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Yes, same person.
CECL expectations were always quoted from KB&W. I was clear there. “As expected,” as I clarified, was from the GSE 10-Qs as they approached CECL deadline.
Common is a “lottery ticket” when facing a ~$200 billion liquidation preference that the government can convert to common tomorrow.
I don’t use my real name because, my team likes to stay quiet unlike Ackman. Good reason for that. What’s your excuse, Wise Man?
Because understanding the legal contracts that will remain if the NWS is overturned is more important than platitudes.
No. Prejudgment interest in Texas Southern District (Judge Atlas) is ~5% (prime rate) and in Court of Claims (Judge Sweeney) is ~2% (T-rate). And it’s not required.
Treasury doesn't get they're 10% dividend?
Payments in excess of 10% dividend cannot reduce the liquidation preference while the commitment is outstanding. Read the contract.
Author of this article doesn't seem to realize that a majority of the 5th Circuit en banc judges thought that severing the removal clause was an appropriate remedy.
Severability is not a problem.
Courts will overturn NWS. $125b returned to GSEs but they owe Treasury $190-215 billion. See the problem now? Math.
Letter Agreement has $-for-$ increase in senior preferred shares for this capital. Treasury will get theirs, don't worry.
Nothing. That’s why new investors will require greater returns... at the expense of existing common shareholders who aren’t contributing any capital to recap.
No one. That’s the risk in dealing with government and their sponsored enterprises.
Treasury has been "stealing" for 11 years, what makes you think they'll give up the goods when they don't have to? Wake up.
100% of liquidation preference in shares is worth more than 79.9% of shares in warrants.
Conservator can unilaterally amend a two party contract between the GSEs and preferred shareholders? Don’t think so.
$125 billion will be returned but GSEs owe Treasury $190-215 billion depending on how you look at the liquidation preference.
And that’s BEFORE a capital raise!
Law won’t protect common shareholders from Treasury converting AT LEAST $40 billion of senior preferred into common.
Audio posted for Seila vs. CFPB in SCOTUS...
https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1235990640988696579?s=20
You really expect Treasury to "forgive" anything?
Come on.
Treasury also not "forgiving" anything. Senior preferred conversion to common is coming.
It's a status conference to discuss the stipulations on the motions to stay. What secret?
Don't know. 50/50.
Judge Sweeney only let one case go through... hoping that the Court of Appeals would help her out... if the other cases force her to make a decision, she'll probably grant government's motion to dismiss.
End of Washington Federal and any case hoping to challenge the entire conservatorship.
She responded via DM: "Yes, all in the January interview"
Sorry Guido... quotes from January.
https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1234972775888015371?s=20
Why is common tanking? Did one of the SCOTUS judges say something about GSE common shareholders?
Kavanaugh argued for severability of removal clause, not retrospective relief.
I don't know what Glen is citing, but I am fairly certain that it's just taking Nomura's price targets for re-IPO since Glen spends his days making $40K/hour relaxing on the beach and doesn't have time to waste on silly re-IPO models.
Nomura has 3.2bn shares at an offering price of $5 for Fannie and 2.0bn shares at an offering price of $4.50 for Freddie as part of a total
$60bn raise.
Ackman would double his money with common at $5.
Growth Fund isn't a plaitiff.
Neither have any real power in settlement talks and own enough preferred to do well in case common doesn't pan out the way they hoped... and it was just hoping.
I don't know what either of them have to do with it, to be honest. Government dictates the terms since plaintiffs left it wide open.
You need to hope that Treasury "forgives."
Where do you see that he's presenting?
It’s Nomura’s analysis.
Unclear.
He said this in January.
Last week, he talked about no windfall.
Who schools who and when?
Of course.
If you held common over the weekend, you need to get your head examined.
Judge Sweeney will send back $125 billion. Liquidation preference is currently at $215 billion. Need to forgive $90 billion. Sure.
How do you not know the difference between propose and finalize?
Brooke, my man, do you really think government is going to “forgive” anything?
FHFA getting ready for your LAWSUITS!!!
https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1233070761990119425?s=20
6% per year. Works out to 140%+ par.
Must read.
Among volumes and volumes of quality posts, this one stands out.
Well done (as usual).