had already shaved so not a huge position to liquidate. Took the tax loss. I want it known that I am bullish on the long term prospects here. Solid science, have done a good job opening distribution channels, and baby formula should be huge. I do plan to reenter at some point when I feel a little more comfortable with the financial situation.....no doubt I will miss it and be kicking myself. My stance could change overnight depending on news. I will keep a close eye on this one. Dillutive capital raising and easy shorting risk too high and too many warrants to restrict big gains in the short term. That said, those who remain and add may have a great upside opportunity if I am wrong, which seems like always....LOL. Good luck everyone.
Thanks
Could be. I am even thinking of taking a tax loss here and reentering Q1 of next year. These guys don't PR much so probably no pops between now and then.
That is a fair question. I am not trying to hurt the pps or give people reservations. I am certainly not a professional and I hope no one takes my opinion as anything more than it is. I was very bullish and now I am not. I feel like it is in bad faith for me to say I was bullish publicly and buying shares, but not say I am getting concerned with the risks and looking to reduce. I give an honest opinion. I would never just bash a stock or company. But I do feel like I misjudged some of the financial forecasts publicly and I am simply admitting it. I could be wrong and I hope everyone does there own DD. But I was making positive public statements about my outlook on this company and feel it would be in bad faith to not share my concerns. But make no mistake, I want everyone here and the company to succeed. I also encourage and would actually really like a rebuttal to my fiscal concerns. My occupation kinda makes me look past some things and get right into the numbers. If anyone sees it differently than what I see, I would really like to hear it.
My main concern here ties directly to your comment. Else cost of good is currently about 75% of revenue. That should decrease with scale, but for now, it is what it is. With operating expenses around $5M/quarter, they need to generate about $20M in quarterly sales to break even, but to hit $20M, operating expenses have to go up.....but let's leave it as is for now. They have so little cash, I see no other alternative but to raise capital or bring on a partner, and based on their fiscal position, I am not sure how either helps retail investors in the short term. If only internet sales, all other expenses decrease. I still like the product, but I feel like the risk is getting pretty high here. If we get a pop, I may look to close my remaining position and reopen sometime in the future. I really do like the product and possibilities here. I am not bearish on the company as a whole, I just can't see how they close this financial gap. This is based off of Q2 filings. I don't see where they have posted their q3 reports yet. (The full report, not the PR). If someone has a link, I would greatly appreciate. I generally find them on otcmarkets.com.
Yeah, RJ has been an advocate for quite a while. Current target represents big upside, but is well off their hugh mark target a couple years ago
Same.
Thanks for reminding me that I was holding this same stock at $15.......LOL. Been here 3 years or so. I actually sold quite a bit between $22 - $25 for a nice gain and kept a core.....and it has dropped ever since....but I still think this ends up most likely getting good traction and eventually sold. That's kinda been my thesis here based on current management's prior dealings. Still think that could happen. But need it back up to the $20's and hoping for a 2x from that buyout. Probably a few years away at this pace for that dream scenario
It is nice to see this little pop with volume well above recent averages although still light. I am long and think there is still potential here, especially at the current levels. I just wasn't enamored with the call yesterday.
They mentioned that most of their current installs are in more teaching and lower volume hospitals and they are currently going into more high volume locations that should increase sales. Mentioned insurance reimbursements holding some back, and it sounded like as more data comes in at longer term intervals since the procedure is collected will strengthen their case for wider adoption. The call was positive but also filled with softball questions. I think some tougher questions are required this far into the rollout. Just my opinion.
Sorry, but not really. Tried to listen at work but was one of those days.....I think they said they are up to about 35 installations by q1. The overall tone didn't really seem overly exciting. They are still high on the future and all, but with everything they were saying, all I was hearing was wait till next year.....They did say that with the 10m loan, no need to raise capital in the forseable future. I only caught pieces. People in and out of my office the whole freaking time!
Not impressed with PR. Hope they have good things to say.
I am really hoping for some positive news tomorrow with strong growth in the quarter. Yes, I want to heart about future installs and sales potential, but I feel it is even more important to show actual Q3 results. If we're only going to hear from these guys 4 times a year, it needs to be substantial. We have no momentum and PROF feels stagnant right now.
Hard to put value on PROF. The push to $30ish kinda showed the market believed in its potential, but a meandering slow roll out, lagging sales and a lot of ambiguity around reimbursements coupled with very little news to get excited about from management has left PROF seemingly forgotten about. Volume speaks volumes. Regarding being an acquisition target: I thought that 2 years ago, but not so much right now. If it was, why not buy on the open market now and get up to a 5 or 10% stake at these levels? All in all, I think the potential is still there, but I remain dissapointed at the moment. Hopefully we see increased adoption of our technology and substantial revenue increases in the next few quarters.
Never thought it would end up here. Very slow grinding plan and execution makes it hard to generate any excitement. There is no volume. Honestly do not know what to do with this right now. Gotta think it is at or near the bottom so why sell? But at this point, I may want the tax loss. I had a lot of faith in their management based on their past successes, but I am disappointed right now. And we are past the COVID excuse. They just need to execute. Could it be that we over estimated Tulsa's potential?
Your pps is tough to paper out with so many outstanding warrants and options. Going off memory, aren't we at like 60 or 65 million outstanding? What ultimately happens with those impacts the future if we approach these strike.
The China news is great. I just hope this is the PR that actually results in significant sales growth. 50% more of next to nothing is still next to nothing. I do remain optimistic and I get that baby formula is the big deal we are waiting for......but I am not getting excited about another huge market opportunity just yet. They have been on a ton of shelves for quite some time now. I will hold my core and wait for the actual numbers. And I do hope it turns out well and they stun us all with a yuge beat......but alas, I cannot get excited just yet. I wish nothing but the best for all and for Else. This news IS a big deal, but only if they can capitalize on it.
That would be a big step in the right direction for sure.
I think you might be light? 25 machines x 4 per week = 100 weekly procedures. 100 x13 weeks in quarter = 1,300 procedures x $8,500 each is more like $11M. But I will take half of that.
And today's PR, link below, indicates they could have up to 35 US based installations of TULSA by end of year. Seems bullish, but the PPS indicates otherwise. Still got a small core, but this has turned into a longer than anticipated pay day.
https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PROF/profound-medical-announces-changes-to-its-commercial-organization-to-e8o4jupl4u33.html
That's good news but gotta translate into revenue at some point. I thought it would be 3x at this point from what they are reporting.
Looks like a good move.....